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Has any Conspiracy Theory ever turned out to be True? [W:499]

jimithyashford

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I recently heard someone deliver a simple challenge to a Conspiracy Theorist, a challenge that was not adequately answered, which made me wonder if the poor answer was simply a lacking of knowledge by that Conspiracy Theorist in particular, or if it was revealing something meaningful about the Conspiracy Theory approach in general.

Here is the question, and it is a very specific question, so please do read the criteria.

Has any Conspiracy Theory ever turned out to be true and vindicated in any meaningful way?

For a Conspiracy Theory to meet the challenge is must have the following traits:

It must be Predictive: That is to say that the theory must have been around and discussed PRIOR TO the general revelation or uncovering of the event the theory addresses. So Watergate is not a valid example as it was not "theorized" about prior to being revealed by journalistic processes.

It must be specific to meaningful degree: That is to say something very vague and general like "the government has stuff they don't want us to know about" doesn't count. Something more specific like "I think the government deliberately infected some US citizens to cause the Ebola scare to distract from other issues." would count, although extreme specificity regarding exact details is not required.

The Theory must regard something not generally known or suspected to be true: For example, "the government is testing experimental Weapons" would not count because although the details of particular weapons are secret, the idea that experimental weapons exist, and that they are generally kept secret until they are ready for deployment, is common knowledge and a fairly mundane claim. Meanwhile something like "HAARP is actually a government super weapon that can trigger earthquakes" would count, as that claim is not generally believed or known and would be fantastic in nature if true.

That's really pretty much it, the Theory must have predicted something, the thing it predicted must not have been mundane or commonly accepted, and the prediction must have had some reasonable level of specificity or meaningful information.


Has any Conspiracy Theory, by the above criteria, ever been vindicated?
 

TheGoverness

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Has any Conspiracy Theory, by the above criteria, ever been vindicated?

Hello, jimithyashford! Welcome to DP. :2wave:

To answer your question, I'd say from what I've seen I would no (especially when it comes to stuff like the 9/11 controlled demolition CT and the Sandy Hook hoax), but I don't know that for certain.
 

CMPancake

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There's actually a few conspiracy theories that turned out to be true. Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and MKULTRA are very real and documented by the CIA.
 

TheGoverness

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There's actually a few conspiracy theories that turned out to be true. Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and MKULTRA are very real and documented by the CIA.

Oh yeah, I remember MKULTRA. Didn't they destroy all the documents and files pertaining to the experiment?
 

Abbazorkzog

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There's actually a few conspiracy theories that turned out to be true. Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and MKULTRA are very real and documented by the CIA.

And that is where the intense hallucinogen LSD came from. In the 60's this series of events would have been categorized as "Alex Jones-scale" crazy if they had been talked about before the late 60's and early 70's, when it all occurred (and in the 80's, 90's and 00's when it slowly became [semi] public knowledge).
 

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There's actually a few conspiracy theories that turned out to be true. Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and MKULTRA are very real and documented by the CIA.

But how much of that was a confirmed conspiracy theory or just a horrible govt program found out by the public?
 

jimithyashford

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There's actually a few conspiracy theories that turned out to be true. Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and MKULTRA are very real and documented by the CIA.

So those exact examples were given by the person in the thread where I originally saw this, but as the person posing the question pointed out, neither of those were theorized about prior to being uncovered. Those are not predictions, they are, for lack of a better term, post dictions, so they would fail the challenge.
 

Pin dÁr

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I recently heard someone deliver a simple challenge to a Conspiracy Theorist, a challenge that was not adequately answered, which made me wonder if the poor answer was simply a lacking of knowledge by that Conspiracy Theorist in particular, or if it was revealing something meaningful about the Conspiracy Theory approach in general.

Here is the question, and it is a very specific question, so please do read the criteria.

Has any Conspiracy Theory ever turned out to be true and vindicated in any meaningful way?

For a Conspiracy Theory to meet the challenge is must have the following traits:

It must be Predictive: That is to say that the theory must have been around and discussed PRIOR TO the general revelation or uncovering of the event the theory addresses. So Watergate is not a valid example as it was not "theorized" about prior to being revealed by journalistic processes.

It must be specific to meaningful degree: That is to say something very vague and general like "the government has stuff they don't want us to know about" doesn't count. Something more specific like "I think the government deliberately infected some US citizens to cause the Ebola scare to distract from other issues." would count, although extreme specificity regarding exact details is not required.

The Theory must regard something not generally known or suspected to be true: For example, "the government is testing experimental Weapons" would not count because although the details of particular weapons are secret, the idea that experimental weapons exist, and that they are generally kept secret until they are ready for deployment, is common knowledge and a fairly mundane claim. Meanwhile something like "HAARP is actually a government super weapon that can trigger earthquakes" would count, as that claim is not generally believed or known and would be fantastic in nature if true.

That's really pretty much it, the Theory must have predicted something, the thing it predicted must not have been mundane or commonly accepted, and the prediction must have had some reasonable level of specificity or meaningful information.


Has any Conspiracy Theory, by the above criteria, ever been vindicated?

Why the hell must it be predictive? It's not science! Even 'science' can't do that a lot.

If tomorrow there is a story in the newspaper it isn't true because it is not predicted?

pleeeeaaassseeeee.

get real, will you?




AND you have not defined when it is "turned out to be true"

How do you measure it? When it is in a 'newspaper'? when it is on the telly? Or what?

Please define first what you mean with this. This is very very ambigious.
 
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ozeco41

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So those exact examples were given by the person in the thread where I originally saw this, but as the person posing the question pointed out, neither of those were theorized about prior to being uncovered. Those are not predictions, they are, for lack of a better term, post dictions, so they would fail the challenge.
Actually there is an ambiguity in the definition. It is between "theories" (lay person usage BTW) which turn out to be true and those which don't.

By the definition I prefer an alleged "theory" which trurns out to be true is not a Conspiracy Theory. By my preferred definition CTs are those which are false and are held by people who may believe them but the flaw lies in their reasoning process. So CD of the WTC Towers is by my definition a "Conspiracy Theory" because it is not true (lay person language) OR "There has never been a valid prima facie hypothesis in favour of CD" (The equivalent message framed in the language of the "Scientific Method")

So the definition of Conspiracy Theory is primarily a reflection on the limited knowledge, understanding and reasoning skills of a person supporting something that is not true for reasons related to their own skills deficiencies.

You may have noted that this demands a third category - those "issue of concern which are not yet resolved or proven either way".

If those count at CT by your measure go for it.

The only advice I offer - whatever definition - just be sure that if you are discusing the issue you make sure both sides of the discussion are using the same definition.

And I'll bet that - disagreement over definitions - is the cause of more problems than the original question. ;)
 

Captain Adverse

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There have been several, I'll list some of the ones in the USA:

1. The Mafia. Believe it or not, prior to the testimony of Joe Velachi, people thought the Mafia was a myth. In fact, J. Edgar Hoover refused to give credence to the existence of this crime organization right up until Velachi's evidence proved him wrong.

2. MK Ultra. Someone already mentioned this, and it is the most famous of the proven conspiracy theories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra

3. Operation Mockingbird: Between the 50's - 70's the CIA paid news organizations to publish propaganda. Exposed by the Church Committee in 1975. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

4. Operation Northwoods: Plans drafted by U.S. military leaders in the 60's to create public support for a war against Cuba by committing acts of terrorism in U.S. cities. Our "False Flag" option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods

5. COINTELPRO: A series of covert and frequently illegal projects conducted by the FBI between 1956 and 1971 investigating and disrupting dissident political organizations within the United States. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COINTELPRO
 
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Mark F

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There's actually a few conspiracy theories that turned out to be true. Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and MKULTRA are very real and documented by the CIA.

There have been several, I'll list some of the ones in the USA:

1. The Mafia. Believe it or not, prior to the testimony of Joe Velachi, people thought the Mafia was a myth. In fact, J. Edgar Hoover refused to give credence to the existence of this crime organization right up until Velachi's evidence proved him wrong.

2. MK Ultra. Someone already mentioned this, and it is the most famous of the proven conspiracy theories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra

3. Operation Mockingbird: Between the 50's - 70's the CIA paid news organizations to publish propaganda. Exposed by the Church Committee in 1975. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

4. Operation Northwoods: Plans drafted by U.S. military leaders in the 60's to create public support for a war against Cuba by committing acts of terrorism in U.S. cities. Our "False Flag" option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods

5. COINTELPRO: A series of covert and frequently illegal projects conducted by the FBI between 1956 and 1971 investigating and disrupting dissident political organizations within the United States. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COINTELPRO

Those are not things that started out as CT's that later turned out to be true.
 

Mark F

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But he's not biased.

lol

I'm not. Objectively, none of those examples started out as CT's which were later proven true. We've been through these same silly lists before. No one has ever been able to establish began as CT's. Rather, they were discovered through the normal process of proper investigation.
 

zyzygy

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Those are not things that started out as CT's that later turned out to be true.

You beat me to it. The hallmark of CT's is that they turn out not to be true.
 

Mark F

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You beat me to it. The hallmark of CT's is that they turn out not to be true.

CT's invariably originate from a false premise so they have nowhere to go.
 

Pin dÁr

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CT's invariably originate from a false premise so they have nowhere to go.

prove? None? Really?

well, at least he is not biased!


It's hilarious!
 

Tigerace117

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There have been several, I'll list some of the ones in the USA:

1. The Mafia. Believe it or not, prior to the testimony of Joe Velachi, people thought the Mafia was a myth. In fact, J. Edgar Hoover refused to give credence to the existence of this crime organization right up until Velachi's evidence proved him wrong.

2. MK Ultra. Someone already mentioned this, and it is the most famous of the proven conspiracy theories. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_MKUltra

3. Operation Mockingbird: Between the 50's - 70's the CIA paid news organizations to publish propaganda. Exposed by the Church Committee in 1975. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

4. Operation Northwoods: Plans drafted by U.S. military leaders in the 60's to create public support for a war against Cuba by committing acts of terrorism in U.S. cities. Our "False Flag" option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods

5. COINTELPRO: A series of covert and frequently illegal projects conducted by the FBI between 1956 and 1971 investigating and disrupting dissident political organizations within the United States. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COINTELPRO


Does Northwoods really count? It didn't actually happen, after all.
 

Mark F

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Does Northwoods really count? It didn't actually happen, after all.

No, Northwoods (nor any of the 16 other very similar and equally DOA proposals that were submitted at around the same time but CT's don't know about because they are not as easy to Google search) does not count on several levels.

Northwoods is kind of a personal favorite of mine. For one, it shows how little effort CT's put in to "research". But more importantly, CT's use a rejected plan as proof the government approves false flags :lamo You literally have to be a conspiracy theorist to not see the irony there.

PS

Anyone want to place odds on Pin actually demonstrating how any of the alleged examples of CT's that were proven true actually started out as CT's.

I pick zero (0). Zero % chance of that happening.
 

Tigerace117

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No, Northwoods (nor any of the 16 other very similar and equally DOA proposals that were submitted at around the same time but CT's don't know about because they are not as easy to Google search) does not count on several levels.

Northwoods is kind of a personal favorite of mine. For one, it shows how little effort CT's put in to "research". But more importantly, CT's use a rejected plan as proof the government approves false flags :lamo You literally have to be a conspiracy theorist to not see the irony there.

So the government rejects a secret conspiracy.....therefore everything is a secret conspiracy. Makes total sense. :roll:
 
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