The Swedish experiment of doing remarkably little about Covid-19

[HikerGuy83]

When the US took the projection of Ferguson seriously and shut down EVERYTHING, they claimed their goal was to mitigate the disaster.

Ferguson said that if the US did NOTHING, then Covid would kill 2.2 Million. If the US did ANYTHING, that would drop the death toll to 1.1 million.

Having done EVERYTHING, the US death toll is now at 1.016 million and still rising.

The shut downs, mask mandates, school closings, election corruptions and everything else were useless in effect. If we had ONLY washed our hands more often and used hand sanitizer, we'd have hit the same result.

We were conned by the lying thieves so they could lie and steal even more than usual.

How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19

The trouble with being too easily led by models is we can too easily be misled by models. Epidemic models may seem entirely different from economic models or climate models, but they all make terrible forecasts if filled with wrong assumptions and parameters.

www.cato.org

They spent all their credibility early on.

They acted like they were supreme beings and turned out to be total morons.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Sweden has a different mix of freedoms to the US, and the more individualist and self-indulgent US culture would never have got the good result that Sweden did by voluntary responsibility. Sick people would have lined up outside hospitals, rather than voluntarily taking sensible precautions.

The US did not get a good result, but it could easily have been worse.

How is is that progressives don't understand that what they promote is what causes what is described above.

The U.S. had lots of good results. We are only 33 times larger than Sweden and certain areas did wonderfully.

The Cuomovirus certainly devastated NY/NJ and the rest of the N.E. early on despite their silly responses.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Still posting nonsense I see, why don't you try and tell the truth for once about covid.

In deaths per 1 million, Iceland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Malta, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland have lower death rates than Sweden.

In infections per 1 million, Finland, Germany, Norway, Poland, Bulgaria, Italy, Iceland and Hungary have lower infections than Sweden.

And Sweden tests way fewer people than other European countries so the true number of infections might be a lot higher.

And as always, when compared to their neighboring countries Sweden scores immensely worse than Finland, Denmark and Norway.

But the U.S., the U.K., Poland, Belgium and other countries have had higher death rates. Italy's death rate is about 65% higher than Sweden.

Infection information is not as meaningful.

Testing has waned in all parts of the world, even the U.S.

Sweden started out in the top 10 and is now 57 on the list in terms of deaths per million. They have watched places like the U.K. lock down and die.

Here is Sweden's death numbers:

We know the first surge was because they let it into their nursing homes. It is interesting that the second two surges take place during the same time of year (the holidays). In between.....very low.



Looking at other countries, like the U.S. it seems that our dictate to hide in the basement did little for u.

 

[Peter King]

But the U.S., the U.K., Poland, Belgium and other countries have had higher death rates. Italy's death rate is about 65% higher than Sweden.

Infection information is not as meaningful.

Testing has waned in all parts of the world, even the U.S.

Sweden started out in the top 10 and is now 57 on the list in terms of deaths per million. They have watched places like the U.K. lock down and die.

Here is Sweden's death numbers:

We know the first surge was because they let it into their nursing homes. It is interesting that the second two surges take place during the same time of year (the holidays). In between.....very low.

View attachment 67386467

Looking at other countries, like the U.S. it seems that our dictate to hide in the basement did little for u.

Ah the "but" defense, the US, UK, Italy are not the neighboring countries of Sweden now are they, you can hardly compare the particularities of a country like Italy which has a population density close to 10 times that of Sweden.

Sweden did implement work at home doctrines, limiting travel within the country, social distancing and people above 70 had to self isolate if they had symptoms. And they took more measures besides lockdowns.

Their immediate neighbors did take lockdown measures and their covid numbers and death rates are way lower than those in Sweden and that is what you have to compare them to, not to Italy, a country that has a density 10 times that of Sweden.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Ah the "but" defense, the US, UK, Italy are not the neighboring countries of Sweden now are they, you can hardly compare the particularities of a country like Italy which has a population density close to 10 times that of Sweden.

Sweden did implement work at home doctrines, limiting travel within the country, social distancing and people above 70 had to self isolate if they had symptoms. And they took more measures besides lockdowns.

Their immediate neighbors did take lockdown measures and their covid numbers and death rates are way lower than those in Sweden and that is what you have to compare them to, not to Italy, a country that has a density 10 times that of Sweden.

Not sure how you can say when population density kicks in and when it does not. Sweden has a higher population density than both it's neighbors.

Your second and third sentences doe no connect anything. If Sweden took more measure besides lockdowns, then what is your argument ?

 

[Peter King]

Not sure how you can say when population density kicks in and when it does not. Sweden has a higher population density than both it's neighbors.

Your second and third sentences doe no connect anything. If Sweden took more measure besides lockdowns, then what is your argument ?

Population density and climate are factors in the spread of covid, if you are not sure about that, well then that makes the rest of discussing rather a moot issue.

But as to your population density comment:

Sweden density 22 per square kilometer
Norway density 16 per square kilometer
Finland density 16 per square kilometer

Which might make Sweden higher but by just 6 per square kilometer. Whereas you mentioned in Europe:

the U.K., Poland, Belgium and Italy

UK density 277 per square kilometer
Poland density 122 per square kilometer
Belgium density 376 per square kilometer
Italy density 201 per square kilometer

Poland has almost 6 times the density, the UK 13 times the density, Italy about 9 times the density and Belgium has about 17 times the density. Which makes the 6 people per square mile that Norway and Finland are less densely population almost a joke comparison.

And those countries did not do just a bit better than Sweden, they did incredibly better than Sweden.

Sweden has 244,408 cases per 1 million citizens, they had a death rate of 1819 per 1 million people

Norway had 258,611 cases per 1 million citizens but only 522 deaths per million citizens

Finland had 170,906 cases per 1 million citizens but only 633 deaths per million citizens

Meaning Sweden did significantly worse in protecting their citizens from DEATH than the other 2.

And my second and third sentence showed that while Sweden did not lock down, they did take serious measures to do about the same thing as locking down, restrict movement, work from home, leave only primary schools open, etc. etc. etc.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Population density and climate are factors in the spread of covid, if you are not sure about that, well then that makes the rest of discussing rather a moot issue.

But as to your population density comment:

Sweden density 22 per square kilometer
Norway density 16 per square kilometer
Finland density 16 per square kilometer

Which might make Sweden higher but by just 6 per square kilometer. Whereas you mentioned in Europe:


UK density 277 per square kilometer
Poland density 122 per square kilometer
Belgium density 376 per square kilometer
Italy density 201 per square kilometer

Poland has almost 6 times the density, the UK 13 times the density, Italy about 9 times the density and Belgium has about 17 times the density. Which makes the 6 people per square mile that Norway and Finland are less densely population almost a joke comparison.

And those countries did not do just a bit better than Sweden, they did incredibly better than Sweden.

Sweden has 244,408 cases per 1 million citizens, they had a death rate of 1819 per 1 million people

Norway had 258,611 cases per 1 million citizens but only 522 deaths per million citizens

Finland had 170,906 cases per 1 million citizens but only 633 deaths per million citizens

Meaning Sweden did significantly worse in protecting their citizens from DEATH than the other 2.

And my second and third sentence showed that while Sweden did not lock down, they did take serious measures to do about the same thing as locking down, restrict movement, work from home, leave only primary schools open, etc. etc. etc.

Please provide a link to your first statement so I know which one you are referencing.

There are so many with so many different conclusions.....we might as well get that straight.

 

[Peter King]

Please provide a link to your first statement so I know which one you are referencing.

There are so many with so many different conclusions.....we might as well get that straight.

In conclusion, the durations of the spread and decay stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were correlated with absolute humidity, temperature, and population density in four countries that did not experience a collapse of their medical systems. The contributions of these factors were different in each country, which could be attributed to regional policies. Although the morbidity and mortality rates differed by one to two orders of magnitude, these parameters were sufficient to estimate the durations. The higher population density tends to lead to prolonged spread and decay durations, while less correlations with the population and meteorological factors. The contribution rate of population density for multivariable are 30–50% in each country. The tendency of shortening duration with higher temperature and humidity reported by [ was not clearly observed in Germany and England. These durations were affected by the policies and human behavior. With strict lockdown policies imposed (China), durations are shortened and their correlations with the population density and meteorological factor become insignificant. These findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions, such as determining the necessary shutdown length. This factor should be considered in another potential pandemic or next waves of COVID-19, in addition to the results of the multi-city comparison.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420303049

 

[Fledermaus]

Please provide a link to your first statement so I know which one you are referencing.

There are so many with so many different conclusions.....we might as well get that straight.

The fact is Sweden failed miserably compared to her peers in COVID deaths.

Finland and Norway were in the 50 range on the list of COVID deaths by nation while Sweden was in the 150 range.

 

[HikerGuy83]

The fact is Sweden failed miserably compared to her peers in COVID deaths.

Finland and Norway were in the 50 range on the list of COVID deaths by nation while Sweden was in the 150 range.

There is no "fact" in any of that.

Sweden was 3 x higher. That's all. There was no "Failure" because failure is a subjective term.

 

[HikerGuy83]

In conclusion, the durations of the spread and decay stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were correlated with absolute humidity, temperature, and population density in four countries that did not experience a collapse of their medical systems. The contributions of these factors were different in each country, which could be attributed to regional policies. Although the morbidity and mortality rates differed by one to two orders of magnitude, these parameters were sufficient to estimate the durations. The higher population density tends to lead to prolonged spread and decay durations, while less correlations with the population and meteorological factors. The contribution rate of population density for multivariable are 30–50% in each country. The tendency of shortening duration with higher temperature and humidity reported by [ was not clearly observed in Germany and England. These durations were affected by the policies and human behavior. With strict lockdown policies imposed (China), durations are shortened and their correlations with the population density and meteorological factor become insignificant. These findings will be useful in policy setting and governmental actions, such as determining the necessary shutdown length. This factor should be considered in another potential pandemic or next waves of COVID-19, in addition to the results of the multi-city comparison.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771420303049

How do you determine population density ?

 

[Ug make hammer]

The fact is Sweden failed miserably compared to her peers in COVID deaths.

Finland and Norway were in the 50 range on the list of COVID deaths by nation while Sweden was in the 150 range.

You're right, but you haven't quoted the data properly.

Sweden ...... 1,831 deaths per million
Norway ...... 525 deaths per million
Finland ....... 633 deaths per million

They all have similar urbanization (83% to 88%) and climate.

 

[Ug make hammer]

How do you determine population density ?

Population density IN THE CITIES, and overall urbanization, are all that matter. Whether rural people live half a kilometer or ten kilometers from each other, does not matter.

 

[Fledermaus]

There is no "fact" in any of that.

Sweden was 3 x higher. That's all. There was no "Failure" because failure is a subjective term.

Failure is indeed subjective. Until you realize the numbers underline that failure.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Failure is indeed subjective. Until you realize the numbers underline that failure.

Is a C in school a failure ?

 

[HikerGuy83]

You're right, but you haven't quoted the data properly.

Sweden ...... 1,831 deaths per million
Norway ...... 525 deaths per million
Finland ....... 633 deaths per million

They all have similar urbanization (83% to 88%) and climate.

Thank you.

Where did you get your urbanization data ?

 

[Fledermaus]

Is a C in school a failure ?

Is it?

To a 4.00 student yes.

 

[Ug make hammer]

Thank you.

Where did you get your urbanization data ?

I got it from Wikipedia, who got it from CIA World Factbook.

Now that I look at CIAWF I see it's been updated again. Sweden on 88.5% rounds up to 89%, but the split is the same because Norway in 2022 was 84%

Even if rural people were totally immune, lower urbanization in Norway and Finland would only account for 5% of the difference.

My guess is that all the Scandinavian countries have high rates of compliance. But the difference between them is a rather small sub-population of dickheads who only follow government recommendations when there is a threat of fines. And when the dickhead ratio gets up to 30% or so any attempt at risk mitigation is essentially futile ... basically the rest of the West. Rates went up until people were afraid for themselves and took precautions, then they would die down again. On-again/off-again restrictions may have had a signal effect, but not as strongly as in Asia or Scandinavia.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Is it?

To a 4.00 student yes.

Does that same SINGLE student get to decide what constitutes the "failure" of an entire country ?

Let me give you a hint....that's a rhetorical question.

Don't bother answering.

 

[code1211]

The countries in that area have a cultural toughness that is built in from the start:

Sisu is a Finnish concept described as stoic determination, tenacity of purpose, grit, bravery, resilience,[1][2] and hardiness[3][4] and is held by Finns themselves to express their national character. It is generally considered not to have a literal equivalent in English.

In America's woke need for safe spaces and censorship of ideas that "rock the boat", you are right....we'll never be like them.

If we had their same population, they'd kick our butts in any kind of conflict.

Virtually every problem on the United States can be traced back to either lawyers or government.

I wonder if the folks you describe here are as litigation crazy as the folks in the US have become.

 

[code1211]

They spent all their credibility early on.

They acted like they were supreme beings and turned out to be total morons.

The problem was that the more wrong they were proven to be BY THE SCIENCE the louder and stronger they shreiked that they must be followed.

We are so used to government lying to us that we now just accept that they are idiots, they are wrong and we must follow them.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Virtually every problem on the United States can be traced back to either lawyers or government.

I wonder if the folks you describe here are as litigation crazy as the folks in the US have become.

Highly doubtful.

You can't legislate values and virtues.

That is why the Nordic way works even with their heavy governments.

They still have personal pride.

We seem to be pretty woke.

 

[HikerGuy83]

The problem was that the more wrong they were proven to be BY THE SCIENCE the louder and stronger they shreiked that they must be followed.

We are so used to government lying to us that we now just accept that they are idiots, they are wrong and we must follow them.

Totally agree.

 

[Fledermaus]

View attachment 67387013

Does that same SINGLE student get to decide what constitutes the "failure" of an entire country ?

Let me give you a hint....that's a rhetorical question.

Don't bother answering.

What a silly, silly question.

You asked a question. I gave an answer.

Sweden failed when compared to a her peers.

 

[HikerGuy83]

What a silly, silly question.

You asked a question. I gave an answer.

Sweden failed when compared to a her peers.

Sweden didn't do as well as her peers.

Getting a C does not mean you failed compared to your friend who got an A.