How do you think the SCOTUS decision re abortion will impact the midterms....the General?

[sanman]

This SCOTUS decision was likely to be announced before the mid-term elections anyway. The ‘leakers’ plan was likely to get the SCOTUS to change its decision, but IMHO it will not.

"likely" - are you the Supreme Court bench, or the leaker?

 

[Cope]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

Oh it definitely shifts the vote, however I don't know that it weighs more heavily for most people than the economy does, still.
I think it is going to depend on how it's messaged.
If it successfully gets messaged that it is simply the right decision regarding the Constitution and that will result in individual States being able to decide where to draw the line, if there is a line at all then I don't think it hurts too badly.

 

[Hypothetical]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

Honestly, it depends on 2 things imo: how well progressives sell that this is actually going to happen regardless of that being only a draft, and, whether SCOTUS actually decides in favor of this or not.

if they do, it depends on how hard conservative politicians support it, and where.

 

[Callen]

Just what the leaker hopes. It was a PLANNED event.

The decision is to be delivered in June....4 to 6 weeks is no reason to do such a controversial thing.

 

[Callen]

Honestly, it depends on 2 things imo: how well progressives sell that this is actually going to happen regardless of that being only a draft, and, whether SCOTUS actually decides in favor of this or not.

if they do, it depends on how hard conservative politicians support it, and where.

The decision was always going to be well in advance of the midterms

 

[ttwtt78640]

"likely" - are you the Supreme Court bench, or the leaker?

Are you? Believe it or not, but DP welcomes opinions - even yours.

 

[ataraxia]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

Dems getting the messaging right?

 

[Queen Margo]

The decision is to be delivered in June....4 to 6 weeks is no reason to do such a controversial thing.

Really? Look at the thread and post counts just on this site. It is all the talk!!!!

 

[Cosmik Debris]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

If it benefits anybody, it will benefit Dems. Polls show about 60% of Americans are against overturning R v. W.

 

[jamesrage]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

If the voters are single issue voters then sure all the abortionists will vote democrat in the midterms. Weird how libs accused me of being a single issue voter when I refuse to vote for anyone who anti-2nd amendment and or pro-illegal immigration. But I guess the tables are turned and all of a sudden its okay to be a single issue voter.

 

[Helix]

They have options other than just looking shocked.

 

[gbg3]

I think it will not end up being a big deal. I think the majority of Americans are okay with the idea of abortion in the first trimester. But after the first trimester, that comfort level begins to fall off dramatically. I think most states will enact laws about it which their population will be quite comfortable with and not much will change. For example, I think if a number of states were to follow Mississippi's lead (15 weeks), that would be quite an okay situation for many a voter. Some states will have very lenient abortion decisions and those will typically be very blue states and I'll have to refrain from saying how I think those blue voters will feel about that because I couldn't do it politely. And I think a few red states will be restrictive (like Texas) and it seems Texas is adjusting just fine. Many voters in a state like that will appreciate the restrictive abortion laws of their state and feel like it will be saving precious lives.
I think Dems are trying to say - OMG - all abortion will now be illegal - and I think that's just drama and hysteria.
I suspect Dems will really overplay this abortion issue and I think there is as much a chance they'll hurt themselves as help themselves - in doing what they so often do by misjudging and overplaying.
And I think Dems will misjudge how many "women" will be with them in the drama. I think there are PLENTY of women who aren't comfortable with the idea of abortion of a growing and moving baby - 2nd and 3rd trimester.

 

[itstony]

It will change the vote for many and the impact will be state by state. If there's a close race in a purple state it can and most likely will impact the results. It will make no difference in staunch red or blue states.

 

[Court Jester]

The mid terms will be decided based on the economy. And in this case runaway inflation.

 

[Callen]

I think it will not end up being a big deal. I think the majority of Americans are okay with the idea of abortion in the first trimester. But after the first trimester, that comfort level begins to fall off dramatically. I think most states will enact laws about it which their population will be quite comfortable with and not much will change. For example, I think if a number of states were to follow Mississippi's lead (15 weeks), that would be quite an okay situation for many a voter. Some states will have very lenient abortion decisions and those will typically be very blue states and I'll have to refrain from saying how I think those blue voters will feel about that because I couldn't do it politely. And I think a few red states will be restrictive (like Texas) and it seems Texas is adjusting just fine. Many voters in a state like that will appreciate the restrictive abortion laws of their state and feel like it will be saving precious lives.
I think Dems are trying to say - OMG - all abortion will now be illegal - and I think that's just drama and hysteria.
I suspect Dems will really overplay this abortion issue and I think there is as much a chance they'll hurt themselves as help themselves - in doing what they so often do by misjudging and overplaying.
And I think Dems will misjudge how many "women" will be with them in the drama. I think there are PLENTY of women who aren't comfortable with the idea of abortion of a growing and moving baby - 2nd and 3rd trimester.

First off I agree most women will not be supportive of abortions beyond 20 or so weeks but that isn't the big issue the big issue is the banning of even 1st trimester abortions. This will not matter much in bright blue and ruby red States but it will very much matter in swing States and swing districts. Women will very much care about access to abortion in their own communities.....not so much about it being banned nationally. As it stands right now some 30 States have laws on the books that outright bans abortion in all cases as soon as RvW is overturned. Anyone who thinks the majority of women in States like Michigan are going to say...oh OK they are very much mistaken.

 

[gbg3]

First off I agree most women will not be supportive of abortions beyond 20 or so weeks but that isn't the big issue the big issue is the banning of even 1st trimester abortions. This will not matter much in bright blue and ruby red States but it will very much matter in swing States and swing districts. Women will very much care about access to abortion in their own communities.....not so much about it being banned nationally. As it stands right now some 30 States have laws on the books that outright bans abortion in all cases as soon as RvW is overturned. Anyone who thinks the majority of women in States like Michigan are going to say...oh OK they are very much mistaken.

I think those 30 states will soon take whatever action they feel is appropriate for their citizens. If the draft correctly reflects the final decision, it will become the job of the individual states to act on behalf of their state. They won't be "stuck" with laws on the books which didn't matter with Roe in place. Once it becomes the state responsibility, if it does, they'll act on behalf of their state. Simple as that.

 

[Callen]

I think those 30 states will soon take whatever action they feel is appropriate for their citizens. If the draft correctly reflects the final decision, it will become the job of the individual states to act on behalf of their state. They won't be "stuck" with laws on the books which didn't matter with Roe in place. Once it becomes the state responsibility, if it does, they'll act on behalf of their state. Simple as that.

I don't think that is true. Thirteen States have current laws on the books totally banning abortion that are triggered the minute RvW is overturned. Twenty plus other States have laws on the books which limit/ban abortions to varying degrees in the event RvW is overturned. They have already acted on behalf of their State and new legislation would have to be introduced to overturned the existing "trigger" laws. The Govenor of MI has already initiated legal action to block the MI trigger law.

The information is a little confusing but here are two articles.

These States Are Set to Ban Abortion if Roe v. Wade Is Overturned

There is no federal law protecting abortion, so rolling back Roe would create a starker patchwork of legality and access across the country

time.com

With Roe v. Wade overturned, which states would restrict or protect abortion rights?

The Supreme Court overturned the decades-old precedent of Roe v. Wade, allowing states to determine abortion access.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Atreus21]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

Republicans say hardly at all. Democrats say massively. For myself, who knows. The issue is the holy grail of both sides, and there's six months yet to go.

 

[gbg3]

As it stands right now some 30 States have laws on the books that outright bans abortion in all cases as soon as RvW is overturned.

Oh, you said this and I figured it must be accurate.

Thirteen States have current laws on the books totally banning abortion that are triggered the minute RvW is overturned. Twenty plus other States have laws on the books which limit/ban abortions to varying degrees in the event RvW is overturned.

Then you said this, shortly thereafter.

I see we're discussing rapidly changing narratives, which make the conversation pretty useless.
Back to your OP, I gave my opinion in the first sentence of comment 37.

 

[Callen]

Oh, you said this and I figured it must be accurate.


Then you said this, shortly thereafter.

I see we're discussing rapidly changing narratives, which make the conversation pretty useless.
Back to your OP, I gave my opinion in the first sentence of comment 37.

I heard the number 30 used earlier today but agree these two articles have differing numbers. Varying numbers aside, I think the point is valid about a substantial number of States having laws already on the books to limit/ ban/ ristrict abortion the minute RvW is overturned and the fact remains new legislation to undo those laws would be required.

 

[uptower]

It might at least invite a larger turnout on the apathetic left, but I'm not overly optimistic.

The Dems should be able to capitalize on the ruling, bring out the base, go on speaking tours, and run on this issue. But they're too wimpy and shit at campaigning so they'll probably drop the ball on this one too. And no mistake the right have handed them an easy scalp on a silver platter. The idiots don't know what to do with it.

 

[Grandpappy]

It might at least invite a larger turnout on the apathetic left, but I'm not overly optimistic.

The Dems should be able to capitalize on the ruling, bring out the base, go on speaking tours, and run on this issue. But they're too wimpy and shit at campaigning so they'll probably drop the ball on this one too. And no mistake the right have handed them an easy scalp on a silver platter. The idiots don't know what to do with it.

There are more important issues than state control of abortion laws.

 

[Lloyd Christmas]

Lots of chatter on the other threads on the rightness/wrongness of the decision and arguments for/against abortion but not much on the political consequences. I am of the opinion that if....big if.... the Dems can nail the messaging on this it could shift the dynamics and make the midterms less of a bloodbath for the Dems. Maybe even result in the Dems holding on. I think that is especially true in the Senate where vulnerable Dems just became less vulnerable and some GOP Senate seats just got more vulnerable. I think it may play in down ticket too. This could be a huge get out the vote initiative......be interesting to watch.

There is so much subject matter to attack republicans on. All their Taliban laws, voter suppression laws, etc. They haven't done a damn thing for the non wealthy in so long. And block things most Americans want and need. They better hit them hard

 

[armycowboy]

Could help get out the Dem vote, but it's been a long time since abortion has motivated Dems to do anything so I'm not holding my breath.

They've taken it for granted for years. Maybe this will actually shake them up and get them motivated. Or maybe not.

 

[Buckeyes85]

There are more important issues than state control of abortion laws.

Quite an interesting comment given that the first things every republican candidate for any job have said for 40 years is that they are pro guns and anti abortion.

Given that this impending decision does not outlaw abortion, but merely punts it to the states, there will be no more important issue in the upcoming mid terms.