Trafalgar Chief Pollster Predicts Trump Victory, Claims Other Firms Are Reaching The Most Liberal, Conservative, and Bored

[Logician Man]

If Biden wins, we are looking at a "Dark Winter." Full of lockdowns, and economic hell.

And just as much loss of life.

The fact that Biden wears a mask all the time isn't going to change a thing.

 

[beerftw]

Nate wrote an article about the poll you cite. Here’s a quote from him:

“That said, ABC News/Washington Post is definitely an outlier; no other poll has shown Biden with that large a lead in Wisconsin since June.”

Nate rates most pollsters primarily on accuracy. Accuracy is not what you think it is, it’s far more complicated than your simplified concept. Only pollsters with very few polls are rated on methodology. Nate has also been adjusting his poll ratings to reflect the decline in live interview accuracy vs other methods as live gets worse and others get better. You can see all those issues addressed on his website.

But he also said in the same article they are rated high because they use the gold standard, even though in 2016 they performed poorly, and on the state level sometimes by epic levels.

To put it simply rasmeussen has a better track record than wapo polls, but 538 rates wapo high and rasmeussen low, which again says nate is trying to redefine accuracy to whatever he wants it to be, like trying to redefine the fastest runner in a marathon by what brand of shoes they wore rather than how fast they actually finished the race.

 

[yankintx]

Trafalgar chief pollster predicts Trump victory: Polls ‘predominantly missing the hidden vote’

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a “hidden vote” Cahaly says is predominantl…

thehill.com

"Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes."

Why does Cahaly claim that he is reaching an accurate slice of America, while most other pollsters are not?

https://radio.foxnews.com/2020/10/2...-explains-the-methodology-behind-their-polls/

"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.

You cling to Trafalgar like a Titanic passenger seeking a floating deck chair.

Have a great election day, I know i will.