Inflation 7%

[jonny5]

Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.

 

[jonny5]

U.S. inflation up 7%, rising faster than at any time since 1982 - here’s what is up the most

Both new and used vehicles continue to increase in price. Used cars and trucks are 37.3% more expensive than 12 months ago, and new vehicles are 11.8% higher.

 

[jonny5]

White House saying we should give people free child care to free up resources to spend on other things. Not sure they know how money works. A bit alarming as this is the White House Economic Advisor. I suppose they could mean free as in debt.

 

[eohrnberger]

Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.

If I understand this correctly, whatever compensation you worked for last month, is not worth 7% less (can purchase 7% less goods and services) this month?
If this keeps going like it is, before the end of the year, you really will have to take a wheelbarrow full of cash to the store to get a loaf of bread!

 

[Exquisitor]

Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.

7% is not so dismal as twelve.

I would say certainly increase, but since most of this is the pandemic, I would hope inflation to fall from 7%.

 

[Ishm]

If I understand this correctly, whatever compensation you worked for last month, is not worth 7% less (can purchase 7% less goods and services) this month?
If this keeps going like it is, before the end of the year, you really will have to take a wheelbarrow full of cash to the store to get a loaf of bread!

7% year on year I think. Since the prior data point was with the country in full pandemic mode it may be that the starting point was articially low. Quick google check suggests around 9% total inflation since 2019. Not sure how accurate that data is but the 7% may not be as bad as it seems on the surface.

 

[Mycroft]

Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.

The problem with touting 7%...bad as it is...is that that is an average number. When you look at individual categories, inflation is MUCH worse.

 

[Goshin]

This is not good. 3% is pretty much normal. This is more than double normal.

I hope it doesn't go higher. Double digit inflation sucks.

 

[jmotivator]

This is not good. 3% is pretty much normal. This is more than double normal.

I hope it doesn't go higher. Double digit inflation sucks.

It's also outpacing wage gains, so people are falling behind in purchase power.

Even worse, low income people are hit hardest by the gasoline inflation and that is going to be awful in the summer. We very well might see well over $5 average here in the US which will absolutely hammer everything else.

 

[eohrnberger]

7% year on year I think. Since the prior data point was with the country in full pandemic mode it may be that the starting point was articially low. Quick google check suggests around 9% total inflation since 2019. Not sure how accurate that data is but the 7% may not be as bad as it seems on the surface.

Well, that's my question really. I want to understand what this 7% or 12% is representing.

If that measured month on month, so that Dec 2021 - 7% = Jan 2022, and then Jan 2022 - 7% = Feb 2022, etc. etc. that's far worse.
Or is that measuring against a calendar year ago, like Jan 2021 - 7% = Jan 2022? Not that this is good, but far less dire than the prior.

Which is it? Month to month? Or year to year? Or something else?

 

[trixare4kids]

White House saying we should give people free child care to free up resources to spend on other things. Not sure they know how money works. A bit alarming as this is the White House Economic Advisor. I suppose they could mean free as in debt.

When Brian Deese deflects to the media should focus on "historic wage increases" instead of talking about inflation, there's a problem.

 

[trixare4kids]

The problem with touting 7%...bad as it is...is that that is an average number. When you look at individual categories, inflation is MUCH worse.

View attachment 67368915

Oh but, but, but... Historic wages growth compensates for all the above nothingburger.

 

[rahl]

It's almost like right wingers have never taken a basic econ 101 course. How is anyone at all surprised that inflation is at 7%, as the economy is absolutely booming and on the rebound from one of the worst global pandemics we have ever seen?

 

[eohrnberger]

It's also outpacing wage gains, so people are falling behind in purchase power.

Even worse, low income people are hit hardest by the gasoline inflation and that is going to be awful in the summer. We very well might see well over $5 average here in the US which will absolutely hammer everything else.

Not all of this impact can be hand waved away as all the pandemic's fault. The fed printing up money with a mouse click certainly must have had a significant contributing factor, considering the unchallenged assertion that 40% of the dollars now in circulation were created by the fed through overly generous pandemic relief by the House in present session.

 

[rahl]

Not all of this impact can be hand waved away as all the pandemic's fault. The fed printing up money with a mouse click certainly must have had a significant contributing factor, considering the unchallenged assertion that 40% of the dollars now in circulation were created by the fed through overly generous pandemic relief by the House in present session.

who printed money? why do you guys need to make things up?

 

[Ishm]

Well, that's my question really. I want to understand what this 7% or 12% is representing.

If that measured month on month, so that Dec 2021 - 7% = Jan 2022, and then Jan 2022 - 7% = Feb 2022, etc. etc. that's far worse.
Or is that measuring against a calendar year ago, like Jan 2021 - 7% = Jan 2022? Not that this is good, but far less dire than the prior.

Which is it? Month to month? Or year to year? Or something else?

Year to year. A 12 month measure not a 1 month measure.

Take out the artificial impact of covid on inflation in 2020 and 7% is probably more truly 5% to 6%. Still too high, but covid is now affecting costs differently as the economic recovery has driven demand ahead of a supply system that has sufferred significant inventory depletion. Again, mostly due to covid, although weather issues have also helped push up food pricing on top of processing and logistics issues.

I expect true inflation to start dropping later this year, but there is still a lot of govt stimulus (too much imo) working through the economy. The trick is to try and create a 'soft landing' as the stimulus wears off and probably monetary conditions get tightened. Going to be tough to avoid another mini recession while taming inflation imo.

 

[noonereal]

If I understand this correctly, whatever compensation you worked for last month, is not worth 7% less (can purchase 7% less goods and services) this month?
If this keeps going like it is, before the end of the year, you really will have to take a wheelbarrow full of cash to the store to get a loaf of bread!

Christ, this is like living under Reaganomics!

 

[Kushinator]

If I understand this correctly, whatever compensation you worked for last month, is not worth 7% less (can purchase 7% less goods and services) this month?

No....

 

[j brown's body]

Inflation actually eased last month.

 

[eohrnberger]

No....

Oh so enlightening when compared to:

Year to year. A 12 month measure not a 1 month measure.

Take out the artificial impact of covid on inflation in 2020 and 7% is probably more truly 5% to 6%. Still too high, but covid is now affecting costs differently as the economic recovery has driven demand ahead of a supply system that has sufferred significant inventory depletion. Again, mostly due to covid, although weather issues have also helped push up food pricing on top of processing and logistics issues.

I expect true inflation to start dropping later this year, but there is still a lot of govt stimulus (too much imo) working through the economy. The trick is to try and create a 'soft landing' as the stimulus wears off and probably monetary conditions get tightened. Going to be tough to avoid another mini recession while taming inflation imo.

Try harder to contribute?

 

[Kushinator]

It's also outpacing wage gains, so people are falling behind in purchase power.

If you cherry-pick months and ignore other recent time periods of heavy real wage gains, then you are correct.

Take out the artificial impact of covid on inflation in 2020 and 7% is probably more truly 5% to 6%. Still too high, but covid is now affecting costs differently as the economic recovery has driven demand ahead of a supply system that has sufferred significant inventory depletion. Again, mostly due to covid, although weather issues have also helped push up food pricing on top of processing and logistics issues.

I take a more traditional approach to understanding inflation, and hold core CPI and the PCE price index as a more accurate measurement of inflation in the context of policy / analysis.

I expect true inflation to start dropping later this year

Again... it depends on what people are measuring and from when are they measuring. The baseline references will not be reflective of a deflationary / disinflationary environment.

but there is still a lot of govt stimulus (too much imo) working through the economy. The trick is to try and create a 'soft landing' as the stimulus wears off and probably monetary conditions get tightened. Going to be tough to avoid another mini recession while taming inflation imo.

Monetary policy isn't doing much to drive inflation... it's a sudden change in consumer preference that creates a production mismatch. Due to the impact of a global pandemic, consumption patterns have flat out changed.

Oh so enlightening when compared to:

Try harder to contribute?

People like you are the problem. Limited knowledge base, but an uncanny desire to make remarks motivated by partisanship. Consider your comment about wheel barrels it shows just how out of touch you are with regards to what's being discussed. Then you have the audacity to call foul on my contributions to this thread.

Anyone who could possibly think CPI growth was 7% this month is a complete imbecile.

 

[Kushinator]

White House saying we should give people free child care to free up resources to spend on other things. Not sure they know how money works. A bit alarming as this is the White House Economic Advisor. I suppose they could mean free as in debt.

A significant amount of labor force constraint is due to the high cost of child care. If it costs $600 / week per child for daycare, and you only net $800 / week, i can see how many dual-income households would change their behavior. It's one of the reasons why we shouldn't close schools at this stage, as such an action impedes the labor market recovery.

 

[eohrnberger]

If you cherry-pick months and ignore other recent time periods of heavy real wage gains, then you are correct.

I take a more traditional approach to understanding inflation, and hold core CPI and the PCE price index as a more accurate measurement of inflation in the context of policy / analysis.

Again... it depends on what people are measuring and from when are they measuring. The baseline references will not be reflective of a deflationary / disinflationary environment.

Monetary policy isn't doing much to drive inflation... it's a sudden change in consumer preference that creates a production mismatch. Due to the impact of a global pandemic, consumption patterns have flat out changed.

People like you are the problem. Limited knowledge base, but an uncanny desire to make remarks motivated by partisanship. Consider your comment about wheel barrels it shows just how out of touch you are with regards to what's being discussed. Then you have the audacity to call foul on my contributions to this thread.

Anyone who could possibly think CPI growth was 7% this month is a complete imbecile.

Perhaps not an 'imbecile' but perhaps not as well informed as might be needed. I'm asking questions to gain a greater understanding, as per my post:

Well, that's my question really. I want to understand what this 7% or 12% is representing.

If that measured month on month, so that Dec 2021 - 7% = Jan 2022, and then Jan 2022 - 7% = Feb 2022, etc. etc. that's far worse.
Or is that measuring against a calendar year ago, like Jan 2021 - 7% = Jan 2022? Not that this is good, but far less dire than the prior.

Which is it? Month to month? Or year to year? Or something else?

Both the 7% and 12% came from another poster, and I was questioning it.

Don't know why you have to call people 'imbeciles' who are seeking greater understanding about it. Maybe that's just you?

 

[Kushinator]

Perhaps not an 'imbecile' but perhaps not as well informed as might be needed. I'm asking questions to gain a greater understanding, as per my post:
Both the 7% and 12% came from another poster, and I was questioning it.

Nobody would ever take issue with you not being familiar with the data / measurement. It's this remark that is most telling of your motivation:

If this keeps going like it is, before the end of the year, you really will have to take a wheelbarrow full of cash to the store to get a loaf of bread!

This remark is obviously motivated by partisanship.

Don't know why you have to call people 'imbeciles' who are seeking greater understanding about it. Maybe that's just you?

At the end of this year, take a wheelbarrow full of cash to a store, and just maybe you'll be able to understand my response.

 

[jmotivator]

If you cherry-pick months and ignore other recent time periods of heavy real wage gains, then you are correct.

You do realize that you just did exactly what I did, right?

Also, pointing out that 50% gasoline and 40% heating oil inflation is hitting low income people the hardest isn't cherry picking, it's just a fact you don't like. And as I said, people are paying summer gas prices in winter, just wait until they are hit with summer prices...

And add that to the 37% inflation in the used car market...

But hey, cereal and milk prices haven't risen so much, so rejoice.. right?