New Hampshire Prediction Thread

[tres borrachos]

Sanders: "Tomorrow I'm not going to Wall Street to a fundraiser."

Ugh, he's actually going to NYC to pander to that asshole Al Sharpton. That disappoints me, although I know he needs to lock up more of the black vote.

 

[tres borrachos]

I don't see his support going to trump so I can see Bush or Kasich getting it. Probably not much going to Rubio after he personally humiliated him in that last debate.

I'll take a guess that Christie would endorse Kasich.

 

[Lovebug]

Actually, she did lose votes from her win here in 2008. She won a 3-way race (with Edwards and Obama) with 39% of the vote. Last night she lost a 2-way race with 38% of the vote. She's in very very very big trouble IMO.

Good morning. We have a TV star among us?
I can't help but wonder who will carry more conservative states? Sanders did well in NH, and it pleases me. You know my thoughts on Hillary. I can't shake the feeling that tides will turn as we move south, for Dems and Reps alike.

 

[EMNofSeattle]

I'll take a guess that Christie would endorse Kasich.

Which makes Kasich 22% and Bush only 12, which means the Big GOP money is going to start politely asking Jeb and Rubio to bow out

 

[tres borrachos]

Good morning. We have a TV star among us?
I can't help but wonder who will carry more conservative states? Sanders did well in NH, and it pleases me. You know my thoughts on Hillary. I can't shake the feeling that tides will turn as we move south, for Dems and Reps alike.

Hi LB, for some odd reason people seem to be diminishing the impact of Sanders performances in Iowa and the gigantic win here yesterday. I don't get it. If I were Hillary, I'd be sweating bullets right now.

I was SO hoping one of the many major news media people would interview me but it didn't happen. Maybe I looked mean. Or drunk.

 

[tres borrachos]

Which makes Kasich 22% and Bush only 12, which means the Big GOP money is going to start politely asking Jeb and Rubio to bow out

I really don't see them pushing Bush out yet. I also don't know that they're sold on Kasich, which is a damn shame since he's a great candidate.

 

[imagep]

Hi LB, for some odd reason people seem to be diminishing the impact of Sanders performances in Iowa and the gigantic win here yesterday. I don't get it. If I were Hillary, I'd be sweating bullets right now.

I was SO hoping one of the many major news media people would interview me but it didn't happen. Maybe I looked mean. Or drunk.

Or maybe it's because you are a horse. They usually don't interview horses.

 

[tres borrachos]

Or maybe it's because you are a horse. They usually don't interview horses.

Oh ye of little faith.

 

[CanadaJohn]

Bush gets fourth after massively overspending to nuke the guy who came in fifth isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

No matter how you spin it, Rubio moving from almost 20% in some polls just days before, to 10% in the vote count shows a massive abandoning of the media spin around his third place finish in Iowa. Rubio claiming that his disastrous debate performance wasn't affecting what he was feeling on the ground in NH was delusional spinning.

What you call massive overspending is what his Super PAC likely calls money well spent since it has booted Bush into the lead of the establishment candidates going into South Carolina and we'll see if that materializes in the coming days.

 

[tres borrachos]

No matter how you spin it, Rubio moving from almost 20% in some polls just days before, to 10% in the vote count shows a massive abandoning of the media spin around his third place finish in Iowa. Rubio claiming that his disastrous debate performance wasn't affecting what he was feeling on the ground in NH was delusional spinning.

What you call massive overspending is what his Super PAC likely calls money well spent since it has booted Bush into the lead of the establishment candidates going into South Carolina and we'll see if that materializes in the coming days.

Rubio did a complete 180 on that last night. He admitted it was the debate issue that did him in. I wish he had said that before last night.

People are still trying desperately to discount and write off Bush. I'm not.

 

[CanadaJohn]

I was briefly on TV. :mrgreen: I didn't talk though, just was a background image.

Eye candy for the networks??

 

[MrT]

Make yours here. Mine is:

Trump 24 %
Rubio 18 %
Kasich 17 %
Cruz 13 %
Bush 13 %
Christie 8 %

So who came the closest with their prediction redress?

 

[cpwill]

No matter how you spin it, Rubio moving from almost 20% in some polls just days before, to 10% in the vote count shows a massive abandoning of the media spin around his third place finish in Iowa.

Well, no. It shows that Kasich boomed and took a crap ton of Rubio voters after Rubio choked in a very public and painful way, and Christie and Bush teamed up in nuking him with negative advertising across the state.

What you call massive overspending is what his Super PAC likely calls money well spent since it has booted Bush into the lead of the establishment candidates going into South Carolina and we'll see if that materializes in the coming days.

:lol: Bush came in fourth, dude. Kasich took major second, and Cruz beat Bush in New Hampshire.

Bush spent more money per voter than any other campaign, and he came in fourth. Not a strong second. Not tied with Kasich. Fourth. Both of our guys did well worse than our expectations last night. Self-Delusion doesn't help that.

 

[imagep]

Rubio did a complete 180 on that last night. He admitted it was the debate issue that did him in. I wish he had said that before last night.

People are still trying desperately to discount and write off Bush. I'm not.

I think that Bush is going to stay in through the convention. The way I understand if is if no candidate gets 50%+1 vote, then the delegates are no longer obligated to their pledge, and they are free to vote for Bush, who is what the establishment wanted to begin with.

Bush staying in also helps Bush and Rubio both save face when they loose Florida. They will claim that they lost because the votes were split between them. Of course the reality is that if the pools are correct, even if you added Bush and Rubio votes together, Trump would still win Florida.

 

[cpwill]

I really don't see them pushing Bush out yet. I also don't know that they're sold on Kasich, which is a damn shame since he's a great candidate.

Yup. I think Rubio, Kasich, and Bush fight it out for a bit.

 

[CanadaJohn]

Rubio did a complete 180 on that last night. He admitted it was the debate issue that did him in. I wish he had said that before last night.

People are still trying desperately to discount and write off Bush. I'm not.

Good morning TB

You're absolutely right about Rubio - the American people are perhaps the greatest at giving people who admit mistakes a second chance. Had Rubio simply come out, a little sheepishly, and said something like he's still learning the game in Presidential primaries and he hadn't realized that he was starting to sound a little to scripted and he was going to work on getting better, I think a lot of people would have stayed with him. Instead, he claimed he was just saying what he feels and believes and he wasn't going to stop and he didn't do badly in the debate. That was a mistake and it cost him. He should have followed Bush's lead - Bush has criticized his own performance on the campaign trail and noted how he's had to change and that's helped him.

 

[CanadaJohn]

Well, no. It shows that Kasich boomed and took a crap ton of Rubio voters after Rubio choked in a very public and painful way, and Christie and Bush teamed up in nuking him with negative advertising across the state.



:lol: Bush came in fourth, dude. Kasich took major second, and Cruz beat Bush in New Hampshire.

Bush spent more money per voter than any other campaign, and he came in fourth. Not a strong second. Not tied with Kasich. Fourth. Both of our guys did well worse than our expectations last night. Self-Delusion doesn't help that.

I don't see how my comments are delusional in any way - that's perhaps a sign of delusion, but I'll carry on.

1. Bush had two goals last night - revive his candidacy and better Rubio. Bush was polling anywhere from around 7% to upwards of 13% - his average on RCP was under 10% - he got over 11% - how you claim that is worse than expectations, I don't know. I said I had hoped it would be Kasich and Bush fighting it out for second/third. That wasn't far off.

2. I also claimed I'd be surprised if Cruz beat Bush - he beat him by a few hundred votes and I am surprised, but when you look at the exit polls and the level of independent voters who voted against the establishment, it's no longer that surprising. Ted Cruz benefited from Rand Paul dropping out after Iowa and Cruz garnered a large majority of Ron Paul's Libertarian vote from back in 2012 when he came in second to Romney. I miscalculated that part of the equation.

3. There's no way to spin Rubio's showing positively - that's a huge boost for Bush going into South Carolina - we'll see how that turns out.

 

[cpwill]

I don't see how my comments are delusional in any way - that's perhaps a sign of delusion, but I'll carry on.

:mrgreen: it is the surest. The fact that you don't understand that Rubio actually took first last night only indicates that you need help. It's all a conspiracy by the media to keep it under wraps, I tell you.

1. Bush had two goals last night - revive his candidacy and better Rubio. Bush was polling anywhere from around 7% to upwards of 13% - his average on RCP was under 10% - he got over 11% - how you claim that is worse than expectations, I don't know. I said I had hoped it would be Kasich and Bush fighting it out for second/third. That wasn't far off.

I think you predicted Bush either coming in a strong second, or tying Kasich. Bush was polling around fifth, and he made it to fourth. Across the GOP Primary, he is currently tied with Ben Carson for fifth:



Now, he needed to destroy Rubio to have a chance to hang on, last night, and he accomplished that goal, sure. But he is in no way "the leading establishment contender". He's took fifth place in New Hampshire and he's in fifth place as a delegate count. Confidently claiming leadership status for him isn't any more realistic than confidently asserting that he was going to take second last night.

 

[poweRob]

Delegate count thus far in the race for the Dems:

Clinton: 394
Sanders: 42

This includes all the super-delegates that have pledged for Hillary. The good news is, super-delegates can change their minds and are more likely to this election than her last prez election being that there is no threat leverage she can hold over them in the future if they change their mind. Being that she wont be running again if she doesn't win this time. So I can see some switching allegiance should Bernie's momentum keeps gaining ground.


Super-delegates... what a corrupt system. She landed a ton of super-delegate pledges before even the first vote was cast. They have absolutely no loyalties to their constituents. Just to who helps them raise the most money for their own elections.

 

[Redress]

So who came the closest with their prediction redress?

I will go through and declare a winner sometime this afternoon.

 

[CanadaJohn]

:mrgreen: it is the surest. The fact that you don't understand that Rubio actually took first last night only indicates that you need help. It's all a conspiracy by the media to keep it under wraps, I tell you.



I think you predicted Bush either coming in a strong second, or tying Kasich. Bush was polling around fifth, and he made it to fourth. Across the GOP Primary, he is currently tied with Ben Carson for fifth:

View attachment 67196896

Now, he needed to destroy Rubio to have a chance to hang on, last night, and he accomplished that goal, sure. But he is in no way "the leading establishment contender". He's took fifth place in New Hampshire and he's in fifth place as a delegate count. Confidently claiming leadership status for him isn't any more realistic than confidently asserting that he was going to take second last night.

Firstly, Bush took fourth place in NH, not fifth, and he wasn't that far behind Cruz - and I see you completely ignored the relevant analysis I posted related to Cruz gaining from Rand Paul.

Secondly, Kasich was the only establishment candidate to beat Bush in NH and if you think Kasich has the money and organization to out perform Bush in the coming states, I'd love to see that analysis. Rubio was/is the only establishment candidate polling near Bush in South Carolina - Kasich is at about 2% there. Rubio has damaged his momentum, I'd say irreparably, and I'll predict that Bush's numbers start to move up in South Carolina as polling starts to increase leading up to their primary. Bush has the money and the organization and the forces on the ground in the Super Tuesday states and is poised to solidify his NH gains - Rubio and Kasich are in no such position.

Finally, the three candidate race you predicted last week will come to pass but instead of Rubio it will be Bush - Trump/Cruz/Bush - SC will solidify that. What will remain to be seen is how long the Trump/Cruz battle for the disaffected vote continues and whether the other candidates drop out before Super Tuesday.

This has been my scenario for how I've seen the Bush campaign all along. Nothing in Iowa, a bump and boost in NH, and then consolidated gains backed by money and organization as the race goes on. The other candidates have based their campaigns on making an early splash and then riding a wave - other than Trump, there's no serious wave and that gives Bush an edge. If you have an alternate leader of the establishment wing, I'd love to see the rationale for it.

 

[NeverTrump]

Super super happy for Kasich :elephantf. Bush did well too. Cruz has a masterful political machine that may rival clintons one day if it doesn't just evaporate after the election. He could easily be 2016's Santorum. Onto SC where it will be a Cruz VS Trump match one will surely win, unless Bush does something to upset. Carly is gone now, Christie will be gone by week's end. I guess I was wrong about him...

 

[akrunner88]

One thing I said in previous posts that I still hold firm to today is that on the republican side, the Iowa caucus is a poor indicator of national success. Much lower voter turnouts, much less diverse populace equates to evangelical victories for guys like Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz who normally should have no chance in hell.

I see Cruz struggling along merely for the fact that there's such a wide voter pool to still choose from that the votes spread out in a way that makes him look like a contender. But people are starting to tune in to the political process now, are starting to see these candidates faces on the news, and I just don't see Cruz turning on too many more voters.

 

[akrunner88]

On that same token with Bernie and Hillary, as people start tuning in more and more, many people who passively support Hillary Clinton are starting to realize Bernie is a viable alternative. And those that aren't too excited about Clinton are going to jump ship to the Bernie camp. That's why New Hampshire and Iowa were so critical for his continued success. If he can translate these primaries into a somewhat even loss, tie, or even victory in Nevada (doubt he'll win) I think this election is over for the Dems. His grass roots campaign is impressive and translates to higher turnout on actual primary Election Day.

 

[Absentglare]

Delegate count thus far in the race for the Dems:

Clinton: 394
Sanders: 42

This includes all the super-delegates that have pledged for Hillary. The good news is, super-delegates can change their minds and are more likely to this election than her last prez election being that there is no threat leverage she can hold over them in the future if they change their mind. Being that she wont be running again if she doesn't win this time. So I can see some switching allegiance should Bernie's momentum keeps gaining ground.


Super-delegates... what a corrupt system. She landed a ton of super-delegate pledges before even the first vote was cast. They have absolutely no loyalties to their constituents. Just to who helps them raise the most money for their own elections.

If Sanders continues to do this well, and the super-delegates throw their weight at Clinton to clinch the nomination, they're going to hurt themselves in the general.

Sanders has a stronger appeal to young voters who are more influenced by voter apathy. Forcing Clinton through is a recipe for low democratic voter turnout.

My sincere hope is that the candidates are chosen based on public, rather than private, support.