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538-Silver gave trump his best chance.
What sent me to bed early was the discussion of how the initial vote dump would be early voters who would favor Clinton.
Then, the rural vote would come in late and make the swing states closer.
As soon as FL, PA, and OH flipped, that was it for me.
Btw, 5 of the 6 flipped states had an incumbent GOP Senator who outpolled trump--reverse coattails .
Good morning NIMBY - what cinched it for me was watching CNN and John King saying that the polls in inner city Philadelphia and other major cities was way down in comparison to those in 2008 and 2012 for Obama. As he was saying that, Clinton had a lead of 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania and that dropped to the low teens and that said to me that, as you say, the rural and/or suburban vote was going Trump's way and he could overtake her in the end, which he did.
And, as you say, it wasn't particularly a vote for Trump as it was a rejection of Clinton by Obama voters, the independents and Republicans who supported him as a generational candidate. Way back when, when many were claiming that the Democrats would never lose the White House again because of changing demographics, I always felt that the uniqueness of Obama skewed the reality.