New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s [W:42:48]

[LowDown]

Daily temperature records for the continental US were examined for maximum and minimum temperatures. Extreme heat events were catalogued by time, duration, magnitude, and place. A single hot day did not an EHE make; they apparently had to be on the order of days long, i.e., a heat wave. Between the 1930s and 2000s extreme heat events became less common in general. The linear trends tended to depend on how EHEs were defined, i.e., what temperature had to be exceeded for it to be called an EHE.

Data compiled by the EPA also shows that 'heat waves' are significantly less common now than they were in the 1930s (however they define the term).

If you plot out the number of hurricanes by year it's obvious that they are not more common now than they were in decades past.

If you plot out the number of tornadoes by year it's obvious that they are less common, not more common, than in decades past.

Floods, droughts, you name it. No change.

I'm sure there are at least a few types of extreme weather events that have gotten more common. That much is to be expected by chance. But the idea that weather is more extreme in general is not supported by the data.

According to the charts, global temperatures have risen by 0.5 degrees C since 1930, a small fraction of normal temperature variation. You wouldn't expect that to cause big changes.

 

[longview]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Daily temperature records for the continental US were examined for maximum and minimum temperatures. Extreme heat events were catalogued by time, duration, magnitude, and place. A single hot day did not an EHE make; they apparently had to be on the order of days long, i.e., a heat wave. Between the 1930s and 2000s extreme heat events became less common in general. The linear trends tended to depend on how EHEs were defined, i.e., what temperature had to be exceeded for it to be called an EHE.

Data compiled by the EPA also shows that 'heat waves' are significantly less common now than they were in the 1930s (however they define the term).

If you plot out the number of hurricanes by year it's obvious that they are not more common now than they were in decades past.

If you plot out the number of tornadoes by year it's obvious that they are less common, not more common, than in decades past.

Floods, droughts, you name it. No change.

I'm sure there are at least a few types of extreme weather events that have gotten more common. That much is to be expected by chance. But the idea that weather is more extreme in general is not supported by the data.

According to the charts, global temperatures have risen by 0.5 degrees C since 1930, a small fraction of normal temperature variation. You wouldn't expect that to cause big changes.

What we have seen is a big increase in reporting of events.
The strange thing is, if we were getting increased insulation or lack of heat loss from Co2,
the effect would be most noticeable in the evening lows, not the daily highs.

 

[ecofarm]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

According to the charts, global temperatures have risen by 0.5 degrees C since 1930, a small fraction of normal temperature variation. You wouldn't expect that to cause big changes.

Wait, what?

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Indeed the vast bulk of US state temperature records were set in the 1930s with only one such state record being broken in the last 18 years

 

[donsutherland1]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Daily temperature records for the continental US were examined for maximum and minimum temperatures. Extreme heat events were catalogued by time, duration, magnitude, and place. A single hot day did not an EHE make; they apparently had to be on the order of days long, i.e., a heat wave. Between the 1930s and 2000s extreme heat events became less common in general. The linear trends tended to depend on how EHEs were defined, i.e., what temperature had to be exceeded for it to be called an EHE.

Data compiled by the EPA also shows that 'heat waves' are significantly less common now than they were in the 1930s (however they define the term).

If you plot out the number of hurricanes by year it's obvious that they are not more common now than they were in decades past.

If you plot out the number of tornadoes by year it's obvious that they are less common, not more common, than in decades past.

Floods, droughts, you name it. No change.

I'm sure there are at least a few types of extreme weather events that have gotten more common. That much is to be expected by chance. But the idea that weather is more extreme in general is not supported by the data.

According to the charts, global temperatures have risen by 0.5 degrees C since 1930, a small fraction of normal temperature variation. You wouldn't expect that to cause big changes.

Three points:

1. The report deals with the incidence of extreme heat events in the continental U.S., not on a global basis.

2. From the abstract: Continental scale increases between 1970 and 2010 were mostly offset by the decreases between 1930 and 1970.

In other words, the incidence of such events has been on the rise. That latter timeframe coincides with the period during which forcing related to rising CO2 emissions has been greatest.

3. The U.S. temperature trend, not the global trend, is more relevant when dealing with continental U.S. EHEs.

The 1930s, of course, experienced an historic drought, which played a leading role in the extreme U.S. heat experienced during that decade. Would a similar magnitude drought produce even hotter conditions today? The increase in U.S. temperatures since the 1930s suggests that it would, but until such a drought occurs one can't really test that assumption.

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Three points:

1. The report deals with the incidence of extreme heat events in the continental U.S., not on a global basis.

It didnt claim to represent a global analysis

2. From the abstract: Continental scale increases between 1970 and 2010 were mostly offset by the decreases between 1930 and 1970.

In other words, the incidence of such events has been on the rise. That latter timeframe coincides with the period during which forcing related to rising CO2 emissions has been greatest

Yet only one state maximum temperature record has been set in the last 18 years according to NOAA South Dakota in 2006. Ironically six states have recorded record minimum temperatures over that same time frame, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Wisconsin

3. The U.S. temperature trend, not the global trend, is more relevant when dealing with continental U.S. EHEs.

The OP link wasnt making any point about global trends

The 1930s, of course, experienced an historic drought, which played a leading role in the extreme U.S. heat experienced during that decade. Would a similar magnitude drought produce even hotter conditions today? The increase in U.S. temperatures since the 1930s suggests that it would, but until such a drought occurs one can't really test that assumption

Unlikely given the extra CO2 in the atmosphere makes plants more resistent to water stress and drought

 

[Deuce]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

What we have seen is a big increase in reporting of events.
The strange thing is, if we were getting increased insulation or lack of heat loss from Co2,
the effect would be most noticeable in the evening lows, not the daily highs.

... it is more noticeable in evening lows.

 

[longview]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

... it is more noticeable in evening lows.

Two containers one with insulation one without, same external heat source on both for 12 hours.
If you are measuring temperatures inside both containers, the cleanest measurement would be the
cool down after the heat source is removed.
The warm up curve has more noise, so is less accurate.
An average daily temperature can be raised by raising ether the high or the low,
so it is possible for the average to go up, without new daytime highs.

 

[Threegoofs]

New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

While its interesting to see fifty datapoints divided by sort of arbitrary political boundaries like states, its a bit more instructive to look at the entire dataset of temperatures we have to see how many record highs and lows we are setting.

And with millions of datapoints, the pattern is quite clear.

This, of course, is based of peer reviewed scientific research in Geophysical Research Letters, but I'll link to the UCAR explanation for those without journal access.

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/1036/record-high-temperatures-far-outpace-record-lows-across-us

The world is getting warmer, and the more carefully you look, the clearer it is.

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Interestingly this article came out at the height of global warming hysteria in 2009. Ironically the only state temperature record broken that year was a record low for Maine in January.

I suspect a bit of 'Hansenization' by omission of inconvenient low points has been engineered here to get the results 'required' given that in the entire decade only South Dakota set a record high and was the only state to do so in the last 18 years

 

[Threegoofs]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Interestingly this article came out at the height of global warming hysteria in 2009. Ironically the only state temperature record broken that year was a record low for Maine in January.

I suspect a bit of 'Hansenization' by omission of inconvenient low points has been engineered here to get the results 'required' given that in the entire decade only South Dakota set a record high and was the only state to do so in the last 18 years

Right. Because the record all time lows around political boundaries are better science than analysis of millions of datapoints.

Of course, the study was done by scientists and even worse, was peer reviewed in a well known journal, and we all know how you feel those points are considerably less rigorous than blog posts.

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Right. Because the record all time lows around political boundaries are better science than analysis of millions of datapoints.

Of course, the study was done by scientists and even worse, was peer reviewed in a well known journal, and we all know how you feel those points are considerably less rigorous than blog posts

The records are what they are . Sorry you dont like em and prefer something that is trying to engineer its way around them in support of an agenda but thems the breaks.

If the map I posted misrepresented those NOAA records in any way be sure and let us know :mrgreen:

 

[Threegoofs]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

No, it didn't misrepresent it. It's just less robust if you're trying to infer something about temperature trends.

But I find it curious that you dismiss the better data I showed in favor of your less robust info.

(Actually, I'm kidding. I don't find it curious at all. I quite expected it)

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

No, it didn't misrepresent it. It's just less robust if you're trying to infer something about temperature trends.

But I find it curious that you dismiss the better data I showed in favor of your less robust info.

(Actually, I'm kidding. I don't find it curious at all. I quite expected it)

So where is this 'better data' I've 'dismissed' that supports the schematic ? It certainly isnt on your link

Needless to say I didnt need to read too far to see how they had massaged their figures to get the result they were after

The study team focused on weather stations that have been operating since 1950. They found that the ratio of record daily high to record daily low temperatures slightly exceeded one to one in the 1950s, dipped below that level in the 1960s and 1970s, and has risen since the 1980s. The results reflect changes in U.S. average temperatures, which rose in the 1950s, stabilized in the 1960s, and then began a warming trend in the late 1970s.

That rather too conveniently filters out the record breaking 30s and 40s confirming my assertion that this is indeed an agenda driven piece :roll:

 

[Threegoofs]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

So where is this 'better data' I've 'dismissed' that supports the schematic ? It certainly isnt on your link

Needless to say I didnt need to read too far to see how they had massaged their figures to get the result they were after

The study team focused on weather stations that have been operating since 1950. They found that the ratio of record daily high to record daily low temperatures slightly exceeded one to one in the 1950s, dipped below that level in the 1960s and 1970s, and has risen since the 1980s. The results reflect changes in U.S. average temperatures, which rose in the 1950s, stabilized in the 1960s, and then began a warming trend in the late 1970s.

That rather too conveniently filters out the record breaking 30s and 40s confirming my assertion that this is indeed an agenda driven piece :roll:

I look forward to you repeating that study with those additional datapoints. But without the data, I have to say your post is 'mere supposition'.

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

I look forward to you repeating that study with those additional datapoints. But without the data, I have to say your post is 'mere supposition'.

Really ? Which part ?

The 30s were clearly warmer in the States so deal with it

The graph below shows the number of all time record daily US maximums which were set or tied per year, for all USHCN stations with contiguous records going back to the year 1900 and extending through 2011

The top five years for setting record maximums were all during the 1930s. No year this century even shows up in the top fifteen.



http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/10/a-simple-proof-that-the-1930s-were-hotter/

 

[Threegoofs]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Mere speculation.

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Mere speculation.

Prove it . Wheres your missing 30s data contradicting this ?

 

[ethanUNC]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Really ? Which part ?

The 30s were clearly warmer in the States so deal with it

The graph below shows the number of all time record daily US maximums which were set or tied per year, for all USHCN stations with contiguous records going back to the year 1900 and extending through 2011

The top five years for setting record maximums were all during the 1930s. No year this century even shows up in the top fifteen.

View attachment 67156449

A Simple Proof That The 1930s Were Hotter | Real Science

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to accomplish here. What do Tmax/Tmin have to do with the overall effect of global warming?

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to accomplish here. What do Tmax/Tmin have to do with the overall effect of global warming?

The OP wasnt about global warming it was about historic temperatures within the continental US. I was simply affirming its conclusions

Do keep up

 

[ethanUNC]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

The OP wasnt about global warming it was about historic temperatures within the continental US. I was simply affirming its conclusions

Do keep up

Tmax/Tmin have nothing to do with overall temperatures, though. You wrote that the 1930s were warmer because the maximums were higher. This is an example of the fallacy of composition, where you say something is true as a whole because one component is true.

We can clearly see that temperatures were lower in the 1930s:



(Source: NASA)

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Tmax/Tmin have nothing to do with overall temperatures, though. You wrote that the 1930s were warmer because the maximums were higher. This is an example of the fallacy of composition, where you say something is true as a whole because one component is true.

We can clearly see that temperatures were lower in the 1930s:

Not in the continental US they werent as per the OP. Try to stay on topic :roll:

 

[ethanUNC]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Not in the continental US they werent as per the OP. Try to stay on topic :roll:

Ah, I see. Even though it's irrelevant to global warming, we still see a warming trend:

 

[flogger]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Ah, I see. Even though it's irrelevant to global warming, we still see a warming trend:

Source please

 

[ethanUNC]

Re: New Paper Finds Extreme Heat Waves Less Common Than in 1930s

Source please

I'm having trouble finding it.

Here is a source from Berkeley: