- Joined
- Jan 10, 2015
- Messages
- 14,012
- Reaction score
- 3,439
- Location
- Southern Oregon
- Gender
- Male
- Political Leaning
- Conservative
Yep. If Trump doesn't come out of his convention with at least a small lead....it is indicative of a disaster for him. Things will fluctuate again after the DNC.
Romney only gained about a point after his convention. Trump has gotten much more than that already, so at least its an indication that he might do better than Romney. Still, we have a lot of time.
Trump started well below Romney, and is still well below Romney. His unfavorable are significantly higher than Romney's, and he has less room for growth than Romney.
That being said, one factor that may be present here that wasn't in 2012 is "shy Trump voters".
Yep. If Trump doesn't come out of his convention with at least a small lead....it is indicative of a disaster for him. Things will fluctuate again after the DNC.
Romney only gained about a point after his convention. Trump has gotten much more than that already, so at least its an indication that he might do better than Romney. Still, we have a lot of time.
Yea but Obama was much more favored than Clinton as well. This is a competition of who hates who less.:doh
clownboy said:That's the traditional metric. Btw, how have predictions based upon historicals been going for you this election season?
There is a lot of time, and there is the DNC convention, Hillary will likely get a bump coming out of that too. And when this election cycle gets past the conventions and goes into full swing...damn, Trump is seriously going to need to up his game. He won't be playing in just the GOP sandbox any longer, and Hillary will focus down on him. Any further novice mistakes, like plagiarizing an Obama, will be seized upon and soundly thrashed.
Plagiarizing an Obama would be a net improvement on his performance. The last time Hillary offered him a great issue to pound away on, he started musing on how Saddam Hussein wasn't really that bad of a guy.
That's the traditional metric. Btw, how have predictions based upon historicals been going for you this election season? :mrgreen:
Not what he said, but he was right, if Saddam was still in Iraq we wouldn't be seeing ISIS. He would have wiped them out before they even got started.
This was the most winnable election in a generation.