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Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.

Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.

Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.

Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming

Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.

The Republicans have 3 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.

Arizona Flake R – Joe Arpaio has entered the Republican race. This makes it a tossup for the GOP nomination between Arpaio, Kelli Ward and Martha McSally. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face the GOP winner next November. Sinema remains a slight favorite regardless of whom she faces. Democratic gain R 50 D 50

Florida Nelson D – Governor Rick Scott still hasn’t made up his mind whether or not to run for the senate. Until and if Scott does, Nelson looks like an easy winner against anyone else. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. Todd Rokita now looks like the favorite to top Luke Messer. Donnelly still looks like the winner in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. Hawley has become the slight favorite in my book. That is if he win the GOP nomination and if he does, Missouri will be a Republican gain. R 51 D 49

Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian, it’s anyone’s guess as to who comes out on top between these two. There remains 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with a possibility of three more. Trump is much disliked in Nevada, regardless of whom the candidates are, the anti-Trump voters will propel the Democrat to victory. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50

Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50

North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger. Nothing for her to worry about. On the GOP side, businessman Gary Emineth has joined state representative Tom Campbell vying for the GOP nomination. Campbell should be the easy winner for the nomination. Heitkamp is a slight favorite over Campbell and a heavy one over Emineth. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50

Tennessee Corker R Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee is the likely Democratic nominee. Blackburn wins, perhaps fairly easily. Republican Hold R 50 D 50

West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Not a problem for Joe. On the GOP side two of the eight declared candidates have dropped out, leaving 6. Which one challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor doesn’t matter. Manchin in a cakewalk. Democratic hold R 50 D 50

On the senate side, not much has changed from last Month. The Republicans lose two, pick up one resulting in a 50-50 tie. VP Pence will be casting a lot of tie breaking votes, the senate will remain in GOP hands.

House of Representatives

Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 40 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. In 5 of those 40 GOP held seats the Democrat is a solid favorite. There are also 29 current Republican house members not seeking re-election in November. An increase of four over last month. Those not seeking re-election are due to either retirement or running for higher office. These open seats are much easier for the opposing party to win or switch them. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They’ll gain 28 accomplishing that task. This is a drop of two net gained seats for the Democrats since last month. Have the Republicans stemmed the bleeding or is this drop just a one month reprieve? We’ll know more next month. The new House will have 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans.

October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D


Liberal Fascist For Life!
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Mar 5, 2008
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Great job as always! I would be remiss if I did not point out that the generic congressional polling has shown a smaller advantage to democrats recently. It remains to be seen how long that will last(or if the current trend will continue), but as things are, I think the chances of democrats gaining control of the house are shrinking, rapidly.


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Jan 31, 2013
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Redress;bt4417 said:
Great job as always! I would be remiss if I did not point out that the generic congressional polling has shown a smaller advantage to democrats recently. It remains to be seen how long that will last(or if the current trend will continue), but as things are, I think the chances of democrats gaining control of the house are shrinking, rapidly.

I too noticed that, the shrinking of the generic congressional polls. I also noticed that Trump's approval rating has risen from 39 to 41% in the RCP averages. Also the leans and tossup seats remained the same for both parties from last month. That party affiliation/identification also remained the same. Independent favoring one congressional party or the other also remained relatively the same. But going district by district, the at risk districts also remained the same. The big difference is in five districts currently held by the Republicans, the democrat has become the solid favorite. Last month that was only one. No currently held democratic seats are the Republicans a heavy or solid favorite. Those districts are AZ 2 open, CA 39 open, CA 49 open, FL 27 open and MN 1 open.

No incumbent is running for re-election in those what looks like sure democratic pickup districts from the GOP. Which means the Democrats would now need 19 instead of 24 out of the remaining 36 republican congressional districts at risk. Of those 36, 7 more are open seats with no republican incumbent running for re-election and are easy to switch. Now that brings it down to 12 out of the remaining 29 at risk republican seats.

Then one must consider the PVI, partisan voting index, whether Trump won the district or Clinton. The mood of the state and district, where Trump stands on the approval/favorable rating. How many are Republican and democrat in the districts along with a couple of other things.

One thing I can't do and no one else can do is predict the turnout. Who turns out. Although forecasting or election prediction is basically a numbers game, it isn't science. This is one reason I do these monthly. Also the mood of the country, right track/wrong track etc. What will the economy look like in November, no one knows, just guesses. Will Trump be embroiled in a scandal or not come November? No one knows. Interesting stuff, but one has to keep on top of it. Things change daily, one major event or happening can turn an election upside down. No one can forecast that either.

I like to call my forecasts SWAG's. Scientific Wild Ass guesses.
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