Trafalgar Chief Pollster Predicts Trump Victory, Claims Other Firms Are Reaching The Most Liberal, Conservative, and Bored

[ReubenSherr]

Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls ‘predominantly missing the hidden vote’

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a “hidden vote” Cahaly says is predominantl…

thehill.com

"Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes."

Why does Cahaly claim that he is reaching an accurate slice of America, while most other pollsters are not?

https://radio.foxnews.com/2020/10/2...-explains-the-methodology-behind-their-polls/

"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.

 

[PoliSciXtina]

Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls ‘predominantly missing the hidden vote’

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a “hidden vote” Cahaly says is predominantl…

thehill.com

"Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes."

Why does Cahaly claim that he is reaching an accurate slice of America, while most other pollsters are not?

https://radio.foxnews.com/2020/10/2...-explains-the-methodology-behind-their-polls/

"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.

Hey Reub What do you think of the latest IBD poll? I replied on your thread but you are ignoring a few of us. Shows Biden up by 6 today.

As far as trafalgar chief's, that's one guy's opinion. The current polling numbers don't really back up his opinion. But hey, we will soon find out.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Hey Reub What do you think of the latest IBD poll? I replied on your thread but you are ignoring a few of us. Shows Biden up by 6 today.

As far as trafalgar chief's, that's one guy's opinion. The current polling numbers don't really back up his opinion. But hey, we will soon find out.

This thread is about Trafalgar. Nice try.

And do not shorten my screen name.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

Trafalgar Polls are just noise meant to instill hope in Trump fans. Their methodology is "secret", therefore suspect - but it is clear that from all appearances, they are not a probability-based poll at all.

Robert Cahaly is a Republican strategist who got lucky in 2016, and failed horribly in 2018 - and that's the extent of Trafalgar's career as a public pollster.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Trafalgar Polls are just noise meant to instill hope in Trump fans. Their methodology is "secret", therefore suspect - but it is clear that from all appearances, they are not a probability-based poll at all.

Robert Cahaly is a Republican strategist who got lucky in 2016, and failed horribly in 2018 - and that's the extent of Trafalgar's career as a public pollster.

The argument, though, is that he didn't just "get lucky" in 2016.

He purposely uses shorter surveys in order to avoid reaching the most liberal, conservative, and bored, as he puts it. In other words, to reach the working class Trump voters in the political center.

Which would explain why he was spot on in 2016, but so far off in 2018, given that working class voters tend not to vote in Congressional midterm elections.

I'm not posting that he is necessarily 100% correct, but he has a legitimate point, the same one I've made in past threads. We'll see soon enough.

 

[azgreg]

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

The argument, though, is that he didn't just "get lucky" in 2016.

He purposely uses shorter surveys in order to avoid reaching the most liberal, conservative, and bored, as he puts it. In other words, to reach the working class Trump voters in the political center.

Which would explain why he was spot on in 2016, but so far off in 2018, given that working class voters tend not to vote in Congressional midterm elections.

I'm not posting that he is necessarily 100% correct, but he has a legitimate point, the same one I've made in past threads. We'll see soon enough.

The problem is is his methodology. We don't know what questions he asks, or who he asks. We don't know if he's using a random sample, or even just making up numbers off the top of his head.

 

[joko104]

The problem is is his methodology. We don't know what questions he asks, or who he asks. We don't know if he's using a random sample, or even just making up numbers off the top of his head.

We don't know that about any polls.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

We don't know that about any polls.

Yeah, we do. Pretty much every respectable polling company publishes their methodology and survey questions.

 

[Mr Person]

It's in several days. Chill. Wait. Enough with the ****ing polls.

 

[ReubenSherr]

The problem is is his methodology. We don't know what questions he asks, or who he asks. We don't know if he's using a random sample, or even just making up numbers off the top of his head.

We don’t know if any pollster is using a random sample, or if any pollster is making up numbers. Just because someone publishes their methodology doesn’t mean they aren’t manipulating who they recruit, or who they determine are likely voters, for example.

You have a point, though, about him not publishing his questions.

In any case, we’ll know soon enough how accurate Cahaly is.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

We don’t know if any pollster is using a random sample, or if any pollster is making up numbers. Just because someone publishes their methodology doesn’t mean they aren’t manipulating who they recruit, or who they determine are likely voters, for example.

In any case, we’ll know soon enough how accurate Cahaly is.

Yes, we do. Thats what I mean by methodology - how the sample is selected. For example, Rasmussen uses random-digit dialing for landlines, and supplements that with internet panels. Gallup uses random-digit dialing for landlines, and cell phone panels.

Probability polling is only as good as the sample - and if the sample isn't random, the results are inherently flawed.

Your use of terms like "who they recruit" just hammers home how little you understand about polling.

 

[beefheart]

We don’t know if any pollster is using a random sample, or if any pollster is making up numbers. Just because someone publishes their methodology doesn’t mean they aren’t manipulating who they recruit, or who they determine are likely voters, for example.

You have a point, though, about him not publishing his questions.

In any case, we’ll know soon enough how accurate Cahaly is.

Cherry picking

 

[99percenter]

Aren't those the guys who also ask how you think your neighbor will vote?

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

Aren't those the guys who also ask how you think your neighbor will vote?

Yes, supposedly.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Yes, we do. Thats what I mean by methodology - how the sample is selected. For example, Rasmussen uses random-digit dialing for landlines, and supplements that with internet panels. Gallup uses random-digit dialing for landlines, and cell phone panels.

Probability polling is only as good as the sample - and if the sample isn't random, the results are inherently flawed.

Your use of terms like "who they recruit" just hammers home how little you understand about polling.

You lied your way through another polling thread, pretending you had expertise when you didn’t.

Change Research recruits participants through social media.

 

[99percenter]

Yes, supposedly.

Very accurate.

 

[poweRob]

It's in several days. Chill. Wait. Enough with the ****ing polls.

And I was just about to show you Toobin's polling.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

You lied your way through another polling thread, pretending you had expertise when you didn’t.

Change Research recruits participants through social media.

Neither Reuters/Ipsos nor Change Research are probability-based polls - they're internet polls.

You might not understand what that means - but to put it simply, it means their samples aren't randomly selected - which essentially tosses out the mathematics behind how polls work.

 

[ReubenSherr]

Neither Reuters/Ipsos nor Change Research are probability-based polls - they're internet polls.

Phone-based polls do not recruit participants, correct.

The point is, though, that there is much we don’t know about many polling firms. Including, for example, how some determine the criteria for “likely voters.” As one example.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

Phone-based polls do not recruit participants, correct.

The point is, though, that there is much we don’t know about many polling firms. Including, for example, how some determine the criteria for “likely voters.” As one example.

Yeah, we actually do know how polling firms determine likely voters. At least I do.

Respondants are asked a series of questions related to the propensity to vote, and are given a score based on their results. Then, based on turnout projections, the bottom x% are eliminated - if turnout is projected to be 55%, the bottom 45% is eliminated, and so on.

How Do You Define "Likely Voters"?

Only a subset of the total population of citizens in a typical election will actually vote. This subset often has different characteristics than the total population. Thus, the results of a typical election are different than they would be if every citizen actually turned out and voted --...

news.gallup.com

Determining Who Is a ’Likely Voter’

Scott Keeter, director of survey research, explains why pollsters switch from registered voters to likely voters in their samples as Election Day nears, and how the Pew Research Center determines who is likely to vote.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[ReubenSherr]

Yeah, we actually do know how polling firms determine likely voters. At least I do.

Respondants are asked a series of questions related to the propensity to vote, and are given a score based on their results. Then, based on turnout projections, the bottom x% are eliminated - if turnout is projected to be 55%, the bottom 45% is eliminated, and so on.

How Do You Define "Likely Voters"?

Only a subset of the total population of citizens in a typical election will actually vote. This subset often has different characteristics than the total population. Thus, the results of a typical election are different than they would be if every citizen actually turned out and voted --...

news.gallup.com

Determining Who Is a ’Likely Voter’

Scott Keeter, director of survey research, explains why pollsters switch from registered voters to likely voters in their samples as Election Day nears, and how the Pew Research Center determines who is likely to vote.

www.pewresearch.org

This is the second time you’ve done this.

Gallup and Pew do not dictate how all polling firms conduct business. And their methodology has no bearing on whether a particular firm uses that same methodology.

In two different threads now, you’ve cited Gallup/Pew, and used the link to try to document that this is how all polling firms conduct business.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

This is the second time you’ve done this.

Gallup and Pew do not dictate how all polling firms conduct business. And their methodology has no bearing on whether a particular firm uses that same methodology.

The point is, repectable polling firms don't keep their methodology secret. If you want to know how a particular firm determines likelihood of voting, use your Google. If the firm doesn't tell you, that's a reason to be suspicious.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

This is the second time you’ve done this.

Gallup and Pew do not dictate how all polling firms conduct business. And their methodology has no bearing on whether a particular firm uses that same methodology.

In two different threads now, you’ve cited Gallup/Pew, and used the link to try to document that this is how all polling firms conduct business.

Gallup and Pew are both very forthcoming with their methodologies, and tend to be at the top of Google results when I search for links to educate you.

 

[ReubenSherr]

The point is, repectable polling firms don't keep their methodology secret. If you want to know how a particular firm determines likelihood of voting, use your Google. If the firm doesn't tell you, that's a reason to be suspicious.

I don’t disagree with this.

In terms of whether Cahaly is accurate concerning Trump voters, we’ll find out soon enough.