New York Primary Results Thread

[MrT]

We have about two and half hours to go until the polls close in New York. Figured I would go ahead and start the thread reviewing the results.

Here is a live link to the CNN coverage. This requires some type of cable subscription. If anyone knows of a free link, please post it. Also, make sure you have Adblock disabled.

Here is a link to some exit polling for Republicans and Democrats (from ABC).

Here's my prediction (with delegate numbers in parenthesis):

Trump - 54% (60)
Kasich - 21% (25)
Cruz - 18% (10)

Hillary - 54% (138)
Bernie - 42% (109)

 

[Erod]

If Independents were allowed to vote in New York, Hillary would be in trouble.

 

[OrphanSlug]

The OP predictions might be pretty damn close.

 

[Crovax]

We have about two and half hours to go until the polls close in New York. Figured I would go ahead and start the thread reviewing the results.

Here is a live link to the CNN coverage. This requires some type of cable subscription. If anyone knows of a free link, please post it. Also, make sure you have Adblock disabled.

Here is a link to some exit polling for Republicans and Democrats (from ABC).

Here's my prediction (with delegate numbers in parenthesis):

Trump - 54% (60)
Kasich - 21% (25)
Cruz - 18% (10)

Hillary - 54% (138)
Bernie - 42% (109)

If Trump gets 54% he's getting way more than 60 delegates, he probably gets 85.

 

[reinoe]

Looks like the Dem establishment is doing a great job denying the people of New York their voting rights.

 

[RetiredUSN]

Hillary buys NYC again!

 

[poweRob]

New York Primary Results 2016 - The New York Times

 

[SocialD]

If Trump gets 54% he's getting way more than 60 delegates, he probably gets 85.

New York has some unique and goofy rules though.
Each of the 27 congressional districts has a separate contest essentially. and they each have for the GOP 3 delegates.
The winner of each gets 2 and possibly 3 delegates, second place generally will get 1.
So in that respect the delegate count prediction of the OP is prob pretty close.

 

[shagg]

Interesting exit pole data from that link.

Best chance to beat Shillary:
Trump 56%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 16%


Oh New York, you so cray cray

 

[poweRob]

New York has some unique and goofy rules though.
Each of the 27 congressional districts has a separate contest essentially. and they each have for the GOP 3 delegates.
The winner of each gets 2 and possibly 3 delegates, second place generally will get 1.
So in that respect the delegate count prediction of the OP is prob pretty close.

Cool. Thanks for the breakdown.

 

[Crovax]

New York has some unique and goofy rules though.
Each of the 27 congressional districts has a separate contest essentially. and they each have for the GOP 3 delegates.
The winner of each gets 2 and possibly 3 delegates, second place generally will get 1.
So in that respect the delegate count prediction of the OP is prob pretty close.

Here Nate Silver's take which I think is better than the OP's (no offense)

I’d have Trump getting oh let’s say 83-85 delegates, which would probably require him to get 54-55 percent of the vote

What We’re Watching In Today’s New York Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Cool. Thanks for the breakdown.

And if Clinton walks away with 138 delegates, and Bernie 109 (as is predicted), the delegate race remains pretty much the same.
Clinton would have 1,437.
Sanders 1,214.
The difference would be 223 delegates.
Meaning Clinton would
STILL FAIL TO PUT HIM AWAY, YET
AGAIN.

It's going to be a contested convention unless Hillary wins landslide victories in every
single
contest
without
1
loss.

Contested convention here we come.

This election will be remembered for centuries.

 

[poweRob]

And if Clinton walks away with 138 delegates, and Bernie 109 (as is predicted), the delegate race remains pretty much the same.
Clinton would have 1,437.
Sanders 1,214.
The difference would be 223 delegates.
Meaning Clinton would
STILL FAIL TO PUT HIM AWAY, YET
AGAIN.

Media will declare this a victory for Hillary if Bernie doesn't win by 15 points or more tonight... which of course isn't going to happen.

 

[Crovax]

And if Clinton walks away with 138 delegates, and Bernie 109 (as is predicted), the delegate race remains pretty much the same.
Clinton would have 1,437.
Sanders 1,214.
The difference would be 223 delegates.
Meaning Clinton would
STILL FAIL TO PUT HIM AWAY, YET
AGAIN.

If Clinton gained 30 delegates that would essentially put Bernie away since he needed to win NY by 4 points to get on track to catch up. That would mean he would need to win California by 20 points.

 

[Crovax]

Media will declare this a victory for Hillary if Bernie doesn't win by 15 points or more tonight... which of course isn't going to happen.

If Bernie can stay within single digits of Hillary it will be a huge win for him even though it means hes farther away from the nomination.

 

[poweRob]

If Clinton gained 30 delegates that would essentially put Bernie away since he needed to win NY by 4 points to get on track to catch up. That would mean he would need to win California by 20 points.

There's far more than just NY and Cali left on the calendar. There's a lot of north eastern states with lots of delegates in between.

 

[SocialD]

Here Nate Silver's take which I think is better than the OP's (no offense)



What We’re Watching In Today’s New York Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

Its possible.
Specifically how it is is in the particular district you have to have > 50% of the vote in that district to get all 3 delegates if you get less than that you get 2.
Trump may do that in some of the districts not in others and its quite possible that in a few districts he will be in second place.
for him to get the 83-85 he would have to get > 50% of the vote in 15-17 of the of the 27 districts... might happen but I'm skeptical.
My guess is more in the 67-70 delegate range. I might of course be wrong. we shall see.

 

[poweRob]

If Bernie can stay within single digits of Hillary it will be a huge win for him even though it means hes farther away from the nomination.

True. It's just getting late in the game for moral victories with actual losses.

 

[Crovax]

There's far more than just NY and Cali left on the calendar. There's a lot of north eastern states with lots of delegates in between.

Like PA and Maryland where Hillary has just as big of leads in the polls as she does in NY.

 

[Helix]

Looks like the Dem establishment is doing a great job denying the people of New York their voting rights.

yep. part of why i wouldn't shed a tear if political parties were banned tomorrow and candidates were forced to run on their ideas.

 

[MrT]

And if Clinton walks away with 138 delegates, and Bernie 109 (as is predicted), the delegate race remains pretty much the same.
Clinton would have 1,437.
Sanders 1,214.
The difference would be 223 delegates.
Meaning Clinton would
STILL FAIL TO PUT HIM AWAY, YET

This is because Democrats reward their votes proportionally. It is almost entirely impossible to "put him away."

 

[MrT]

Here Nate Silver's take which I think is better than the OP's (no offense)

What We’re Watching In Today’s New York Primaries | FiveThirtyEight

No offense taken. I trust Nate Silver over myself any day.

 

[poweRob]

Like PA and Maryland where Hillary has just as big of leads in the polls as she does in NY.

I think he has a better shot there though than NY. Bernie's and Trump's trade policy positions should play well in Pennsylvania.

 

[MrT]

Looks like the Dem establishment is doing a great job denying the people of New York their voting rights.

It's the same reason that Trump's kids aren't allowed to vote for their dad.

Honestly, we just need to push every state to automatically register their citizens based on DMV data - like the system that exists in Oregon.

 

[Abbazorkzog]

Media will declare this a victory for Hillary if Bernie doesn't win by 15 points or more tonight... which of course isn't going to happen.

Well, that may be true, but, as we Bernie supporters have seen, time and time again, this will be largely false.