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Indications Trump's re-election odds are "tanking"

Xelor

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According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
  • When you think of Donald Trump do you like or dislike him personally?
    • Like him personally 26%
      Dislike him personally 58%
      Unsure / Don't Know 15%

      Xelor Comment:
      It's quite surprising to me that the "unsure" rate is as close as it is to the "like him" rate.
  • If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you...?
    • Definitely vote for Trump 22%
      Probably vote for Trump 11%
      Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 11%
      Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 33%
      I will vote for an Independent or Other Candidate 11%
      Not Sure / Other 13%

      Xelor Comment:
      Trump's starting with a full 10% deficit comparing the "definitely" and "probably" responses for him vs. an generic Democratic candidate.

      That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.
  • Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group - or if you've never heard of them.
    • Barack Obama 59%
      Joe Biden 54%
      Bernie Sanders 49%
      James Mattis 40%
      Mike Pence 39%
      Hillary Clinton 38%
      Donald Trump 37%
      Robert Mueller 36%

      Xelor Comment:
      I don't know what the margin of error is for the poll, but I know that Barry, Bernie and Joe fall outside of it, Jim may fall outside of it, the other above shown persons are in a "dead heat" with trump as goes favorability. Also, even though Trump isn't the worst on favorability, he is the worst on unfavorability (page 37). Interestingly, Bob has roughly equal rates on favorability and unfavorability, whereas there's a huge chasm between Trump's two rates on those two qualities. The Trump negative rating's prodigious primacy over his positive rating portends that profoundly puissant and persistent be the polity's preponderant pique with and misprision for him.
  • Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
    • Trump should give in 58%
      Should not give in 42%

      Xelor Comment:
      Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.

      Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.

The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1



Notes:
  • General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
  • I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
  1. That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.
 

DH Kirkwood

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My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?
 

ttwtt78640

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One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?
 

jnug

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Trump is circling a drain of his own making. I would ask us to remember when the TrumpWorld of "governance" started lurching to a halt. It started lurching to a halt the very second we started hearing that Trump felt that he had the wherewithal to lose the guardrails. From that very second forward it all started falling apart. He now owns another shutdown, third in one year. He has a completely frozen administration seeded with Actings and Idiots. You can decide which is worse.

Everybody is leaving and smacking Donald on the way out the door. Even Kelly is joining in the Trump abuse.

Internationally, everybody other than the autocrats Trump panders to have thrown in the towel on Donald and the Country is on its way to throwing in the towel on him. His loyal base won't get him more than a landslide against in the next election.
 

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One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?

Hillary is no national candidate for the Executive, proven now in two separate Presidential elections.

Trump's greatest deficit in a 2020 campaign is Trump himself. It has taken him all of two years to hit most of the country with the big pie in the face. Trump did not have to run against the reality of Trump in 2016. I don't see a way for him to overcome that in 2020.
 

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According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
  • When you think of Donald Trump do you like or dislike him personally?
    • Like him personally 26%
      Dislike him personally 58%
      Unsure / Don't Know 15%

      Xelor Comment:
      It's quite surprising to me that the "unsure" rate is as close as it is to the "like him" rate.
  • If Donald Trump runs for reelection in 2020 as the Republican candidate, will you...?
    • Definitely vote for Trump 22%
      Probably vote for Trump 11%
      Probably vote for the Democratic candidate 11%
      Definitely vote for the Democratic candidate 33%
      I will vote for an Independent or Other Candidate 11%
      Not Sure / Other 13%

      Xelor Comment:
      Trump's starting with a full 10% deficit comparing the "definitely" and "probably" responses for him vs. an generic Democratic candidate.

      That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.
  • Now we will show you some names and groups. Please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of that person or group - or if you've never heard of them.
    • Barack Obama 59%
      Joe Biden 54%
      Bernie Sanders 49%
      James Mattis 40%
      Mike Pence 39%
      Hillary Clinton 38%
      Donald Trump 37%
      Robert Mueller 36%

      Xelor Comment:
      I don't know what the margin of error is for the poll, but I know that Barry, Bernie and Joe fall outside of it, Jim may fall outside of it, the other above shown persons are in a "dead heat" with trump as goes favorability. Also, even though Trump isn't the worst on favorability, he is the worst on unfavorability (page 37). Interestingly, Bob has roughly equal rates on favorability and unfavorability, whereas there's a huge chasm between Trump's two rates on those two qualities. The Trump negative rating's prodigious primacy over his positive rating portends that profoundly puissant and persistent be the polity's preponderant pique with and misprision for him.
  • Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
    • Trump should give in 58%
      Should not give in 42%

      Xelor Comment:
      Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.

      Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.

The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1



Notes:
  • General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
  • I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
  1. That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.

It’s all according to who they ask those questions, some collage full of liberals?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Xelor

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My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?

FWIW, the OP's first link goes directly to a PDF document depicting the topline results from the poll. (Crosstab information is a separate link.) Attached below is the age data you requested. The first page of the topline report indicates the following as goes the data collection approach:
This survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.​

Based on that, I'd say the nobody responded as a result of having been called and asked the poll questions.
 

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Xelor

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It’s all according to who they ask those questions, some collage full of liberals?

You don't need to ask me. That's why I provided you, in my OP, with a link to the poll topline and the crosstab. You can do your own analysis of the data. The CAPS has fully exposed its data.
 

Xelor

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One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?

Red:
What? From whence did you get "the any demorat [sic] will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data" proposition/conclusion?
 

Mycroft

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FWIW, the OP's first link goes directly to a PDF document depicting the topline results from the poll. (Crosstab information is a separate link.) Attached below is the age data you requested. The first page of the topline report indicates the following as goes the data collection approach:
This survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.​

Based on that, I'd say the nobody responded as a result of having been called and asked the poll questions.

Thanks for posting this. Saved me the time to get it.

Here is the latest Gallup Party Affiliation numbers:

Dem - 32%
Rep - 26%
Ind - 39%

So...that poll oversampled Reps and Dems and grossly undersampled Ind.

Add to that the inherent deficiencies of an online poll and...

POLL REJECTED!!
 

Captain Adverse

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My game console, which I probably shouldn't be using to post on this board, does not like the link. You wouldn't by chance know the average ages of people sampled, would you? Or whether or not this poll neglected cell-phones?

Well here are the metrics on the poll:

This survey was conducted online within the United States from December 24-25, 2018 among 1,473 registered voters by The Harris Poll.
https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_December2018_RVs_Topline.pdf

Typical online polling is random from people willing to participate. I have seen many online polls popping up over the years and have refused to participate in any. I have also received polls in the mail, which I have refused to participate in.

IMO most people who participate in such polls have an axe to grind.

I would like to note that according to the poll numbers 32% of the respondents were Republicans and 37% were Democrats. Seems like the numbers reflect Republicans still support him, and Democrats don't. The different seems to be independents who are most likely being swayed by the constant MSN attack propaganda. :shrug:
 

jnug

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Well here are the metrics on the poll:

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_December2018_RVs_Topline.pdf

Typical online polling is random from people willing to participate. I have seen many online polls popping up over the years and have refused to participate in any. I have also received polls in the mail, which I have refused to participate in.

IMO most people who participate in such polls have an axe to grind.

I would like to note that according to the poll numbers 32% of the respondents were Republicans and 39% were Democrats. Seems like the numbers reflect Republicans still support him, and Democrats don't. The different seems to be independents who are most likely being swayed by the constant MSN attack propaganda. :shrug:

Independents if being swayed are being swayed away from Donald by Donald himself. There are not that many Americans that are still wearing the Trump Rose colored glasses, available for $19.95 under the Ivanka Line anywhere utter crap is sold.
 

Captain Adverse

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Independents if being swayed are being swayed away from Donald by Donald himself. There are not that many Americans that are still wearing the Trump Rose colored glasses, available for $19.95 under the Ivanka Line anywhere utter crap is sold.

Well, to be fair, I am on record as admitting repeatedly that Twitter is not Trump's friend, and he would have been better served staying off it. It only adds meat to the MSN feeding frenzy.

But he is a 70+ year old "populist" and doesn't seem to understand the social dynamics have changed (IMHO) thanks to the Progressive-Left's 30+ years domination of American Education. :coffeepap:
 
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ttwtt78640

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Red:
What? From whence did you get "the any demorat [sic] will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data" proposition/conclusion?

This was fairly close:

That's astounding! Folks who don't even know who the Dem candidate will be, yet, extrapolating the poll's results to the population at large, one must infer that 44% of voters are likely, today, to vote for whoever be the Dem. That implies that a Dem whose name such voters have never heard before would likely obtain (not figuring in the poll's margin of error) between 33% and 44% of the vote.

I guess that I confused the issue by pointing out that the next POTUS election will be held in 2020 and the polling data presneted was "as of today". Trump won the 2016 election with only 46% of the popular vote and Clinton lost that election with 48% of the popualr vote.

Assuming that Trump is much less popular now (and will remain so in 2020), even if Hillary does no better (than her 48% in 2016), then Hillary (with minor adjustments to her campaigning geography) should easily be able to beat Trump. After all, it took Reagan three tries to become the oldest person ever elected president.
 

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Well, to be fair, I am on record as admitting repeatedly that Twitter is not Trump's friend, and he would have been better served staying off it. It only adds meat to the MSN feeding frenzy.

But he is a 70+ year old "populist" and doesn't seem to understand the social dynamics have changed (IMHO) thanks to the Progressive-Left's 30+ years domination of American Education. :coffeepap:

Donald's problems fall into three major categories IMO. Overarching all of that is the whole Russia investigation. But that investigation will likely get buckets or Trumpets tossed in jail but won't likely get Donald Impeached AND Removed.

The three buckets of issues that really hurt him in a re-election bid are:
- His lack of communication skills including his use of twitter. He insists on campaigning 100% of the time and runs his Executive office 0% of the time. Most recent example of disregarding the responsibilities of his Executive office for campaigning, the disgusting display of the Iraq troop visit. How in God's name do you screw up a holiday troop visit in the field? Ask Donald. He knows all about it.
- His utter incompetence in the job and the incompetence of those that have been left standing since Trump decided that he could remove the guardrails
- The massive corruption of this administration, beyond anything we have seen in the modern era...way beyond it....from Trump's emoluments issues through the missing $40M from his inauguration through to the most corrupt bunch of cabinet heads ever assembled by anybody!

And then there is the mountain of issues Trump will face for the next two years with a Dem run Congress which will pick him apart like a Thanksgiving turkey mainly over issues of Donald's own creation built out of his own corrupt and criminal composition.
 

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One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?

When you speak of odds, you speak of betting odds.

A month prior to Nov 2016, Trump was +600. This with two candidates. Today Trump's odds are +150, against the field. Meaning that to win a hundred you have to put up 150.

Donald Trump +150
Kamala Harris +1000
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Bernie Sanders +1200
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +2000

Mike Pence +2000
Cory Booker +2000
Kirsten Gillibrand +3000
Oprah Winfrey +3000
Michelle Obama +3300

Keep in mind that US citizens cannot technically bet on US politics, so these are mostly overseas thoughts.

The bottom line though is Trump is favored 8-1 over any Democrat candidate.

I think these Trump is done opinions are wishful thinking. To win the Dems have to do better than Harris, Beto, Bernie, Biden, Warren. I don't see that candidate waiting in the wings. Hillary BTW is not even in the top 10 at +6600. Tied with Hickenlooper and Zuckerberg.
 
Last edited:

Perotista

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According to Harvard's Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) and pollster Harris' December 2018 poll results, Americans responded as noted to the following questions:
  • Do you think Donald Trump should give in and withdraw his demand for 5 billion for the border security?
    • Trump should give in 58%
      Should not give in 42%

      Xelor Comment:
      Trump isn't the giving-in sort. I hazard that if he doesn't give in, he'll exacerbate the above noted metrics that augur poorly for his re-election prospects.

      Asked whether the Dems should compromise, respondents were split 51% to 49% on whether they should or should not. My personal stance on that is that Dems compromise in any number of ways so long as none of those ways includes appropriating money for a southern border wall/fence.

The poll has other interesting questions and responses. Read it for yourself, but please keep in mind this thread's discussion topic is about the noted poll questions, responses to them and the implications of those responses. Responses of any sort should be made based on the assumption that the poll is representationally faithful of the US voting population. (That proviso is simply to avoid foiks having to bog down in methodological and statistics analysis.)1



Notes:
  • General info, crosstabs, and other CAPS/Harris polls here.
  • I have not calculated the std. dev and MoE for the poll. For my comments above, I've assumed the MoE is somewhere between (inclusive) ±3% to ±5% because that's typical.
  1. That said, if you want to rail about the poll itself and its intrinsic validity, please have the decency to support your remarks to that effect with specific claims based on the poll's stated methodology and data collected for the noted poll questions.

Here's another poll and questions. Question 71. Run for Reelection, Do you want Donald Trump to run for re-election in 2020? All Adults, 34% yes, 52% no. But more important, at least to me is independents. Naturally, Democrats will say no, Republicans yes. Independents state 29% yes, 49% no.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/32i3vgsdj6/econTabReport.pdf

Considering Trump is now president because of the independent vote, he won independents 46-42 over Hillary Clinton with 12% voting third party. I don't think there is no way if Trump ran again to repeat that feat. Fact is independents voted for Trump only because they disliked Hillary Clinton more than they disliked Trump. On election day 57% of all independents had an unfavorable/negative view of Trump, 70% had that same unfavorable/negative view of Clinton. Hence Trump's four point win along with 12% voting third party against both Clinton and Trump. Questions 10 and 11.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf

2020, unless the democrats nominate another candidate as disliked by America as a whole and independents in particular as Hillary Clinton was, they're home free. I don't see how Trump could win. The Democrats are still the larger party, Republicans must win independents or lose the election. Right now as shown by the congressional midterms, independents don't like Trump. Only 42% of independents voted for Hillary in 2016, 54% of independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018.

In short 2020 presidential election is for the Democrats to lose, but so too was the 2016 election. All the Democrats have to do is nominate a candidate that is acceptable to most Americans, especially independents in 2020 which Hillary wasn't in 2016.
 

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When you speak of odds, you speak of betting odds.

A month prior to Nov 2016, Trump was +600. This with two candidates. Today Trump's odds are +150, against the field. Meaning that to win a hundred you have to put up 150.

Donald Trump +150
Kamala Harris +1000
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Bernie Sanders +1200
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +2000

Mike Pence +2000
Cory Booker +2000
Kirsten Gillibrand +3000
Oprah Winfrey +3000
Michelle Obama +3300

Keep in mind that US citizens cannot technically bet on US politics, so these are mostly overseas thoughts.

The bottom line though is Trump is favored 8-1 over any Democrat candidate.

I think these Trump is done opinions are wishful thinking. To win the Dems have to do better than Harris, Beto, Bernie, Biden, Warren. I don't see that candidate waiting in the wings. Hillary BTW is not even in the top 10 at +6600. Tied with Hickenlooper and Zuckerberg.


Sorry, my odds analysis is backward. To win 150 you put up 100.
 

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When you speak of odds, you speak of betting odds.

A month prior to Nov 2016, Trump was +600. This with two candidates. Today Trump's odds are +150, against the field. Meaning that to win a hundred you have to put up 150.

Donald Trump +150
Kamala Harris +1000
Beto O’Rourke +1000
Bernie Sanders +1200
Joe Biden +1400
Elizabeth Warren +2000

Mike Pence +2000
Cory Booker +2000
Kirsten Gillibrand +3000
Oprah Winfrey +3000
Michelle Obama +3300

Keep in mind that US citizens cannot technically bet on US politics, so these are mostly overseas thoughts.

The bottom line though is Trump is favored 8-1 over any Democrat candidate.

I think these Trump is done opinions are wishful thinking. To win the Dems have to do better than Harris, Beto, Bernie, Biden, Warren. I don't see that candidate waiting in the wings. Hillary BTW is not even in the top 10 at +6600. Tied with Hickenlooper and Zuckerberg.

Betting odds are worse than polls. Early betting odds are set to move the money one way or the other. The entire odds setting/betting industry is based on not letting too much money get onto one side of the ledger. The best outcome any sports book ever had was a tie to the betting line!
 

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Donald's problems fall into three major categories IMO. The three buckets of issues that really hurt him in a re-election bid are:..

- His lack of communication skills including his use of twitter. He insists on campaigning 100% of the time and runs his Executive office 0% of the time. Most recent example of disregarding the responsibilities of his Executive office for campaigning, the disgusting display of the Iraq troop visit. How in God's name do you screw up a holiday troop visit in the field? Ask Donald. He knows all about it.
- His utter incompetence in the job and the incompetence of those that have been left standing since Trump decided that he could remove the guardrails
- The massive corruption of this administration, beyond anything we have seen in the modern era...way beyond it....from Trump's emoluments issues through the missing $40M from his inauguration through to the most corrupt bunch of cabinet heads ever assembled by anybody!

And then there is the mountain of issues Trump will face for the next two years with a Dem run Congress which will pick him apart like a Thanksgiving turkey mainly over issues of Donald's own creation built out of his own corrupt and criminal composition.[/QUOTE]

Well let me respond one point at a time.

- His lack of communication skills including his use of twitter. He insists on campaigning 100% of the time and runs his Executive office 0% of the time. Most recent example of disregarding the responsibilities of his Executive office for campaigning, the disgusting display of the Iraq troop visit.

1. I've already addressed his Twitter problem. However, I agree with you on the constant campaigning. Yet I understand it based on how he thinks. As stated, he is a populist of the old school. The best examples would be Huey (Kingfish) Long, and perhaps John Lindsay (Mayor of NYC 1966 -1973). He is not supported by the establishment so he goes directly to the people for reinforcement. His constant "campaign stops" while a seated President are his way of countering Media negativity, being revitalized by the apparently strong "grass roots" support. His problem (like many other people Left and Right who seek echo chamber affirmation) he is limiting this to only those areas when he KNOWS people agree with him.

- His utter incompetence in the job and the incompetence of those that have been left standing since Trump decided that he could remove the guardrails.

2. He was not elected to be another highly polished political insider. This is something that I think people like yourself fail to understand. It was the fact that he is NOT a member of the political elite that go him so much grass roots support. People (including myself) were tired of "Out with the old boss, in with the new boss, same as the old boss" just from different Party label. Many of us have wanted a "bull in the china shop" change, something not new (remember Ross Perot?) to shake up the establishment and get some real change done. We expected "incompetence" because he was not a member of the "swamp" of competent politicians with years of pulling the wool over our eyes and only giving us all more of the same tax and spend regardless of Party in power politics. What most of us failed to expect what the psychic shock leading to TDS from those who had their world views destroyed by the election results coupled with "Establishment" control over the MSM leading to the "resist by any means necessary" counter-reaction.

- The massive corruption of this administration, beyond anything we have seen in the modern era...way beyond it....from Trump's emoluments issues through the missing $40M from his inauguration through to the most corrupt bunch of cabinet heads ever assembled by anybody!

3. There is no "massive corruption." This is a complete exaggeration on your part. It is based wholly in the TDS reaction fostered by the establishment's control over the MSN. The Mueller investigation promulgated (IMHO) by the "Insurance Policy" Strzok and Co. were planning has created this miasma of criminality. Yes, Manafort (who served a couple of months as campaign manager) was found to have launder money years prior to his service. Yes, Cohen was also found to be a corrupt lawyer involved in Taxi medallion fraud of his own businesses. I am sure that if Trump's businesses are subject to scrutiny, there will be some shenanigans discovered. NONE of this has anything to do with his election and service in office.

I am not going to elaborate on any of the Flynn, Papadopoulos, et. al. issues because I have done so ad nauseam in other threads.

I will say that Trump's problems stem mostly from his old school ways of thinking that new school graduates like yourself simply don't agree with. It's all in how one looks at it. (Forgive me for an short-cuts...I am going to be late for work ;) )
 

Xelor

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Well here are the metrics on the poll:

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/HHP_December2018_RVs_Topline.pdf

Typical online polling is random from people willing to participate. I have seen many online polls popping up over the years and have refused to participate in any. I have also received polls in the mail, which I have refused to participate in.

IMO most people who participate in such polls have an axe to grind.

I would like to note that according to the poll numbers 32% of the respondents were Republicans and 37% were Democrats. Seems like the numbers reflect Republicans still support him, and Democrats don't. The different seems to be independents who are most likely being swayed by the constant MSN attack propaganda. :shrug:

Red:
Well, of course, Republicans, more so than Dems, support Trump. As for how GOP-ers and Dems, respectively (proportionately and raw count) answered each question, you will find that in the crosstab. A link to the crosstab is in the OP.
 

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Thanks for posting this. Saved me the time to get it.

Here is the latest Gallup Party Affiliation numbers:

Dem - 32%
Rep - 26%
Ind - 39%

So...that poll oversampled Reps and Dems and grossly undersampled Ind.

Add to that the inherent deficiencies of an online poll and...

POLL REJECTED!!

Yeah, fake poll, I think the Easter Bunny is actually polling ahead of the pack, because that's what makes me feel good.
 

Deuce

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One must remember that Trump's odds of winning in 2016 were said to be slim to none based on polls. Based on the any demorat will (surely?) win in 2020 polling data - why not run Hillary again?

The night before the election based on final polling it was like 80/20.
The vote percentages were also practically dead on matching the polls.
 

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Well let me respond one point at a time.

1. I've already addressed his Twitter problem. However, I agree with you on the constant campaigning. Yet I understand it based on how he thinks. ...
Red:
I think everyone understand why he is a non-stop campaigner.

The thing he thinks that moves him to campaign all the time is this: "The thing I do best is marketing, specifically marketing myself. After all, all the 'jewels in the Trump crown' upon which I built my notoriety/infamy are businesses that license my name and that someone else actually runs. Accordingly, I'm going to play to my strength, selling myself and my image, because I am way out of my depth when it comes to public policy making and public policy-based politicking, both domestic and international."

When pressed on policy, Trump does what many people on DP, Twitter, and other social media sites do: prattle, levy ad hominem attacks of every sort, "bob and weave," deflect, flat-out misrepresent the truth, oversimplify, and inarticulately, ambiguously and/or vaguely express an idea that leaves lots of room for equivocating whenever they're pressed on it. And when all else fails, don't answer the questions asked and utter instead a full-on non-sequitur remark.



2. He was not elected to be another highly polished political insider. This is something that I think people like yourself fail to understand. ...
Blue:
Be that as it may, he declared himself as being polished, well-informed, etc. with all his "I know more than..." and "Nobody knows more than I do about..." and "I have the best words," etc., etc., etc. And frankly, were his remarks and ideas those of someone who truly all those things, there'd be little to say other than "he's not humble, but he's also every bit as smart, articulate, deep thinking, etc. as he claims, so one can't really say he's bragging without portfolio." But he isn't even half as astute and capable as self-aggrandizing alleges.

Furthermore, there is literally no such thing as a billionaire who is in fact also a non-political-insider, and anyone who'd actually believe there is such a billionaire is naive as hell.
 

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Well, to be fair, I am on record as admitting repeatedly that Twitter is not Trump's friend, and he would have been better served staying off it. It only adds meat to the MSN feeding frenzy.

But he is a 70+ year old "populist" and doesn't seem to understand the social dynamics have changed (IMHO) thanks to the Progressive-Left's 30+ years domination of American Education. :coffeepap:

Red:
Twitter and tweeting isn't Trump's problem, nor is his doing so an inherently bad thing or bad idea/practice. I think it's great that he and any other public office holder shares his/their thoughts on Twitter (or some other social media platform).

With Trump, however, the issue is what he shares, not that he's sharing via Twitter. The detrimental element of Trump's Twitter use is that he tweets inane and reprehensible thoughts; thus he, on Twitter repeatedly, daily it seems, illustrates the aphorism "people thought he was a fool because he never said anything, and then he spoke and removed all doubt."
 
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