First, your piece is a dailyKOS article with “Teabagger” littered throughout it. This is kind of like going to The Free Republican circa 2006 and asking if Anti-War movement candidates have a chance and actually taking it seriously. There’s slant, and then there’s a sheer cliff and the DailyKOS is far closer to the sheer cliff side of things.
Second, no, I don’t think it will hurt them. One of the issues for 2006 was the massive disinterest and anger on the part of Republicans. The desire to donate to campaigns was reduced, the desire to talk up candidates to other people was reduced, the desire to get up and actually vote was reduced, the desire to simply be passionate was reduced. The base was apathetic and frankly angry and it caused problems. In 2008 we saw a repeat of this as the base was apathetic and essentially asleep, despite McCain’s pathetic attempt at pretending to be Joe Conservative, until the point that Palin was on the ticket and likely is the only reason it wasn’t a legitimate landslide loss.
What the Tea Party and candidates adhering to its principles represent is multifaceted. Most importantly it represents an energized, excited base that is likely to be active with their pocket books, with their time, and with their words. All three things are extremely important when talking about congressional elections on a non-presidential year as the number of people likely to be paying attention to politics without urging from others is likely to be smaller.
It also presents a platform that is focused far greater on fiscal and governmental conservativism rather than the extremely heavy handed use of Social Conservativism as the focus in the recent past. It puts forth a balanced message, however tailoring the social message in many states less on simply abortion or gay marriage, the latter of which goes in conflict with other portions of conservative ideology, and more on things like Immigration which actually forms good synergy with other tenants of conservative ideology. While I do expect critics to latch onto the loud, but vocal, minority of idiots within the Tea Party movement and the talking points of those individuals, I believe the candidates and the MAJORITY of Tea Partiers will be exhorting the actual broad based and reasonable platform found in the Contract From America. Values and views I think, if delivered well and brought up by active supporters, could perform far better with independents and moderates than many on the far left attempt to lead people to believe through obfuscation by focusing on the vocal minority.
However, another big bonus is that not only do I see it potentially helping motivate the republican base, and possibly attracting some independents and moderates, but that it possibly can be seen as the party reaching back out to the libertarian wing of the Conservative family tree in an attempt to say “We are no longer going to put many of your important ideals on the back burner, but bring it up to even keel with the rest of the platform.” While ultimately the strictest of libertarians are likely to remain voting libertarian, I can see some more moderate ones viewing the chance to get legitimate fiscal and governmental conservatism into the government at the cost of a few social and military issues they dislike as worthwhile and far more genuine this time out then previously.
I do not think it’ll be easy, and I think the senate is the only reasonable location that I think can be won this time out, however I do think that there is potential for a large victory and I do think the Tea Party movement, mixed with a general anti-establishment movement, are part of the reason for that. And while taking back the house is highly unlikely, there is the chance to gain enough that with more moderate democrats in some of the seats the ability to block certain legislation will go up significantly even if its not a republican majority.