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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 August 2020

Perotista

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PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 August 2020

Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 11: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 1: Alabama

Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.

Arizona McSally R – The Democrat Mark Kelly is a position to sew up this race early. In the last 5 polls taken in July, Kelly averages an 8-point lead over McSally. As of now, I don’t see how McSally can turn things around. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48

Alabama Jones D – Tommy Tuberville won the runoff between him and Jeff Sessions. Tuberville will go on to defeat Doug Jones easily in November. Alabama is the only bright spot for the GOP in this year’s senate races. The one and only. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47

Colorado Gardner R – This has all the indications of a route for Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper. If this race wasn’t a switch from Republican to Democratic, I’d take it off my watch list and place it in the safe Democratic column. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48

Georgia Perdue R – This race is a pure tossup between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Perdue. I’m only going with Perdue solely because he’s the incumbent. But keep a close eye on this one. It’s libel to change several times between now and November. Republican hold. R 52 D 48

Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls, two of those four will face off in the runoff in January. Which two is anyone guess. It's very possible it could be the two Democrats against each other or the two Republicans. But I foresee Collins the Republican vs. Warnock the Democrat with Collins winning the runoff as more Republicans are apt to go to the polls for the January runoff than Democrats. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.

Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield is giving the incumbent Joni Ernst fits. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa has fallen 6 points in the last two months, Joe Biden has also taken the lead in Iowa. All pointing to a Greenfield win although this will be a very close one. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49

Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. It will be Republican Kris Kobach vs. Democrat Barbara Bollier. One would think this would be a very easy race for the Republican. It’s not, Bollier leads Kobach in each of the last three polls, abet her lead is one, two and one point. This is Kansas, what the heck is going on? Only because this is Kansas, I’m sticking with the Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49

Kentucky McConnell R – What a difference a month makes. Democrat McGrath was within 4 points of old Mitch. This month, McConnell has widened that lead to an average of 12 points. If this holds next month, I’ll move Kentucky off the watch list into the safe republican column. Republican hold R 51 D 49

Maine Collins R – Sara Gideon won the democratic primary for the right to challenge republican Collins in November. Gideon will keep right on winning. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50

Montana Daines R – Although former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock has seen his aggregated lead over Republican incumbent Steve Daines drop from 5 points down to 2 this month. I’m still going with the Democrat. One of the reasons is that Trump has seen a 20-point lead here fall to just 8 points over the last 2 months. in November. Could it be Montana is thinking democrat? Democratic gain R 49 D 51

North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham seems to have solidified his leads at around 4 points this month. I’m sticking the Cal. Democratic Gain R 48 D 52.

Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 15 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 5 Democrats. The primaries are now scheduled for 6 August. I’m not about to predict who the nominees will be for November. Who the nominees are doesn’t matter as the Republican will win. Republican hold. R 48 D 52

There have been no changes this month. Although the Democrats solidified their leads in Arizona and Colorado making these two states close to a 95% pickup chance for the democrats. McConnell, Kentucky has moved from a nail biter to a comfortable lead. Both Georgia seats are also nail biters, if Biden were to choose either Atlanta Mayor Bottoms or Stacey Abrams as his VP, these seats would change parties. Time will tell on that. Kansas is so far out from normal or for Kansas being Kansas, I’m left scratching my head there. There’s no doubt in my mind the Democrats will regain control of the senate. The only question left to be answered is will it be by the 52-48 margin or perhaps a very possible 55-45 margin? Also South Carolina and Texas I’m keeping an eye on. They’re not competitive yet, but the possibility exist they could become so.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. Accomplishing that would be akin to getting hit by lightning twice and winning the Mega Million Jackpot, all in the same day. In other words, no way. The Democrats have 26 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, down one from last month. The Republicans have 22, also down one last month. The Democrats will have a net gain of one seat, the same as last month. The New House will have 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans.

Presidency

There were no state changes this month. Now in the real close states, Trump improved in Georgia where he was basically tied with Biden. But He remains tied in Texas. Due to these states voting history, I have kept them in the Trump column. Trump has improved in Ohio where last month he trailed by 4 points, now only by a couple tenths of a single percentage. I left Ohio in Biden’s column to see if this trend continues or abates before swinging Ohio. One other state of noted interest. Would anyone believe Biden trails Trump by only 3 points in Alaska? Just 3 electoral votes there, but perhaps Trump’s very poor showing so far in states like Georgia, Texas and Alaska of all places show how vulnerable he is. On the popular vote side, both candidates dropped a couple of tenths of a point, so no real change in that. This month it’s Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%. Of the remaining 10.8%, third party voters make up 5.1% leaving only 5.7% in the undecided column. I thought about breaking down the undecided’s, placing them in either the Trump or Biden column. But decided against it this month. Perhaps next month. Now historical averages show that the undecideds tend to go for the challenger by roughly a 60-40 margin. So you can do the math if you have a mind too. The electoral college tally for this month is Biden 352, Trump 186. Same as last month.

History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204

2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
August Senate 52 D, 48R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%, Third party 5.1%, Electoral college, Biden 352, Trump 186
 

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I'm thinking Jones ekes it out in Alabama. The undecideds are too high for such a deep red state - I get the feeling a lot of Republicans are looking for a reason to vote Jones and at some point during the campaign Tuberville will give it to them.
 

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Cordelier;bt5218 said:
I'm thinking Jones ekes it out in Alabama. The undecideds are too high for such a deep red state - I get the feeling a lot of Republicans are looking for a reason to vote Jones and at some point during the campaign Tuberville will give it to them.
Perhaps, we've only had one poll of likely voters polling the senate race in Alabama, that was the WPA one of 2 July which is now a month old. It had Tuberville up by 10, 50-40. But this old poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points. Not all that reliable.

Trump has a 64% approval rating in Alabama, so I don't see Jones having that much of a chance. That is unless Tuberville steps in a bag of doo doo hip deep and gives it to Jones. Strange things can and do happen, so it isn't out of the realm of possibility. I'd say, highly unlikely, but possible.

There isn't much to go on in the Alabama senate race. Hopefully there will be some more polls before next month and with a lower margin of error. Auburn University had a poll, but that was Registered Voters with the same MOE I believe. That one had Tuberville up by 8. Even combining them, we're still not talking about a competitive race, at least not yet.
 

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I'm looking at that Auburn poll - it had Tuberville ahead 44-36 with 14% undecided. That's the key figure for me... if Trump is so popular in Alabama and Tuberville is pretty much running as his third ass cheek, then why are the numbers so soft? I figure Jones is a pretty smart cookie... and Tuberville is a neophyte - so there's a pretty good possibility he could walk into a well-placed trap.
 

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Cordelier;bt5221 said:
I'm looking at that Auburn poll - it had Tuberville ahead 44-36 with 14% undecided. That's the key figure for me... if Trump is so popular in Alabama and Tuberville is pretty much running as his third ass cheek, then why are the numbers so soft? I figure Jones is a pretty smart cookie... and Tuberville is a neophyte - so there's a pretty good possibility he could walk into a well-placed trap.
I'm not going to disagree with you. Just saying a win by Jones is highly unlikely. That poll if i remember right had an MOE of 5 points. Soft, it's early. Tuberville just won the runoff. Also the same poll has Trump up by 15 over Biden, 55-40.

I don't see anything here for any Jones supporter to get excited about. But these things are dynamic and change constantly. I do think the possibility of the Democrats gaining a senate seat in South Carolina and or Texas or both rates as more likely than Alabama's. That could change, this is why I do these things monthly.
 

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The primary in Kansas isn't until tomorrow. Kobach could win, but it could just as easily be Roger Marshall, who nearly every elected Republican is backing.
 

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Perotista;bt5222 said:
I'm not going to disagree with you. Just saying a win by Jones is highly unlikely. That poll if i remember right had an MOE of 5 points. Soft, it's early. Tuberville just won the runoff. Also the same poll has Trump up by 15 over Biden, 55-40.

I don't see anything here for any Jones supporter to get excited about. But these things are dynamic and change constantly. I do think the possibility of the Democrats gaining a senate seat in South Carolina and or Texas or both rates as more likely than Alabama's. That could change, this is why I do these things monthly.
No doubt a Jones win is unlikely... but I think if you see an upset win anywhere (and there's always at least one), it'll be there. South Carolina and Texas may be narrower leads, but the races are pretty firmed up... and Cornyn and Graham are both seasoned pros - not likely to make any big mistakes. Not so much with Tuberville. I know he used to coach Auburn and all, but I figure 'Bama is Tide Country.... and I'm thinking he may go out on this one.
 

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For the Presidency.. I think that it will come down to the VP. If the democrats go hard left with a person far left of Joe.. I think that gets the moderates and independents to lean more toward trump. Better Trump.. than someone thats going to change their medicare, and take away their gasoline cars.. etc. If Joe picks someone that gives him a better shot at a electoral college win that he wouldn't have gotten with his base.. then I think Joe has a shot.

Your thoughts? It has been proposed.. that the reason for the Clinton loss was solely because the democrats did not fire up their base. I think they are wrong.. I think that the base came out.. which is why Clinton won the popular vote.. but.. moderates/swing voters did not vote for Clinton.. they voted either third party.. or held their noses and voted trump. These voters may have voted for OBama.. but they were not "base democrats".

What are your thoughts on this.
 

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Anagram;bt5223 said:
The primary in Kansas isn't until tomorrow. Kobach could win, but it could just as easily be Roger Marshall, who nearly every elected Republican is backing.
You're absolutely correct. The problem with Kansas is the latest poll is dated 1 June, 2 months ago. It showed Bollier up by 1 over Kobach and down by 1 to Marshall. Which means absolutely nothing. I should have taken a closer look at the dates on the polls before I went off a bit on Kansas being so close.

But I do thank you pointing out the Kansas primaries aren't until tomorrow. What I think will happen is that once either Kobach or Marshall wins, they begin lengthening whichever one wins, lead. I think what threw me was an article about the Kansas state Republican leaders asking Trump to endorse Marshall and Trump refusing.
 

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Cordelier;bt5224 said:
No doubt a Jones win is unlikely... but I think if you see an upset win anywhere (and there's always at least one), it'll be there. South Carolina and Texas may be narrower leads, but the races are pretty firmed up... and Cornyn and Graham are both seasoned pros - not likely to make any big mistakes. Not so much with Tuberville. I know he used to coach Auburn and all, but I figure 'Bama is Tide Country.... and I'm thinking he may go out on this one.
LOL, in a way that's like being a Georgia Tech fan in Georgia which belongs to the Bulldogs. Although about a week older, I think the WPA poll of likely voters is probably a bit more accurate than Auburn's Registered voter poll. Let's take another look at this race next month. The WPA poll showed Tuberville with a 10 point lead with 10% in the undecided column.

The problem with polls so old, either one, one has to read into them and try to draw a trend. There just isn't enough polls to do that. In such cases, I draw on the history of the state. That works most of the time. But the key word there is most.

History of a state failed me in 2016 with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. I knew all three were basically tossups, but I went with Hillary winning all three. So we'll take another look at Alabama next month. To me an 8-10 point gap is borderline taking that state out of the competitive column. Another way to look at it, using your Auburn poll, 8 point advantage Tuberville with 14% undecided is Jones would have to win close to 80% of those undecided votes to pull even.

But with the polls so old, the race could be much closer than 8 points or larger.
 
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jaeger19;bt5225 said:
For the Presidency.. I think that it will come down to the VP. If the democrats go hard left with a person far left of Joe.. I think that gets the moderates and independents to lean more toward trump. Better Trump.. than someone thats going to change their medicare, and take away their gasoline cars.. etc. If Joe picks someone that gives him a better shot at a electoral college win that he wouldn't have gotten with his base.. then I think Joe has a shot.

Your thoughts? It has been proposed.. that the reason for the Clinton loss was solely because the democrats did not fire up their base. I think they are wrong.. I think that the base came out.. which is why Clinton won the popular vote.. but.. moderates/swing voters did not vote for Clinton.. they voted either third party.. or held their noses and voted trump. These voters may have voted for OBama.. but they were not "base democrats".

What are your thoughts on this.
I too think who Biden chooses for his VP is very important. Biden has been trending left for the last 2-3 weeks which I think is a mistake. The old political adage for a Democrat is to campaign left during the primaries and move toward the center for the general election. Biden more or less remained the moderate during what primaries we had, now he’s moving left for the general. That was a mistake Hillary made in 2016, she stayed left trying to placate Sanders supporters. That ended with independents going for Trump. Trump’s problem is independents don’t like him much. I’d say around 55% of them don’t care for him for various reasons. Trump may have won the independent vote in 2016, but he did so by a 46-42 margin with 12% of independents voting third party, against both Trump and Clinton. That comes out to 54% of independents voting against Trump, Clinton’s 42 and the 12% who voted against both. I think Biden will have to make a big mistake or do something for some of those indies who dislike Trump to move into his corner. What I’m seeing so far is around 80% of independents stating they’ll be voting for either Trump or Biden with 8% stating third party and 12% undecided. That 80% has been a relative even split with Trump ahead by one or two one week, Biden by one or two the next. Now history shows that by roughly a 60-40 split those undecided’s come down on the challenger’s side. Also there’s been a shift in party affiliation since Nov 2016 which favors the Democrats. From a 4 point Democratic advantage in 2016 to a 6 point democratic advantage, 31-25 as of 4 June 2020.

I agree, Clinton’s base came out. But that 4-point advantage in party affiliation was cut to the 2 point win in the popular vote by Trump winning the independent vote by 4 points. Independents gave Trump his very close wins in Wisconsin, he won independents there 50-40 over Hillary. In Pennsylvania where Trump won the indie vote 48-41 and in Michigan by a whopping 52-35 margin. I don’t think Trump can duplicate that.
 

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I'm not able to see my post or previous ones when going to advanced or preview.
Just trying to help.

All numbers are from The Green Papers: United States General Election 2020 ;

All of my numbers are in dollars rounded down from t.g.p.; are in millions on top and bottom; have the gross on top and dispersed on bottom; with the R first and the D 2nd. $$$ say it all these days in elections.

CO —> 15/6 to 14/10; AZ —> 30/20 to 46/25; IA —> 12/4 to 12/6;
TX —> 17/8 to 7/6; ME 13/11 to 24/19; SC —> 26/14 to 29/19;
MT —> 12/6 to 11/4; GA-Perdue-6 years —> 11/2 to 7/4;
GA-Loeffler-2 years --> Loeffler --> 18/11 and Collins 4/1 to Warnock 4/1 and Lieberman 1/1; NC --> 11/6 to 15/8; KY --> 32/19 to 47/31;
AL --> 4/3 to 14/7; AK --> 6/2 to 4/1.

Even though brother Pero lives in GA, I don’t feel it for either seat for Democrats.
It wouldn’t surprise me if both R’s make the run-off.

Many other seats are at least worth mentioning imho. MN, MI, NH, AK, and KS.
The Democrat in Kansas is a former R.
Repub Marshall in KS has disbursed 3X the $$$ that Kobach has for their primary.
Bollier is in good shape for the D's.
 
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Linc;bt5229 said:
I'm not able to see my post or previous ones when going to advanced or preview.
Just trying to help.

All numbers are from The Green Papers: United States General Election 2020 ;

All of my numbers are in dollars rounded down from t.g.p.; are in millions on top and bottom; have the gross on top and dispersed on bottom; with the R first and the D 2nd. $$$ say it all these days in elections.

CO —> 15/6 to 14/10; AZ —> 30/20 to 46/25; IA —> 12/4 to 12/6;
TX —> 17/8 to 7/6; ME 13/11 to 24/19; SC —> 26/14 to 29/19;
MT —> 12/6 to 11/4; GA-Perdue-6 years —> 11/2 to 7/4;
GA-Loeffler-2 years --> Loeffler --> 18/11 and Collins 4/1 to Warnock 4/1 and Lieberman 1/1; NC --> 11/6 to 15/8; KY --> 32/19 to 47/31;
AL --> 4/3 to 14/7; AK --> 6/2 to 4/1.

Even though brother Pero lives in GA, I don’t feel it for either seat for Democrats.
It wouldn’t surprise me if both R’s make the run-off.

Many other seats are at least worth mentioning imho. MN, MI, NH, AK, and KS.
The Democrat in Kansas is a former R.
Repub Marshall in KS has disbursed 3X the $$$ that Kobach has for their primary.
Bollier is in good shape for the D's.
On the special election, Loeffler and Collins have been running very nasty political ads against each other. Nasty is too mild a word. You wouldn't believe both are from the same party, heck, you wouldn't believe them if this was back during the cold war with Stalin running for the senate seat. Those ads just might lead to the two Democrats making the runoff in January. I've never seen the like and I've been around for a very long time.

Since there is no primary for this senate race, a jungle primary on election day in November to determine the top two. The strange thing about this is neither Collins nor Loeffler are running ads against the two main Democratic opponents, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are getting complete passes. I haven't seen any ads from the two Democrats, just these two Republicans.

The regular senate race, Purdue vs. Ossoff has been very quiet. Nothing on this race as far as political ads. Maybe I'm watching the wrong channels. Mainly sports channels and the History channel.

Trump and Biden are basically tied here in Georgia, CBS/YouGov has Biden up by 1, Monmouth has Trump up by one. The rest of the polls are 3 weeks old or older which I discount.
 

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Perotista;bt5230 said:
On the special election, Loeffler and Collins have been running very nasty political ads against each other. Nasty is too mild a word. You wouldn't believe both are from the same party, heck, you wouldn't believe them if this was back during the cold war with Stalin running for the senate seat. Those ads just might lead to the two Democrats making the runoff in January. I've never seen the like and I've been around for a very long time.

Since there is no primary for this senate race, a jungle primary on election day in November to determine the top two. The strange thing about this is neither Collins nor Loeffler are running ads against the two main Democratic opponents, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are getting complete passes. I haven't seen any ads from the two Democrats, just these two Republicans.

The regular senate race, Purdue vs. Ossoff has been very quiet. Nothing on this race as far as political ads. Maybe I'm watching the wrong channels. Mainly sports channels and the History channel.

Trump and Biden are basically tied here in Georgia, CBS/YouGov has Biden up by 1, Monmouth has Trump up by one. The rest of the polls are 3 weeks old or older which I discount.
Please respond. I’m done editing. Just noticed that one could update posts from yesterday on this blog.

It’s good to see you’re watching the sports channels.
That was a horrible injury to Soroka last night. Next young guy up.


I’ll try to get back into the state political stuff as I believe it works both ways with the federals when it comes to coattails.
I still believe North Carolina is the most important state.
Trump is back to having his convention there with limited press.
Close POTUS, close Senator, multiple House flips, close Governor, both state chambers being battlegrounds.
(State judges are just too much for right now, though we’ve seen how important they are.)

Lots of X factors exactly 13 weeks out.
Lawsuits on mail-in-voting, state preparedness for MIV, Census hurry-up, COVID.
Daily double distractions, congressional stalemates, October Surprises, virtual convention(s); it’s never-ending.

I see it as tiers of states imho. Tier one has NC, MI, MN, AZ, PA, and IA.
Only MN went to Clinton. Yes lower tier states are important for potus, such as FL and WI.
All 6 have at least one battleground state chamber.
Only PA doesn't have a Senate race.

House seats are variable --D's are on the defensive in IA, MN, and MI.
R's are hurting in NC with their 3rd remap of the decade.
AZ has one seat each way, but PA has multiple seats each way.
 
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So Perotista.. who do you think should be Bidens pick (I also think he has to be careful not to trend left.. ) I think he needs to pick someone who helps him win a state he would not normally win..

I think Tammy Duckworth is his best pick. She will help him win the Military vote. Trump can;t make her out to be weak on the military. She can hold her own and still look classy. She will help Biden get the fly over states..
 

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Yeah, a torn Achilles, he’s scheduled for surgery next week. Done for this season. The Braves have had only two reliable starters this season, they miss Dallas Keuchel and with Foltynewicz struggleing big time, he was sent down. The Braves have a good start, but how far can they go with only one reliable starting pitcher?
All I have to say this far out, most races are in flux. North Carolina looks good at this time for both Biden and Cunningham. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan have reverted to their historical voting practices. Florida could easily go Biden’s way.
I’ve read several article on researching mail in voting, they all agree there’s no advantage to either party. Now there are a lot of states not set up for mail in voting. Not in the millions of ballots anticipated. Georgia is used to absentee ballots from the military and a few others who travel or requested them ahead of time. Perhaps a few thousand at the most, not 3 or 4 million. It could be 3 or 4 days after the polls close before we know who won Georgia. These on-site exit polling done at certain key precincts which the networks use for their giving a state to one or the other candidate will be useless. We’ll have to go by the actual vote count as they come in.

But as an old fart, I’m use to that. I go back to paper ballots and there were elections, 1960 comes to mind where we didn’t know who won for 3 or 4 days. If I remember right, California wasn’t called until a week after. So that’s no big thing to me. These modern, younger techies who expect immediate results will probably be having big doo doo fits. You know, that suits me just fine. Waiting until the votes are counted before awarding a state to the winner. Perhaps it time to go back to paper ballots.

We still don’t know how this coronavirus will affect the election. It’s bound to have some effect. How each state conducts their election is a state thing. Purely up to the state legislatures. If a state wanted to revert to no popular vote with the state legislature awarding their electoral votes, that would be 100% constitutional. I think Trump knows he’s going to lose and probably big time, so he’s attempting to throw as much doubt into our election system as possible.
 

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jaeger19;bt5232 said:
So Perotista.. who do you think should be Bidens pick (I also think he has to be careful not to trend left.. ) I think he needs to pick someone who helps him win a state he would not normally win..

I think Tammy Duckworth is his best pick. She will help him win the Military vote. Trump can;t make her out to be weak on the military. She can hold her own and still look classy. She will help Biden get the fly over states..
We think along the same lines. My choice would be Tammy Duckworth. I really like that gal. Of course I'm a bit bias, I'm retired military, so there is a bit of comradeship there. You know the old comrades in arms, brothers and sisters in uniform thing. My wife is also from Thailand, so perhaps it's not a bit biased, but a lot.

Harris, she doesn't help Biden. Who cares if Biden wins California by 3 million or 4 million votes, he's still only going to get 55 electoral votes. But Harris does add regional balance, which in today's age isn't necessary. Gore and Bill Clinton put that to bed in 1992. Two southern boys. Warren, I think would be a big mistake, Biden needs someone attractive to the independent voter. Independents gave Trump the White House. Warren reminds me too much of Hillary Clinton with her aloof and elitist personality.

If not Duckworth, Klobuchar would be great. A big help in the midwest and attractive to moderates and independents. Whoever Old Joe picks, she needs to be political savvy. Know when to fire back and when to keep her powder dry. She also needs to be experienced, someone most Americans would trust to take over for Biden if need be. Someone Biden can groom for 2024, but be loyal to Joe in his decisions that he makes.

We're back to Tammy aren't we?
 

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YEah klobuchar would be a good bet as well. Though I still think we are back to duckworth

But exactly.. Harris doesn;t help him..Warren doesn;t help him and Trump would salivate over going after Pocahontas..

Personally and I want to know what you think... but I think picking a black female will hurt him. We can say race doesn;t matter. But I think teh midwestern and western and rural voters? They see a black female politician as the epitome of the radical left. I think it would be a big signal to the independents and moderates and swing voters.. that the liberal element is going to be driving Joe around.



.
 

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jaeger19;bt5235 said:
YEah klobuchar would be a good bet as well. Though I still think we are back to duckworth

But exactly.. Harris doesn;t help him..Warren doesn;t help him and Trump would salivate over going after Pocahontas..

Personally and I want to know what you think... but I think picking a black female will hurt him. We can say race doesn;t matter. But I think teh midwestern and western and rural voters? They see a black female politician as the epitome of the radical left. I think it would be a big signal to the independents and moderates and swing voters.. that the liberal element is going to be driving Joe around.



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I've seen Biden moving left over the last 2-3 weeks capped off with the appointment of Warren as an advisor. During that time frame Biden's lead has dropped from 9.4 down to 6.4 according to RCP.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - General Election: Trump vs. Biden

That's against the old political adage for a Democrat of campaigning left during the primaries, move toward the center for the general. During the primaries, Biden was the moderate.

As for a black woman VP, I think it depends on who it is. What her political ideology is. Anyone from the far left would look like the far left owns Old Joe. Especially since he has slowly been moving that way.

I haven't seen anything Trump has done to shave off 3 points from Biden's lead. Perhaps it was what Joe has been doing or moving. Moving in the wrong direction. Coincidence?

Maybe Biden has seen 3 progressive Democrats defeat 3 more moderate Democrats in their Democratic primaries. But that doesn't attract independents, swing voters as those folks didn't vote in the Democratic primaries. they do in the general. I think at times candidates forget that.

I'll let you know what I think when Biden chooses his VP. I'm still hoping for Duckworth. And yes, race still matters, but I think ideology matters more.
 
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Thanks perotista..

Okay.. another question. WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON WITH THIS ANTI VOTING BY MAIL? I can't figure out what republicans and Donald trump are trying to accomplish. Generally.. absentee/mail in ballots.. favor the republican party. Snowbirds (elderly) and military.. which both generally favor republicans.. are two big groups that use mail in ballots. (which is why Voter ID.. never pertained to absentee ballots.. republican didn't want to disenfranchise their own voters)
What are they trying to accomplish by trying stop mail in ballots?

IS Donald Trump just hoping for a poor turnout and thinks that will favor him?
 

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jaeger19;bt5238 said:
Thanks perotista..

Okay.. another question. WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON WITH THIS ANTI VOTING BY MAIL? I can't figure out what republicans and Donald trump are trying to accomplish. Generally.. absentee/mail in ballots.. favor the republican party. Snowbirds (elderly) and military.. which both generally favor republicans.. are two big groups that use mail in ballots. (which is why Voter ID.. never pertained to absentee ballots.. republican didn't want to disenfranchise their own voters)
What are they trying to accomplish by trying stop mail in ballots?

IS Donald Trump just hoping for a poor turnout and thinks that will favor him?
I saw three studies on mail in voting in which all three concluded it doesn't favor either party. But they pointed out that roughly 5% get thrown out. Be it for being received after the deadline, invalid or no signature, mismatched address along with some other reasons.

The problem is most states are set up or ready for several million mail in ballots. Georgia, we get perhaps a couple of thousand absentee ballots mostly from the military and some from those who knew they were traveling or some other reason. There is a huge difference between a few thousand and 3 or 4 million. There is a real possibility that we won't know who won Georgia until 3 or 4 days after the polls close. Georgia just isn't set up for that many mail in ballots.

why one party would be adamantly against it while the other party all for mail in voting really makes no sense if the studies I read are correct. The only thing for sure is you're going to have a lot of ballots tossed with mail in voting that wouldn't happen with voting early or on election day at the polling places.

You have this

New York's Election Failure Is a Warning for November - The Atlantic

and this

Why the Botched N.Y.C. Primary Has Become the November Nightmare - The New York Times

I sure with the 3 states who have done mail in voting for years, no problem. But for the rest, who knows? 8 states require in person voting only.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/vote-by-mail-states/
 

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Well.. with Covid.. there is going to be problems no matter what. We already have polling places that get long lines and people get turned away because of too long a line. Now imagine.. polling places trying to keep social distancing. The number of folks that might decide not to vote because its too dangerous. What about screening your polling workers to make sure they aren;t sick and making everyone they hand a ballot to get sick. Heck.. everywhere I have voted.. its usually the elderly that are volunteering at the polling stations. I don;t think I have every seen anyone under the age of 60 working at the polls. So what happens when all those former volunteers decide its unsafe?

Mail in voting reduces that. Sure.. it might take longer to count ballots.. but the more avenues to the vote.. the less issue there will be in my humble opinion. Most states are already set up for absentee ballots.. so other than a volume issue...its not that big of a deal compared with all the other issues that are also going to occur.

The only advantage I can think of for Trump and co is that suppressing the vote probably favors the republicans.
 

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jaeger19;bt5241 said:
Well.. with Covid.. there is going to be problems no matter what. We already have polling places that get long lines and people get turned away because of too long a line. Now imagine.. polling places trying to keep social distancing. The number of folks that might decide not to vote because its too dangerous. What about screening your polling workers to make sure they aren;t sick and making everyone they hand a ballot to get sick. Heck.. everywhere I have voted.. its usually the elderly that are volunteering at the polling stations. I don;t think I have every seen anyone under the age of 60 working at the polls. So what happens when all those former volunteers decide its unsafe?

Mail in voting reduces that. Sure.. it might take longer to count ballots.. but the more avenues to the vote.. the less issue there will be in my humble opinion. Most states are already set up for absentee ballots.. so other than a volume issue...its not that big of a deal compared with all the other issues that are also going to occur.

The only advantage I can think of for Trump and co is that suppressing the vote probably favors the republicans.
I've read three articles on mail in voting, all three agreed that it doesn't favor one or the other party. So why one would be so adamant against it and the other for it, that leaves me scratching my head.

As for taking a long time to count the ballots, like I said, I was around when everyone used paper ballots. Long before punch cards and now computers. Waiting a day or two or even longer, I've no problem with that. Just think of it, having to wait for all the votes to be counted before awarding a state to a candidate. Well, we know ahead of time how 40 or so states will go.

That another thing, 50 years ago, every state was in play outside the solid democratic south. So we had around 40 in play, 10 not. It's just the opposite today.

This voter suppression is a lot like voter fraud in my book, way over blown. In a good turnout year in presidential elections we only get 55% turnout, 45% don't bother to vote and most of those 45% had no intention whatsoever of voting.

In any election you're going to come up with a few, both fraud and suppression. Here in Georgia if one doesn't vote in any election, federal, state, local, sales tax, school board, splosh, you name it in six years, they are removed from the list or register. That has lead to some complaints as being suppression, but if one doesn't vote in any six year time period, they're aren't going to vote.

We also ran into a few complaints about voters not informing the register that they moved, changed of address. So they couldn't vote at their new address. Heck, on the back side of everyone's registration card is a change of address form. Just send it in and you'll be registered at you new place.

I've no problem with mail in voting. Although studies show around 5% of mail in ballots on average gets tossed for various reasons. That also depends on different counties and states. Some counties during the primaries had close to zero mail in ballots deemed invalid, others up to 10%. Failing to sign the oath so signatures can be compared and again, moving to a different address so the addresses don't match or failing to register in your new county. Those mistakes are on the voter and I don't deem them suppression.
 

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I heard that Joe picked Kamala... what do the polls say perotista?
 

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jaeger19;bt5243 said:
I heard that Joe picked Kamala... what do the polls say perotista?
Way too early. Give it a week or two for the Harris pick to settle in. Any overnight polls are basically useless. I do think Biden followed the first rule in choosing his VP, do no harm. I don't personally think Harris helps or hurts Biden. A relative safe pick.

For Democrats, both Biden and Harris are viewed as fairly moderate which could help with independents. If and how much remains to be seen, but in theory if you know what I mean.

Right now the Democrats are in excellent shape, but there are cracks in that shape.
 
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