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Trafalgar Chief Pollster Predicts Trump Victory, Claims Other Firms Are Reaching The Most Liberal, Conservative, and Bored

Gallup and Pew are both very forthcoming with their methodologies, and tend to be at the top of Google results when I search for links to educate you.
If you want to prove that all polling firms use a certain methodology, whether it be asking for the youngest member of the household, or using a consistent formula to determine who is a likely voter, you cannot simply cite Gallup and/or Pew.

Gallup/Pew do not manage other polling firms.
 
If you want to prove that all polling firms use a certain methodology, whether it be asking for the youngest member of the household, or using a consistent formula to determine who is a likely voter, you cannot simply cite Gallup and/or Pew.

Gallup/Pew do not manage other polling firms.

Again, you misunderstand. I am not trying to prove anything at all to you.

I have learned from experience that you will believe what you want to believe, when it comes to polling, no matter how incorrect and asinine as it may be. I do not care if you believe me or not.
 
Well, we'll find out soon enough.

I don't count my chickens at all on elections any more as anything can happen.
All I know is I'm not going to be President.
 
Trafalgar, as of the morning, shows Trump up 2 points in Florida, up 3 points in Arizona, and up 2 points in Michigan.

Again, it will be interesting to find out if Cahaly’s shorter surveys are more accurate in gauging the electorate.

We’ll know soon enough.
 
Trafalgar, as of the morning, shows Trump up 2 points in Florida, up 3 points in Arizona, and up 2 points in Michigan.

Again, it will be interesting to find out if Cahaly’s shorter surveys are more accurate in gauging the electorate.

We’ll know soon enough.
They seem to be an outlier though. Never concentrate on one polling organization. All other pollsters have Trump trailing Biden in Michigan. So when you average them out (trafalgar included), Biden still has a pretty decent margin in all those states. Michigan looks like it's going to Biden easily.
 
If you want to prove that all polling firms use a certain methodology, whether it be asking for the youngest member of the household, or using a consistent formula to determine who is a likely voter, you cannot simply cite Gallup and/or Pew.

Most firms who conduct polling DO post their methodology. People who conduct shitty polls don't. It's that simple.
 
Trump supporters don't believe any polls... unless the poll says Trump will win. Funny how that works.
 

"Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Tuesday night he sees President Trump being reelected, citing a "hidden vote" Cahaly says is predominantly missing from polling showing Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading nationally and in most swing states.

Trafalgar Group's polling in 2016 showed Trump leading in key battleground states including Pennsylvania and Michigan when almost all other pollsters had the Republican nominee trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Trump ended up wining both of those states and Wisconsin, becoming the first GOP presidential nominee to do so in decades.

“I see the president winning with a minimum high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly said, referring to Electoral College votes."

Why does Cahaly claim that he is reaching an accurate slice of America, while most other pollsters are not?

https://radio.foxnews.com/2020/10/2...-explains-the-methodology-behind-their-polls/

"Well, we're kind of a polling industry disrupter in that we think that the way the industry is being run is very out of date and not in line with modern times, modern values and kind of modern politics to start with the day and age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political survey. Oh, well, we have to take some time and answer this. I mean, this is not reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 at night. You got. You fixing dinner, you're washing dishes, putting kids to bed. Nobody's got time to stop what they're doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question poll. You're not getting regular people. You're getting people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, people who are bored. We're about polling average people.
Trafalgar is a polling organization that does polls for Conservative PACs.

Not exactly the most objective folks around, which is why you need to use them, right, Reuben?
 
We’ll see soon enough if this statement is true.

It's true regardless.

Trump may very well win. But to pretend that Trafalgar is reliable after they botched the midterms is laughable.
 
Trump supporters don't believe any polls... unless the poll says Trump will win. Funny how that works.
Both sides are guilty of this.

Biden supporters laugh at Trafalgar and Rasmussen, and assume Quinnipiac and ABC are correct.

We’ll find out soon enough.
 
Trafalgar is a polling organization that does polls for Conservative PACs.

Not exactly the most objective folks around, which is why you need to use them, right, Reuben?
CNN, ABC, and Quinnipiac are not “the most objective folks around” either lol.

Election Day is just over a week away. We’ll find out who is accurate, and who is not.
 
CNN, ABC, and Quinnipiac are not “the most objective folks around” either lol.

Election Day is just over a week away. We’ll find out who is accurate, and who is not.
That’s why averaging and weighting polls is the best way to interpret them.

And when you do that, Biden is +9 and winning by good margins in WI, PA, MI, NC,AZ and NV, which is more than enough for a definitive win.
 
Oh Reuben. You must be getting full of all them cherries you are picking.
Chill, Beefheart.

The thread is about Trafalgar.

If this bothers you, there are plenty of other threads to choose from.

We’ll know soon enough if Cahaly is accurate.
 
That’s why averaging and weighting polls is the best way to interpret them.

And when you do that, Biden is +9 and winning by good margins in WI, PA, MI, NC,AZ and NV, which is more than enough for a definitive win.
Well, we’ve got just over a week to go. And then all of this will be resolved.

No idea where you’re getting the +9 figure BTW.

Biden’s lead in AZ is under 3 points, his lead in NC is under 2 points. PA is roughly 5 points. WI is under 5.
 
Chill, Beefheart.

The thread is about Trafalgar.

If this bothers you, there are plenty of other threads to choose from.

We’ll know soon enough if Cahaly is accurate.
Boy, you sure get defensive when people talk to you the same way you talk to them Reuben...
 
Both sides are guilty of this.

Biden supporters laugh at Trafalgar and Rasmussen, and assume Quinnipiac and ABC are correct.

We’ll find out soon enough.
I don't laugh at any one polling firm. I average them all together, which is why I follow RCP and 538. Averages and predictions based on those averages, which seems like a good way to follow the polls. You pick the one or two firms that shows Trump slightly ahead and use that as your gospel. That's the difference between you and I.
 
I don't laugh at any one polling firm. I average them all together, which is why I follow RCP and 538. Averages and predictions based on those averages, which seems like a good way to follow the polls. You pick the one or two firms that shows Trump slightly ahead and use that as your gospel. That's the difference between you and I.
The thread is about Trafalgar, specifically.

Would you like me to create another thread and list RCP averages?

You have a dozen posters creating threads about the liberally-affiliated polls. I don’t think you need me to create even more threads about liberally oriented polls.

Just because I create a thread about Trafalgar doesn’t necessarily mean I believe they are correct. I am simply providing a balance. And people can judge for themselves.
 
What is real interesting is the South Carolina race. Lindsey is losing by 2 points according to 538, but Trump is around 8 points ahead. I think what we may be seeing here are protest votes down ballot or abstaining from voting down ballot and voting president and locals without marking the Senate candidate or writing in. It isn't beyond reason that some will vote Harrison in protest, because they flat hate Graham...but it is more likely they will write in or vote 3rd party, if they vote at all. I think Graham might lose this race...and he would richly deserve to lose. I do believe that Trump will win in South Carolina, but it will not be the margin that he won in 2016 effectively turning this state into a battleground state and no longer red....if Harrison wins we will have the distinct reward of having 2 black Senators, one a moderate Democrat and one a Republican. We were the first to leave the union and evidently the first to come out of the dark ages in that aspect...it did take a long time though, because they elected a segregationist Senator again and again and again and again.
 
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