N. Korea vs. The Rest of the World

[repeter]

Everyone is starting to get really scared that there is going to be another conflict on the Korean Peninsula. If there is, most analysts agree that North Korea wouldn't be supported by China, unless the Chinese really want World War 3 on their doorstep. Analysts also agree that South Korea would win, but after significant civilian and military losses.

The North Korean army is 1.5 million strong, but like the Soviets, their weapons are heavily outdated. They rely on MiG-23's, 21's, and at the most 29's. Those are all outdated, and they would be massacred without an AWAC bird to coordinate them. Their tanks are of the T-54 and -55 series, which frankly suck. One M1A2 Abrams could massacre an entire battalion of those suckers. Their navy is rather large, but also outdated. Their submarine fleet would only be viable for Special Force insertion, and are manned by a crew on 19, who barely can work in there. The surface fleet is a threat by sheer numbers, but would be massacred by S. Korean and US ships. The only real threat of the North Korean armed forces are their artillery, and most importantly their chemical weapons.

The USAF and South Korean Air Force would massacre the North's "air force" and would savage ground reserves, and truck columns. The US Navy carriers would strikeenemy ground formations, and the South Korean's would control the seas. The mass of enemy ground forces would run into defiladed tanks, and dug-in infantry positions. The only danger is the North's use of chemical weapons...

The South would take losses, and there would be a refugee crisis, as well as lots of harmful chemical weapons all over the place, but the South would eventually win. Chine would not fight for an ally they don't like, and they would not want to start World War 3 on their turf.

 

[Tashah]

The problem is, NK has thousands of artillery barrels and multiple-rocket launchers targeted on Seoul. NK could inflict horrific death and destruction on the city just in the initial barrage. Seoul is a hostage to North Korean insanity. There is no way to circumvent this reality.

 

[nerv14]

The problem is, NK has thousands of artillery barrels and multiple-rocket launchers targeted on Seoul. NK could inflict horrific death and destruction on the city just in the initial barrage. Seoul is a hostage to North Korean insanity. There is no way to circumvent this reality.

The only way to avoid that would be some sort of first strike to knock out N Korean artillery and other ranged weapons. But I don't think any of that is possible. those win-all strategies never seem to work...

So i think there will be high casualities for South Korea if there is any recontinuation of war.

 

[nerv14]

The problem is, NK has thousands of artillery barrels and multiple-rocket launchers targeted on Seoul. NK could inflict horrific death and destruction on the city just in the initial barrage. Seoul is a hostage to North Korean insanity. There is no way to circumvent this reality.

The only way to avoid that would be some sort of first strike to knock out N Korean artillery and other ranged weapons. But I don't think any of that is possible. those win-all strategies never seem to work...

So i think there will be high casualities for South Korea if there is any recontinuation of war.

 

[rathi]

North Korea has little chance at offensive action. The supply lines for a massed offensive would simply be a huge juicy target for U.S. airpower.

The problem is if NK decides not actually mount an offensive. They could simply dig in, while attacking South Korea and Japan with artillery, missiles and WMD's. The rough terrain and extensive defenses would make the fighting far more difficult.

Regardless of what path they take, Nk cannot win if they start a war. However, huge amounts of damage and civilian casualties could not be avoided.

 

[Orion]

Tashah is right. NK doesn't need a nuclear deterrent as long as there are people who care about the welfare of the South. Their first strike capability is potent enough that it would make any victory against them a bittersweet one at best. The loss of life in SK would be devastating.

 

[repeter]

Tashah is right. NK doesn't need a nuclear deterrent as long as there are people who care about the welfare of the South. Their first strike capability is potent enough that it would make any victory against them a bittersweet one at best. The loss of life in SK would be devastating.

And the only way to move avoid that, or least decrease the loss of life in Seoul would be an massive pre-emptive air attack against the mass of artillery massed north of the 38th parallel. The loss of some air crews would be less of a loss then the loss of the industrial capacity of an entire city, not to mention the morale loss of the citizens there. But, the attack on Seoul would actually be like Pearl Harbor, driving the South to not end the war until there was only Korea left standing.

The war we're talking about is becoming more and more imminent, but aI personally don't think it will occur. The North Koreans know they will lose. They know they won't have the military support of China, and they will be facing their stronger counterpart on the peninsula, not to mention American and Japanese support. They would die, simple as that. They might go out with a bang, but they will lose. And I don't think Kim Il wants to be executed or killed just yet.

 

[Scorpion89]

A few things for all of you to understand about NK.

First both Russia and China have already in back door discussion have made it clear to the head Moron that if he even tries anything both Russia and China will attack.

Over the past few weeks the Russian have moved three Combat Divission from Kamchuck Pen to the NK border and have put three of their seven Combat Airwings on stand-by alerts. In China they have move three tank units to the border and have moved two Bomber Squadron to a forward base near the border which would make them less then 10 minutes over all NK Military base's.

As for the NK tanks they are not T-54s most of the T-54 have been sold over seas. There main Battle tank is a very modified version of the T-62 called Ch'onma-ho IV and V most of these have the Kontakt-5 explosive reactive armour (EDZ) they have a 115MM Barrel and upgraded 700 horsepower 5TDF engine that the ND got from The Morozov Design Bureau (KMDB). Also they have small number of Long Barrel T-72s and T-90s that they got from Slovina.

 

[repeter]

A few things for all of you to understand about NK.

First both Russia and China have already in back door discussion have made it clear to the head Moron that if he even tries anything both Russia and China will attack.

Over the past few weeks the Russian have moved three Combat Divission from Kamchuck Pen to the NK border and have put three of their seven Combat Airwings on stand-by alerts. In China they have move three tank units to the border and have moved two Bomber Squadron to a forward base near the border which would make them less then 10 minutes over all NK Military base's.

As for the NK tanks they are not T-54s most of the T-54 have been sold over seas. There main Battle tank is a very modified version of the T-62 called Ch'onma-ho IV and V most of these have the Kontakt-5 explosive reactive armour (EDZ) they have a 115MM Barrel and upgraded 700 horsepower 5TDF engine that the ND got from The Morozov Design Bureau (KMDB). Also they have small number of Long Barrel T-72s and T-90s that they got from Slovina.

Ok, they North Koreans have enemies on all sides of their border, and their army can't hope to defeat all of them, much less half of them.

The Russians and Chinese alone could beat the N. Koreans, and they have a very high readiness level. They would steam roll the North's in a moments notice.

The North Korean weapons are still outdated, regardless of the fact that they are upgraded T-62's. An Abrams, or T-90 could still steamroll right over them. The Russian air force is also rather formidable, so North Korea probably won't tyr anything, unless they are suicidal.

 

[Scorpion89]

Ok, they North Koreans have enemies on all sides of their border, and their army can't hope to defeat all of them, much less half of them.

The Russians and Chinese alone could beat the N. Koreans, and they have a very high readiness level. They would steam roll the North's in a moments notice.

The North Korean weapons are still outdated, regardless of the fact that they are upgraded T-62's. An Abrams, or T-90 could still steamroll right over them. The Russian air force is also rather formidable, so North Korea probably won't tyr anything, unless they are suicidal.

My hope is that he will listing to the Russian and Chinese and stop all of this madness.

 

[repeter]

My hope is that he will listing to the Russian and Chinese and stop all of this madness.

Well, one of the biggest goals of any dictator is self-preservation. I doubt he will get try and fight, and end up getting himself killed...along with "his" country.

 

[rathi]

Well, one of the biggest goals of any dictator is self-preservation. I doubt he will get try and fight, and end up getting himself killed...along with "his" country.

I agree, but Kim reign is almost over. There is soon going to be transfer of power, and the where the risk lies. It is possible that complete maniac might take power, or just an idiot who thinks he can use a war to unify the country. Other possibilities include an attempted coup that the soldiers confuse for a South Korea attack, or so much instability that WMDs go missing. History has countless examples of succession causing conflicts, and I fear NK is just going to be yet another footnote.

 

[kaya'08]

I agree, but Kim reign is almost over. There is soon going to be transfer of power, and the where the risk lies. It is possible that complete maniac might take power, or just an idiot who thinks he can use a war to unify the country. Other possibilities include an attempted coup that the soldiers confuse for a South Korea attack, or so much instability that WMDs go missing. History has countless examples of succession causing conflicts, and I fear NK is just going to be yet another footnote.

This country doesnt just have the potential of creating huge destruction in SK, but all over the world. Think about it. NK is a rogue state. For the right price, what would stop them giving WMD to terrorists who have beef with the US or Israel?

 

[Oftencold]

Everyone is starting to get really scared that there is going to be another conflict on the Korean Peninsula. If there is, most analysts agree that North Korea wouldn't be supported by China, unless the Chinese really want World War 3 on their doorstep. Analysts also agree that South Korea would win, but after significant civilian and military losses.

The North Korean army is 1.5 million strong, but like the Soviets, their weapons are heavily outdated. They rely on MiG-23's, 21's, and at the most 29's. Those are all outdated, and they would be massacred without an AWAC bird to coordinate them. Their tanks are of the T-54 and -55 series, which frankly suck. One M1A2 Abrams could massacre an entire battalion of those suckers. Their navy is rather large, but also outdated. Their submarine fleet would only be viable for Special Force insertion, and are manned by a crew on 19, who barely can work in there. The surface fleet is a threat by sheer numbers, but would be massacred by S. Korean and US ships. The only real threat of the North Korean armed forces are their artillery, and most importantly their chemical weapons.

The USAF and South Korean Air Force would massacre the North's "air force" and would savage ground reserves, and truck columns. The US Navy carriers would strikeenemy ground formations, and the South Korean's would control the seas. The mass of enemy ground forces would run into defiladed tanks, and dug-in infantry positions. The only danger is the North's use of chemical weapons...

The South would take losses, and there would be a refugee crisis, as well as lots of harmful chemical weapons all over the place, but the South would eventually win. Chine would not fight for an ally they don't like, and they would not want to start World War 3 on their turf.

Your assessment of military hardware appears sound. However, I think it very unlikely that our current Administration would authorize massive U.S. military action until the casualty rate was very high.

It really wouldn't matter very much to the dead who got to claim to "win" such a conflict.

The United States has essentially renounced its place as the enforcer of minimal international civility, and the predictable results are beginning to occur.

 

[kaya'08]

Your assessment of military hardware appears sound. However, I think it very unlikely that our current Administration would authorize massive U.S. military action until the casualty rate was very high.

It really wouldn't matter very much to the dead who got to claim to "win" such a conflict.

The United States has essentially renounced its place as the enforcer of minimal international civility, and the predictable results are beginning to occur.

The US should have otherthrown the regime permanently and given it to the South long ago.

 

[Tashah]

Your assessment of military hardware appears sound. However, I think it very unlikely that our current Administration would authorize massive U.S. military action until the casualty rate was very high.

That would happen rather quickly. The US has thousands of soldiers close to the DMZ.

 

[kaya'08]

Your assessment of military hardware appears sound. However, I think it very unlikely that our current Administration would authorize massive U.S. military action until the casualty rate was very high.

I think they would step in well before that. The Americans are dying to get into Korea again. Any excuse would be good enough. Also these WMD's must not and cannot get lost in the whole process of the conflict, i think that would be the No 1 priority, concern and reason for the Americans to get into NK.

 

[obvious Child]

That would happen rather quickly. The US has thousands of soldiers close to the DMZ.

Do you think that the soldiers there know that they are really nothing more than a switch?

Thinking about it, this isn't the first time that the US has placed its soldiers in a position where they are meant to die to ensure that the US will have political support to commit to the fight. The US placed insufficient troops on the Saudi border during the early stages of Iraq's Kuwaiti invasion with nowhere near the necessary numbers and equipment to stop a full invasion. The US did the same thing with US troops in Germany and France against the Soviets. And of course no one tells them that.

 

[repeter]

Do you think that the soldiers there know that they are really nothing more than a switch?

Thinking about it, this isn't the first time that the US has placed its soldiers in a position where they are meant to die to ensure that the US will have political support to commit to the fight. The US placed insufficient troops on the Saudi border during the early stages of Iraq's Kuwaiti invasion with nowhere near the necessary numbers and equipment to stop a full invasion. The US did the same thing with US troops in Germany and France against the Soviets. And of course no one tells them that.

Yes, the 28,500 men in S. Korea wouldn't be any use against the North Koreans 1.2 Million men. But, they are meant ot buy time for the South Koreans. And, politically, we look good to have them stationed on the border. Besides those men, I doubt we will try re-enacting MacArthur's ampib attack. We will probably relegate ourselves to maintaining air superiority ( or at least air parity) and blasting the hell out of the N. Korean supply lines. A huge American involvement doesn't seem likely. But, China, Russian, and Japan most likely won't just sit on the bylines like us. One or more might attack N. Korea.

 

[Khayembii Communique]

Why is this in the "War on Terror" forum?

 

[repeter]

Why is this in the "War on Terror" forum?

Axis of Evil. Nowhere else to put it that seems mainly about war. War on Terror seemed about as close as I could get to this subject. Not to mention, North Korea has been considered a terrorist state hasn't it? And they probably want, or are supplying terrorists with weapons so....yeah.

 

[talloulou]

Moderator's Warning:

Thread moved to proper forum.

 

[Khayembii Communique]

Axis of Evil.

Oh, because Bush said it...

Nowhere else to put it that seems mainly about war. War on Terror seemed about as close as I could get to this subject. Not to mention, North Korea has been considered a terrorist state hasn't it? And they probably want, or are supplying terrorists with weapons so....yeah.

Really? Which terrorists are those? And what on earth is a "terrorist state"?

 

[repeter]

Oh, because Bush said it...



Really? Which terrorists are those? And what on earth is a "terrorist state"?

Are we really arguing the labels we put on the North Koreans? They are the enemy. Simple as that. Call them whatever you want to. Also, a US President made a remark that put Iran and North Korea into the same group, and regardless of that President's incompetency, Iran is a terrorist state ( that is to say, they fund, and support terrorists, and have their own terrorist faction), just like Lebanon, and some others as well. And N. Korea most likely is funding some sort of insurgency somewhere in the world, which is acting against us. The reason I don't know the name of them, is because of the rivalry, and incompetency in the US intel agencies.

 

[Khayembii Communique]

Are we really arguing the labels we put on the North Koreans? They are the enemy. Simple as that. Call them whatever you want to. Also, a US President made a remark that put Iran and North Korea into the same group, and regardless of that President's incompetency, Iran is a terrorist state ( that is to say, they fund, and support terrorists, and have their own terrorist faction), just like Lebanon, and some others as well. And N. Korea most likely is funding some sort of insurgency somewhere in the world, which is acting against us. The reason I don't know the name of them, is because of the rivalry, and incompetency in the US intel agencies.

So basically your statements are completely based on political posturing and blind faith.