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The Rouble is back on its feet!

Juin

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For now. Not that I am into Roubles, anyways. But a poster told me today my payments in Roubles from Russia were now worth rubbish. Problem is I dont have a Rouble to turn into gold or rubbish. Or it could be that the poster knows more about payments to me from Moscow than myself. :) Maybe I am sitting on millions of Roubles in some secret account somewhere, Moscow's gratitude to myself, and I am not aware. Maybe Moscow is keeping its magnanimity to me a secret, else I announce it to the whole world. :) Eitherways I decided to take a look at the health of the Rouble.

To my utter surprise the Rouble is back firmly on its feet. The Rouble is selling at some 87 Roubles to the Dollar, which is roundabouts what it was before Senile Joe, Boris "the menace" Johnson, Vladimir Alexandrovich Zelensky went after it with pitchforks. The Rouble took it on the chin and was in free fall. It kept falling and was selling at some 150 Dollars by the time I lost track.

But the Rouble, like the cat, must have 9 lives. It is back grinning at the Dollar, kind of like: is that all you got? Anyways I digress....

But why did pundits so prematurely declare the death of the Rouble? Frankly, I am beginning to believe all these tv experts are all liars. The reasons why the Rouble was bound to bounce back were always there.


Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sanctions' impact​

SECTIONS
Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sa ..

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
 

PIPEWRENCH

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For now. Not that I am into Roubles, anyways. But a poster told me today my payments in Roubles from Russia were now worth rubbish. Problem is I dont have a Rouble to turn into gold or rubbish. Or it could be that the poster knows more about payments to me from Moscow than myself. :) Maybe I am sitting on millions of Roubles in some secret account somewhere, Moscow's gratitude to myself, and I am not aware. Maybe Moscow is keeping its magnanimity to me a secret, else I announce it to the whole world. :) Eitherways I decided to take a look at the health of the Rouble.

To my utter surprise the Rouble is back firmly on its feet. The Rouble is selling at some 87 Roubles to the Dollar, which is roundabouts what it was before Senile Joe, Boris "the menace" Johnson, Vladimir Alexandrovich Zelensky went after it with pitchforks. The Rouble took it on the chin and was in free fall. It kept falling and was selling at some 150 Dollars by the time I lost track.

But the Rouble, like the cat, must have 9 lives. It is back grinning at the Dollar, kind of like: is that all you got? Anyways I digress....

But why did pundits so prematurely declare the death of the Rouble? Frankly, I am beginning to believe all these tv experts are all liars. The reasons why the Rouble was bound to bounce back were always there.


Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sanctions' impact​

SECTIONS
Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sa ..

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
This is proof we need a leader.
 

Juin

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Let's see how long Putin and the oligarchs can keep the ruble propped up. Sanctions don't work overnight.


You are missing the point. As I pointed out in the thread opener the reasons why the Rouble was bound to firm up were always there. My impression is that tv pundits rushed to pronounce the death of the Rouble simply because it fitted the mood of the hour. It had become almost treason not to pronounce the death of the Rouble and the Russian economy. Journalists who have made informing the public their job ought to do a better job than that.

Of course, the Rouble may still crash fatally. As you suggest. Pundits could have simply suggested it as a possibility. That they did not do
 

justoneman

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Let's see how long Putin and the oligarchs can keep the ruble propped up. Sanctions don't work overnight.
I am guessing it has to do with deciding to sell their oil in rubles rather than USD. China and India are propping up the ruble as the big Russian oil buyers.
 

CaughtInThe

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Let's see how long Putin and the oligarchs can keep the ruble propped up. Sanctions don't work overnight.
i've been convinced for decades that most people just can't think more than a day or two in advance.
 

ChickenTendies

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You are missing the point. As I pointed out in the thread opener the reasons why the Rouble was bound to firm up were always there. My impression is that tv pundits rushed to pronounce the death of the Rouble simply because it fitted the mood of the hour. It had become almost treason not to pronounce the death of the Rouble and the Russian economy. Journalists who have made informing the public their job ought to do a better job than that.

Of course, the Rouble may still crash fatally. As you suggest. Pundits could have simply suggested it as a possibility. That they did not do
These sanctions were supposed to be the West's "masterstroke" to utterly cripple Russia.
 

Juin

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I am guessing it has to do with deciding to sell their oil in rubles rather than USD. China and India are propping up the ruble as the big Russian oil buyers.


I believe in implementing sanctions Olaf Scholz' caution ought to have been heeded. Scholz basically pointed out that there is a science to sanctions. You wanna maximise damage on Russia, while minimising damage on us. In the hysteria of the moment what ended up was a sepuku kind of sanctions. Where all caution was thrown to the wind, and damage on us was invited as much as damage on Russia
 

Yakshi

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Have the writers of that article not heard of the currency black market that is flourishing in Russia right now?

If they can help it, Russians aren't exchanging rubles at banks or currency exchange kiosks. They're making deals on Telegram and exchanging rubles at the real rates at train stations.

Nobody wants to hold rubles. They're all chasing dollars and euros.


This is what happens when a country implements numerous rules to restrict currency exchange in order to artificially/officially prop up the value of their currency.

Anyone unlucky enough to exchange for rubles at the official rate should bring vaseline with him.
 

Surrealistik

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For now. Not that I am into Roubles, anyways. But a poster told me today my payments in Roubles from Russia were now worth rubbish. Problem is I dont have a Rouble to turn into gold or rubbish. Or it could be that the poster knows more about payments to me from Moscow than myself. :) Maybe I am sitting on millions of Roubles in some secret account somewhere, Moscow's gratitude to myself, and I am not aware. Maybe Moscow is keeping its magnanimity to me a secret, else I announce it to the whole world. :) Eitherways I decided to take a look at the health of the Rouble.

To my utter surprise the Rouble is back firmly on its feet. The Rouble is selling at some 87 Roubles to the Dollar, which is roundabouts what it was before Senile Joe, Boris "the menace" Johnson, Vladimir Alexandrovich Zelensky went after it with pitchforks. The Rouble took it on the chin and was in free fall. It kept falling and was selling at some 150 Dollars by the time I lost track.

But the Rouble, like the cat, must have 9 lives. It is back grinning at the Dollar, kind of like: is that all you got? Anyways I digress....

But why did pundits so prematurely declare the death of the Rouble? Frankly, I am beginning to believe all these tv experts are all liars. The reasons why the Rouble was bound to bounce back were always there.


Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sanctions' impact​

SECTIONS
Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sa ..

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Russian central bank is rapidly burning its foreign currency reserves (more than half of which has been frozen by EU and US sanctions) to prop up the ruble, along with obviously desperate and unsustainable measures like 20% interest rates and strict capital controls, but their foreign currency reserve is finite and these desperate measures will have longer term adverse consequences; basically a case of choosing between bad and worse. It remains to be seen whether they can get back to normalcy before the resources needed to uphold this desperate financial tourniquet gives out and the economy and currency succumbs; your article admits that these measures can only last for so long, and will not be a long term solution; Russia's economy is struggling by on borrowed time.
 

Yakshi

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Russian central bank is rapidly burning its foreign currency reserves (more than half of which has been frozen by EU and US sanctions) to prop up the ruble, along with obviously desperate and unsustainable measures like 20% interest rates and strict capital controls, but their foreign currency reserve is finite and these desperate measures will have longer term adverse consequences; basically a case of choosing between bad and worse. It remains to be seen whether they can get back to normalcy before the resources needed to uphold this desperate financial tourniquet gives out and the economy and currency succumbs.

There's not enough popcorn in the world for the upcoming Russian collapse.
 

Juin

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These sanctions were supposed to be the West's "masterstroke" to utterly cripple Russia.


Exactly! I still recall pundits on tv talking about a rush on Russian banks by Russian citizens. As a matter of fact there was. But only for a few days, until Joe Russian realised absence of Visa and MC did not meant his accounts vanished. Some masterstroke.

Everyone basically became victims to mass hysteria. I recall the Italian Prime Minister pointed out the dangers of carless sanctioning. I am sure other heads of government were aware as well. But the mob was out with pitchforks. It was treason not to obey Zelensky's every demand. There was the case of SWIFT. Cooler heads pointed out that if you kick Russians off SWIFT how do you plan on paying for their gas? Zelensky went on tv and whip up the mob some more, and we all went down the sepuku path LOL
 

Yakshi

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Exactly! I still recall pundits on tv talking about a rush on Russian banks by Russian citizens. As a matter of fact there was. But only for a few days, until Joe Russian realised absence of Visa and MC did not meant his accounts vanished. Some masterstroke.

Everyone basically became victims to mass hysteria. I recall the Italian Prime Minister pointed out the dangers of carless sanctioning. I am sure other heads of government were aware as well. But the mob was out with pitchforks. It was treason not to obey Zelensky's every demand. There was the case of SWIFT. Cooler heads pointed out that if you kick Russians off SWIFT how do you plan on paying for their gas? Zelensky went on tv and whip up the mob some more, and we all went down the sepuku path LOL

Russian citizens are not allowed to exchange rubles for dollars.

That's why they're exchanging them at the real rate on the black market.

 

Juin

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Russian central bank is rapidly burning its foreign currency reserves (more than half of which has been frozen by EU and US sanctions) to prop up the ruble, along with obviously desperate and unsustainable measures like 20% interest rates and strict capital controls, but their foreign currency reserve is finite and these desperate measures will have longer term adverse consequences; basically a case of choosing between bad and worse. It remains to be seen whether they can get back to normalcy before the resources needed to uphold this desperate financial tourniquet gives out and the economy and currency succumbs; your article admits that these measures can only last for so long, and will not be a long term solution; Russia's economy is struggling by on borrowed time.


How rapidly is Russian burning through its foreign currency reserves?
All foreign currency reserves are finite. Not just the Russian. And is the rest of the world on board with pulling out of trading with Russia?

Russia may still collapse. But it will not be from wishful thinking. And the case of the Rouble was wishful thinking. Pundits these past weeks declared the Rouble finis. They were wrong. At least the Rouble did not listen to them
 

Hamish Howl

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Everything is fantastic in Russia! Obviously.

 

Deuce

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These sanctions were supposed to be the West's "masterstroke" to utterly cripple Russia.
Measuring the impact purely based on the exchange rate of Rubles is a strange choice.
 

ChickenTendies

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How rapidly is Russian burning through its foreign currency reserves?
All foreign currency reserves are finite. Not just the Russian. And is the rest of the world on board with pulling out of trading with Russia?
Apparently to many posters on this board, the entire world solely consists of NATO when in fact a massive majority of countries have chosen not to implement sanctions
 

Juin

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Measuring the impact purely based on the exchange rate of Rubles is a strange choice.


That exactly was what tv pundits and Senile Joe went by when they declared the death of the Russian economy.
 

Hamish Howl

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Apparently to many posters on this board, the entire world solely consists of NATO when in fact a massive majority of countries have chosen not to implement sanctions

Which is why the Russians are selling oil at a 65% discount, right?
 

justoneman

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I believe in implementing sanctions Olaf Scholz' caution ought to have been heeded. Scholz basically pointed out that there is a science to sanctions. You wanna maximise damage on Russia, while minimising damage on us. In the hysteria of the moment what ended up was a sepuku kind of sanctions. Where all caution was thrown to the wind, and damage on us was invited as much as damage on Russia
Sure but I think the problem is we seem to have no idea of what Putin's end game is. We had sanctions on Russia because of their seizing Crimea. Then we held the sanctions and refused to accept that Russia won the little war for Crimea and there it sat. It reminds me of how we embargoed Cuba to damage Castro to actualize revolution. That did little, just as the Crimea sanctions did. Just as bombing alone cannot win a war, sanctions alone are even less effective. We should not be so caught up in the Russian invasion of Ukraine thinking we can ultimately affect the outcome in favor of Ukraine. It has been clear to me right from the start of the invasion. Russia will take the Donbas and force a Ukraine government step down. Knowing this what do we expect to happen? What do we expect as an outcome from sanctions? Are we helping save Ukrainians lives with all our billions we are sending there or are we facilitating the complete destruction of several major cities?

Kiev is the target for complete encirclement. The West has been deluged with Ukrainian propaganda. The Russians are going about the plan. The final phase is the siege of Kiev. Once Kiev is encircled, it is game over. What will happen after the fall of the Ukrainian government? Will we sanction the hell out of Russia after the war is over like was done with Crimea? Sure. That is exactly what we will do. Just like Cuba. Our policy has been zero effective. Our efforts should 100% be brokering a peace deal. Putin would not accept any deal once he controls all. But if done now maybe he would.

Divide Ukraine. Split it in half. East and West.
 
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Deuce

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That exactly was what tv pundits and Senile Joe went by when they declared the death of the Russian economy.
No, that was not the only criteria. People have talked about a lot of factors.
 

Yakshi

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Apparently to many posters on this board, the entire world solely consists of NATO when in fact a massive majority of countries have chosen not to implement sanctions

Yes, rumor has it that Nigeria still wants Russian nesting dolls.
 
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