Stock declines signal a bear market; here’s what that means (1 Viewer)

[gbg3]

I think we're to the decided point in the market now. Up until now, there have been a lot of buyers of dips. Now, it appears to have nowhere to go but down and the volatility index is finally making a notable move up. The question is how bad will this bear market be and how long will the recession (which many think we're already in) last. History provides quite a wide variety of answers/options to that question.

The S&P 500 is in a bear market; here’s what that means

Wall Street opened the week with heavy losses that put the benchmark S&P 500 at a level considered to be a so-called bear market. Rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine and China’s economic slowdown are leading investors to reconsider what they’re willing to pay for a wide range of stocks...

apnews.com

 

[reflechissez]

I think we're to the decided point in the market now. Up until now, there have been a lot of buyers of dips. Now, it appears to have nowhere to go but down and the volatility index is finally making a notable move up. The question is how bad will this bear market be and how long will the recession (which many think we're already in) last. History provides quite a wide variety of answers/options to that question.

The S&P 500 is in a bear market; here’s what that means

Wall Street opened the week with heavy losses that put the benchmark S&P 500 at a level considered to be a so-called bear market. Rising interest rates, the war in Ukraine and China’s economic slowdown are leading investors to reconsider what they’re willing to pay for a wide range of stocks...

apnews.com

ok

 

[Slartibartfast]

The Federal Bank is raising rates.

 

[Nomad4Ever]

I don't think this is anything more than a poor market. Other economic numbers are ok. If the housing market collapses then we really will see a recession.

 

[Geoist]

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

A lot of retail investors thought Warren Buffet meant you should buy when the S&P is down 5%.

The stock market may have a bit to go yet before it turns around. Several months, perhaps. All I know is the more it goes down the more I will be buying into quality companies.

 

[Geoist]

I don't think this is anything more than a poor market. Other economic numbers are ok. If the housing market collapses then we really will see a recession.

We could be nearing that point. Mortgage rates are sky high but buyers are dwindling.

 

[phoenix2020]

Today’s a solid Buy day for me.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

If the fed aggressively targets inflation

Dow low mid 20 000,

Strong recession with unemployment hitting 8 to 10%

Governments deficit will hit 1.8 trillion

Should not be as bad as 2008, but government has less room to adjust with high debt levels.

Canada if interest rates go quite high will collapse economically. Very high personal debt levels tied to housing which is at insane levels. People and banks would go bankrupt at high levels

 

[Ethel2]

The Federal Bank is raising rates.

As well they should. Inflation is the number one economic problem right now. The economy always goes in cycles. I am not in the least worried about the stock market. Stocks/mutual funds should be viewed as a long term investment IMO.

 

[gbg3]

We could be nearing that point. Mortgage rates are sky high but buyers are dwindling.

I agree we could be nearing that point. All the sudden, I see for sale signs on houses sitting instead of being up and gone (or changing to a sold sign) within days.

 

[RAMOSS]

Today’s a solid Buy day for me.

Not for a couple of months for me. The market is not being kept artifically high by tax cuts to the rich, and subsidies to the wealthy.

 

[gbg3]

Today’s a solid Buy day for me.

Yep, my husband and I just finished a discussion and decided to do a small/incremental buy today. We're long term investors at this point in life - maybe even meaning long term as in until death and thus for our kid's inheritance. We don't have a ton to invest right now but we have some we've been waiting a couple years for a good opportunity.

 

[gbg3]

If the fed aggressively targets inflation

Dow low mid 20 000,

Strong recession with unemployment hitting 8 to 10%

Governments deficit will hit 1.8 trillion

Should not be as bad as 2008, but government has less room to adjust with high debt levels.

Canada if interest rates go quite high will collapse economically. Very high personal debt levels tied to housing which is at insane levels. People and banks would go bankrupt at high levels

Dow 25,000 wouldn't surprise me. It's about what I'm taking a wild guess will be a potential low.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Dow 25,000 wouldn't surprise me. It's about what I'm taking a wild guess will be a potential low.

A mild recession should have hit in 2018, 2019 but that around the time Trump provided stimulus ( tax cuts, increased spending and higher deficits) Then covid hit with massive stimulus, and massive government deficits. This time I am confused as to what will occur, a 1982 style crash caused by the fed, or longer term stagflation.

Canada has to go the stagflation route or face economic collapse

 

[Deuce]

I haven't seen even one bear yet this is bullshit

 

[gbg3]

Yep, my husband and I just finished a discussion and decided to do a small/incremental buy today. We're long term investors at this point in life - maybe even meaning long term as in until death and thus for our kid's inheritance. We don't have a ton to invest right now but we have some we've been waiting a couple years for a good opportunity.

I haven't taken this action yet today and will put this small buy on hold if we keep recovering from the huge morning drop. The VIX was up over 20% today but is moderating a bit now. We'll see how the closing hour looks today. Then, the Fed meets tomorrow/Wed and we'll see if they go 50 or 75 basis points on Wed and how the market responds.

 

[reflechissez]

If the fed aggressively targets inflation

Dow low mid 20 000,

Strong recession with unemployment hitting 8 to 10%

Governments deficit will hit 1.8 trillion

Should not be as bad as 2008, but government has less room to adjust with high debt levels.

Canada if interest rates go quite high will collapse economically. Very high personal debt levels tied to housing which is at insane levels. People and banks would go bankrupt at high levels

Why?

 

[Cardinal]

Stupid question time: how much of the stock market becoming a bear market is people talking about a bear market?

 

[reflechissez]

I haven't taken this action yet today and will put this small buy on hold if we keep recovering from the huge morning drop. The VIX was up over 20% today but is moderating a bit now. We'll see how the closing hour looks today. Then, the Fed meets tomorrow/Wed and we'll see if they go 50 or 75 basis points on Wed and how the market responds.

This is the conversation of an inexperienced investor.

 

[highroller]

Should not be as bad as 2008, but government has less room to adjust with high debt levels.

Thanks Trump. (And Bush and Obama and Biden.)

TEA Party can **** right off.

 

[ElChupacabra]

Stupid question time: how much of the stock market becoming a bear market is people talking about a bear market?

Yep. Kind of like the fear of inflation results in a self fulfilling prophesy.

 

[Winston]

Stupid question time: how much of the stock market becoming a bear market is people talking about a bear market?

20% down from recent highs over a sustained amount of time

Edit: just saw that wasn’t your question.

To answer that question: sentiment is a big driver of markets so - a lot

 

[Napoleon]

I don't think this is anything more than a poor market. Other economic numbers are ok. If the housing market collapses then we really will see a recession.

The Fed is doing its best to collapse the housing market with these rate increases and it’s working.

 

[bave]

The Fed is doing its best to collapse the housing market with these rate increases and it’s working.

The FRB *has* to pop various asset bubbles and induce a recession to get inflation under control.

This is what delayed medicine looks like for 10 years.

 

[vegas giants]

The FRB *has* to pop various asset bubbles and induce a recession to get inflation under control.

This is what delayed medicine looks like for 10 years.

Fine with me. I made bank in the market for 10 years