The REAL POLL: Trump had overtaken Biden!!!!

[tosca1]

Now we know why the sudden emergence of those so-called "soldiers are losers", and resurrecting McCain news about Trump!:mrgreen:


Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on “National Poll Suppression” as Trump Closes the Gap

August 31, 2020



President Donald Trump is overtaking Joe Biden, but you’d never know that because the polls containing this information are being hidden.

According to Rasmussen, one of America’s most popular polling firms, there is actual evidence pointing to the fact that Trump is doing far better than the media portray but this is being withheld from the public.


Rasmussen posted a screenshot of Real Clear Politics polling averages. Normally, these are updated every week and without fail, but as of this moment, they’re still showing older numbers.

Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on "National Poll Suppression" as Trump Closes the Gap

 

[Rexedgar]

I stopped @ “Rasmussen Blows..........”

:2wave:

 

[tosca1]

Monmouth Poll: Trump Is Closing the Gap in Pennsylvania

September 2, 2020


Now, at the start of September, that gap has halved, and Biden leads by only a little more than four points in the RCP average. A new survey from Monmouth University suggests that, among likely voters, that margin could be even smaller.


This change in survey data from Pennsylvania mirrors an overall shift in the battleground states as, over the last five or six weeks, Biden’s commanding lead has steadily shrunk.

In the overall RCP average of polling in the top battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin — Biden’s advantage has dropped from a more than six-point lead in late July to a lead of about 2.5 percent today.

Biden & Trump: Pennsylvania Poll Shows Shrinking Lead | National Review

 

[tosca1]

I stopped @ “Rasmussen Blows..........”

:2wave:

I understand.

It's hard for you to read the rest.....I know. :2wave:


Rasmussen has been among the few polls that got it right the last time.

 

[OlNate]

Now we know why the sudden emergence of those so-called "soldiers are losers", and resurrecting McCain news about Trump!:mrgreen:


Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on “National Poll Suppression” as Trump Closes the Gap

August 31, 2020



President Donald Trump is overtaking Joe Biden, but you’d never know that because the polls containing this information are being hidden.

According to Rasmussen, one of America’s most popular polling firms, there is actual evidence pointing to the fact that Trump is doing far better than the media portray but this is being withheld from the public.


Rasmussen posted a screenshot of Real Clear Politics polling averages. Normally, these are updated every week and without fail, but as of this moment, they’re still showing older numbers.

Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on "National Poll Suppression" as Trump Closes the Gap

As a Canadian, it confuses me why you'd be so smug about this. Trump winning this election will directly hurt us, along with many "ally" countries around the world... It's not treason...but still, wtf?

 

[Common Sense 1]

I stopped @ “Rasmussen Blows..........”

:2wave:

Actually no one cares....... Move along please :2wave:

 

[SkyChief]

Polls are meaningless.

In September of 2016 the polls showed Hillary had a comfortable 11% to 14% lead over the Donald. . . We all know how that turned out.

The Polls that really matter are the ones on Election Day.

 

[Cardinal]

I stopped @ “Rasmussen Blows..........”

:2wave:

Nate Silver has something interesting to say about including Rasmussen in their averages in spite of being a crap poll:

There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a "shy Trump" effect.

People neglect the degree to which polling averages are themselves sort of a market-driven consensus. Their power of these averages comes as much from the fact that they incorporate different views about the electorate as that they provide for a larger sample size.

This also helps to explain why prediction markets have been largely unable to beat publicly-available polling-based models (e.g. 538's) over the years. The polling averages already account for many of the desirable characteristics of markets.

Market participants don't really get this IMO, so the markets sometimes wind up doing a sort of double-counting. They'll say "polls were skewed against Trump in 2016, so they might be again in 2020". Not at all crazy! But the polling averages *may already be accounting for this*.

If Clinton had won in 16, you wouldn't have as many Trafalgars publishing Trump +2 in every swing state. Pollsters wouldn't be doing as much education-weighting. Etc. Biden would likely have a larger lead *in the averages* even if his true standing in the electorate was the same.

Rasmussen and Trafalgar are not highly-rated pollsters. I would not bet on them being right this year. But I think our *averages* are likely stronger for including a *dose* of them because it reflects a fuller consensus; that's what this thread was about.

p.s. This only applies to 538, not RCP. If you *are* going to arbitrarily pick-and-choose which polls to include, then there's no good argument for including Ras & Trafalgar while excluding many other higher-rated pollsters.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301886506785746946

 

[Cardinal]

Polls are meaningless.

In September of 2016 the polls showed Hillary had a comfortable 11% to 14% lead over the Donald. . . We all know how that turned out.

The Polls that really matter are the ones on Election Day.

Operative word: "September."

We also know the conditions that led to that lead evaporating, and that those conditions don't exist today.

 

[Common Sense 1]

Biden is sinking that is why he has left his basement and is trying to convince someone to vote for him. Good luck with that task.




Monday, September 07, 2020

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance.

 

[X Factor]

As a Canadian, it confuses me why you'd be so smug about this. Trump winning this election will directly hurt us, along with many "ally" countries around the world... It's not treason...but still, wtf?

You’re joking right? For months, we’ve been smugly told that Trump doesn’t stand a chance.

 

[Perotista]

Now we know why the sudden emergence of those so-called "soldiers are losers", and resurrecting McCain news about Trump!:mrgreen:


Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on “National Poll Suppression” as Trump Closes the Gap

August 31, 2020



President Donald Trump is overtaking Joe Biden, but you’d never know that because the polls containing this information are being hidden.

According to Rasmussen, one of America’s most popular polling firms, there is actual evidence pointing to the fact that Trump is doing far better than the media portray but this is being withheld from the public.


Rasmussen posted a screenshot of Real Clear Politics polling averages. Normally, these are updated every week and without fail, but as of this moment, they’re still showing older numbers.

Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on "National Poll Suppression" as Trump Closes the Gap

RCP numbers are as 6 Sep 2020 and include Rasmussen.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

 

[Rexedgar]

I understand.

It's hard for you to read the rest.....I know. :2wave:


Rasmussen has been among the few polls that got it right the last time.

Actually no one cares....... Move along please :2wave:

Why is it alway Rasmussen when you lot start posting polling numbers.

CS1, you evidently care or you would have moved along.....:shrug:

 

[Mycroft]

As a Canadian, it confuses me why you'd be so smug about this. Trump winning this election will directly hurt us, along with many "ally" countries around the world... It's not treason...but still, wtf?

You'll get over it.

 

[Perotista]

I understand.

It's hard for you to read the rest.....I know. :2wave:


Rasmussen has been among the few polls that got it right the last time.

If you look at all the latest polls taken in 2016, all but IBD were within the MOE and hence accurate.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

 

[Chomsky]

Now we know why the sudden emergence of those so-called "soldiers are losers", and resurrecting McCain news about Trump!:mrgreen:


Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on “National Poll Suppression” as Trump Closes the Gap

August 31, 2020



President Donald Trump is overtaking Joe Biden, but you’d never know that because the polls containing this information are being hidden.

According to Rasmussen, one of America’s most popular polling firms, there is actual evidence pointing to the fact that Trump is doing far better than the media portray but this is being withheld from the public.


Rasmussen posted a screenshot of Real Clear Politics polling averages. Normally, these are updated every week and without fail, but as of this moment, they’re still showing older numbers.

Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on "National Poll Suppression" as Trump Closes the Gap

The bolded always starts after Labor day weekend, because:

1] Maximum political impact

2] Maximum profit

But you are right, in that the battlegrounds have tightened.

 

[Captain Adverse]

As a Canadian, it confuses me why you'd be so smug about this. Trump winning this election will directly hurt us, along with many "ally" countries around the world... It's not treason...but still, wtf?

As a Canadian (albeit one whose opinions I typically appreciate) why must your concerns of a Trump victory matter when and if enough of us decide in the USA he will help America?

That's the JOB of our national representatives at all levels, as it is the JOB of YOUR government leaders to work on helping Canada. You elect those leaders there. WE will chose here.

So as many of us selected back in 2016, and hope to elect again in 2020, it is OUR business to elect those WE feel best serve the interests of OUR nation. However they declare they may do that.

 

[Chomsky]

RCP numbers are as 6 Sep 2020 and include Rasmussen.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

He is right though, in that the battlegrounds tightened a bit. Though after looking at your current link to RCP, it seems they may have unwound a bit again.

The trouble is national polling is often higher quality than state polling. So, I'm calling it off that - too. 3 pts nationally or less, Biden loses. 4, and it starts leaning toward Biden. 5 is pretty solidly - Biden. 6 or more, is Biden all the way. Of course, that's just my opinion.

 

[Paradoxical]

Now we know why the sudden emergence of those so-called "soldiers are losers", and resurrecting McCain news about Trump!:mrgreen:


Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on “National Poll Suppression” as Trump Closes the Gap

August 31, 2020



President Donald Trump is overtaking Joe Biden, but you’d never know that because the polls containing this information are being hidden.

According to Rasmussen, one of America’s most popular polling firms, there is actual evidence pointing to the fact that Trump is doing far better than the media portray but this is being withheld from the public.


Rasmussen posted a screenshot of Real Clear Politics polling averages. Normally, these are updated every week and without fail, but as of this moment, they’re still showing older numbers.

Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on "National Poll Suppression" as Trump Closes the Gap

The Goebbelsian news does this sorft of thing all the time. They want Biden to win and want to portray strength for Biden. Low poll numbers won't.

 

[Paradoxical]

As a Canadian, it confuses me why you'd be so smug about this. Trump winning this election will directly hurt us, along with many "ally" countries around the world... It's not treason...but still, wtf?

Stay in Canada, please. Don't come to America with your far left PC ideas.

 

[Paradoxical]

Polls are meaningless.

In September of 2016 the polls showed Hillary had a comfortable 11% to 14% lead over the Donald. . . We all know how that turned out.

The Polls that really matter are the ones on Election Day.

This is correct. People dot know who a pollster is. It could be a BLM or ANTIFA trickster who would kill you w=for a wrong answer. So, they say Biden.

 

[OrphanSlug]

If you look at all the latest polls taken in 2016, all but IBD were within the MOE and hence accurate.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein

Forget it, the OP is all about fanning the flames and promoting hatred.

 

[paul342160]

If Trump wins in November. it'll be time for 45 to 52 % of Americans to leave
the United States because none of us believe anything that Trump says.

If anyone doesn't vote or if anyone votes too late, they deserve to listen to Trumps's lies for four more years.

I'll be so happy if he goes to jail with all of his friends like Bernie Maddof (spelling?)

Canada is looking very attractive.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

As a Canadian, it confuses me why you'd be so smug about this. Trump winning this election will directly hurt us, along with many "ally" countries around the world... It's not treason...but still, wtf?

It only hurts you because you have a soyboy prime minister with Marxist sympathies

 

[Casper]

Actually no one cares....... Move along please :2wave:

Pretty much what everyone says when a Rass poll comes out, funny how they disagree with EVERY other poll out there....yes, please move alongeace