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James Hansen's Multiple Failed Global Warming Doomsday Ultimatums

LowDown

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Starting in 2006, Hansen issued a number of ultimatums. In all cases if we didn't do as he wanted by this or that date then we were all doomed. Those dates have come and gone. We are not doomed, we are not about to be doomed.

Deadlines are designed to force you into a sale before you’ve had time to think,” the Better Business Bureau warns. Hansen’s tactics are somewhere between an over-eager salesman and a scammer, to which the BBB recommends:

Pay attention to your emotions. This may sound touchy-feely, but high pressure sales are all about manipulation. If you start to feel overwhelmed, anxious, rushed or like you just can’t think clearly, come to your own rescue. Walk out of the room. Hang up. Tell the salesperson to leave.

We should tell Hansen to go away.

James Hansen’s Failed Ultimatums: A Free Market, Anyone? - IER
 

bubbabgone

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Starting in 2006, Hansen issued a number of ultimatums. In all cases if we didn't do as he wanted by this or that date then we were all doomed. Those dates have come and gone. We are not doomed, we are not about to be doomed.



We should tell Hansen to go away.

James Hansen’s Failed Ultimatums: A Free Market, Anyone? - IER

The various State AGs push to shut people up are failing too and Al Gore thinks he's a green Jackie Robinson.
Takes all kinds, I guess, but do we really need them?
 

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.....
 

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bubbabgone

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Oh look the 1970s global cooling myth again. Second time this week.

It was Hansen himself's myth but, yes, it was just natural climate fluctuations just like the warming is.
But as alarmist propaganda they both can work well provided they can get kindred souls to ring the bell in support.
Some things don't change easily when there's big free bucks involved.
 

Deuce

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It was Hansen himself's myth but, yes, it was just natural climate fluctuations just like the warming is.
But as alarmist propaganda they both can work well provided they can get kindred souls to ring the bell in support.
Some things don't change easily when there's big free bucks involved.

No, James Hansen helped develop some software that someone else used to predict an ice age. Suggesting he predicted an ice age is kinda like suggesting Dell or Microsoft wrote the Harry Potter series because the author used Microsoft Word on a laptop to write it.

And that paper in question predicted an ice age if global aerosols were increased by a factor of 4. "If X, then Y" is not the same thing as "predicting Y will happen."

Furthermore, in the 1970s climate research was in its infancy. There were some differing ideas on what to expect, but predictions of cooling were always the minority. (and thats predictions of cooling, not ice ages)

You know why everyone totally remembers the ice age predictions of the 1970s? Time Magazine and Newsweek. Journalists doing what journalists always do when it comes to reporting on science: blowing it way out of proportion because that sells copies.
 
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Lord of Planar

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You know why everyone totally remembers the ice age predictions of the 1970s? Time Magazine and Newsweek. Journalists doing what journalists always do when it comes to reporting on science: blowing it way out of proportion because that sells copies.

And the AWG threat today, like all journalistic/pundit ventures, is blown out of proportion too.
 

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The facts in the IPCC vs. what they claim do not line up. You should stop your trust in political bodies.

Every scientific organization in the world supports them.

I guess I could believe random internet posters who have no expertise in the field but study it really intently at their kitchen table, but that would be...idiotic.
 

Lord of Planar

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Every scientific organization in the world supports them.

I guess I could believe random internet posters who have no expertise in the field but study it really intently at their kitchen table, but that would be...idiotic.

Only because they are reliant on the same cash cows.
 

Lord of Planar

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Yes, we know.
ITS A GIANT GLOBAL LIBRUL CONSPIRACY!

Why cant you learn? It is not a conspiracy for individuals to do what is in their best interest, independently?

You have been told this several times, but you keep throwing out the same strawman.

Can you say IDIOT?
 

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Why cant you learn? It is not a conspiracy for individuals to do what is in their best interest, independently?

You have been told this several times, but you keep throwing out the same strawman.

Can you say IDIOT?

The giant pool of money (presumably you mean the NSF) is distributed by scientists.

This is no strawman.

It's a frank assessment of your ludicrous position.

You think your furious kitchen table scribblings are proving all of science wrong.

That's about as idiotic as it gets, although delusional and pathetic are probably much better descriptors.
 

Deuce

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And the AWG threat today, like all journalistic/pundit ventures, is blown out of proportion too.

Absolutely. Poster boy for that is spokesman-with-a-political-degree Al Gore. "If Greenland's ice melted, oceans would rise this much!" Technically true, by some estimates. He left out the part about present rates giving us about a thousand years to prepare.

Which is why I tell you guys over and over to stop ****ing listening to journalists, politicians, and spokesmen. They don't know what the **** they're talking about.

So, I expect I'll never hear about the impending ice age from you again, right? Because that was just media nonsense and now you know that the scientists never thought that. Right?
 
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Every scientific organization in the world supports them.

I guess I could believe random internet posters who have no expertise in the field but study it really intently at their kitchen table, but that would be...idiotic.
If the empirical data does not support the IPCC's position, (and it only supports the extreme low end),
then the length of the line of groups or people supporting an invalidated position is irrelevant.
Most of the IPCC's catastrophic claims are predicated on an ECS greater than 3C.
The timing is based on whichever RCP we are on.
While some areas of Climate science have advanced, the reality is the climate system is too complex for us to accurately predict.
The feedbacks both amplify and attenuate, but we seem to have a poor understanding of scale of the inputs.
From the data, it appears that CO2 plays only a minor role, causing mostly nighttime winter warming.
 

bubbabgone

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No, James Hansen helped develop some software that someone else used to predict an ice age. Suggesting he predicted an ice age is kinda like suggesting Dell or Microsoft wrote the Harry Potter series because the author used Microsoft Word on a laptop to write it.

And that paper in question predicted an ice age if global aerosols were increased by a factor of 4. "If X, then Y" is not the same thing as "predicting Y will happen."

Furthermore, in the 1970s climate research was in its infancy. There were some differing ideas on what to expect, but predictions of cooling were always the minority. (and thats predictions of cooling, not ice ages)

You know why everyone totally remembers the ice age predictions of the 1970s? Time Magazine and Newsweek. Journalists doing what journalists always do when it comes to reporting on science: blowing it way out of proportion because that sells copies.


Yeah. The computer models are how all the other predictions were made and then failed. That was the point. When you can feed in random numbers and still get the same stunning results it would normally be a sign that maybe the software is hinky.

And you shouldn't complain about the media. They're the ones who've been keeping the dream alive for decades.
 

Deuce

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Yeah. The computer models are how all the other predictions were made and then failed. That was the point. When you can feed in random numbers and still get the same stunning results it would normally be a sign that maybe the software is hinky.

And you shouldn't complain about the media. They're the ones who've been keeping the dream alive for decades.

You think random numbers get the same results, and the same models can predict both ice ages and a warming planet.

Interesting.
 

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You think random numbers get the same results, and the same models can predict both ice ages and a warming planet.

Interesting.

Still have never figured out how these idiots thing plotting temperatures on a curve can somehow produce the same curve with random numbers.

Either they've never graphed data, or think that anyone who does it is as stupid as they are.
 

Deuce

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Still have never figured out how these idiots thing plotting temperatures on a curve can somehow produce the same curve with random numbers.

Either they've never graphed data, or think that anyone who does it is as stupid as they are.

They think the software calculating the curve is cheating to always form a hockey stick.

But also forms ice ages sometimes?

(these people think past and present temperatures are plotted in the same software that projects future temperatures, maybe?)
 

Threegoofs

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They think the software calculating the curve is cheating to always form a hockey stick.

But also forms ice ages sometimes?

(these people think past and present temperatures are plotted in the same software that projects future temperatures, maybe?)

But the plotting doesn't NEED to be done by software, and eyeballing the data should tell you where the curve should lie.

I mean, and average temp of 56 degrees is pretty obvious to plot on a graph of time.

I mean, here's a database for Pages 2k.

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/...eS2-Regional-Temperature-Reconstructions.xlsx

How do you run this thru some magical program that will create a fixed shape when it's all a function of time and temp??

It makes no sense, and none of them can ever explain it.
 
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Jack Hays

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You think random numbers get the same results, and the same models can predict both ice ages and a warming planet.

Interesting.

[h=2]McShane and Wyner 2010[/h]A reader (h/t ACT) draws attention to an important study on proxy reconstructions (McShane and Wyner 2010) in the Annals of Applied Statistics (one of the top statistical journals)
A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?

It states in its abstract:
We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago.
They cite the various MM articles.



 

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[h=2]McShane and Wyner 2010[/h]A reader (h/t ACT) draws attention to an important study on proxy reconstructions (McShane and Wyner 2010) in the Annals of Applied Statistics (one of the top statistical journals)
A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?

It states in its abstract:
We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago.
They cite the various MM articles.




Again...no one can explain it, they just regurgitate blogs.

And the paper cited has been well documented as deeply flawed.

https://deepclimate.org/2010/08/19/mcshane-and-wyner-2010/

The funniest thing about McShane and Wyner is that they put the data through their own program...and came out with this:

18c941780371ebe04f7350b9b9f3dc63.gif


The Curious Case of the Hockey Stick that Didn't Disappear. Part 1: The Police Lineup | ThinkProgress

But the denier blogs always ignore that part....
 

Jack Hays

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The funniest thing about McShane and Wyner is that they put the data through their own program...and came out with this:

Thank you for making my point. The conclusion of McShane & Wyner was that random statistical noise would produce a hockey stick. You have mistaken their devastating conclusion for an error.
 
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