Trafalgar Chief Pollster Predicts Trump Victory, Claims Other Firms Are Reaching The Most Liberal, Conservative, and Bored

[beerftw]

Actually there is. I have participated several times in You gov...I do not see any political affiliation with them and they do not target only certain political groups.

Yougov actually has a history of being too far left in terms of it's methodology compared to actual results, yougov is like rasmeussen in that whatever it says for the left leaning candidate you can shave some poins off much like you would with rasmeussen for right wing politicians.

Despite being left leaning I will say yougov is alright in my book, they are very open about their methodology and they poll often, which is better because if yougov does 4 polls in the same period and they are 2-5 points different from eachother, there is an average with them, where other pollsters who release just one a week might have had bad polling and been unable to catch it, while yougov does indeed get it wrong which is why they tend to poll in batches.

So let's say they conduct 3 polls in a batch, one says biden plus 14, the other says biden plus eight, and the last biden plus 2, that would indicate major sampling errors, which can happen frequently, yougov likely polls frequently for this reason, to even out the polls and get a more general picture, and they do not hide their polls or methodology like many other pollsters do.

 

[beerftw]

View attachment 67301289
For reference, Trump favorite, Rasmussen scores a C+.

For reference 538 puts polsters with 50% or less accuracy in outcome higher ranking than rasmeussen, ibd and rasmeussen are near identical in terms of predicting outcome, yet one is high ranked the other is low ranked. If I remember the list correct 538 rankes a pollster who never got a single race right as high ranking.

Point is he ranks off accuracy and methodology, apparently if you look through the list methodology is the major factor while accuracy is an afterthought, otherwise if it went by accuracy rasmeussen would be fairly high on the list, and many of his a- on the list would be c-, indicating his rank system has almost nothing to do with how accurate pollsters are, but rather if they poll the way he wants them to, and he is never clear how he judges methodology.

Case and point fox news pollster listed as a- in your pic has a much lower accuracy rating than rasmeussen yet is rated as top tier, how he is rating pollsters would be like rating runners not by how fast they ran but by their choices in shoes.

 

[beerftw]

It's true regardless.

Trump may very well win. But to pretend that Trafalgar is reliable after they botched the midterms is laughable.

In all fairness many of these reputable pollsters botched 2014, infact 2014 was probably the worst year for pollsters, with many getting races across the board wrong often by double didgits.

Since 2012 it has been common for polls to be way off in one form or another, especially since we still consider live interview phone calls as the gold standard despite failing for nearly a decade. Polls had romney in a dead heat or even beating obama, come election day obama won by hefty margins, in 2014 many pollsters were predicting a blue wave, likely assuming 2012 turnout for obama would directly translate into midterm turnout, republicans got a red wave, and pollsters were off as far as 30 points that year.

In 2016 up until the final days hillary was shown to be ahead by a landslide, average of polling still put her well ahead of her popular vote and she ended up losing. 2018 democrats ended up outperforming polls, some said it was a blue wave, others said it would be a tight race, in 2018 democrats outperformed poll expectations by hefty margins.

Now we are in 2020, arguing again how polls can not be wrong going by the gold standard, despite the gold standard failing every time since 2012, and arguing the ones who shifted methodology in an attempt to handle the failures must not be trusted and the only way to get accurate polls is to do the same thing that keeps failing every time.

I hate to say this but it is not the old days, gallup and pew pretty much dropped out of polling in races, as well as many others due to the fact they failed so horribly. Granted groups like trafelgar may not be the best, but they are shifting to avoid past mistakes, while other pollsters are doubling down on them. I do not feel the gold standard applies anymore and even feel it should have ended in 2012, how people respond to polls have changed greatly in the last decade, and pollsters need to change with it instead of attacking anyone who tries to change with the times.

 

[ReubenSherr]

View attachment 67301289
For reference, Trump favorite, Rasmussen scores a C+.

You all are putting a lot of weight on one person’s opinion.

Nate Silver is one man. He is not God. Nor is he Isaac Newton.

And when he “rates” polling firms, he counts the 2016 presidential race equally to every other midterm Congressional race. We’ll see how accurate he is.

 

[ReubenSherr]

You don’t understand.
Reuben considers any poll with a healthy margin for Biden ‘partisan’, and any poll that looks good for Trump to be ‘independent’ and worthy of its own dedicated thread.

Delusional is one word for that. There are others.

Lol 3Goofs, you have no clue what you’re talking about.

Nearly all polling firms are partisan, including Trafalgar. If you are threatened by the existence of a Trafalgar thread, that is not a good sign for Biden. I have never seen so much whining in my life.

This will all be settled next week.

I will say that the overflowing crowds at the Trump events would support Trafalgar’s polling, as opposed to Quinnipiac.

As does the fact that more Republicans have voted early, in Michigan, than Democrats.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

Nearly all polling firms are partisan, including Trafalgar. If you are threatened by the existence of a Trafalgar thread, that is not a good sign for Biden. I have never seen so much whining in my life.

This is not a true statement.

 

[ReubenSherr]

This is not a true statement.

How many polling firms can you name not associated with liberal-leaning or conservative-leaning media outlets, liberal universities, or conservative clientele?

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

How many polling firms can you name not associated with liberal-leaning or conservative-leaning media outlets, liberal universities, or conservative clientele?

Polls associated with media outlets are not performed by those media outlets - they're done by contracted independent polling firms.

I know it helps you construct your narrative to believe that all polls you don't like are biased - but that's nothing but motivated reasoning.

There are explicitly partisan left-leaning pollsters - PPP is a good example - but you don't hear about them.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Polls associated with media outlets are not performed by those media outlets - they're done by contracted independent polling firms.

You are extremely naive. In terms of the degree of interaction between the media outlets and the polling firms with which they contract.

However, debating this to death has no point, seeing as how the election will take place in 9 days. And we will have a clear picture, at that point, regarding which polling firms have been more accurate.

One point that is important, is that many liberals seem to be offended by the existence of any thread which does not help their own candidate. And this is 100% consistent with the fact that most liberal media outlets refuse to even mention the Hunter Biden story.

Anyone who is comfortable with their own candidate, and their own politics, should not be threatened by the mention of a poll, or a news story, which benefits the opposing candidate.

I'm not referring to you here BTW.

 

[ReubenSherr]

I know it helps you construct your narrative to believe that all polls you don't like are biased

No matter how many times I state this, it doesn't seem to register.

Just because I create a thread which benefits Trump does not mean I believe the poll is unbiased.

Would you like me to create a thread about a Quinnipiac poll? You've got a dozen posters constantly posting threads concerning liberally biased polls. I don't see the point.

Bottom line, you should not be threatened by a little political balance. If you are comfortable with your own politics.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

You are extremely naive.

No, I'm not. But I know it must help you to believe it.

One point that is important, is that many liberals seem to be offended by the existence of any thread which does not help their own candidate. And this is 100% consistent with the fact that most liberal media outlets refuse to even mention the Hunter Biden story.

Anyone who is comfortable with their own candidate, and their own politics, should not be threatened by the mention of a poll, or a news sto

This is just more motivated reasoning on your part.

This is a message board. Arguing about politics is the whole point. I - just like everyone else here - enjoy being right.

When you start assigning motivations to other posters to help you feel better about having your arguments challenged, you're only deluding yourself.

We respond to your posts because you're so consistently wrong about polling, and you start threads every day to alternatingly hype polls that you like, and attack polls that you don't. This is entertainment.

 

[Threegoofs]

Lol 3Goofs, you have no clue what you’re talking about.

Nearly all polling firms are partisan, including Trafalgar. If you are threatened by the existence of a Trafalgar thread, that is not a good sign for Biden. I have never seen so much whining in my life.

This will all be settled next week.

I will say that the overflowing crowds at the Trump events would support Trafalgar’s polling, as opposed to Quinnipiac.

As does the fact that more Republicans have voted early, in Michigan, than Democrats.

All overflowing crowds at the grievance-fests show is that a good chunk of the US electorate are absolute idiots.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

No matter how many times I state this, it doesn't seem to register.

Just because I create a thread which benefits Trump does not mean I believe the poll is unbiased.

Would you like me to create a thread about a Quinnipiac poll? You've got a dozen posters constantly posting threads concerning liberally biased polls. I don't see the point.

Bottom line, you should not be threatened by a little political balance. If you are comfortable with your own politics.

I assure you, I have never in my life felt threatened by anything anyone has posted on a message board.

This is you assigning motivations and emotions to others to make you feel better.

 

[ReubenSherr]

We respond to your posts because you're so consistently wrong about polling, and you start threads every day to alternatingly hype polls that you like, and attack polls that you don't. This is entertainment.

Three points here:

(1)I don't know who you mean by "We". And honestly, I don't care lol. You have a tendency to use Marxist language, implying that somehow, conservatives secretly long for the approval of Biden supporters. Which is the most hysterical thing I've heard in my lifetime.

(2)In terms of who's "right" and who's "wrong" about polling, we'll find out in 9 days.

(3)The constant wiseass posts from liberal posters, reading "This is entertainment." "Lol, comedy gold!", reveals how insecure you all are about your opinions and your own politics. We'll see in 9 days if this helps you, or hurts you.

 

[ReubenSherr]

All overflowing crowds at the grievance-fests show is that a good chunk of the US electorate are absolute idiots.

Well, we're in the home stretch. Let's see what happens.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

Three points here:

(1)I don't know who you mean by "We". And honestly, I don't care lol. You have a tendency to use Marxist language, implying that somehow, conservatives secretly long for the approval of Biden supporters. Which is the most hysterical thing I've heard in my lifetime.

(2)In terms of who's "right" and who's "wrong" about polling, we'll find out in 9 days.

(3)The constant wiseass posts from liberal posters, reading "This is entertainment." "Lol, comedy gold!", reveals how insecure you all are about yourselves, and your own politics. We'll see in 9 days if this helps you, or hurts you.

1. When I say "we", I mean me, plus the other posters who've been in most of these threads saying the same things as me. If it makes you feel better, I'll only speak for myself.

2. No, I already know that I'm right about how polling works, and you are wrong. The only thing we will find out in 9 days is which polls were right, and which were wrong.

3. No. The only reason why anyone posts here is entertainment. Anyone who feels differently is delusional.

 

[beefheart]

How many polling firms can you name not associated with liberal-leaning or conservative-leaning media outlets, liberal universities, or conservative clientele?

Smells like desperation Reuben
.

 

[jpn]

"Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

And on November 4 he'll be busy peddling theories about why his analysis was actually correct but Biden won due to "extenuating circumstances."

 

[beefheart]

No, I'm not. But I know it must help you to believe it.



This is just more motivated reasoning on your part.

This is a message board. Arguing about politics is the whole point. I - just like everyone else here - enjoy being right.

When you start assigning motivations to other posters to help you feel better about having your arguments challenged, you're only deluding yourself.

We respond to your posts because you're so consistently wrong about polling, and you start threads every day to alternatingly hype polls that you like, and attack polls that you don't. This is entertainment.

Watching Reuben get it wrong and have a hussy fit is comedy gold. Rally Forge posting.

 

[post]

Robert Cahaly

Aren't you the busy beaver ?

Robert Cahaly - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[ReubenSherr]

And on November 4 he'll be busy peddling theories about why his analysis was actually correct but Biden won due to "extenuating circumstances."

That’s essentially the argument you all are making regarding Nate Silver, and the 2016 election cycle.

But we’ll see what happens.

 

[beefheart]

 

[RaleBulgarian]

For reference 538 puts polsters with 50% or less accuracy in outcome higher ranking than rasmeussen, ibd and rasmeussen are near identical in terms of predicting outcome, yet one is high ranked the other is low ranked. If I remember the list correct 538 rankes a pollster who never got a single race right as high ranking.

Point is he ranks off accuracy and methodology, apparently if you look through the list methodology is the major factor while accuracy is an afterthought, otherwise if it went by accuracy rasmeussen would be fairly high on the list, and many of his a- on the list would be c-, indicating his rank system has almost nothing to do with how accurate pollsters are, but rather if they poll the way he wants them to, and he is never clear how he judges methodology.

Case and point fox news pollster listed as a- in your pic has a much lower accuracy rating than rasmeussen yet is rated as top tier, how he is rating pollsters would be like rating runners not by how fast they ran but by their choices in shoes.

Reference?

 

[RaleBulgarian]

You all are putting a lot of weight on one person’s opinion.

Nate Silver is one man. He is not God. Nor is he Isaac Newton.

And when he “rates” polling firms, he counts the 2016 presidential race equally to every other midterm Congressional race. We’ll see how accurate he is.

Does Silver cite year old polls as recent?

 

[BrotherFease]

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

I absolutely love cherries. Cherry pies. Cherry soda. Someday I'll learn to tie a cherry stem in my mouth.

NATIONAL POLLS
2020 - Biden +8%
2016 - Clinton +2.6%