• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!
  • Welcome to our archives. No new posts are allowed here.

Is Clinton Slipping?

Abbazorkzog said:
WOW now you've escalated from the previous metric to doing this EVERY 5 MINUTES.

Just because you say something enough doesn't make it true. Seriously, knock it off.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...



"The only valid censorship of ideas is the right of people not to listen." ~ Tommy Smothers

Who forces you to read my posts?

Fill us in.
 
RetiredUSN said:
Not sure about the polls, but she almost did a header a few days ago. ;)
Click to expand...

The polls indicate they are tied. All Trump needs to do is shut his big fat stupid mouth for a few days and he'll lead and then go onto become President...

I'm not happy about it, but I won't deny the facts.
 
shrubnose said:
Only to those in the Alt-Right who dream that Trump will win.
Click to expand...

It is not so much that she has any serious health issues but that she and her campaign staff decided to initially lie about it. That lie was totally useless but further confirms the fact that she and her staff are dishonest.
 
joG said:
If she flubs it, she deserves to live under Trump.

And she will really piss me off.
Click to expand...
Abbazorkzog said:
The polls indicate they are tied. All Trump needs to do is shut his big fat stupid mouth for a few days and he'll lead and then go onto become President...

I'm not happy about it, but I won't deny the facts.
Click to expand...
IMNSHO - you're too quick to dismiss her, here.

In technical analysis I'm not sure if this recent Trumpian upward movement is a new trend-line, or normal vacillation around the normal "trading range", so to speak.

538: Odds

Predictwise: 2016 Presidential

Predictwise: Probability

Notice how we are most of the way, but not quite, where we were at in both pre-convention August and again in June.

Clearly, Trump has *not* broken out of his upward resistance point (at least as of yet).

This race was a 3-4 point race for quite a few months. Then Trump had his worst month (August), and the lead opened-up another maybe 5 points. But she couldn't/didn't put him away; she sat on her heels quietly collecting money, hoping he would self-destruct. Now, she has had her worst several weeks of the campaign, coincident with his best several weeks. But at best, he isn't quite even tied with her (in terms of electoral college votes and national polls), much less winning.

And now she's back on the campaign trail heading into the debates, and her popular surrogates (Obama, Bernie, Biden, et al) will be heading out around the country.

So at this point, I'm thinking what we're seeing is more-or-less in the normal variance range of this campaign, and like all variance it will tend to settle back. At the end of August everyone spoke doom & gloom for Trump, and in my posts then I cautioned that he wasn't out yet - and I'm now stating the same here for Hillary.

Now some here are claiming a change in fundamentals (Trump reset/HRC negative tipping point). That remains to be seen and is a valid train of thought, but I'd need to see Trump ahead nationally by at least a few percentage points in the vast majority of the polls (+3pts minimum), and also winning by a few states in the Electoral College (~300 EV+), in order to claim he broke out of his resistance points. I suppose it could happen, but right now there's no way I'd make that claim (yet).

On to the debates! :thumbs:
 
Last edited:
Abbazorkzog said:
WOW now you've escalated from the previous metric to doing this EVERY 5 MINUTES.

Just because you say something enough doesn't make it true. Seriously, knock it off.
Click to expand...

I most whole heartily agree.
 
ttwtt78640 said:
It is not so much that she has any serious health issues but that she and her campaign staff decided to initially lie about it. That lie was totally useless but further confirms the fact that she and her staff are dishonest.
Click to expand...

Realistically, not so much a confirmation of her and her staff being dishonest (hell everyone already knew that), but more of 'yet another instance' and 'yet another reminder' that Hillary and her staff are dishonest and liars, not just when necessary, seemingly at every opportunity.
 
Hillary's main problem...right now...is that her credibility is so low that even her compliant media is taking shots at her over it. It's even coming to the point where some left-wing media is complaining about how other left-wing media is treating her. :lol:
 
Chomsky said:
IMNSHO - you're too quick to dismiss her, here.

In technical analysis I'm not sure if this recent Trumpian upward movement is a new trend-line, or normal vacillation around the normal "trading range", so to speak.

538: Odds

Predictwise: 2016 Presidential

Predictwise: Probability

Notice how we are most of the way, but not quite, where we were at in both pre-convention August and again in June.

Clearly, Trump has *not* broken out of his upward resistance point (at least as of yet).

This race was a 3-4 point race for quite a few months. Then Trump had his worst month (August), and the lead opened-up another maybe 5 points. But she couldn't/didn't put him away; she sat on her heels quietly collecting money, hoping he would self-destruct. Now, she has had her worst several weeks of the campaign, coincident with his best several weeks. But at best, he isn't quite even tied with her (in terms of electoral college votes and national polls), much less winning.

And now she's back on the campaign trail heading into the debates, and her popular surrogates (Obama, Bernie, Biden, et al) will be heading out around the country.

So at this point, I'm thinking what we're seeing is more-or-less in the normal variance range of this campaign, and like all variance it will tend to settle back. At the end of August everyone spoke doom & gloom for Trump, and in my posts then I cautioned that he wasn't out yet - and I'm now stating the same here for Hillary.

Now some here are claiming a change in fundamentals (Trump reset/HRC negative tipping point). That remains to be seen and is a valid train of thought, but I'd need to see Trump ahead nationally by at least a few percentage points in the vast majority of the polls (+3pts minimum), and also winning by a few states in the Electoral College (~300 EV+), in order to claim he broke out of his resistance points. I suppose it could happen, but right now there's no way I'd make that claim (yet).

On to the debates! :thumbs:
Click to expand...

I like that. :)
 
Captain Adverse said:
IMO?

1. Her health. It's pretty clear to most that there is something seriously wrong with her health and that she is hiding it.

2. Her "Deplorable's" comment is almost the equivalent of Mitt Romney's "47%" gaffe back in 2012.

3. The email/secrets controversy simply won't go away, despite all efforts of her media supporters.

4. She hasn't really been campaigning very hard, very few press conferences.

5. She's not a very good public speaker.

6. She has a lot of negative history that shadows her campaign.

7. She's alienated most "Democrats for Bernie"

8. People just don't trust her. The more they see...the greater the distrust.

9. She represents the old school of status quo insider politics, and let's face it...more and more people are looking for a change, ANY change.

With all of the above combining to make her less and less palatable as the election draws closer, more and more of her support is wavering. Unless she does something to alleviate it soon...who knows?
Click to expand...

that actually is a really good analysis

one of the best common sense posts i have seen around here in quite some time
 
joG said:
Let's be truthfull here. She is so bad a candidate that very many people would never think of voting for her, if it weren't for the other one.
Click to expand...

IMO, the D deserve to lose simply because they put such a bad candidate on the table. Ditto the R. Both deserve what they get. The people? We'll survive. We always do.
 
Trump hasn't been shooting himself in the foot lately. I think Roger Ailes is advising him and Ailes is one of the few people Trump respects enough to listen to. As despicable as Ailes is there is no denying he is politically savvy.

The question is can Trump keep this, relatively, sane act going until November. I tend to doubt it.
 
Abbazorkzog said:
Dude.

.........You say this like three times a thread, in ten threads an hour, 24 hours a day.
At this point I am almost certain the only person you're trying to convince is yourself.
Click to expand...

Just what I was thinking. I know the sound of whistling past the graveyard when I hear it.
 
Captain Adverse said:
IMO?

1. Her health. It's pretty clear to most that there is something seriously wrong with her health and that she is hiding it.

2. Her "Deplorable's" comment is almost the equivalent of Mitt Romney's "47%" gaffe back in 2012.

3. The email/secrets controversy simply won't go away, despite all efforts of her media supporters.

4. She hasn't really been campaigning very hard, very few press conferences.

5. She's not a very good public speaker.

6. She has a lot of negative history that shadows her campaign.

7. She's alienated most "Democrats for Bernie"

8. People just don't trust her. The more they see...the greater the distrust.

9. She represents the old school of status quo insider politics, and let's face it...more and more people are looking for a change, ANY change.

With all of the above combining to make her less and less palatable as the election draws closer, more and more of her support is wavering. Unless she does something to alleviate it soon...who knows?
Click to expand...
I would like to add to this well thought out list the continuing revelations of the blatant philandering and wife-disrespecting Bill Clinton that sends a subliminal message that Hillary is "undesirable" not to mention weak for putting up with it.

Though this may be no big deal to the considerable left of center, not only do the many non-hypocrites socially right of center object to such behavior, but the vast majority, nearly everyone at the center of the traditional political spectrum, are repulsed by it as well.

Trump's wacky behavior would have caused him to lose every state primary against the likes of a Ronald Reagan and he would have been slaughtered in the national against even Obama.

Yet he's slightly ahead of Clinton in the current polls.

This suggests that a number of Clinton supporters are not tremendously enthusiastic about her and have merely resigned to their perspective of the lesser of two evils.

Even though one might think the country would jump on the first-woman-President bandwagon like they did similarly with Obama as the first President of color, that simply doesn't appear to be happening in Hillary's case.
 
Abbazorkzog said:
The polls indicate they are tied. All Trump needs to do is shut his big fat stupid mouth for a few days and he'll lead and then go onto become President...

I'm not happy about it, but I won't deny the facts.
Click to expand...


Trump is only half tolerable when he's reading from a script...and he can't even be trusted to do that.
 
Captain Adverse said:
IMO?

1. Her health. It's pretty clear to most that there is something seriously wrong with her health and that she is hiding it.

2. Her "Deplorable's" comment is almost the equivalent of Mitt Romney's "47%" gaffe back in 2012.

3. The email/secrets controversy simply won't go away, despite all efforts of her media supporters.

4. She hasn't really been campaigning very hard, very few press conferences.

5. She's not a very good public speaker.

6. She has a lot of negative history that shadows her campaign.

7. She's alienated most "Democrats for Bernie"

8. People just don't trust her. The more they see...the greater the distrust.

9. She represents the old school of status quo insider politics, and let's face it...more and more people are looking for a change, ANY change.

With all of the above combining to make her less and less palatable as the election draws closer, more and more of her support is wavering. Unless she does something to alleviate it soon...who knows?
Click to expand...

Sadly they are mostly true.

I could add one here if I may. ----- People have short memories.

Just because there have been fewer reports lately on Trump's bizarre interviews, hateful speeches, ( actually, he is still doing it out there ), doesn't mean Trump is no more Trump.

I am not a candidate, I can blame voters. :lol:
 
joG said:
I like that. :)
Click to expand...
I had a feeling that would draw you out. ;)

I believe in investing using the classic adage: "Buy when there's blood in the streets"

The end of august was the time to buy Trump.

The next few days may be the time to buy Clinton.
 
trump does not have the Hispanic vote.

Consistent with these perceptions, Clinton is poised to win the votes of 70% of Latino voters compared to 19% for Trump. Although less well known, the profiles of the parties’ vice-presidential candidates, Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Mike Pence, are similar to those of their running mates (Kaine total favorable 53%, total unfavorable 19%; Pence total favorable 27%, total unfavorable 41%).
Click to expand...

New Poll Results: America?s Voice/LD 2016 National Latino Voter Survey | Latino Decisions
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom