Republicans may block Trump from another shutdown

[Perotista]

The big surprise for me of those six GOP Senators to flip last week was your Isakson. The 2020 Senate map is a rerun of 2014, when the GOP flipped Nine seats. This was the election where McConnell defeated the far-right in primaries, as compared to previous terms.

Democrats start 2020 with one loss in AL. Of their nine losses in 2014 — AK, MT, SD, IA, WV, NC, AR, LA, and CO — only CO, NC, and IA are available. AZ and ME are being mentioned in early ratings. Much bigger stretches are KS, KY, TX and GA.

The one thing we both know about McConnell is that he will protect his hold on the GOP Senate above all else.

Isakson is no Trumper. Perdue, yes, Isakson no. He has always been of the more moderate branch of the GOP. Isakson came along when Georgia was making the switch from Democratic to Republican. He replaced Zell Miller in 2005 when Miller retired. Those two along with Sam Nunn were much alike. None of them could be called died in the wool, party firsters and all three were moderate compared to their counterparts.

The problem today in Georgia is the far wacko left has taken over the Democratic Party while the far wacko right has the Republican Party. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Trumpers try to primary Isakson out. I supported Sam, Zell and Johnny, it's hard to support anyone running for elected office today from either party. At least down here.

 

[Rich2018]

Could have kept his "promise" easily during the first two years and especially in year two if Trump ever really wanted the thing.

Did he really have the support ?

Or was it just complacency or laziness...suddenly Trump realizes the Democrats are in a position to block his wall program.


But I take your point, for such a central plank of policy, his signature promise should have been top of the agenda from day 1.


Yet suddenly it's now an "emergency".

 

[Perotista]

They weren't DonDon. DonDon poses a particular type of threat only approached by the awful Jimmy Carter. That said, Carter was as much like DonDon as any former President we have had in the modern era and shutdowns during his term of office are good proof of that both for their term and frequency. Obama had one relatively long shutdown, Clinton had one and now Trump is the world record holder. Carter on the other hand holds the world record for total days of shutdown totally 66 days over 6 shutdowns during one paltry four year term. The rest of the shutdowns are relatively modest events of 1 day (4) , 3 days (4) , 4 days (2) one of 5 days and one of 7 days.

Worth reviewing here my list of modern disasters as President. The three worst Presidents of the modern era are Trump, Obama, Bush 43, each worse than the last in quick succession with Trump so awful that we would have to elect Bugs Bunny next to continue this trend of awful. Then we leapfrog over a few less than perfect but pretty decent Presidents to add Jimmy Carter to the list of worst 4 of the modern era.

Carter deserves his spot for being most like Trump though without the bluster. Both are in fact sniveling weaklings and micromanagers with Trump able to hide it under bluster and bark and Carter unable to hide it at all. Neither have or had the intellectual bandwidth to be President. Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton were not perfect but they were head and shoulders better than the four I have called out in my modern era Presidential Hall of Shame. Clinton would have had a truly decent run if he could have kept his fly zipped and and followed the one golden rule of politics: YOU DON'T BOINK THE INTERNS! He took what would have been a pretty decent two term Presidency and a decent legacy and threw it in the trash can. Clinton rates fifth worst in my list of terrible modern Presidents. Lets all chip in and give NASA the money to shoot Bill and Hillary off to the moon.

Bush 41 and Reagan for all their faults not the least of which in my case are issues with their baseline politics were and are far and away the best Presidents of the last seven of them, literally towering over the other five with Trump well on his way to all time worst President regardless of era. He is pushing Buchanan hard at this point. I could rate them all the way back to WW2 if anybody would like. It hardly seems worth it since a good many of you were in diapers when Ford took office.

I was born right after WWII, Eisenhower was the first president I personally remember experiencing. I became interested in politics watching the Republican and Democratic conventions on TV back in 1956. We only had two channels back then and both closed at midnight and opened again at five in the morning. I wonder how many remember that test pattern?

If I had to rank all the president I personally experienced, IKE would be number one, JFK two. Reagan and Bill Clinton three and four or vice versa depending on which side of the bed I got up on. I don't hold Trump to any higher or lower standard than any other president I have experienced. I will admit that he is the first president I not comfortable with. I don't like the man, but will support his policies when I'm for them, oppose the one's I'm against. I have done that with every other president.

 

[Rich2018]

Don't be silly. American leaders of the past gave the president the power to veto bills he didn't like and I'm sure they expected presidents to use that power.

But when Congress has repeatedly voted against something, the Constitution does not allow for a president to use emergency powers to circumnavigate due process.


Could Trump use emergency powers to postpone the 2020 election ?

 

[JacksinPA]

Find a church & light a candle. It may not accomplish anything but there is always hope.

 

[jnug]

Did he really have the support ?

Or was it just complacency or laziness...suddenly Trump realizes the Democrats are in a position to block his wall program.


But I take your point, for such a central plank of policy, his signature promise should have been top of the agenda from day 1.


Yet suddenly it's now an "emergency".

Did not matter. The GOP could have used its Reconciliation shot in 2018 for the Wall just as they used it in 2017 for the tax bill. Had they done that, Trump could have had his Wall and anything else border security on a simple majority vote in both Houses at a time when the GOP had simple majorities in both Houses. As I offered in another thread...it would have been as easy as BING....BANG....BONG....WALL! Now any fight over doing it with simple GOP majorities would have exposed the real problem here. Nobody with a brain wants this stupid Wall! My guess....the GOP would have just gone along with Trump to get along. What else have they done for two years?

 

[EMNofSeattle]

But when Congress has repeatedly voted against something, the Constitution does not allow for a president to use emergency powers to circumnavigate due process.


Could Trump use emergency powers to postpone the 2020 election ?

No, the law Trump is considering using for the border does not allow for that neither would such a law be constitutional. The law does permit the president to use the military for a broad range of emergencies and specifically references fortifications

 

[JacksinPA]

But when Congress has repeatedly voted against something, the Constitution does not allow for a president to use emergency powers to circumnavigate due process.


Could Trump use emergency powers to postpone the 2020 election ?

IOW, make himself dictator as Hitler did in 1933 with the Enabling Act after the Reichstag Fire? See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933

 

[Rosie1]

Since the shutdown cost 11 billion dollars (as per CBS news), it would be insane to let Trump shut the government down again.That's more than enough for his stupid wall and lots of other security crap!

 

[Linc]

Isakson is no Trumper. Perdue, yes, Isakson no. He has always been of the more moderate branch of the GOP. Isakson came along when Georgia was making the switch from Democratic to Republican. He replaced Zell Miller in 2005 when Miller retired. Those two along with Sam Nunn were much alike. None of them could be called died in the wool, party firsters and all three were moderate compared to their counterparts.

The problem today in Georgia is the far wacko left has taken over the Democratic Party while the far wacko right has the Republican Party. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the Trumpers try to primary Isakson out. I supported Sam, Zell and Johnny, it's hard to support anyone running for elected office today from either party. At least down here.

It’s hard to think of anything up here right now except wind chills hitting minus 50 the next two mornings. School’s been cancelled the next two days, but e-education is tough for families without the internet, and not every school lets out their computers and such.

With Stacey Abrams giving the Democratic response to #45 next Tuesday, and being drafted by Schumer, that’s your race in 2020 against Sen. Perdue. Your 50% plus one rule could come into play again, since you do have those annoying Libertarians.

I’m sure you’ve seen early ratings for the House and Senate. As usual, Democrats are running their mouths in public, telling the GOP who to defend. Meanwhile, DEMs have to protect all of their newbies. And still we hear little about the map makers, the state legislatures.

I’d also like to see a detailed pan for the entire border. As well, where is México as far as patrolling its side of the border?

 

[jnug]

I was born right after WWII, Eisenhower was the first president I personally remember experiencing. I became interested in politics watching the Republican and Democratic conventions on TV back in 1956. We only had two channels back then and both closed at midnight and opened again at five in the morning. I wonder how many remember that test pattern?

If I had to rank all the president I personally experienced, IKE would be number one, JFK two. Reagan and Bill Clinton three and four or vice versa depending on which side of the bed I got up on. I don't hold Trump to any higher or lower standard than any other president I have experienced. I will admit that he is the first president I not comfortable with. I don't like the man, but will support his policies when I'm for them, oppose the one's I'm against. I have done that with every other president.

Ike ratea high in my book. Almost the only thing separating Jimmy Carter at 4th worst of the modern era from Trump at worst is that Carter was at the least a public servant. Trump is not. In fact, FDR oft considered one of our better Presidents was very much like Trump but with much more intellectual bandwidth and once again, a public servant. Truman did not have FDR's intellectual bandwidth but he believed in process and had a recognizable governmental process and was once again, a public servant.

LBJ is one of our most interesting Presidents of the Modern Era with a hard wall between his intellectual capacity for foreign policy and domestic policy. He could not see past John Foster Dulles and Walt Rostow in foreign policy but yet had the intellectual capacity to recognize that Reconstruction was not only a failure but that the country was STILL not living up to its potential or the aspirational goals of its founders nor even close to living up to them. LBJ was a very interesting guy in many ways though shunned by Easterners like myself.

Quite possibly the greatest tragedy in this country's modern history was the assassinations of the Kennedy brothers and MLK in the 60's. Lincoln's assassination was truly awful for the country. But I simply cannot rate that one assassination as being as significant as the three major assassinations of the 60's. Best to worst from WW2 forward for leadership, the key element to being Chief Executive and thus President? I would likely go: FDR, Ike, Bush 41 (best 4 year term of the modern era), Kennedy, Reagan, LBJ, Clinton, Nixon, Truman (caretaker), Ford (caretaker), Carter, Bush 43, Obama, Trump.

 

[poweRob]

But 60 Senate votes and a House majority overrides the Presidential veto.

Not quite. What you described will overturn a senatorial filibuster.

override of a veto - The process by which each chamber of Congress votes on a bill vetoed by the President. To pass a bill over the president's objections requires a two-thirds vote in each Chamber.

link...​

 

[OlNate]

Depends on how many of Trump's MAGA hat wearing core supporters they have in their area.

True...but one has to wonder how many of those there are left - plenty, to be sure...but enough?

 

[Lursa]

The reason republicans have a hard time getting good things done in Congress is that too many of them cave in to illogical, unreasonable, unethical, unyielding, corrupt democrat demands.

Name some of those "demands" that passed.

(And Republicans never gave in to the ACA, they got outvoted)

 

[Rich2018]

Not quite. What you described will overturn a senatorial filibuster.

override of a veto - The process by which each chamber of Congress votes on a bill vetoed by the President. To pass a bill over the president's objections requires a two-thirds vote in each Chamber.

link...​

Is that rounded to 66 or 67 Senate votes ?

 

[Rich2018]

True...but one has to wonder how many of those there are left - plenty, to be sure...but enough?

AS the presidential approval polls showed, Trump still has a hard core 35-37% support.

 

[Perotista]

It’s hard to think of anything up here right now except wind chills hitting minus 50 the next two mornings. School’s been cancelled the next two days, but e-education is tough for families without the internet, and not every school lets out their computers and such.

With Stacey Abrams giving the Democratic response to #45 next Tuesday, and being drafted by Schumer, that’s your race in 2020 against Sen. Perdue. Your 50% plus one rule could come into play again, since you do have those annoying Libertarians.

I’m sure you’ve seen early ratings for the House and Senate. As usual, Democrats are running their mouths in public, telling the GOP who to defend. Meanwhile, DEMs have to protect all of their newbies. And still we hear little about the map makers, the state legislatures.

I’d also like to see a detailed pan for the entire border. As well, where is México as far as patrolling its side of the border?

Libertarians probably make up around 6% of the electorate down here, perhaps even higher. It isn't unusual for a Libertarian candidate to receive 6-8% of the total vote. In a runoff, most libertarians will vote Republican. that is, those who come out to vote. I voted for Metz in the governors race since I couldn't stand either Kemp or Abrams. No run off there, probably because most libertarians voted for Kemp as everyone knew it was too close to call.

There were runoffs in the Secretary of State and public service commission where the Libertarian candidate received 5% of the vote. Then voted republican in the runoff as the GOP candidate for both ran away with the runoff.

Abrams in my opinion could possible beat Perdue if she move a bit more to the center. Perdue being a Trumper could very well work against him. Trump had an approval/disapproval here in Georgia of 53/35 in 2017, today it is 46/49. That's a drop of 7 points in approval and a big rise of 14 in disapproval in a bit over a year's time. Trump only beat Hillary by 5 points here, but that was because of the huge difference in the dislike factor. Hillary was much more disliked than Trump among independents which Trump won.

I've been taking a break from my forecasts until around the first of the year. Depending on whom the Democrats nominate and Trump runs for reelection, I think the Dems will retake the senate and the presidency. As long as they don't nominate another Hillary Clinton type candidate. They need to nominate someone whom can attract the independent voter. I'd still like to see them nominate a fresh young face from flyover country and not some tired old liberal from the Northeast. 2020 is the Democrat's election to lose, but so too was 2016 when they gave us Hillary Clinton.

 

[Perotista]

Ike ratea high in my book. Almost the only thing separating Jimmy Carter at 4th worst of the modern era from Trump at worst is that Carter was at the least a public servant. Trump is not. In fact, FDR oft considered one of our better Presidents was very much like Trump but with much more intellectual bandwidth and once again, a public servant. Truman did not have FDR's intellectual bandwidth but he believed in process and had a recognizable governmental process and was once again, a public servant.

LBJ is one of our most interesting Presidents of the Modern Era with a hard wall between his intellectual capacity for foreign policy and domestic policy. He could not see past John Foster Dulles and Walt Rostow in foreign policy but yet had the intellectual capacity to recognize that Reconstruction was not only a failure but that the country was STILL not living up to its potential or the aspirational goals of its founders nor even close to living up to them. LBJ was a very interesting guy in many ways though shunned by Easterners like myself.

Quite possibly the greatest tragedy in this country's modern history was the assassinations of the Kennedy brothers and MLK in the 60's. Lincoln's assassination was truly awful for the country. But I simply cannot rate that one assassination as being as significant as the three major assassinations of the 60's. Best to worst from WW2 forward for leadership, the key element to being Chief Executive and thus President? I would likely go: FDR, Ike, Bush 41 (best 4 year term of the modern era), Kennedy, Reagan, LBJ, Clinton, Nixon, Truman (caretaker), Ford (caretaker), Carter, Bush 43, Obama, Trump.

FDR was in a class by himself. FDR could connect with the American people and provided them with hope when that was needed. About the only two other presidents that comes close to connecting with the American people the way FDR did was Reagan and Bill Clinton.

LBJ, he swore up and down he wouldn't be known as the president who lost Vietnam as Truman was tagged as the president who lost China. Vietnam did him in, at least in the Democratic Party. The was the Democratic Party up and until Vietnam that was more or less the war hawk, globalist party with the GOP being the isolationist party. Vietnam turned the Democratic Party into the peace dove party at that time. I was shocked when LBJ announced he would run again for the presidency in 1968.

I didn't include FDR and Truman as I was going by the president's I personal experienced and could remember them being president. I was too young to remember anything about Truman. I was six when IKE won in 1952. That's why I started with him. Your bottom five are the same as mine, in the same places.

 

[Linc]

Libertarians probably make up around 6% of the electorate down here, perhaps even higher. It isn't unusual for a Libertarian candidate to receive 6-8% of the total vote. In a runoff, most libertarians will vote Republican. that is, those who come out to vote. I voted for Metz in the governors race since I couldn't stand either Kemp or Abrams. No run off there, probably because most libertarians voted for Kemp as everyone knew it was too close to call.

There were runoffs in the Secretary of State and public service commission where the Libertarian candidate received 5% of the vote. Then voted republican in the runoff as the GOP candidate for both ran away with the runoff.

Abrams in my opinion could possible beat Perdue if she move a bit more to the center. Perdue being a Trumper could very well work against him. Trump had an approval/disapproval here in Georgia of 53/35 in 2017, today it is 46/49. That's a drop of 7 points in approval and a big rise of 14 in disapproval in a bit over a year's time. Trump only beat Hillary by 5 points here, but that was because of the huge difference in the dislike factor. Hillary was much more disliked than Trump among independents which Trump won.

I've been taking a break from my forecasts until around the first of the year. Depending on whom the Democrats nominate and Trump runs for reelection, I think the Dems will retake the senate and the presidency. As long as they don't nominate another Hillary Clinton type candidate. They need to nominate someone whom can attract the independent voter. I'd still like to see them nominate a fresh young face from flyover country and not some tired old liberal from the Northeast. 2020 is the Democrat's election to lose, but so too was 2016 when they gave us Hillary Clinton.

Former Democratic Sen. Shelby, now a GOP, and the 16 other appropriators will finally meet tomorrow, on day 5 of 21 to reach a deal. We’ll see if this bi-partisan bicameral committee can make a deal that will be signed or can overcome a veto. We’ll be seeing two more years of these budget standoffs at the very least.

With each new election beginning the day after the last, finding overlap in the Middle becomes increasingly more difficult. Having a one term limit for Governor in Virginia appears to me to be the solution for our Presidency. We need to do away with looking over our shoulders at polls to tell us how to govern.

 

[marke]

But when Congress has repeatedly voted against something, the Constitution does not allow for a president to use emergency powers to circumnavigate due process.


Could Trump use emergency powers to postpone the 2020 election ?

Trump might get away with declaring a national disaster if thousands of Americans were devastated by a hurricane, a fire, or a government shutdown.

 

[poweRob]

Is that rounded to 66 or 67 Senate votes ?

I believe it's 67.

 

[marke]

Name some of those "demands" that passed.

(And Republicans never gave in to the ACA, they got outvoted)

Demand #1: 'We will continue funding Planned Parenthood no matter what damned conservatives think to the contrary.'

 

[Lursa]

Demand #1: 'We will continue funding Planned Parenthood no matter what damned conservatives think to the contrary.'

So Republicans jumped on & voted for that Democratic issue? Is that your claim?

What are "demands 2-5?" You did make it at least plural. And in your hyperbolic hysteria, made it sound like much more than 2.

 

[Perotista]

Former Democratic Sen. Shelby, now a GOP, and the 16 other appropriators will finally meet tomorrow, on day 5 of 21 to reach a deal. We’ll see if this bi-partisan bicameral committee can make a deal that will be signed or can overcome a veto. We’ll be seeing two more years of these budget standoffs at the very least.

With each new election beginning the day after the last, finding overlap in the Middle becomes increasingly more difficult. Having a one term limit for Governor in Virginia appears to me to be the solution for our Presidency. We need to do away with looking over our shoulders at polls to tell us how to govern.

I'm the opposite, I rather see the 22nd Amendment done away with. I don't think polls have much to do with how we are governed. It's more of the left or right agenda and the polls along with public wants and wishes be danged. Trump has done a lot of stuff going against the polls. But according to him and his supporters they're all fake polls anyway.

I think the problem is in the wave elections we have had. In 2006 when the Democrats took control of congress, a lot of very liberal democrats replaced the more moderate Republicans. Then in 2010 it was the reverse, very conservative republicans replace the more moderate democrats, the blue dogs who could and would work across the aisle to get things accomplished. We were left with hard core rightest and leftest in congress for the most part. the non-compromising, stand on principle at any cost congress. If you were willing to work with those across the aisle, that got you branded as a RINO or a DINO.

Look at the senate leadership, Reid, McConnell, now Schumer, all party firsters with no hint of working with the other side. Compare them to past leaders, Mitchell and Dole, Lott and Daschle and on back. Huge difference.

 

[Linc]

I'm the opposite, I rather see the 22nd Amendment done away with. I don't think polls have much to do with how we are governed. It's more of the left or right agenda and the polls along with public wants and wishes be danged. Trump has done a lot of stuff going against the polls. But according to him and his supporters they're all fake polls anyway.

I think the problem is in the wave elections we have had. In 2006 when the Democrats took control of congress, a lot of very liberal democrats replaced the more moderate Republicans. Then in 2010 it was the reverse, very conservative republicans replace the more moderate democrats, the blue dogs who could and would work across the aisle to get things accomplished. We were left with hard core rightest and leftest in congress for the most part. the non-compromising, stand on principle at any cost congress. If you were willing to work with those across the aisle, that got you branded as a RINO or a DINO.

Look at the senate leadership, Reid, McConnell, now Schumer, all party firsters with no hint of working with the other side. Compare them to past leaders, Mitchell and Dole, Lott and Daschle and on back. Huge difference.

It was Lott who blocked Clinton’s judicial appointments his last two years. Then, Daschle returned the favor until McConnell threatened the nuclear option in 2005. Isn’t historical revision grand? Gingrich gets his fair share of the blame, along with RW hate radio. Hillary getting involved in health care set the stage for 1994.

Some would say the cultural wars started with Nixon’s Southern Strategy. Others would blame that on the CRA. You and I have been able to see all of this division since the 1968 Chicago convention, though I’d say the USA has never really known a time in our history when we weren’t at each other’s throats, except when we were at war. Even then, we’ve been divided.

The Baby Boomers and older are handing the younger generations far too many deep, systemic problems. As for the next two years, each day will be will be like free fall without a parachute.