Inflation 7%

[jonny5]

The real point here is you have record inflation at a time when the govt is paying people not to work. You have shortages of labor and stuff, and massive dependency on govt. And their solution is do even more of the same? Its madness. GDP has been declining all year, debt has been increasing all year.

At what point will Biden get to the same conclusion as he did on COVID, that the federal govt isnt the solution? People are the problem. We dont need free child care, we need people to stop having children they cant afford to care for.

 

[Kushinator]

You do realize that you just did exactly what I did, right?

You are plucking specific months while refusing to acknowledge the longer term trend. Real earnings are up:

In fact, real average weekly earnings have increased by 1.6% since February 2020. To put it into perspective... real average weekly earnings grew by 1.02% between January 2017 and February 2020.

 

[Kushinator]

The real point here is you have record inflation at a time when the govt is paying people not to work.

Who is the government paying not to work? Enhanced unemployment benefits expired months ago, and continuing claims are below pre-pandemic levels.

GDP has been declining all year

This is a lie.

GDP has grown by $1.7 trillion through the first three quarters of 2021 alone.

We dont need free child care, we need people to stop having children they cant afford to care for.

 

[mrjurrs]

White House saying we should give people free child care to free up resources to spend on other things. Not sure they know how money works. A bit alarming as this is the White House Economic Advisor. I suppose they could mean free as in debt.

Nope. If govt subsidizes child care, parents have money that was spent on childcare available for other expenses.

 

[jmotivator]

You are plucking specific months while refusing to acknowledge the longer term trend. Real earnings are up:

In fact, real average weekly earnings have increased by 1.6% since February 2020. To put it into perspective... real average weekly earnings grew by 1.02% between January 2017 and February 2020.

Because high hammers you today regardless of whether it is up over all in 1984 dollars.

And again, essentials like gasoline an heating oil being 40% higher shoots the shit out of a constrained budget no matter how low milk inflation is.

You are the typical Marie Antoinette levels of confused in you goofy defense here... just replace bread and cakes with heating oil and cereal respectively. You are incapable of seeing anything real that effects real people beyond your FRED graphs.

Edit: By the way, the spike in wages in 2020 was likely more due to the loss of low paying jobs than any real gains.

 

[Kushinator]

Because high hammers you today regardless of whether it is up over all in 1984 dollars.

Umm... what? I can make it from any year. That has nothing to do with my point.

And again, essentials like gasoline an heating oil being 40% higher shoots the shit out of a constrained budget no matter how low milk inflation is.

If you are consuming well in excess of the typical budget for items like energy, then yes, these higher prices are going to be felt more so than if you live in a warm climate and commute to work by walking / biking. Anyone can pick cherries... it doesn't make you special.

You are incapable of seeing anything real that effects real people beyond your FRED graphs.

I'm just posting the data. Real earnings have increased over longer time intervals, e.g. since February 2020. Multiple instances of cherry picking (heating oil, November) to attack a strawman is about the best we can expect from you.

 

[jmotivator]

Umm... what? I can make it from any year. That has nothing to do with my point.

Sigh. It has everything to do with THE point. You are trying to argue that the spike in wages in 2020 means everything is great, ignoring that the "gains" (which really weren't) in 2020 have been falling ever since.

If you are consuming well in excess of the typical budget for items like energy, then yes, these higher prices are going to be felt more so than if you live in a warm climate and commute to work by walking / biking. Anyone can pick cherries... it doesn't make you special.

That isn't how that works, Kushinator. A person who uses 10 gallons of gasoline a week going to and from work doesn't suddenly use a third less gas because the price jumped 50%. They still have to use 10 gallons to get to work, but now their budget is short.

Likewise, someone on a tight budget who has budgeted for $550 to fill their heating oil tank now has to come up with $200+ above their budget to keep the heat on.

And this will hit the food budget, etc. down the line.

And God forbid they need to replace their car and have to pay the upcharge on used cars today.

But hey, if they had any money to spare they might have been able to save some money on box of Wheaties...

I'm just posting the data. Real earnings have increased over longer time intervals, e.g. since February 2020. Multiple instances of cherry picking (heating oil, November) to attack a strawman is about the best we can expect from you.

You are posting data, but you are bitching and moaning when other people post data that you don't like. All you ever seem to have is the 50,000ft view through a FRED chart, with a complete inability to ever see reality at ground level. Like I said, you display precisely the kind of delusion that spawns idiotic statement like "Let them Eat Cake".

 

[rahl]

The real point here is you have record inflation at a time when the govt is paying people not to work.

I have no idea how this lie is still being repeated by you guys on the right. How many times do you need this disproven? Nobody, is being paid not to work.

You have shortages of labor and stuff, and massive dependency on govt.

Who is dependent on govn't?

And their solution is do even more of the same? Its madness. GDP has been declining all year, debt has been increasing all year.

At what point will Biden get to the same conclusion as he did on COVID, that the federal govt isnt the solution? People are the problem. We dont need free child care, we need people to stop having children they cant afford to care for.

do you even have kids? Have you ever had to pay for child care?

 

[Kushinator]

You are trying to argue that the spike in wages in 2020 means everything is great, ignoring that the "gains" (which really weren't) in 2020 have been falling ever since.

I'm stating a fact... that wages are 1.6% higher than they were in February 2020 when we account for inflation. The foundation of your position is based on fallacious reasoning, given your propensity to cherry pick.

A person who uses 10 gallons of gasoline a week going to and from work doesn't suddenly use a third less gas because the price jumped 50%. They still have to use 10 gallons to get to work, but now their budget is short.

Food and energy are volatile, which is why economists also use price indices that exclude these goods when analyzing inflation.

Nevertheless, the price of gasoline has increased 31% from pre-pandemic levels, meaning that 10 gallons of gas that used to be $24.46 for this person now costs $33, or an additional $8.54. This is a real increase in the price of gasoline, and if all else were equal, it is problematic.

However, a person's wages have increased from $980 / week to $1087 / week, meaning they have an additional $107 / week to spend. Undoubtedly, prices increases have eaten up much of the gains, but overall, a person is earning 1.6% more than they were prior to the pandemic even when we account for price increases. For obvious partisan reasons, you want to ignore the reality in order to push a narrative. It won't work. Prices have increased... so have wages. Cherry picking individual months doesn't negate the longer term trend of overall wage / earnings gains.

You are posting data, but you are bitching and moaning when other people post data that you don't like.

I'm calling out others for posting misleading data. What i like has nothing to do with it. You are just really bad at understanding what these various data sets mean, and once again ignorance gets the best of you.

All you ever seem to have is

A strong grasp of the subject... you do not. And for butt-hurt partisan hacks like yourself, understanding the concepts, how they are measured, how they relate to consumer behavior, etc... makes it difficult to push deceitful and fallacious claims. Go cry somewhere else.

 

[jmotivator]

I'm stating a fact... that wages are 1.6% higher than they were in February 2020 when we account for inflation. The foundation of your position is based on fallacious reasoning, given your propensity to cherry pick.

And I'm stating facts too. You just don't like those facts so you think they should be ignored. You have this bizarre position that we should ignore 40+% increases in essential costs because not all essentials increased that much, and it makes you look detached and clueless.

Food and energy are volatile, which is why economists also use price indices that exclude these goods when analyzing inflation.

And how is that supposed to matter to the people struggling to pay for gas and heat? Again, you are in "let them eat cake" levels of delusion.

Nevertheless, the price of gasoline has increased 31% from pre-pandemic levels, meaning that 10 gallons of gas that used to be $24.46 for this person now costs $33, or an additional $8.54. This is a real increase in the price of gasoline, and if all else were equal, it is problematic.

However, a person's wages have increased from $980 / week to $1087 / week, meaning they have an additional $107 / week to spend. Undoubtedly, prices increases have eaten up much of the gains, but overall, a person is earning 1.6% more than they were prior to the pandemic even when we account for price increases. For obvious partisan reasons, you want to ignore the reality in order to push a narrative. It won't work. Prices have increased... so have wages. Cherry picking individual months doesn't negate the longer term trend of overall wage / earnings gains.

I argue the effect of inflation of low wage households, you try to refute it with national averages...

Also "if all else were equal" indeed.. since gasoline isn't the only rising cost. It's also going to get worse when summer gas pricing starts and that $9 extra a week becomes $20-30 extra.

Nice try, Kushinator.

I'm calling out others for posting misleading data. What i like has nothing to do with it. You are just really bad at understanding what these various data sets mean, and once again ignorance gets the best of you.

It isn't misleading data, it's inconvenient data to your narrative. You don't like the fact that inflation is rising faster than wages and you are willing to debase yourself to pretend it isn't a problem. Your own FRED charts show wage gains evaporating since the 2020 spike (which was more to do with the loss of low wage jobs than people getting raises)

A strong grasp of the subject... you do not.

No, yo really don't. You can't even differentiate low wage workers from average weekly pay. Like I said, you are trapped in a "Let them eat cake" delusion. You refuse to accept that your AVERAGE wage argument means nothing when discussing low wage workers.

And for butt-hurt partisan hacks like yourself, understanding the concepts, how they are measured, how they relate to consumer behavior, etc... makes it difficult to push deceitful and fallacious claims. Go cry somewhere else.

Oh irony! I'm not the one arguing that low income workers are fine because AVERAGE wages are up (and pay no attention that inflation is growing faster than wages!!)

 

[Ishm]

It's interesting to read all the protests over gas prices. Corrected for inflation they are only just above the 2018 summer peak. Were they destroying the economy back then? Also, wage growth over that period is above inflation, so gas today is effectively as affordable, or even more affordable, than in summer 2018. Why all the sudden angst

 

[jonny5]

It's interesting to read all the protests over gas prices. Corrected for inflation they are only just above the 2018 summer peak. Were they destroying the economy back then? Also, wage growth over that period is above inflation, so gas today is effectively as affordable, or even more affordable, than in summer 2018. Why all the sudden angst

1. interest rates go up making everything else go up, mainly the cost of all the debt everyone has and uses to buy anything big
2. some wages are up, mainly the lower end, everyone else is down - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...tel-and-restaurant-employees/ar-AASI20H?pfr=1
3. erosion of savings - if you saved 10k last year to buy a house, that house now costs 3.8% more. Your 10k isnt suddenly 3.8% more.

At the very least, costs go up, wages go up, so its a wash. Except it costs 10 trillion in debt which we have to pay interest on and eventually pay 10 trillion in taxes just to pay it back. For what? So people could not work to pay for things?

 

[Ishm]

1. interest rates go up making everything else go up, mainly the cost of all the debt everyone has and uses to buy anything big
2. some wages are up, mainly the lower end, everyone else is down - https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...tel-and-restaurant-employees/ar-AASI20H?pfr=1
3. erosion of savings - if you saved 10k last year to buy a house, that house now costs 3.8% more. Your 10k isnt suddenly 3.8% more.

At the very least, costs go up, wages go up, so its a wash. Except it costs 10 trillion in debt which we have to pay interest on and eventually pay 10 trillion in taxes just to pay it back. For what? So people could not work to pay for things?

Do you actually realise how small a part of the debt problem is caused by "people not working to pay for things". It's the great consevative distraction from much bigger economic failings. Go look at the actual numbers instead of repesting the political rhetoric. Unemployment welfare could disappear tomorrow and barely dent the deficit. You want to start fixing the deficit you need to look at healthcare costs, SS management, bang for buck value of defense spending. Trouble is, those are not politically palatable targets for conservative govts. Hence the distractions being needed.

I'm not against sensibly pressuring people to be self reliant and productive, but I am against political rhetoric that is aimed at deliberately distracting people from the real problems.

 

[Roadvirus]

Where the inflation is surging the most:

December inflation breakdown: Where are rising prices hitting consumers the hardest?

American households are grappling with the steepest price increase in almost four decades, paying more for everything from cars to gasoline to food as uncomfortably hot inflation erodes most workers' wage gains.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Kushinator]

And I'm stating facts too.

You're cherry picking and nothing else.

And how is that supposed to matter to the people struggling to pay for gas and heat?

Hiding behind impoverished people isn't a valid debate strategy. I have to explain the basics to you.

I argue the effect of inflation of low wage households

You're such a champion for low wage workers

you try to refute it with national averages...

Nonsense. You're trying to cherry pick in a desperate attempt to own libs.

It isn't misleading data, it's inconvenient data to your narrative.

It is a cherry pick to attack a strawman and nothing else

You don't like the fact that inflation is rising faster than wages

Only if you cherry pick the time frames. If we take a longer approach (pre-pandemic levels) it's clearly not the case. Wages are up 1.6%.

You can't even differentiate low wage workers from average weekly pay.

By all means, do your own work. It's not my responsibility to research your positions. If you believe this is the case, why are you not providing evidence?

I'm not the one arguing that low income workers are fine because AVERAGE wages are up (and pay no attention that inflation is growing faster than wages!!)

I haven't made any reference to low wage workers. You have... and you've also been unable to support your argument. The data is out there. Stop trying to use the poor as a shield for your partisanship. You don't give a ****... this is just a desperate act.

 

[jmotivator]

You're cherry picking and nothing else.

A year of inflation data is cherry picking, but wage data for the same period is valuable... ignore that it isn't keeping up with inflation.

Hiding behind impoverished people isn't a valid debate strategy. I have to explain the basics to you.

Projection. You are trying to hide the troubles of inflation on a large portion of the population by hiding behind average income charts.... or you can't tell the difference. Neither are a good look for you.

You're such a champion for low wage workers

And you aren't. You seem to think that the solution for low wage workers during a spike in inflation is to not be a low wage worker anymore.

Nonsense. You're trying to cherry pick in a desperate attempt to own libs.

YOY inflation isn't cherry picking, it's the data. And while you want to cast Inflation as cherry picked you push a spike in wages as significant while ignoring that your own provided evidence shows it is vanishing.

It is a cherry pick to attack a strawman and nothing else

No straw man. You have been trying to pretend like this inflation that has been going on for the better part of a year is going away any minute.. and it keeps not going away.

Only if you cherry pick the time frames. If we take a longer approach (pre-pandemic levels) it's clearly not the case. Wages are up 1.6%.

So you are opposed to my picking a time frame by picking a time frame? Last year inflation was 7% while average wage gains were 4.7%, netting a LOSS of 2.3% for average worker.

And your own charts show any short term wage gains are being eaten by inflation, but you stick your fingers in your ears and shout LALALALAALA! when people try to talk sense to you.

By all means, do your own work. It's not my responsibility to research your positions. If you believe this is the case, why are you not providing evidence?

You love to pretend that you are super expert of FRED charts but it doesn't ever seem to keep you from making clueless, pointless claims.

I haven't made any reference to low wage workers. You have... and you've also been unable to support your argument. The data is out there. Stop trying to use the poor as a shield for your partisanship. You don't give a ****... this is just a desperate act.

You keep arguing average wages and then pretend you are arguing low income wages. But keep going with your delusions.

 

[eohrnberger]

The real point here is you have record inflation at a time when the govt is paying people not to work. You have shortages of labor and stuff, and massive dependency on govt. And their solution is do even more of the same? Its madness. GDP has been declining all year, debt has been increasing all year.

At what point will Biden get to the same conclusion as he did on COVID, that the federal govt isnt the solution?

Not soon enough?

People are the problem. We dont need free child care, we need people to stop having children they cant afford to care for.

 

[Kushinator]

A year of inflation data is cherry picking, but wage data for the same period is valuable... ignore that it isn't keeping up with inflation.

You are only trying to point out the fall, while refusing to account for the huge spike at the beginning of the pandemic. Not once have you presented data pertaining to lower income quintiles, and have chose to create random examples and project them onto people of lower incomes. It's not only lazy... but inherently dishonest.

You are trying to hide the troubles of inflation on a large portion of the population by hiding behind average income charts.... or you can't tell the difference.

Then by all means, show me the data reflecting lower income earners. You won't because you can't. All you have done this entire exchange is attempt to weaponize poverty while simultaneously speculating on the trajectory of low income data. Not once have you presented anything that substantiates your position.

You seem to think that the solution for low wage workers during a spike in inflation is to not be a low wage worker anymore.

Strawman. What you think i seem to think has no bearing on this exchange. Why do you continue to post replies without the requisite data necessary to substantiate your positions? It's your claim the poor are getting hammered with inflation, but all you have brought forth are some vague references to 10 gallons of gasoline. Weak doesn't begin to describe your position.

YOY inflation isn't cherry picking, it's the data.

It is cherry picking. The baseline index points of reference for 2021 have been reflective early pandemic deflation / disinflation. You are purposefully highlighting a reversion to the mean while refusing to recognize the bigger picture. Yes... there has been some significant wage and price volatility during this global pandemic. However, when you observe the data across a longer time frame, wages have exceeded inflation by 1.6%.
If you have a point pertaining to lower wage earners... by all means. Provide the data to substantiate your claim. You won't.

And while you want to cast Inflation as cherry picked you push a spike in wages as significant while ignoring that your own provided evidence shows it is vanishing.

I never have claimed inflation is cherry-picked. I have shown that your focus is based on selecting the most negative data points while ignoring everything else. If you can show wages for lower income individuals has declined on a real basis, why have you yet to produce any citation? It shouldn't be that hard... after all, this is your argument. So support it.

No straw man. You have been trying to pretend like this inflation that has been going on for the better part of a year is going away any minute.. and it keeps not going away.

Nah. I have been quite clear from the beginning. If the U.S. gets 5% inflation (core CPI / PCE) for the next few years, it is most welcomed. For 2022, there will no longer be deflationary / disinflationary reference points in the various price indices. That's what the Fed has been referring to when they say the term transitory. I will not make any excuses for their inability to explain exactly what they mean when using this term.

 

[Kushinator]

So you are opposed to my picking a time frame by picking a time frame?

You are purposefully trying to focus on the volatility that's occurred during a pandemic. Explain why a reference to a pre-pandemic baseline is unsatisfactory.

Last year inflation was 7% while average wage gains were 4.7%, netting a LOSS of 2.3% for average worker.

Which is a cherry pick. It's a small sample size that is distorted from a global pandemic. If we take an approach that references a pre-pandemic baseline and measure it against other time frames, the results look very different. And that is the point.

And your own charts show any short term wage gains are being eaten by inflation

Which is a cherry pick.

but you stick your fingers in your ears and shout LALALALAALA! when people try to talk sense to you.

I refuse to let you push the faux news narrative. When it was shown that wage gains for this month were higher than inflation, various right-wing media outlets flat out lied and referenced previous months in a desperate effort to push their narrative. There was such contention in another thread.

You love to pretend that you are super expert of FRED charts

It does bother you that i am able to analyze and present data with ease.

You keep arguing average wages and then pretend you are arguing low income wages. But keep going with your delusions.

Again... present your evidence to back up the claims about low income wages. Attempting to weaponize potential buying power losses of poor people has been the crux of your argument. Not once have you attempted to substantiate your claims with actual data. Your claim is that inflation has eaten up the wages of low income earners. Yet you have not even attempted to provide any data.

 

[jonny5]

Do you actually realise how small a part of the debt problem is caused by "people not working to pay for things". It's the great consevative distraction from much bigger economic failings. Go look at the actual numbers instead of repesting the political rhetoric. Unemployment welfare could disappear tomorrow and barely dent the deficit. You want to start fixing the deficit you need to look at healthcare costs, SS management, bang for buck value of defense spending. Trouble is, those are not politically palatable targets for conservative govts. Hence the distractions being needed.

I'm not against sensibly pressuring people to be self reliant and productive, but I am against political rhetoric that is aimed at deliberately distracting people from the real problems.

People not paying for things is a big problem, about 3 trillion a year. Were up to 30 trillion. Not rhetoric. Fact. Healthcare alone is responsible for the entire deficit.

 

[jmotivator]

It is cherry picking. The baseline index points of reference for 2021 have been reflective early pandemic deflation / disinflation. You are purposefully highlighting a reversion to the mean while refusing to recognize the bigger picture. Yes... there has been some significant wage and price volatility during this global pandemic. However, when you observe the data across a longer time frame, wages have exceeded inflation by 1.6%.
If you have a point pertaining to lower wage earners... by all means. Provide the data to substantiate your claim. You won't.

I grow tired of your nonsense, so let's cut to the chase here. The YOY inflation rate in December over the last 5 years:

2017 - 2.11%
2018 - 1.91%
2019 - 2.29%
2020 - 1.36%
2021 - 7.04%

Where is this deflation you speak of?

 

[danielpalos]

Edit, sorry I meant 7%, 12% was a specific area.

White House briefing on this right now, says economy is awesome, we need to spend more, especially by giving people more free money through BBB.

Does anyone think that would increase or decrease inflation? I say increase.

When are we going to scale capacity with infrastructure upgrades?

 

[Kushinator]

I grow tired of your nonsense, so let's cut to the chase here. The YOY inflation rate in December over the last 5 years:

2017 - 2.11%
2018 - 1.91%
2019 - 2.29%
2020 - 1.36%
2021 - 7.04%

Where is this deflation you speak of?

There was a period of deflation / disinflation early on in the pandemic. Do you really want to deny this fact?

The red line depicts 2% CPI growth. How can the CPI (blue line) fall beneath the red line if what i have stated is untrue?

Once again, you attempt to post in a deceptive manner, by using annual data to hide from the deflationary / disinflationary period during the early stages of the pandemic, while simultaneously omitting the veracity of my statement (disinflation).

Notice how you (once again) didn't post any data pertaining to wages and salary of the lower income demographic. Typical....

 

[highroller]

Booming economy is a bad thing to republicans. More at 11

 

[Kushinator]

Booming economy is a bad thing to republicans. More at 11

So much that they will now clutch costume pearls in the name of... the poor.