[W:#101]Climate Change Rapidly Intensified Hurricane Ian Before Landfall

[Peacenik]

11AM National Hurricane Center 9-28-22:

"Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence. That data supported an intensity of
about 135 kt a few hours ago. Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold
of category 5 status. The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this
advisory."

Major Hurricane - Cat 4 - Almost a Cat 5.

155 mph winds.

"Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 18 feet above ground
level along with destructive waves are expected somewhere along the
southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita Beach,
including Charlotte Harbor. Residents in these areas should urgently
follow any evacuation orders in effect. "

The NHC indicators were projecting 120 mph last evening. The storm crossed climate change warmed waters of the Gulf of Mexico overnight and rapidly intensified into a category 4 Major Hurricane. It didn't have to be this bad, but human industrial activity over the last 120 years has put too much carbon dioxide in the air and caused global warming and warming of the seas. This causes hurricanes to be more intense. Ian is a prime example. Just like Katrina.

Hurricane Ian is quickly gaining monstrous strength as it moves over oceans partly heated up by climate change, just like 30 other Atlantic tropical storms since 2017 that became much more powerful in less than a day.

Climate Change is Helping to Rapidly Turbocharge Storms Like Hurricane Ian​

 

[PoS]

Where's your proof that more CO2 in the air is causing more hurricanes?

 

[watsup]

Where's your proof that more CO2 in the air is causing more hurricanes?

That’s not what he said. Read the article instead of spouting off.

 

[VySky]

The storm has nothing to do with global warming fiction. The GW cult is strong.

 

[Peacenik]

Where's your proof that more CO2 in the air is causing more hurricanes?

I said it caused rapid intensification. I didn't offer proof. That is my take on it. Shared by many.

The evidence is overwhelming.

Oh look. Here is a supporting article from a reputable main stream media source:

"After getting 67% stronger in less than 22 hours from Monday to Tuesday, Ian is bearing down on Florida as a likely Category 4 hurricane that threatens to deliver a nightmare storm-surge to Tampa Bay."

Time:

Climate Change is Helping to Rapidly Turbocharge Storms Like Hurricane Ian​

 

[Peacenik]

The storm has nothing to do with global warming fiction. The GW cult is strong.

You are entitled to your opinion, but I think it is incorrect. And so do most of the governments of the world.

 

[Peacenik]

Why should a threat to society have to be proven before anything should be done about it?

That makes no sense.

The wise thing to do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Not assume the best and demand proof of the worst. That is a ridiculous position to take.

 

[longview]

11AM National Hurricane Center 9-28-22:



Major Hurricane - Cat 4 - Almost a Cat 5.

155 mph winds.



The NHC indicators were projecting 120 mph last evening. The storm crossed climate change warmed waters of the Gulf of Mexico overnight and rapidly intensified into a category 4 Major Hurricane. It didn't have to be this bad, but human industrial activity over the last 120 years has put too much carbon dioxide in the air and caused global warming and warming of the seas. This causes hurricanes to be more intense. Ian is a prime example. Just like Katrina.

It is difficult to predict storm intensity and surge amounts.
Ian is currently doing something strange, the wind directly outside the eyewall is not as high as predicted.
This is NOAA's Fort Myers station The surge is there, but still inside the normal high tide range,
and the wind has not gotten over 40 knots yet. The center of Ian is about 40 miles from Ft Myers,
meaning the eyewall is only about 25 miles away, so the 155 mph winds must be confined to a small area just a few miles from the eyewall.
This could be very bad for the people in the dangerous area, but with a smaller dangerous path.

 

[PoS]

That’s not what he said. Read the article instead of spouting off.

He said so right here:

The NHC indicators were projecting 120 mph last evening. The storm crossed climate change warmed waters of the Gulf of Mexico overnight and rapidly intensified into a category 4 Major Hurricane. It didn't have to be this bad, but human industrial activity over the last 120 years has put too much carbon dioxide in the air and caused global warming and warming of the seas. This causes hurricanes to be more intense. Ian is a prime example. Just like Katrina.

Looks like Im not the one who doesnt know how to read.

I said it caused rapid intensification. I didn't offer proof. That is my take on it. Shared by many.

The evidence is overwhelming.

Oh look. Here is a supporting article from a reputable main stream media source:



Time:

Climate Change is Helping to Rapidly Turbocharge Storms Like Hurricane Ian​

BS article. No studies cited whatsoever.

Total fail.

 

[OrphanSlug]

That did not take long… it is becoming sad to see climate alarmism blame Hurricane Ian strength in Florida on global warming by appealing to similar logic that Franklin Graham used to suggest Hurricane Katrina was all about sexual perversion in New Orleans.

The wise thing to do is handle climate change via reasonable changes, not alarmism and sensationalism and even vilification masquerading as policy making.

 

[NatMorton]

It's important to remember that specific weather events can and do prove the most extreme elements of the theory of man-made global warming. It's also important remember that specific weather events can never be used to disprove elements of that theory because weather and climate are two very different things.

Hope that clears things up for everyone.

 

[noonereal]

Major Hurricane - Cat 4 - Almost a Cat 5.

155 mph winds.

This was a bad forecast. It was predicted to be a 4 that would drop to a 1 before hitting land because of wind shear. Now, holy hell. I saw South Florida after a 5, Andrew. This will be no joke. Prays.

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

 

[Peacenik]

It is difficult to predict storm intensity and surge amounts.
Ian is currently doing something strange, the wind directly outside the eyewall is not as high as predicted.
This is NOAA's Fort Myers station The surge is there, but still inside the normal high tide range,
and the wind has not gotten over 40 knots yet. The center of Ian is about 40 miles from Ft Myers,
meaning the eyewall is only about 25 miles away, so the 155 mph winds must be confined to a small area just a few miles from the eyewall.
This could be very bad for the people in the dangerous area, but with a smaller dangerous path.
View attachment 67415387

Let's hope the worst is confined to a smaller area. I do notice that the water level is way above the predicted level and rising rapidly.

Here is a radar site in Tampa, which clearly shows the storm. It appears that the eyewall has made landfall at Sanibel Island, which is probably getting very high water right now.

Klystron 9 Radar

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

He said so right here:


Looks like Im not the one who doesnt know how to read.


BS article. No studies cited whatsoever.

Total fail.

 

[Peacenik]

He said so right here:


Looks like Im not the one who doesnt know how to read.


BS article. No studies cited whatsoever.

Total fail.

What a weak argument. I am amazed that people still think there is no human caused climate change after what has been happening. All the droughts, increased wild fires, record setting high temperatures, glacier melting, changing weather patterns, dried up lakes, and on and on. One would have to think all of that is just made up to reject AGW.

The Colorado River no longer even reaches the sea.

 

[The AntiDonald]

Where's your proof that more CO2 in the air is causing more hurricanes?

He never said it was causing more hurricanes. He said it was causing stronger hurricanes and causing them to intensify much quicker.

 

[Peacenik]

That did not take long… it is becoming sad to see climate alarmism blame Hurricane Ian strength in Florida on global warming by appealing to similar logic that Franklin Graham used to suggest Hurricane Katrina was all about sexual perversion in New Orleans.

The wise thing to do is handle climate change via reasonable changes, not alarmism and sensationalism and even vilification masquerading as policy making.

There is nothing alarmist nor sensational about the OP. It is an observable cause-effect situation. Just making a point that sadly still needs to be made.

 

[PoS]

He never said it was causing more hurricanes. He said it was causing stronger hurricanes and causing them to intensify much quicker.

He did say it. Read post #9 and stop lying.

View attachment 67415392

What a weak argument. I am amazed that people still think there is no human caused climate change after what has been happening. All the droughts, increased wild fires, record setting high temperatures, glacier melting, changing weather patterns, dried up lakes, and on and on. One would have to think all of that is just made up to reject AGW.

The Colorado River no longer even reaches the sea.

LOL so everything is caused by humans? Let me guess, you also believe the dinosaurs went extinct because of human activity.

 

[Peacenik]

This was a bad forecast. It was predicted to be a 4 that would drop to a 1 before hitting land because of wind shear. Now, holy hell. I saw South Florida after a 5, Andrew. This will be no joke. Prays.

They are doing their best. Hurricane prediction is an inaccurate endeavor. Many times throughout the approach, statements were made that rapid intensification could occur, and that conditions were favorable for it. They were right. It was unfortunate that the predictions of yesterday made it appear the chances of that occurring had been lessened.

The intensity of Ian has increased by 30 kt during the past 18 h.
Further rapid intensification (RI) is expected during the next 24-36
h as Ian crosses the high oceanic heat content of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea within a very low vertical wind shear (VWS)
environment.

Rapid Intensification

 

[SNOWFLAKE]

He did say it. Read post #9 and stop lying.


View attachment 67415393


LOL so everything is caused by humans? Let me guess, you also believe the dinosaurs went extinct because of human activity.

Do you EVER make anything other than childish comments? NO ONE has ever said EVERYTHING is caused by humans. This is such a lame and disingenuous argument it is laughable. You might think you are insulting our intelligence, but you need to re-read your posts and see how this looks on you. We will be fine.

 

[Peacenik]

He did say it. Read post #9 and stop lying.


View attachment 67415393


LOL so everything is caused by humans? Let me guess, you also believe the dinosaurs went extinct because of human activity.

If you try to make this about me I will not play that head game. Do you want to talk about climate change or not.

You will notice I have not attacked you personally, only your argument.

If you want to have a civil discussion that's fine. I am here for that.

If you want to try to make things personal because you have a weak argument that you believe needs to be augmented with insults, I will simply cease talking to you. I began this discussion to talk about climate change.

I have no interest in becoming an enabler for online abuse.

Support your argument without personal attacks.

That is what I am challenging you to do.

Can you?

 

[bomberfox]

Most recent radar output i could gather.
View attachment IMG_3711.MOV
View attachment IMG_3710.MOV

 

[longview]

Let's hope the worst is confined to a smaller area. I do notice that the water level is way above the predicted level and rising rapidly.

Here is a radar site in Tampa, which clearly shows the storm. It appears that the eyewall has made landfall at Sanibel Island, which is probably getting very high water right now.

Klystron 9 Radar

I am not seeing the high water levels, certainty not the 12 foot storm serge.
Here is the NOAA tide station at Ft Myers the tide is only about 1 foot above normal high tide, and the winds only broke 60 knots for a little while.

 

[noonereal]

Many times throughout the approach, statements were made that rapid intensification could occur, and that conditions were favorable for it.

They were not right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That was my point. Good ****in grief. That it would intensify was a late in the forecast call.
It was supposed to drop to a 1. Wind shear. I already said this.

My guess, you just started following this last night so have no idea how bad they blew this.