Putin is NOT crazy and the Russian invasion is NOT failing (1 Viewer)

[sanman]

I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.

He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.

Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Putin is NOT crazy and the Russian invasion is NOT failing. The West's delusions about this war - and its failure to understand the enemy - will prevent it from saving Ukraine, writes military analyst BILL ROGGIO​

Bill Roggio is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of FDD's Long war Journal. From 1991 to 1997, Roggio served as a signalman and infantryman in the U.S. Army and New Jersey National Guard

Wishful thinking has the upper hand in the battle to shape Western perceptions of the war in Ukraine.

Sympathy for the outnumbered and outgunned defenders of Kyiv has led to the exaggeration of Russian setbacks, misunderstanding of Russian strategy, and even baseless claims from amateur psychoanalysts that Putin has lost his mind.

A more sober analysis shows that Russia may have sought a knockout blow, but always had well-laid plans for follow-on assaults if its initial moves proved insufficient.

The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine.

We must be clear-eyed now that the war is underway.

Yet even the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy cloud their judgement.

Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback.

DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen.

But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Once again, U.S. and Western officials are falling into the trap of failing to understand the enemy and his objectives.

 

[Hypothetical]

I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.

He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.

Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

www.dailymail.co.uk

could be.
either way he is going to take Ukraine unless we act somehow to further stop him, or his own soldiers refuse to go forward or something. we should prepare for this as it seem our leaders appear unwilling to take further measures.

so, the real question is... what happens after that?

 

[sanman]

could be.
either way he is going to take Ukraine unless we act somehow to further stop him, or his own soldiers refuse to go forward or something. we should prepare for this as it seem our leaders appear unwilling to take further measures.

Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.

so, the real question is... what happens after that?

China invades Taiwan.

 

[independentusa]

I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.

He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.

Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

www.dailymail.co.uk

You are right, Ukraine will fall within the next two weeks, but what happens after that. First, this whole thing shows the weakness of the Russian military. And if this is going to plan, it was a very bad plan and it was a show of power, but poor planning. the American military would have been in the capital within a week. Will the Ukrainians just bow down to the Russians, or will it be another Afghanistan for the Russians. We will see. And Putin and the Russians have already paid a high price for attacking Ukraine and some of those sanctions will continue in the future. The Russian economy was not strong to begin with and it will be hurting for years even if some of the sanctions are removed.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

You are right, Ukraine will fall within the next two weeks, but what happens after that. First, this whole thing shows the weakness of the Russian military. And if this is going to plan, it was a very bad plan and it was a show of power, but poor planning. the American military would have been in the capital within a week. Will the Ukrainians just bow down to the Russians, or will it be another Afghanistan for the Russians. We will see. And Putin and the Russians have already paid a high price for attacking Ukraine and some of those sanctions will continue in the future. The Russian economy was not strong to begin with and it will be hurting for years even if some of the sanctions are removed.

We can remove the sanctions when Putin is dead....or overthrown and in prison, or in the Funny Farm in a straightjacket.

 

[Sabre]

Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.

You are having a picnic, a bear approaches so you toss him a little piece of meat so he will be good and go away and the bear takes it but, now the bear is now eyeing the picnic table. What do you think happens next?

 

[sanman]

You are right, Ukraine will fall within the next two weeks, but what happens after that. First, this whole thing shows the weakness of the Russian military. And if this is going to plan, it was a very bad plan and it was a show of power, but poor planning. the American military would have been in the capital within a week. Will the Ukrainians just bow down to the Russians, or will it be another Afghanistan for the Russians. We will see. And Putin and the Russians have already paid a high price for attacking Ukraine and some of those sanctions will continue in the future. The Russian economy was not strong to begin with and it will be hurting for years even if some of the sanctions are removed.

If it's supposed to be an Afghanistan, then who are supposed to be the jihadists? Don't tell me -- Azov Battalion and Svoboda -- the far right neo-Nazi groups?

If you consider that the Afghan jihad of the 1980s led to the rise of jihadist terrorism, including the 9-11 attacks, then what do you think would happen if you start arming a similar movement in Ukraine, a country whose nationalists fought on Hitler's side in WW2, and where nationalists have a history of ties with Nazi-leaning organizations?

Somehow I don't think that's going to work out well. But hey -- Fools Rush In Where Wise Men Fear to Tread -- so be my guest.

 

[sanman]

You are having a picnic, a bear approaches so you toss him a little piece of meat so he will be good and go away and the bear takes it but, now the bear is now eyeing the picnic table. What do you think happens next?

Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

You are having a picnic, a bear approaches so you toss him a little piece of meat so he will be good and go away and the bear takes it but, now the bear is now eyeing the picnic table. What do you think happens next?

You hurriedly stash all your food IN the car, thinking the problem is solved but OOOOPS!!

 

[Schism]

I noticed last weekend different talking heads on different channels were all floating the idea that Putin had become deranged, was suffering psychotic breaks, his puffy face may be sign he's on meds, etc.

It sounded like something the CIA was feeding the media as a pretext to attacking Russia.

The same gameplan was used as a pretext to take out Saddam, Gaddafi, Noriega, etc etc.

 

[Lursa]

Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.

Why should we take his word that that's where he'll stop? He lied the whole way up to the invasion.

What happens if Finland and/or Sweden joins NATO?

 

[sanman]

Why should we take his word that that's where he'll stop? He lied the whole way up to the invasion.

What happens if Finland and/or Sweden joins NATO?

It's a good question. Another useful question is why didn't they join NATO before? What were their reasons?

 

[Schism]

Why should we take his word that that's where he'll stop? He lied the whole way up to the invasion.

Just like the CIA lied us into Iraq. Shock and Awe. WMD's. Bad man with scuds. Ukraine isn't important enough for us to fight WW3, that's what Joe Brandon said.

What happens if Finland and/or Sweden joins NATO?

I guess they better hand out grenades like the Ukrainians did. Too bad Joe left all those weapons for the Taliban to scoop up.

 

[beefheart]

I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.

He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.

Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Who pays you to post?

 

[Lursa]

It's a good question. Another useful question is why didn't they join NATO before? What were their reasons?

Your questions arent really relevant (the past) in the context of the current crisis or the reactions of Putin to it.

 

[Lursa]

Just like the CIA lied us into Iraq. Shock and Awe. WMD's. Bad man with scuds. Ukraine isn't important enough for us to fight WW3, that's what Joe Brandon said.

Nice fantasy, have you tried Hollywood? OTOH, it's completely divorced from anything I've been posting.

I guess they better hand out grenades like the Ukrainians did. Too bad Joe left all those weapons for the Taliban to scoop up.

You're so bitter and triggered...and empty of valid discussion.

 

[The Stars Tremble]

"The Russian offensive is taking place on four separate fronts. On a fifth front, in eastern Ukraine, which Putin declared independent last week, Russian forces are tying down Ukrainian troops that are needed elsewhere."

Lol, Bill Roggio. "Tying down forces" is a damn good result for a weaker force on the defensive. If you weren't so biased you would see that as failure by the invading force.

If the Ukrainian military has the balls for it, they should continue to engage Russian forces outside of cities. Russia can, and if necessary will, destroy cities with artillery and rockets.

 

[Airyaman]

Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.



China invades Taiwan.

I bet you'd be all for ceding these areas back to Mexico, because they are historically Mexican. Right?

 

[cpwill]

I've interacted with Bill Roggio online, back when he was chronicling the War on Terror in Afghanistan, through his publication, The Long War Journal.

He says the Russian invasion of Ukraine is working according to plan. The Russians aren't amateurs. The West is simply deluding themselves, and by doing so, they're squandering their chances to influence the situation favorably.

Putin is NOT crazy, the Russian invasion is NOT failing: BILL ROGGIO

ROGGIO: Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts. We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament.

www.dailymail.co.uk

LWJ is still up and running - if you want to check the latest episode of their podcast Generation Jihad, it's a verbal discussion of this topic.

He starts by pointing out that this invasion is illegal, immoral, and that Putin is a war criminal.

He's right that many commentators in the West have allowed optimism to color their analysis. Ukraine way out performed expectations, and Russia has seriously underperformed expectations. NATO planners are having a field day, right now, watching Russia sort of blunder about, and Russia does, in fact, seem to have missed their own planned time hacks.

"Russia is behind schedule and facing serious setbacks from their original plan", however, is not the same as "losing", which is where I might draw the distinction between what the Pentagon seems to be saying, and what Roggio seems to be describing the Pentagon as saying (though he's talking about the National Security crowd in general).

As for Putin's mindset - isolated and convinced of his own propaganda may not qualify as "crazy", but, it also doesn't qualify as "protected from taking hyper violent or nutty actions".

 

[The Stars Tremble]

Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.

China invades Taiwan.

And you of course are fine with that. In cases of historical dispute, victory should go to the more powerful country, yeah. The West should negotiate with Xi, and maybe get some of the South China Sea back to its rightful owners, in exchange for giving up Taiwan. That's your logic.

What is most startling in your proposal is that West Ukraine gets no more security than they have now. If Russia gets East Ukraine, then NATO gets West Ukraine, surely? Neutrality isn't doing Ukraine a lot of good so far, is it?

 

[jnug]

Putin has already lost. He just does not know it yet. Why are some people so keen to come here and defend or rationalize Putin? That is the more interesting question for a forum like this one.

 

[Slartibartfast]

Putin has already lost. He just does not know it yet. Why are some people so keen to come here and defend or rationalize Putin? That is the more interesting question for a forum like this one.

Them hating the modern world is the only conclusion I can find.

 

[Michael Cole]

My first question was, "Why is Roggio shouting?" So, I looked up the original source. He's not. The Daily Mail is. Imagine that.

Putin is not crazy and the Russian invasion is not failing. The West’s delusions about this war – and its failure to understand the enemy – will prevent it from saving Ukraine​

^^^ no shouting

I'm not interested in the Daily Mail's spin. I'll comment on Roggio.

Simplistic, poorly written article. Seems credible, but it amounts to only an expert opinion on military logistics; he doesn't resolve his claim that "We cannot help Ukraine if we cannot be honest about its predicament."

Roggio is probably correct. I don't know anyone who thinks Kyiv won't eventually fall, so I'm not sure what his point is. He seems to be mistaking enthusiasm for Zelensky and Ukraine for thinking Putin is on the ropes. I don't think anyone thinks Putin is being beaten back.

Nice, boring, poorly written display of logistical expertise. Other than that, pointless.

 

[Loulit01]

Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.

You're dreaming. The current negotiations are for show. Putin doesn't want eastern Ukraine — if he did he would have taken it and stopped. Putin wants Ukraine. He'll try to negotiate Russia's way back from all the sanctions after he takes Ukraine, not before.

 

[BirdinHand]

Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian, so I think the West needs to negotiate with Putin to let him have that portion, and then Western Ukraine can be an independent buffer state between Russia and NATO.

Like I said, there should be a negotiated settlement between Russia and the West, whereby Western Ukraine's security and neutrality are both guaranteed. Both should be interlinked.

Why on earth would “the West” negotiate with Russia to give Russia part of the Ukraine?

And under WHAT authority? Ukraine is a sovereign nation. No one has any business slicing that country into pieces to appease Russia.