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[W:#101]Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall

watsup

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No joke? That is how weather forecasting is done?

It was along the lines of 24 hours and it was wind sheer and further north. Last night the forecast started to change. Hey, I did not take time stamped notes. What I do know is that they blew the forecast as they always do.

Become a weatherman if you know so much. Which you don’t, because it’s ridiculous to criticize them as they do their best. Quit being a one trick pony.
 

noonereal

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Become a weatherman if you know so much. Which you don’t, because it’s ridiculous to criticize them as they do their best. Quit being a one trick pony.

Interesting. I simply stated a fact, that they blew the forecast. And you get all in my face? WTF is that about?
 

watsup

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Interesting. I simply stated a fact, that they blew the forecast. And you get all in my face? WTF is that about?

There are lots of “facts” in the world. I have to wonder why this particular one is so important to you? Weatherpeople “blow forecasts” all the time, but their accuracy overall is quite amazing, especially because they have computer predictions to aid them. What’s the big deal? You repeated it over and over. Let it drop.
 

noonereal

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There are lots of “facts” in the world. I have to wonder why this particular one is so important to you? Weatherpeople “blow forecasts” all the time, but their accuracy overall is quite amazing, especially because they have computer predictions to aid them. What’s the big deal? You repeated it over and over. Let it drop.

Important to me? Lol

You are the one who made a "thing" of it.

They blew the forecast, that is not on me. Why you are "sensative" about a mundane statement of fact has us all puzzled.
 

Trippy Trekker

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Mom has been pestering me to watch news show whether reports. She acts like I am a bad person if I don't care about the hurricane's path and unpredictability .I told her no every time because Gainesville is two hours away from Tampa and closer to the Atlantic Ocean than Gulf of Mexico. It is not that I don't care about people losing electricity, but when the weather is beautiful with low humidity or we get a little rain with no wind, it makes no sense for everyone to go crazy as if we lived in Pinellas County. Why is Alachua County making a big deal about a hurricane that is moving in the opposite direction?
I moved to Gainesville in 1964. In my experience, the distance from either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean reduce hurricanes to less than hurricane strength before impacting Gainesville.

Cedar Key (on the Gulf of Mexico) lies closer to Gainesville than any point on the Atlantic Ocean. Wealthy Gainesville families often purchase a 2nd home in either St. Augustine Beach or Crescent Beach, far more so, IMO, than Cedar Key.
 

Patriotic Voter

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I moved to Gainesville in 1964. In my experience, the distance from either the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean reduce hurricanes to less than hurricane strength before impacting Gainesville.

Cedar Key (on the Gulf of Mexico) lies closer to Gainesville than any point on the Atlantic Ocea

So Ian should be tropical storm strength the three days school is canceled here, right?

Wealthy Gainesville families often purchase a 2nd home in either St. Augustine Beach or Crescent Beach, far more so, IMO, than Cedar Key.

Where is Crescent Beach?
 

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So Ian should be tropical storm strength the three days school is canceled here, right?



Where is Crescent Beach?
I doubt you face even tropical storm strength winds. I think current projections have Ian crossing Florida south of Orlando, re-entering the Atlantic Ocean and heading northward toward the North Carolina coast.

St. Augustine Beach to Crescent Beach: go due south about 6 miles on A1A. If you haven’t already, I recommend you make a pleasure trip to St. Augustine. Besides the beaches and a State Park, lots to do in the Historic District. Head north to Vilano Beach and Ponte Vedra; head south to Crescent Beach.
 

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I doubt you face even tropical storm strength winds. I think current projections have Ian crossing Florida south of Orlando, re-entering the Atlantic Ocean and heading northward toward the North Carolina coast.

So there is no reason Alachua County Schools should be closed for three days and the trash truck should not come here tomorrow. No reason Five Guys should be closed when I wanted a cheeseburger. No reason theater and sports events should be canceled. If Ian is only a tropical depression, nothing bad will happen this week.
 

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So there is no reason Alachua County Schools should be closed for three days and the trash truck should not come here tomorrow. No reason Five Guys should be closed when I wanted a cheeseburger. No reason theater and sports events should be canceled. If Ian is only a tropical depression, nothing bad will happen this week.
Ha ha ha! Take that up with your local decision-makers. My wife announced earlier in the day, the Gator football game changed from Saturday to Sunday.

Back in the late 1970s, a storm came through Gainesville and the UF campus closed for a few days. My tax accounting professor, Dr. Boils, loved teaching so much, he scheduled a 4-hour make-up class on a Saturday. I chose not to attend.
 

watsup

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Important to me? Lol

You are the one who made a "thing" of it.

They blew the forecast, that is not on me. Why you are "sensative" about a mundane statement of fact has us all puzzled.

Key word in this post: “mundane”.
 

ClaraD

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P.S. this is not some hypothetical idea, I have seen it happen.
Hurricane Rita, was hyped to death, (literally, people died escaping), and while it was bad,
How Hurricane Rita anxiety led to the worst gridlock in Houston history

When Ike came calling, a lot more people decided to stay, and stayed in places that put them in grave danger.
84 people died in Ike in Texas.
Was Hurricane Harvey, Mitch or Hugo hyped? What about Katrina? Andrew ring a bell? Your nonsense is why people ****ing die
 
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ClaraD

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Mom has been pestering me to watch news show whether reports. She acts like I am a bad person if I don't care about the hurricane's path and unpredictability .I told her no every time because Gainesville is two hours away from Tampa and closer to the Atlantic Ocean than Gulf of Mexico. It is not that I don't care about people losing electricity, but when the weather is beautiful with low humidity or we get a little rain with no wind, it makes no sense for everyone to go crazy as if we lived in Pinellas County. Why is Alachua County making a big deal about a hurricane that is moving in the opposite direction?
Were you around for Andrew?
 

ClaraD

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Oh I am sure a doppler radar can detect wind speed, but saying that it may not say the coverage of that wind speed.
All we can see right now is the NOAA weather and tide station at Ft Myers.
Fort Myers, FL - Station ID: 8725520 and the storm surge is about 6 feet over the normal high tide,
and the sustained wind looks like it peaked at 42 knots with gusts at 69 knots.
Not the predicted 12 foot storm surge and 155 mph sustained wind.
Winds were 150 mph when it came ashore. It's a cat 1 now, but its moving into the Atlantic and going to rotate and take aim at Charleston, South Carolina....
 

ClaraD

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P.S. this is not some hypothetical idea, I have seen it happen.
Hurricane Rita, was hyped to death, (literally, people died escaping), and while it was bad,
How Hurricane Rita anxiety led to the worst gridlock in Houston history

When Ike came calling, a lot more people decided to stay, and stayed in places that put them in grave danger.
84 people died in Ike in Texas.
107 died in Harvey. I almost drowned leaving my townhouse in North Houston. A police officer drowned in his patrol car that same day
 

longview

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Was Hurricane Harvey, Mitch or Hugo hyped? What about Katrina? Andrew ring a bell? Your nonsense is why people ****ing die
I can speak to Harvey, it was a monster storm, but they forecaster said we should expect 50 inches of rain
over the weekend, and I had a measured 48 inches at my house, So I do not the the estimates were hyped.
 

longview

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107 died in Harvey. I almost drowned leaving my townhouse in North Houston. A police officer drowned in his patrol car that same day
But the amount of rain forecasted was accurate, they did not exaggerate it.
 

Peacenik

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Not only is this true, but we all know what the OP is talking about has been repeatedly proven for decades. It is why hurricanes have become more frequent every year.

Look/ at the hurricane names. Because of how hurricanes and typhoons are named (in alphabetical order, alternating genders), we Ian was the ninth tropical storm in 2022. When was the last time there were less than nine tropical storms before October?
I would take an exception on the 'more frequent every year.' Overall there do seem to be more, some years less, some years more, increasing over time. The biggest difference is they are getting stronger and can undergo this 'rapid intensification.'
 

Peacenik

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I can speak to Harvey, it was a monster storm, but they forecaster said we should expect 50 inches of rain
over the weekend, and I had a measured 48 inches at my house, So I do not the the estimates were hyped.
So 'they' don't 'blow it' every time.
 

longview

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So 'they' don't 'blow it' every time.
No, they have gotten very good at the rainfall expected from a storm, the formula
they have used for a half a century works well, 100/forward speed of the storm = how much rain to expect.
Harvey was moving at 2 mph so 50 inches. Ian was moving at 4 to 8 mph, so between 12 and 25 inches of rain.
 

ClaraD

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I can speak to Harvey, it was a monster storm, but they forecaster said we should expect 50 inches of rain
over the weekend, and I had a measured 48 inches at my house, So I do not the the estimates were hyped.
No, they weren't hyped, but they also did not expect it to spin and come ashore a second time.
 
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