PEROTISTA’S 2018 SENATE and HOUSE FORECAST February 2018
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.
The Republicans have 3 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
Arizona Flake R – Joe Arpaio has entered the Republican race. This makes it a tossup for the GOP nomination between Arpaio, Kelli Ward and Martha McSally. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face the GOP winner next November. Sinema remains a slight favorite regardless of whom she faces. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – Governor Rick Scott still hasn’t made up his mind whether or not to run for the senate. Until and if Scott does, Nelson looks like an easy winner against anyone else. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. Todd Rokita now looks like the favorite to top Luke Messer. Donnelly still looks like the winner in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. Hawley has become the slight favorite in my book. That is if he win the GOP nomination and if he does, Missouri will be a Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian, it’s anyone’s guess as to who comes out on top between these two. There remains 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with a possibility of three more. Trump is much disliked in Nevada, regardless of whom the candidates are, the anti-Trump voters will propel the Democrat to victory. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50
Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger. Nothing for her to worry about. On the GOP side, businessman Gary Emineth has joined state representative Tom Campbell vying for the GOP nomination. Campbell should be the easy winner for the nomination. Heitkamp is a slight favorite over Campbell and a heavy one over Emineth. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Tennessee Corker R Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee is the likely Democratic nominee. Blackburn wins, perhaps fairly easily. Republican Hold R 50 D 50
West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Not a problem for Joe. On the GOP side two of the eight declared candidates have dropped out, leaving 6. Which one challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor doesn’t matter. Manchin in a cakewalk. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
On the senate side, not much has changed from last Month. The Republicans lose two, pick up one resulting in a 50-50 tie. VP Pence will be casting a lot of tie breaking votes, the senate will remain in GOP hands.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 40 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. In 5 of those 40 GOP held seats the Democrat is a solid favorite. There are also 29 current Republican house members not seeking re-election in November. An increase of four over last month. Those not seeking re-election are due to either retirement or running for higher office. These open seats are much easier for the opposing party to win or switch them. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They’ll gain 28 accomplishing that task. This is a drop of two net gained seats for the Democrats since last month. Have the Republicans stemmed the bleeding or is this drop just a one month reprieve? We’ll know more next month. The new House will have 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D
Currently there are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the Current Senate. There are 26 Democratic seats up for re-election vs. 8 for the Republicans.
Safe Democratic seats 14: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota (Klobuchar), New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.
Non-competitive Democratic seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 6: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota (Smith), Montana, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
Democratic at-risk seats of switching 6: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, North Dakota, West Virginia.
Safe Republican seats 4: Mississippi, Nebraska, Utah, Wyoming
Non-competitive Republican seats at this time, but could become so at some time in the future 1: Texas.
The Republicans have 3 at risk seats of switching this election cycle, Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
Arizona Flake R – Joe Arpaio has entered the Republican race. This makes it a tossup for the GOP nomination between Arpaio, Kelli Ward and Martha McSally. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is the odds on favorite to face the GOP winner next November. Sinema remains a slight favorite regardless of whom she faces. Democratic gain R 50 D 50
Florida Nelson D – Governor Rick Scott still hasn’t made up his mind whether or not to run for the senate. Until and if Scott does, Nelson looks like an easy winner against anyone else. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
Indiana – Donnelly D – 6 Republicans have declared their candidacy to challenge Donnelly with more to come. Todd Rokita now looks like the favorite to top Luke Messer. Donnelly still looks like the winner in November. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Missouri McCaskill D – Four Republicans have declared to challenge McCaskill with the best known being Josh Hawley, the Missouri AG. Hawley has become the slight favorite in my book. That is if he win the GOP nomination and if he does, Missouri will be a Republican gain. R 51 D 49
Nevada Heller R –Heller is being challenged by Danny Tarkanian, it’s anyone’s guess as to who comes out on top between these two. There remains 4 declared Democratic challengers for Heller’s seat with a possibility of three more. Trump is much disliked in Nevada, regardless of whom the candidates are, the anti-Trump voters will propel the Democrat to victory. Democratic gain. R 50 D 50
Ohio Brown D – There are 4 declared Republican candidates to challenge Brown. Josh Mandel is the heavy favorite to win the GOP nomination. Brown doesn’t face a challenger for his seat in the Democratic Primary. Brown in a close one. Democratic hold. R 50 D 50
North Dakota Heitkamp D – Heitkamp has a token Democratic challenger. Nothing for her to worry about. On the GOP side, businessman Gary Emineth has joined state representative Tom Campbell vying for the GOP nomination. Campbell should be the easy winner for the nomination. Heitkamp is a slight favorite over Campbell and a heavy one over Emineth. Democratic Hold R 50 D 50
Tennessee Corker R Corker is retiring leaving this seat open. Marsha Blackburn a Republican House member leads a field of six for the Republican nomination. She’ll win it. Phil Bredesen a former Democratic governor of Tennessee is the likely Democratic nominee. Blackburn wins, perhaps fairly easily. Republican Hold R 50 D 50
West Virginia Manchin D - Manchin is another sitting senator who will receive token opposition in the Democratic Primary. Not a problem for Joe. On the GOP side two of the eight declared candidates have dropped out, leaving 6. Which one challenges the popular sitting senator and ex-governor doesn’t matter. Manchin in a cakewalk. Democratic hold R 50 D 50
On the senate side, not much has changed from last Month. The Republicans lose two, pick up one resulting in a 50-50 tie. VP Pence will be casting a lot of tie breaking votes, the senate will remain in GOP hands.
House of Representatives
Currently the House of Representative consists of 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats. For 2018 the Republicans have 40 seats at risk of switching parties to 9 for the Democrats. In 5 of those 40 GOP held seats the Democrat is a solid favorite. There are also 29 current Republican house members not seeking re-election in November. An increase of four over last month. Those not seeking re-election are due to either retirement or running for higher office. These open seats are much easier for the opposing party to win or switch them. The Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take over control of the House. They’ll gain 28 accomplishing that task. This is a drop of two net gained seats for the Democrats since last month. Have the Republicans stemmed the bleeding or is this drop just a one month reprieve? We’ll know more next month. The new House will have 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans.
History
2017
October Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
November Senate 51 R 49 D, House 221 R 214 D
December Senate 49 R 51 D, House 218 R 217 D
2018
January Senate 50 R 50 D, House 211 R 224 D