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The REAL POLL: Trump had overtaken Biden!!!!

Cardinal said:
Operative word: "September."

We also know the conditions that led to that lead evaporating, and that those conditions don't exist today.
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Lol, it’s worse because Biden can’t complete a comprehensible sentence in English. Which is why Pelosi is already trying to make excuses to get him out of a debate. We all know he’s being crushed in the mock debates.

And now by the first week of September people are roasting Alive in California because politicians have valued eco extremists over power consumers, crime is out of control, rioters are burning down cities, and Joe Biden’s supporters are assasinating Trump supporters in Portland and Biden won’t even condemn it.

October will be far worse for Biden then it ever was for Hillary
 
EMNofSeattle said:
It only hurts you because you have a soyboy prime minister with Marxist sympathies
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Yet, You support a wanna be Dictator, funny how that works out, the outsider sees more clearly than the insider.
 
Paradoxical said:
This is correct. People dot know who a pollster is. It could be a BLM or ANTIFA trickster who would kill you w=for a wrong answer. So, they say Biden.
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There really is no such thing as an accurate poll anymore. The samples are skewed, and a lot of people are too worried about privacy to participate. Then there's the problem with landline phones. There aren't too many anymore, so it's not like somebody can run through names in the telephone book. Some of these polls are online so the respondents have an agenda. They really matter much anymore. Thanks!!
 
Perotista said:
RCP numbers are as 6 Sep 2020 and include Rasmussen.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden
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But, but, but, BENGHAZI!

LOL!

I clicked on the RCP link. Thanks for some levity.

The polls on that page, that reflect Biden in the lead, are printed in blue.
The polls on that page that reflect Trump in the lead, are printed in red

The usual suspects not withstanding, (ie: FOX, Rassmussen, Emerson) it is a sea of blue.

I had no idea Trump was in that bad of shape.

What Trump has to do, if he wants to add to his convention bump, is to keep pushing racial and left/right divide and infuriate enough of the left to protest, and, at the same time, instill as much fear in the white population that crazy people of color from democrat cities are coming to their little gated communities to spray paint BLM on their car and burn their house down. Trump would have no problem getting the media coverage he would need. One thing you gotta admit. Trump is a master at attracting the camera's eye. Then, the election narrative will be tribal and "circle the wagons" against blacks, browns, whites, democrats, antifa, libbos, queers and drag queens, vs. actual issues like healthcare, infrastructure, education, defense, deficit. You know, all those boring issues the media finds too boring to talk about.

You scare enough white independents into believing the zombies are coming, I can see Trumps polling getting better.

The real question is, how many white folks would actually fall for that? Although, we don't know the answer to that question yet, my personal observations have already told me that it's far more than I would have imagined. I see the fear becoming entrenched in some folks I know, people, friends, family, colleagues, co-workers, I know. They are not the usual Trumptard kind of people. In fact, they cant's stand the guy. (And they are also not big Biden fans either.) I would never imagine they would get behind Trump. They probably won't. Hard to say. But they see all the media coverage of BLM rioting and they are fertile soil for Trump's "divide and conquer" tactic. Sadly, I can see that working for Trump.

But, all that said. Screw the polls. Don't believe 'em. (Sea of blue favoring Biden duly noted though.) Vote.

I wish congress would pass a law saying that after each presidential election, we would not have to suffer all these election gimmicks for at least 3 years. Policicking for an election should be limited to 6 to 9 months. I'm so sick of all the non-stop politics. We could all use a break. :roll:
 
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Rassmusen is one of many polls used to see the pulse of the country. It's best to look at the average rather than the outliners. In reality, Biden has about 212 electoral college votes locked up and leading in 10 out of 14 states listed as toss-ups by RCP. Trump still needs some lucky breaks within the next month and a half. I am not saying he can't do it, but the odds against him.
 
Whatever redstate.com article helps you sleep at night.
 
Logophile said:
There really is no such thing as an accurate poll anymore. The samples are skewed, and a lot of people are too worried about privacy to participate. Then there's the problem with landline phones. There aren't too many anymore, so it's not like somebody can run through names in the telephone book. Some of these polls are online so the respondents have an agenda. They really matter much anymore. Thanks!!
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All great points. I hadn't considered that there aren't many landlines anymore and people with an area code for Texas could really live in Idaho. So, unless that pollster wins the confidence of the person he's speaking with rapidly and PROVES he is a real pollster, there would be problems. The cell phone thing is a real dilemma because it's not like anyone knows anymore who has that number, their age, their religion, their political lean, etc. Unless the pollster is spending several minutes with someone, how can he know that person. Then too, you get a pollster who may himself lean heavily to Biden asking questions in a tone of voice that would suggest he wants a favorable answer. For all the pollster knows nowadays though is what the person on the cell phone tells him and depending on the tone of voice, inflection and the series in which questions are asked, the pollster can lead the witness, so to speak.
 
EMNofSeattle said:
Lol, it’s worse because Biden can’t complete a comprehensible sentence
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Making fun of stutterers then. No need to finish the rest of that post.
 
I think it was predicted that the polls would tighten the closer we got to the election....and so it is.
 
Moot said:
I think it was predicted that the polls would tighten the closer we got to the election....and so it is.
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Ehhh...not really. The part of trump’s base that left him in July came right back just like they always do after every trump scandal. The dynamic actually hasn’t changed that much.

When his support was down to 40% I said, “hold on, it’ll be back to 44% in a few weeks.” My timing was off but the prediction was basically right. I don’t think you’re going to see Biden’s lead go below 5, and it’s quite likely it’s permanently cemented at 7-7.5.
 
It’s always amusing to these polling debates... Polling is useful for campaigns to gauge the effectiveness of their campaigns and little else.. They are interesting for us lay people to read and discuss but trying to predict who will win using polls is really not that rational, especially this far out. There are all kinds of scenarios from the most extreme to simple things like weather that can have a big impact on the elections.
 
BlueTex said:
It’s always amusing to these polling debates... Polling is useful for campaigns to gauge the effectiveness of their campaigns and little else.. They are interesting for us lay people to read and discuss but trying to predict who will win using polls is really not that rational, especially this far out. There are all kinds of scenarios from the most extreme to simple things like weather that can have a big impact on the elections.
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I can stop following polls any time I want.
 
Cardinal said:
Ehhh...not really. The part of trump’s base that left him in July came right back just like they always do after every trump scandal. The dynamic actually hasn’t changed that much.

When his support was down to 40% I said, “hold on, it’ll be back to 44% in a few weeks.” My timing was off but the prediction was basically right. I don’t think you’re going to see Biden’s lead go below 5, and it’s quite likely it’s permanently cemented at 7-7.5.
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Well, I certainly hope you're right. But the battleground states polls do appear to be tightening up.
 
Cardinal said:
I can stop following polls any time I want.
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If someone wants to do a poll as to whether or not more people favor socialism, all he need do is ask if they would like stuff given to them for free. Then he reports that society favors socialistic ideas.
 
tosca1 said:
Now we know why the sudden emergence of those so-called "soldiers are losers", and resurrecting McCain news about Trump!:mrgreen:


Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on “National Poll Suppression” as Trump Closes the Gap

August 31, 2020



President Donald Trump is overtaking Joe Biden, but you’d never know that because the polls containing this information are being hidden.

According to Rasmussen, one of America’s most popular polling firms, there is actual evidence pointing to the fact that Trump is doing far better than the media portray but this is being withheld from the public.


Rasmussen posted a screenshot of Real Clear Politics polling averages. Normally, these are updated every week and without fail, but as of this moment, they’re still showing older numbers.

Rasmussen Blows the Whistle on "National Poll Suppression" as Trump Closes the Gap
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Out of curiosity, what benefit do you think "the media" gains from saying that Trump is behind if he is not?
 
Paradoxical said:
All great points. I hadn't considered that there aren't many landlines anymore and people with an area code for Texas could really live in Idaho. So, unless that pollster wins the confidence of the person he's speaking with rapidly and PROVES he is a real pollster, there would be problems. The cell phone thing is a real dilemma because it's not like anyone knows anymore who has that number, their age, their religion, their political lean, etc. Unless the pollster is spending several minutes with someone, how can he know that person. Then too, you get a pollster who may himself lean heavily to Biden asking questions in a tone of voice that would suggest he wants a favorable answer. For all the pollster knows nowadays though is what the person on the cell phone tells him and depending on the tone of voice, inflection and the series in which questions are asked, the pollster can lead the witness, so to speak.
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Exactly. And there's the mail. I just got a "poll" from Harris something. I mean, what kind of person is going to sit down and answer all those questions and make the effort to mail it back?? My guess is, somebody awfully bored or somebody with an agenda, most likely with an ax to grind, or both. Republican Trump is already in office, so it's likely that the majority of respondents - angry enough to want to make a statement - are going to be Democrat.

You made some good points on the cell phone business. I know for me, I rarely even answer a phone number I don't recognize, so polling isn't what it used to be. And the street corner polling is even more unreliable, given Covid. The majority of those respondents are probably going to be young and/or unemployed. Thanks!!
 
Paradoxical said:
Canadians are free thinkers. Pierre Trudeau demands PC.
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Well, Ol Nate isn't Pierre Trudeau and you just cancel cultured his country because he wasn't your kind of PC.

Anyhooo...lets get back to the polls, shall we?
 
tosca1 said:
Rasmussen has been among the few polls that got it right the last time.
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They are also the same polling that said Romney was going to be president. :lamo
 
Cardinal said:
Operative word: "September."

We also know the conditions that led to that lead evaporating, and that those conditions don't exist today.
Click to expand...

Yes it was late deciders that made the difference for Trump in 2016. Comey's bombshell was likely behind them breaking for Trump.

Real change in vote preference during the final week or so of the campaign. About 13 percent of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania decided on their presidential vote choice in the final week, according to the best available data. These voters broke for Trump by near 30 points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania.
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An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR
 
iguanaman said:
Yes it was late deciders that made the difference for Trump in 2016. Comey's bombshell was likely behind them breaking for Trump.



An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S. - AAPOR
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Yep, it was the Comey letter.

From where we're sitting now, it seems pretty obvious that Barr is going to announce a criminal investigation into Biden or that evidence smuggled from Russia through Ukraine is going to come out about Biden corruption.

The only difference is that the FBI had respectability then and now we accept that the DOJ has been thoroughly corrupted. Also, as a result of Trump getting busted last year, we're all primed and prepped for more false Ukraine narratives to come out.

Point being, a 2020 version of the Comey letter isn't going to work this time around.
 
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