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Hillary lead down to a hair!

disneydude

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Yep. If Trump doesn't come out of his convention with at least a small lead....it is indicative of a disaster for him. Things will fluctuate again after the DNC.
 

Socrates1

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Yep. If Trump doesn't come out of his convention with at least a small lead....it is indicative of a disaster for him. Things will fluctuate again after the DNC.

Who would believe ANYTHING coming out of the democRATS convention ? :lamo
 

ajn678

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Romney only gained about a point after his convention. Trump has gotten much more than that already, so at least its an indication that he might do better than Romney. Still, we have a lot of time.
 

cpwill

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Romney only gained about a point after his convention. Trump has gotten much more than that already, so at least its an indication that he might do better than Romney. Still, we have a lot of time.

Trump started well below Romney, and is still well below Romney. His unfavorable are significantly higher than Romney's, and he has less room for growth than Romney.

That being said, one factor that may be present here that wasn't in 2012 is "shy Trump voters".
 

ajn678

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Trump started well below Romney, and is still well below Romney. His unfavorable are significantly higher than Romney's, and he has less room for growth than Romney.

That being said, one factor that may be present here that wasn't in 2012 is "shy Trump voters".

Yea but Obama was much more favored than Clinton as well. This is a competition of who hates who less.:doh
 

clownboy

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Yep. If Trump doesn't come out of his convention with at least a small lead....it is indicative of a disaster for him. Things will fluctuate again after the DNC.

That's the traditional metric. Btw, how have predictions based upon historicals been going for you this election season? :mrgreen:
 

Ikari

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Romney only gained about a point after his convention. Trump has gotten much more than that already, so at least its an indication that he might do better than Romney. Still, we have a lot of time.

There is a lot of time, and there is the DNC convention, Hillary will likely get a bump coming out of that too. And when this election cycle gets past the conventions and goes into full swing...damn, Trump is seriously going to need to up his game. He won't be playing in just the GOP sandbox any longer, and Hillary will focus down on him. Any further novice mistakes, like plagiarizing an Obama, will be seized upon and soundly thrashed.

I don't think he has zero chance, but it's going to be uphill all the way.
 

chuckiechan

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The DNC is going to have a hard time selling itself as the party to make beneficial changes to fix what's wrong. After all, they have had eight years to do it and have done nothing. Nothing new has occurred in Obama last term other than we managed to "lose" Turkey to the Islamists.

I just can't see what they can hang their hats on. Law and order? Free college? Forgiveness of college loans? Reparations to blacks? Obamacare? Amnesty? More "H" visas? Unionize Silicon Valley?

.
 

cpwill

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Yea but Obama was much more favored than Clinton as well. This is a competition of who hates who less.:doh

60% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, and he is upside down by 25 points.

56% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton, she is upside down by 18 points.


This was the most winnable election in a generation.



clownboy said:
That's the traditional metric. Btw, how have predictions based upon historicals been going for you this election season?

Well, Trump is a bit soft compared to historical wrap-ups of the nomination, but primary polling was (with one notable exception in the Democrat race) fairly solid.
 

cpwill

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There is a lot of time, and there is the DNC convention, Hillary will likely get a bump coming out of that too. And when this election cycle gets past the conventions and goes into full swing...damn, Trump is seriously going to need to up his game. He won't be playing in just the GOP sandbox any longer, and Hillary will focus down on him. Any further novice mistakes, like plagiarizing an Obama, will be seized upon and soundly thrashed.

Plagiarizing an Obama would be a net improvement on his performance. The last time Hillary offered him a great issue to pound away on, he started musing on how Saddam Hussein wasn't really that bad of a guy.
 

blaxshep

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Plagiarizing an Obama would be a net improvement on his performance. The last time Hillary offered him a great issue to pound away on, he started musing on how Saddam Hussein wasn't really that bad of a guy.

Not what he said, but he was right, if Saddam was still in Iraq we wouldn't be seeing ISIS. He would have wiped them out before they even got started.
 

cpwill

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Not what he said, but he was right, if Saddam was still in Iraq we wouldn't be seeing ISIS. He would have wiped them out before they even got started.

Saddam Hussein funded the origins of the group that became ISIL. He didn't target terrorists - he targeted anyone he distrusted, and their families, and their tribes, and their entire ethnicities, groups which sometimes included terrorist groups. Trying to give Hussein credit for keeping terrorists down is like arguing that the KKK is an anti-crime organization.
 

DA60

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For the record, I despise both parties and both candidates for POTUS.

But it is almost TOTALLY irrelevant what the polls say now...barring a new major Clinton scandal, there is virtually no way Trump will win - even if he was not a buffoon (which he is).

The election is less then 4 months away and Obama desperately wants a Dem in the WH when he leaves to try and preserve his beloved Obamacare (and whatever else he cherishes that the Reps don't that he did).

So he is not going to do anything bold on the world stage - unless it is a slam dunk boost for him.

But the big reason is what most people vote for...the economy. And Obama indirectly controls the economy because he has stacked the Federal Reserve with Doves that owe him and will do whatever he tells them to do. ANd the Fed controls the economy - at least in the short/medium term.
If the economy drops a bit, he will just tell the Fed to lower interest rates or start another QE. Heck, all the Fed has to do is hint that they will do that and the markets will boom (which is primarily why the markets have been booming lately - along with Brexit relief and the great jobs report that was not nearly was great as most people think). Plus, Obama can just tell the BLS (which is under the Dept. of Labor) to wildly exaggerate a couple of jobs reports and just correct them later after the election to make things look rosy (and forget what Obamabots/government trained minions on here/off here tell you...he can do it relatively easily, imo).
And even if there was a recession...Obama can get the Fed to delay it until after November.
The bottom line is that the economy almost certainly will look good come POTUS choice time...which almost guarantees Clinton the election.

This was decided years ago...it was going to take an amazing Rep candidate (which Trump is DEFINITELY not) or a huge scandal on the part of the Dems for a Democrat not to occupy the whitehouse from 2017-2020. It's practically a done deal...now all that bitch Hillary has to do is shut up, do as little as possible and wait for the inevitable.

Barring a new, major scandal by Hillary (or a major medical problem) OR a major **** up by Obama that Clinton cannot distance herself from...she WILL be the next POTUS. Guaranteed.

Trump cannot win it...Clinton can only lose it.
 
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shrubnose

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Come back and tell us all about it after Trump gets his butt handed to him in November.

:lol:
 

Harshaw

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Skeptic Bob

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I can see the popular vote being fairly close. I'm certainly no expert but I find it unlikely Trump doesn't get trounced in the electoral votes.
 
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