PEROTISTA’S 2020 Monthly SENATE, HOUSE and Presidency FORECAST 1 August 2020
Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 11: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 1: Alabama
Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.
The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.
Arizona McSally R – The Democrat Mark Kelly is a position to sew up this race early. In the last 5 polls taken in July, Kelly averages an 8-point lead over McSally. As of now, I don’t see how McSally can turn things around. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48
Alabama Jones D – Tommy Tuberville won the runoff between him and Jeff Sessions. Tuberville will go on to defeat Doug Jones easily in November. Alabama is the only bright spot for the GOP in this year’s senate races. The one and only. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47
Colorado Gardner R – This has all the indications of a route for Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper. If this race wasn’t a switch from Republican to Democratic, I’d take it off my watch list and place it in the safe Democratic column. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48
Georgia Perdue R – This race is a pure tossup between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Perdue. I’m only going with Perdue solely because he’s the incumbent. But keep a close eye on this one. It’s libel to change several times between now and November. Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls, two of those four will face off in the runoff in January. Which two is anyone guess. It's very possible it could be the two Democrats against each other or the two Republicans. But I foresee Collins the Republican vs. Warnock the Democrat with Collins winning the runoff as more Republicans are apt to go to the polls for the January runoff than Democrats. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.
Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield is giving the incumbent Joni Ernst fits. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa has fallen 6 points in the last two months, Joe Biden has also taken the lead in Iowa. All pointing to a Greenfield win although this will be a very close one. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49
Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. It will be Republican Kris Kobach vs. Democrat Barbara Bollier. One would think this would be a very easy race for the Republican. It’s not, Bollier leads Kobach in each of the last three polls, abet her lead is one, two and one point. This is Kansas, what the heck is going on? Only because this is Kansas, I’m sticking with the Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Kentucky McConnell R – What a difference a month makes. Democrat McGrath was within 4 points of old Mitch. This month, McConnell has widened that lead to an average of 12 points. If this holds next month, I’ll move Kentucky off the watch list into the safe republican column. Republican hold R 51 D 49
Maine Collins R – Sara Gideon won the democratic primary for the right to challenge republican Collins in November. Gideon will keep right on winning. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50
Montana Daines R – Although former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock has seen his aggregated lead over Republican incumbent Steve Daines drop from 5 points down to 2 this month. I’m still going with the Democrat. One of the reasons is that Trump has seen a 20-point lead here fall to just 8 points over the last 2 months. in November. Could it be Montana is thinking democrat? Democratic gain R 49 D 51
North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham seems to have solidified his leads at around 4 points this month. I’m sticking the Cal. Democratic Gain R 48 D 52.
Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 15 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 5 Democrats. The primaries are now scheduled for 6 August. I’m not about to predict who the nominees will be for November. Who the nominees are doesn’t matter as the Republican will win. Republican hold. R 48 D 52
There have been no changes this month. Although the Democrats solidified their leads in Arizona and Colorado making these two states close to a 95% pickup chance for the democrats. McConnell, Kentucky has moved from a nail biter to a comfortable lead. Both Georgia seats are also nail biters, if Biden were to choose either Atlanta Mayor Bottoms or Stacey Abrams as his VP, these seats would change parties. Time will tell on that. Kansas is so far out from normal or for Kansas being Kansas, I’m left scratching my head there. There’s no doubt in my mind the Democrats will regain control of the senate. The only question left to be answered is will it be by the 52-48 margin or perhaps a very possible 55-45 margin? Also South Carolina and Texas I’m keeping an eye on. They’re not competitive yet, but the possibility exist they could become so.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. Accomplishing that would be akin to getting hit by lightning twice and winning the Mega Million Jackpot, all in the same day. In other words, no way. The Democrats have 26 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, down one from last month. The Republicans have 22, also down one last month. The Democrats will have a net gain of one seat, the same as last month. The New House will have 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans.
Presidency
There were no state changes this month. Now in the real close states, Trump improved in Georgia where he was basically tied with Biden. But He remains tied in Texas. Due to these states voting history, I have kept them in the Trump column. Trump has improved in Ohio where last month he trailed by 4 points, now only by a couple tenths of a single percentage. I left Ohio in Biden’s column to see if this trend continues or abates before swinging Ohio. One other state of noted interest. Would anyone believe Biden trails Trump by only 3 points in Alaska? Just 3 electoral votes there, but perhaps Trump’s very poor showing so far in states like Georgia, Texas and Alaska of all places show how vulnerable he is. On the popular vote side, both candidates dropped a couple of tenths of a point, so no real change in that. This month it’s Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%. Of the remaining 10.8%, third party voters make up 5.1% leaving only 5.7% in the undecided column. I thought about breaking down the undecided’s, placing them in either the Trump or Biden column. But decided against it this month. Perhaps next month. Now historical averages show that the undecideds tend to go for the challenger by roughly a 60-40 margin. So you can do the math if you have a mind too. The electoral college tally for this month is Biden 352, Trump 186. Same as last month.
History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204
2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
August Senate 52 D, 48R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%, Third party 5.1%, Electoral college, Biden 352, Trump 186
Currently there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 12 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 23 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 11: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 1: Alabama
Safe Republican seats 12: Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, West Virginia, Wyoming.
The Republicans have 11 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia 1, Georgia 2, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, Tennessee.
Arizona McSally R – The Democrat Mark Kelly is a position to sew up this race early. In the last 5 polls taken in July, Kelly averages an 8-point lead over McSally. As of now, I don’t see how McSally can turn things around. Democratic Gain R 52 D 48
Alabama Jones D – Tommy Tuberville won the runoff between him and Jeff Sessions. Tuberville will go on to defeat Doug Jones easily in November. Alabama is the only bright spot for the GOP in this year’s senate races. The one and only. Republican pick up. R 53 D 47
Colorado Gardner R – This has all the indications of a route for Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper. If this race wasn’t a switch from Republican to Democratic, I’d take it off my watch list and place it in the safe Democratic column. Democratic pickup. R 52 D 48
Georgia Perdue R – This race is a pure tossup between Democrat Jon Ossoff and incumbent Perdue. I’m only going with Perdue solely because he’s the incumbent. But keep a close eye on this one. It’s libel to change several times between now and November. Republican hold. R 52 D 48
Georgia Special Open R – Governor Kemp appointed Kelly Loeffler to replace Isakson who left the senate for health reasons. Being this is a special election, there will be no primary for this seat. All 21 declared candidates will be placed on the November ballot. If no candidate receives 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff between the top two vote getters. We won’t know who wins this seat until after the runoff scheduled for 5 Jan 2021. Loffler and Collins are the top Republicans vying for this seat, Matt Lieberman and Raphael Warnock are the top two Democrats. Collins, Liberman, Loffler and Warnock are the top four in the polls, two of those four will face off in the runoff in January. Which two is anyone guess. It's very possible it could be the two Democrats against each other or the two Republicans. But I foresee Collins the Republican vs. Warnock the Democrat with Collins winning the runoff as more Republicans are apt to go to the polls for the January runoff than Democrats. Republican Hold. R 52 D 48.
Iowa Ernst R – Democrat Theresa Greenfield is giving the incumbent Joni Ernst fits. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa has fallen 6 points in the last two months, Joe Biden has also taken the lead in Iowa. All pointing to a Greenfield win although this will be a very close one. Democratic Gain. R 51 D 49
Kansas Open R – Roberts decided not to run for a fifth term. It will be Republican Kris Kobach vs. Democrat Barbara Bollier. One would think this would be a very easy race for the Republican. It’s not, Bollier leads Kobach in each of the last three polls, abet her lead is one, two and one point. This is Kansas, what the heck is going on? Only because this is Kansas, I’m sticking with the Republican. Republican hold. R 51 D 49
Kentucky McConnell R – What a difference a month makes. Democrat McGrath was within 4 points of old Mitch. This month, McConnell has widened that lead to an average of 12 points. If this holds next month, I’ll move Kentucky off the watch list into the safe republican column. Republican hold R 51 D 49
Maine Collins R – Sara Gideon won the democratic primary for the right to challenge republican Collins in November. Gideon will keep right on winning. Democratic pick up R 50 D 50
Montana Daines R – Although former Democratic Governor Steve Bullock has seen his aggregated lead over Republican incumbent Steve Daines drop from 5 points down to 2 this month. I’m still going with the Democrat. One of the reasons is that Trump has seen a 20-point lead here fall to just 8 points over the last 2 months. in November. Could it be Montana is thinking democrat? Democratic gain R 49 D 51
North Carolina Tillis R – Democrat Cal Cunningham seems to have solidified his leads at around 4 points this month. I’m sticking the Cal. Democratic Gain R 48 D 52.
Tennessee Open R – Alexander is not running for reelection. 15 Republicans are vying for Alexander’s seat along with 5 Democrats. The primaries are now scheduled for 6 August. I’m not about to predict who the nominees will be for November. Who the nominees are doesn’t matter as the Republican will win. Republican hold. R 48 D 52
There have been no changes this month. Although the Democrats solidified their leads in Arizona and Colorado making these two states close to a 95% pickup chance for the democrats. McConnell, Kentucky has moved from a nail biter to a comfortable lead. Both Georgia seats are also nail biters, if Biden were to choose either Atlanta Mayor Bottoms or Stacey Abrams as his VP, these seats would change parties. Time will tell on that. Kansas is so far out from normal or for Kansas being Kansas, I’m left scratching my head there. There’s no doubt in my mind the Democrats will regain control of the senate. The only question left to be answered is will it be by the 52-48 margin or perhaps a very possible 55-45 margin? Also South Carolina and Texas I’m keeping an eye on. They’re not competitive yet, but the possibility exist they could become so.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 235 Democrats, 199 Republicans, 1 independent. The Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to win back the house. Accomplishing that would be akin to getting hit by lightning twice and winning the Mega Million Jackpot, all in the same day. In other words, no way. The Democrats have 26 competitive/at risk seats of switching parties, down one from last month. The Republicans have 22, also down one last month. The Democrats will have a net gain of one seat, the same as last month. The New House will have 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans.
Presidency
There were no state changes this month. Now in the real close states, Trump improved in Georgia where he was basically tied with Biden. But He remains tied in Texas. Due to these states voting history, I have kept them in the Trump column. Trump has improved in Ohio where last month he trailed by 4 points, now only by a couple tenths of a single percentage. I left Ohio in Biden’s column to see if this trend continues or abates before swinging Ohio. One other state of noted interest. Would anyone believe Biden trails Trump by only 3 points in Alaska? Just 3 electoral votes there, but perhaps Trump’s very poor showing so far in states like Georgia, Texas and Alaska of all places show how vulnerable he is. On the popular vote side, both candidates dropped a couple of tenths of a point, so no real change in that. This month it’s Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%. Of the remaining 10.8%, third party voters make up 5.1% leaving only 5.7% in the undecided column. I thought about breaking down the undecided’s, placing them in either the Trump or Biden column. But decided against it this month. Perhaps next month. Now historical averages show that the undecideds tend to go for the challenger by roughly a 60-40 margin. So you can do the math if you have a mind too. The electoral college tally for this month is Biden 352, Trump 186. Same as last month.
History
2019
December Senate 49 D 51 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.8% Trump 46,5%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 334 Trump 204
2020
January Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 228 D, 207 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 50.1% Trump 46.1%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
February Senate 48 D, 52 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.5%, Trump 46.4%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 323 Trump 215
March Senate 49 D, 51 R, House 230 D, 205 R
Presidency Generic Democrat 49.7%, Trump 46.3%, Electoral College Generic Democrat 309 Trump 229
April Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 49.6%, Trump 45.3%, Electoral College Biden 308 Trump 230
May Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 231 D, 204 R
Presidency Biden 48.3%, Trump 42.4%, Electoral College, Biden 330 Trump 208
June Senate 50 D, 50 R, House 232 D, 203 R
Presidency Biden 48.4%, Trump 42.9%, Electoral College, Biden 319 Trump 219
July Senate 52 D, 48 R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.5%, Trump 40.1%, Electoral College, Biden 352, Trump 186
August Senate 52 D, 48R, House 236 D, 199 R
Presidency Biden 49.2%, Trump 40.0%, Third party 5.1%, Electoral college, Biden 352, Trump 186
