Generic Ballot Polling Ahead of The Midterms 2022

[Perotista]

While MAGA are hoping and praying that inflation remains high through November, the polling actually doesn’t look like the bloodbath I was expecting given all the preemptive celebration.

View attachment 67392020

I’m not sure if the Rights Anti-Woman agenda is reflected in those polls showing Dems ahead, I would guess it is.

The Right just may find out how unpopular shoving their religion down the nations throat actually is.

They may pull a Democrat and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Our parties know how to do two things:

Piss off the country and cash checks

I’ve been keeping track of the leaked draft, abortion issues. I’ve said many times I think abortion has already been baked in. After 50 years of Roe, those pro-life have become Republicans and those pro-choice have become Democrats. Here’s the results so far.

2 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.5-42.5, Republican, 538 averages 45.2-42.8 Republican

9 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.4-43.2 Republican, 538 averages 45.4-42.8 Republican

16 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 46.8-43.3 Republican, 538 averages 45.5-43.0 Republican

21 May 2022 Generic congressional ballot, RCP averages 45.5-43.4 Republican, 538 averages 45.0-42.6 Republican

19-day difference, RCP Republicans -1.0, Democrats +0.9. 538 Republicans -0.2, Democrats -0.2.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

We haven’t seen any significant movement on President’s overall job performance since the leak either. I doubt you will. Whatever issue becomes hot for a while probably won’t make a difference. Rising prices tops the list of most important issues, everything else is secondary.

2 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.7% approve, 53.0% disapprove

9 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 42.3% approve, 52.9% disapprove

16 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.6% approve, 53.4% disapprove

21 May 2022 Biden’s overall job performance, 41.0% approve, 54.3% disapprove

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

19-day difference, approval -0.7, disapproval +1.4

Perhaps the best way to look at this is the number of competitive, switchable, at risk house seats between 1 May to 21 May.

1 May 29 Democratic seats, 10 Republican seats fell into the at-risk category

19 May 36 Democratic seats, 12 Republican seats. An increase of 7 seats for the Democrats over these past 3 weeks and an increase of 2 for the Republicans. If the Democrats hadn’t won the gerrymandering war, creating 10 more democratic leaning districts than the GOP was able to create Republican leaning districts. You might be looking at a red wave election instead of losses of 15-18 seats.

Conclusion, the leaked draft had no detrimental effect on the Republican Party’s chances of a good midterm election. That the abortion issue is baked in regardless of which side your on or how hot an issue it becomes. Inflation, rising prices, empty shelves in stores remains the number one, hottest issue. I don’t think any other issue will replace it unless we get into a hot war with Russia.

My best estimate using today’s numbers is a pickup of 15-18 seats in the house for the GOP. No red wave, but a lost of control of the house. Senate wise, I can see the Democrats gaining one seat, PA. I'd say as long as inflation is with us, it is the number one, most important issue voters, especially independends will base how they vote this November. Everything else is secondary to include the abortion issue and most likely the public 1-6 hearings. It's thinning to flat wallets vs. something else. Thinning to flat wallets will win everything. But not in the extent Republicans are expecting. I call that the Trump factor.

 

[Perotista]

While MAGA are hoping and praying that inflation remains high through November, the polling actually doesn’t look like the bloodbath I was expecting given all the preemptive celebration.

View attachment 67392020

I’m not sure if the Rights Anti-Woman agenda is reflected in those polls showing Dems ahead, I would guess it is.

The Right just may find out how unpopular shoving their religion down the nations throat actually is.

They may pull a Democrat and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Our parties know how to do two things:

Piss off the country and cash checks

I'd like to add this if you don't mind from a historical stand point.

I’ve been saying all along that the projected losses for this year’s midterms for the democrats make no historical sense when looking at Biden’s low approval numbers at around 40%. Hence, I put the history in writing. Here’s a list of presidents whose approval rating was around 40% for a midterm election. President, year, approval percentage, house seats lost, senate seats lost. Historical average for 4 presidents excluding Biden since his midterm hasn’t happened yet. Approval average, 39.25% house seats lost 48.5, senate seats lost 6.

Biden 2022 41% ?????? projected loss of 15-18 house seats, gain of 1 senate seat as of 21 May

Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats

Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats

G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats

Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats


I keep coming back to this as it has me frustrated, flabbergasted, astonished at the projected numbers for Biden and company. There’s no historical reference to place or compare this year’s numbers to. Fact is, they make no sense to me. A red wave should be in the offering. So far, it isn’t. Is it today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship? Is it Trump or something else I can’t get my head around? Or a combination of many things?

Or possibility more time is needed for the projections to catch up with Biden and company’s low approval numbers? Time seems to be a good answer. No candidates have been chosen yet; the primaries haven’t begun. Redistricting isn’t completed. Time could be an answer, then again, maybe not. Only time will tell. In the meanwhile, I’ll try to figure out why all of this bothers me so much. Truth be told, it’s not normal. Then again, we’re not living in normal times, are we?

 

[wist43]

"Voting rights" to Democrats means unaccountable chaos, i.e. widespread cheating.

I am surprised they haven't pushed something through though. They don't comply with the laws now, so just pass something, ignore it later, and have the media run interference and cover it up.

It worked in 2020.

 

[Checkerboard Strangler]

Yeah my post was tongue in cheek haha but it was quite convincing apparently.

Glad to see both you and Helix are fully wise to the song and dance of Joe Manchin

There IS NO reasoning with Manchin and Sinema any more than there was reasoning with Joe Lieberman or Zell Miller.

 

[Winston]

I think there is a good shot in PA....all that means is that Haris isn't required as a tie breaker ;(

Well, that’s if we keep the House too. (We could theoretically get bills to Biden)

Republicans aren’t interested in working with Dems only against them

 

[Perotista]

Well, that’s if we keep the House too. (We could theoretically get bills to Biden)

Republicans aren’t interested in working with Dems only against them

If one wants to be honest, in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship, it’s true, Republicans will automatically oppose any and all Democratic proposals. Now the reverse is also true, Democrats automatically oppose and and all Republican proposals also. No thoughts given to the merits of the proposal, just who proposed it. It’s republican automatic opposition during Biden, it was the democrat’s automatic opposition during Trump.

You can throw in republican automatic opposition to Obama too. G.W. Bush had his first six years with a Republican congress, but in his last 2 years, he did get some cooperation out of a Democratic congress. Not much and rare, but it did happen. That’s probably the dividing line between political eras of yore and today’s modern political era.

 

[Winston]

If one wants to be honest, in today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship, it’s true, Republicans will automatically oppose any and all Democratic proposals. Now the reverse is also true, Democrats automatically oppose and and all Republican proposals also. No thoughts given to the merits of the proposal, just who proposed it. It’s republican automatic opposition during Biden, it was the democrat’s automatic opposition during Trump.

You can throw in republican automatic opposition to Obama too. G.W. Bush had his first six years with a Republican congress, but in his last 2 years, he did get some cooperation out of a Democratic congress. Not much and rare, but it did happen. That’s probably the dividing line between political eras of yore and today’s modern political era.

The Republicans are more at fault though. They wouldn't even let Obama nominate a Supreme Court Justice. Say what you want about Democrats but, they would have never done what McConnel did.

 

[Perotista]

The Republicans are more at fault though. They wouldn't even let Obama nominate a Supreme Court Justice. Say what you want about Democrats but, they would have never done what McConnel did.

It was stupid politics for McConnell to not allow a floor vote. That for sure. McConnell had 54 Republican Senators, more than enough to defeat Garland’s nomination. Not allowing a floor vote, I suspect it was done for political revenge against Schumer who in 2007, a full year and a half before Bush’s term as president would end, Schumer stated in so many words that the Democrats wouldn’t allow a vote on any Bush nomination to the SCOTUS if an opening occurred. None did, but I would wager McConnell had a long memory. I would wager not allowing a floor vote on Garland was political payback for Schumer threatening not to allow one on any additional Bush nominations. Never mind no opening ever occurred. McConnell is one vengeful SOB. The senate has never been the same since Lott and Daschle retired as the senate leaders. Those two would work together and neither was the vengeful type.

In fact, they came to a power sharing agreement when the senate was tied 50-50 after the 2000 election. That could never happen today.

https://www.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/stories/01/05/senate.powershare/index.html

This shows how partisan and screwed up our politics have become.

 

[wist43]

Regardless of how many seats Dems lose, it won't matter.

The country is on autopilot toward fiscal and social collapse - the Republican leadership is committed to that goal, same as every Democrat.

The overt attacks on free speech will hit a speed bump, but the Ministry of Truth is just in temporary hiatus.

More terrorism, inflation, war, attacks on the family, attacks on innocent kids by the government school system, etc...

All of those things will continue until we finally collapse.

 

[Roadvirus]

If the Democrats don't motivate people to get to the polls, they'll lose. Failing to pass voting rights was a big error.

Improving their messaging and knocking off the cultural canceling crap would probably help them too.

 

[Helix]

Improving their messaging and knocking off the cultural canceling crap would probably help them too.

I agree about messaging.

 

[Winston]

I agree about messaging.

did you see how badly Fetterman beat the corporate approved candidate?

he won every single county.

time will tell how it will fair in the general. it's make or break time.

 

[Helix]

did you see how badly Fetterman beat the corporate approved candidate?

he won every single county.

time will tell how it will fair in the general. it's make or break time.

My vote will be against Republicans. That's most of what I can do.

 

[Winston]

My vote will be against Republicans. That's most of what I can do.

I'm scared mate.

Dems have historically dropped the ****ing ball in the mid terms. And the "normies" are all pissed off about gas prices. They just hate whoever is in power right now.

 

[Jay59]

I'd like to add this if you don't mind from a historical stand point.

I’ve been saying all along that the projected losses for this year’s midterms for the democrats make no historical sense when looking at Biden’s low approval numbers at around 40%. Hence, I put the history in writing. Here’s a list of presidents whose approval rating was around 40% for a midterm election. President, year, approval percentage, house seats lost, senate seats lost. Historical average for 4 presidents excluding Biden since his midterm hasn’t happened yet. Approval average, 39.25% house seats lost 48.5, senate seats lost 6.

Biden 2022 41% ?????? projected loss of 15-18 house seats, gain of 1 senate seat as of 21 May

Trump 2018 40% lost 44 house seats, 3 senate seats
Obama 2010 42% lost 63 house seats, 6 senate seats
G.W. Bush 2006 33% lost 33 house seats, 6 senate seats
Bill Clinton 1994 42% lost 54 house seats, 9 senate seats

I keep coming back to this as it has me frustrated, flabbergasted, astonished at the projected numbers for Biden and company. There’s no historical reference to place or compare this year’s numbers to. Fact is, they make no sense to me. A red wave should be in the offering. So far, it isn’t. Is it today’s modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship? Is it Trump or something else I can’t get my head around? Or a combination of many things?

Or possibility more time is needed for the projections to catch up with Biden and company’s low approval numbers? Time seems to be a good answer. No candidates have been chosen yet; the primaries haven’t begun. Redistricting isn’t completed. Time could be an answer, then again, maybe not. Only time will tell. In the meanwhile, I’ll try to figure out why all of this bothers me so much. Truth be told, it’s not normal. Then again, we’re not living in normal times, are we?

The spin cycle is going.

A red wave is in the offing, but the Senate map so much favors Democrats that they could escape with a tie. Republicans need a generic ballot of about +4% or higher to expect to win the Senate. It's currently at about +2%. If it drops to even then expect Republicans to lose Senate seats. That said, this is the highest the Democrats have been in months and the economic outlook is bleak and includes the R word.

My vote will be against Republicans. That's most of what I can do.

I am sorry to hear that. In my experience, almost no issue is wholly owned by one party. There is usually something worth pursuing even for a Republican in California or a Democrat in Mississippi.

 

[Helix]

I'm scared mate.

Dems have historically dropped the ****ing ball in the mid terms. And the "normies" are all pissed off about gas prices. They just hate whoever is in power right now.

Yep. It's no time to coast.

 

[Helix]

The spin cycle is going.

A red wave is in the offing, but the Senate map so much favors Democrats that they could escape with a tie. Republicans need a generic ballot of about +4% or higher to expect to win the Senate. It's currently at about +2%. If it drops to even then expect Republicans to lose Senate seats. That said, this is the highest the Democrats have been in months and the economic outlook is bleak and includes the R word.


I am sorry to hear that. In my experience, almost no issue is wholly owned by one party. There is usually something worth pursuing even for a Republican in California or a Democrat in Mississippi.

The Republican party has gone insane.

 

[Perotista]

The spin cycle is going.

A red wave is in the offing, but the Senate map so much favors Democrats that they could escape with a tie. Republicans need a generic ballot of about +4% or higher to expect to win the Senate. It's currently at about +2%. If it drops to even then expect Republicans to lose Senate seats. That said, this is the highest the Democrats have been in months and the economic outlook is bleak and includes the R word.


I am sorry to hear that. In my experience, almost no issue is wholly owned by one party. There is usually something worth pursuing even for a Republican in California or a Democrat in Mississippi.

Ah, the senate map. There’re five states the pundits rate a pure tossup. Democratic held Arizona, Nevada and Georgia along with Republican held Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two states with leans, Democratic held New Hampshire leans Democratic and Republican held North Carolina leans Republican. All the rest look safe or solid to the party that now holds them. There won’t be any big changes in the senate’s make up.

New Hampshire, D Hassan has a 4-point lead in the polls. She’s been elected twice so far; I think she will win again this time.

North Carolina, it’s an open seat, R Burr retired. R Budd which just won his primary has a 7.5-point lead over D Beasley. North Carolina will stay Republican. Now that brings us to the tossups.

Arizona, I’d give D Kelly, the incumbent the edge today. I don’t think Arizona will change hands.

Georgia, D Warnock, incumbent, been through all of this before vs. R Walker the rookie. Warnock has only a 0.5-point lead according to RCP. D Warnock incumbent advantage along with R Walker being about as inexperienced as one can be in politics, I don’t see Georgia going red. Today, Georgia stays blue.

Nevada, D Cortez-Masto, She has an average of a 2.5 point lead in two April polls along with being the incumbent. Nevada has been pretty blue lately. She’ll win over R Laxalt.

Pennsylvania, open seat, R Toomey retired. D Fetterman over whoever wins the GOP nomination. Fetterman is unique, he’ll win giving the Democrats a gain in PA.

Wisconsin, R Johnson who isn’t like much by Wisconsinites. Outside of that, no information on this senate race although the pundit’s rate it a tossup. I’ll wait before any predictions here. Lack of data, information.

No matter how Wisconsin goes, the Democrats looked poised to gain one seat, depending on Wisconsin, it could be two. But the lost of the house offsets and jubilation of retaining control of the senate. Even with the house loss, keeping the senate will give Biden his nominees to any court or position within government. Just keep in mind, there’s a long way to go until November. Things happen. But today, I’d say the Democrats aren’t in real bad shape. No red wave.

 

[Jay59]

The Republican party has gone insane.

Not so that I have noticed. They stand for the same things they did ten and twenty years ago.

In contrast, Democrats have done some crazy things. Case in point, trying to spend $4 Trillion dollars with inflation looming. They actually spent half of that.

Ah, the senate map. There’re five states the pundits rate a pure tossup. Democratic held Arizona, Nevada and Georgia along with Republican held Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two states with leans, Democratic held New Hampshire leans Democratic and Republican held North Carolina leans Republican. All the rest look safe or solid to the party that now holds them. There won’t be any big changes in the senate’s make up.

New Hampshire, D Hassan has a 4-point lead in the polls. She’s been elected twice so far; I think she will win again this time.

North Carolina, it’s an open seat, R Burr retired. R Budd which just won his primary has a 7.5-point lead over D Beasley. North Carolina will stay Republican. Now that brings us to the tossups.

Arizona, I’d give D Kelly, the incumbent the edge today. I don’t think Arizona will change hands.

Georgia, D Warnock, incumbent, been through all of this before vs. R Walker the rookie. Warnock has only a 0.5-point lead according to RCP. D Warnock incumbent advantage along with R Walker being about as inexperienced as one can be in politics, I don’t see Georgia going red. Today, Georgia stays blue.

Nevada, D Cortez-Masto, She has an average of a 2.5 point lead in two April polls along with being the incumbent. Nevada has been pretty blue lately. She’ll win over R Laxalt.

Pennsylvania, open seat, R Toomey retired. D Fetterman over whoever wins the GOP nomination. Fetterman is unique, he’ll win giving the Democrats a gain in PA.

Wisconsin, R Johnson who isn’t like much by Wisconsinites. Outside of that, no information on this senate race although the pundit’s rate it a tossup. I’ll wait before any predictions here. Lack of data, information.

No matter how Wisconsin goes, the Democrats looked poised to gain one seat, depending on Wisconsin, it could be two. But the lost of the house offsets and jubilation of retaining control of the senate. Even with the house loss, keeping the senate will give Biden his nominees to any court or position within government. Just keep in mind, there’s a long way to go until November. Things happen. But today, I’d say the Democrats aren’t in real bad shape. No red wave.

Four or five tossups. Some, notably Sabato, give Johnson a lean in Wisconsin.

Now that primaries are completed in PA and NC we may see movement in those numbers.

It's significant that three of the four or five are Democratic seats.

 

[wist43]

The Republican party has gone insane.

Take a look in the mirror

 

[wist43]

Not so that I have noticed. They stand for the same things they did ten and twenty years ago.

In contrast, Democrats have done some crazy things. Case in point, trying to spend $4 Trillion dollars with inflation looming. They actually spent half of that.


Four or five tossups. Some, notably Sabato, give Johnson a lean in Wisconsin.

Now that primaries are completed in PA and NC we may see movement in those numbers.

It's significant that three of the four or five are Democratic seats.

It'll be harder for the Dems to cheat using the drop boxes this time around... but you never know what the Dems might have up their sleeves.

I'm sure more concocted crises are in our future.

 

[Deuce]

I've never been convinced that generic ballots really mean much, particularly in a midterm

 

[Roadvirus]

The Republican party has gone insane.

The whole world has gone insane.

 

[Jay59]

I've never been convinced that generic ballots really mean much, particularly in a midterm

They have done studies, eg below. Like anything else, they have to be properly applied.

Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. to 2 p.m. eastern time. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. You can tune in for free at...

centerforpolitics.org

The whole world has gone insane.

Vanity of vanities, says the Preacher, vanity of vanities! dAll is vanity.
What does man gain by all the toil at which he toils under the sun?...

What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done,
and there is nothing new under the sun.
Is there a thing of which it is said, “See, this is new”?
It has been already in the ages before us.
There is no remembrance of former things,
nor will there be any remembrance of later things yet to be among those who come after.
Ecclesiastes 1: 2, 9-10

This is a famous passage. The word rendered as vanity would be better translated as vapor, something that cannot be grasped.

He later says

Behold, what I have seen to be good and fitting is to eat and drink and find enjoyment in all the toil with which one toils under the sun the few days of his life that God has given him, for this is his lot.
Ecclesiastes 5:18

The world has not gone insane because it has always been crazy. Enjoy it as you can, when you can, while it lasts.