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The Rouble is back on its feet!

The pro Russia guys will rush to this thread.
 
justoneman said:
Sure but I think the problem is we seem to have no idea of what Putin's end game is. We had sanctions on Russia because of their seizing Crimea. Then we held the sanctions and refused to accept that Russia won the little war for Crimea and there it sat. It reminds me of how we embargoed Cuba to damage Castro to actualize revolution. That did little, just as the Crimea sanctions did. Just as bombing alone cannot win a war, sanctions alone are even less effective. We should not be so caught up in the Russian invasion of Ukraine thinking we can ultimately affect the outcome in favor of Ukraine. It has been clear to me right from the start of the invasion. Russia will take the Donbas and force a Ukraine government step down. Knowing this what do we expect to happen? What do we expect as an outcome from sanctions? Are we helping save Ukrainians lives with all our billions we are sending there or are we facilitating the complete destruction of several major cities?

Kiev is the target for complete encirclement. The West has been deluged with Ukrainian propaganda. The Russians are going about the plan. The final phase the siege of Kiev. Once Kiev is encircled, it is game over. What will happen after the fall of the Ukrainian government? Will we sanction the hell out of Russia after the war is over like was done with Crimea? Sure. That is exactly what we will do. Just like Cuba. Our policy has been zero effective. Our efforts should be 100% be brokering a peace deal. utin would not accept any deal once he controls all. But if done now maybe he would.

Divide Ukraine. Split it in half. East and West.
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I like how, despite this post's length, it somehow manages to remain disconnected from reality.

If dogfood were a language, I now know what it would look like.
 
ChickenTendies said:
Apparently to many posters on this board, the entire world solely consists of NATO when in fact a massive majority of countries have chosen not to implement sanctions
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And gazillions of wishful thinking. Actually Putin is not a spendthrift President at all. How else did Russia manage to amass a huge reserve? In many a way the man is a miser. So the suggestion that he is burning through his reserves are out of character. And Russian reserves are finite and burning away is based also on the assumption that Russia is not trading anyone else on the planet
 
Juin said:
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For now. Not that I am into Roubles, anyways. But a poster told me today my payments in Roubles from Russia were now worth rubbish. Problem is I dont have a Rouble to turn into gold or rubbish. Or it could be that the poster knows more about payments to me from Moscow than myself. :) Maybe I am sitting on millions of Roubles in some secret account somewhere, Moscow's gratitude to myself, and I am not aware. Maybe Moscow is keeping its magnanimity to me a secret, else I announce it to the whole world. :) Eitherways I decided to take a look at the health of the Rouble.

To my utter surprise the Rouble is back firmly on its feet. The Rouble is selling at some 87 Roubles to the Dollar, which is roundabouts what it was before Senile Joe, Boris "the menace" Johnson, Vladimir Alexandrovich Zelensky went after it with pitchforks. The Rouble took it on the chin and was in free fall. It kept falling and was selling at some 150 Dollars by the time I lost track.

But the Rouble, like the cat, must have 9 lives. It is back grinning at the Dollar, kind of like: is that all you got? Anyways I digress....

But why did pundits so prematurely declare the death of the Rouble? Frankly, I am beginning to believe all these tv experts are all liars. The reasons why the Rouble was bound to bounce back were always there.


Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sanctions' impact​

SECTIONS
Russia's ruble rebound raises questions of sa ..

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
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PIPEWRENCH said:
This is proof we need a leader.
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ChickenTendies said:
These sanctions were supposed to be the West's "masterstroke" to utterly cripple Russia.
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Are they Trumpists or are they Russian propaganda posters? The real worry is that you have to ask, then have to wonder whether it matters.

As just about everyone but them seem to understand, the valuation of the ruble was not the main goal of sanctions. Yet they run victory laps at a (temporary) recovery. Why?



The answer is obvious. If they are Russian propagandists, they say what they are told or what will put them in favor (or at least create a 'paper trail'). If they are Trumpists, they are rooting for Biden to fail in Ukraine despite the fact that this a truly evil war of aggression, moving into a phase of slaughtering civilians to spur surrender.

They can't be people who don't consider the possibility of speculators betting on the effect of Putin ordering Russian suppliers to only take Rubles as payment - one hell of a late game bluff, seeing as complete boycott would be catastrophic. Not that Putin would pay the price.
 
Deuce said:
Measuring the impact purely based on the exchange rate of Rubles is a strange choice.
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So what are the crippling effects on the Russian economy? Since the flow of gas from Russia hasn't seemed to cease.
 
justoneman said:
Sure but I think the problem is we seem to have no idea of what Putin's end game is. We had sanctions on Russia because of their seizing Crimea. Then we held the sanctions and refused to accept that Russia won the little war for Crimea and there it sat. It reminds me of how we embargoed Cuba to damage Castro to actualize revolution. That did little, just as the Crimea sanctions did. Just as bombing alone cannot win a war, sanctions alone are even less effective. We should not be so caught up in the Russian invasion of Ukraine thinking we can ultimately affect the outcome in favor of Ukraine. It has been clear to me right from the start of the invasion. Russia will take the Donbas and force a Ukraine government step down. Knowing this what do we expect to happen? What do we expect as an outcome from sanctions? Are we helping save Ukrainians lives with all our billions we are sending there or are we facilitating the complete destruction of several major cities?
Click to expand...


What even kills me is that the whole thing was avoidable. As far back as the 90s cooler heads had pointed out that the headlong eastward expansion was bound to run into Russian objections at some point. Basically Nato had taken to openly grooming ex Soviet Socialist states for acession. Not even subtly and under the table. 2008 Bush Jr had Nato oficially extend a hand to Ukraine and Georgia! A Russian would be less of a Russian if he did not see that as provokation of the highest order.


justoneman said:
Kiev is the target for complete encirclement. The West has been deluged with Ukrainian propaganda. The Russians are going about the plan. The final phase the siege of Kiev. Once Kiev is encircled, it is game over. What will happen after the fall of the Ukrainian government? Will we sanction the hell out of Russia after the war is over like was done with Crimea? Sure. That is exactly what we will do. Just like Cuba. Our policy has been zero effective. Our efforts should 100% be brokering a peace deal. Putin would not accept any deal once he controls all. But if done now maybe he would.

Divide Ukraine. Split it in half. East and West.
Click to expand...


The sad part about the tragedy playing out there is that Nato is careful not to shed a drop of blood. A pervesion of 'blood and guts'. Ukarainian blood, Nato guts.
 
Mr Person said:
Are they Trumpists or are they Russian propaganda posters? The real worry is that you have to ask, then have to wonder whether it matters.

As just about everyone but them seem to understand, the valuation of the ruble was not the main goal of sanctions. Yet they run victory laps at a (temporary) recovery. Why?



The answer is obvious. If they are Russian propagandists, they say what they are told or what will put them in favor (or at least create a 'paper trail'). If they are Trumpists, they are rooting for Biden to fail in Ukraine despite the fact that this a truly evil war of aggression, moving into a phase of slaughtering civilians to spur surrender.

They can't be people who don't consider the possibility of speculators betting on the effect of Putin ordering Russian suppliers to only take Rubles as payment - one hell of a late game bluff, seeing as complete boycott would be catastrophic. Not that Putin would pay the price.
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This was explicitly a package of sanctions designed to bring Russia to its knees, yet there's no signs of that happening. Has most of the world joined in on imposing sanctions? Has the flow of gas to the EU and Asia been cut? Has this changed Putin's calculations at all regarding Ukraine? Has this caused widespread discontent? Is this nearly as bad as the 1998 crisis? If the answers to those questions are no, then the goal has not been met.
 
Juin said:
The sad part about the tragedy playing out there is that Nato is careful not to shed a drop of blood. A pervesion of 'blood and guts'. Ukarainian blood, Nato guts.
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Killing Russians to the last Ukrainian indeed.
 
Mr Person said:
Are they Trumpists or are they Russian propaganda posters? The real worry is that you have to ask, then have to wonder whether it matters.
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It is both in my case. :) I am a certified Trumpist and have been pro Russian in my views. Do I need your permission to be either :)?



Mr Person said:
As just about everyone but them seem to understand, the valuation of the ruble was not the main goal of sanctions. Yet they run victory laps at a (temporary) recovery. Why?
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Maybe someone better inform Senile Joe. Senile Joe ran a victory lap when the Rouble stumbled. And he was cheered by pundits high and low.
 
Yakshi said:
Yes, rumor has it that Nigeria still wants Russian nesting dolls.
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Not heard of that rumour. Fine folks in your neck of woods describe Russia favourably as Nigeria with Snow. Is Nigeria now Russia without nesting dolls?
 
ChickenTendies said:
Killing Russians to the last Ukrainian indeed.
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Its an old trick in the books. The Brits are past masters at that. Imperialism 101. How do you think Her Britannic Majesty managed to rule the world with only a tiny army? The Brits always used some underdog to take down the big dog. Ukrainian blood will be used to take down Russia. EU will then step in afterwards to pick up the pieces.
 
Hamish Howl said:
Perhaps they're just feeling generous and are selling at a loss out of pure altruism.
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Russia- I should say Putin- has always sold gas and oil at very favourable prices. That is why Europe is hooked on Russian gas. If Putin is selling oil to India at 65% of present rate then it is not really a loss. That will be some $65 a barrel. Which is not lower than what it was before the spikes. It is likely it is also a long term contract, which is how Putin prefers it.
 
ChickenTendies said:
So what are the crippling effects on the Russian economy? Since the flow of gas from Russia hasn't seemed to cease.
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It has reduced in both volume and price. So, now you're only referencing two things and one of them poorly?
 
Juin said:
Its an old trick in the books. The Brits are past masters at that. Imperialism 101. How do you think Her Britannic Majesty managed to rule the world with only a tiny army? The Brits always used some underdog to take down the big dog. Ukrainian blood will be used to take down Russia. EU will then step in afterwards to pick up the pieces.
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It's also how the French fought the British, using us!
 
Hamish Howl said:
Which is why the Russians are selling oil at a 65% discount, right?
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Yes. The only rubles being purchased on the world market are by those who will buy exports from Russia as requires by Putin. The exports are sold at a third of the old price in rubles. So the actual buying power of the ruble has fallen but the world price against other currencies has not. It is a scam.
 
craig said:
Yes. The only rubles being purchased on the world market are by those who will buy exports from Russia as requires by Putin. The exports are sold at a third of the old price in rubles. So the actual buying power of the ruble has fallen but the world price against other currencies has not. It is a scam.
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I believe some citations are in order. You can just make a sweeping statement like that and get away with it. :)

No, it is not a scam. Before the invasion the Dollar sold at some 87 Roubles. Then it fell down to a low of some 150 Roubles for a Dollar. Then it rose back to 84 Roubles for a Dollar. That is not Fake News. It is right there in financial publications
 
Deuce said:
It has reduced in both volume and price. So, now you're only referencing two things and one of them poorly?
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From the EU end energy volume has also contracted and costs has spiked. Exponential spikes at that. This is not sanctioning at all. It is more like a circular firing squad between EU and Russia. All around sepuku

I am getting the impression the only one grinning to the bank is Fu Manchu in Beijing. Fu Manchu is getting more gas, at cheaper rates, and likely to get more competitive against Europe. Who wont want to be in Fu Manchu's shoes?
 
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