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FiveThirtyEight forecasts on 10/29

switt said:
I'm nervously optimistic that Trump will loose. The only downside to a Trump loss is a Biden win. Small price to pay to get us out of the current mess. Just think, no more Proud Boys, Russians, ....
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The Russians and Proud Boys etc. will still be there. We'll just be able to deal with them.
 
roughdraft274 said:
It's going to be ugly no matter what. If it's close you'll have court challenges and republicans trying to block votes etc. Even Biden wins a landslide, trump will still tell his supporters to not accept it because it wasn't a fair election.

He won in 2016 and he still tried to argue that 1.5 million fraudulent votes were cast in California. If he's willing to make up a stupid lie when he wins I can only imagine how ugly it will be when he loses.
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And we thought no election can get uglier than the one that happened 20 years ago . . .
 
Ikari said:
Well it looks like, right now, that Democrats will make big gains. I don't know if they'll take the Senate, however. But we'll have to see Tuesday night what things shape up to be in reality. The polls may not be correct, and of course, none are stating a 0% chance for Trump to win.
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That would be like saying, "The 0-6 New York Jets still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl." Uh, not really, because three more losses will knock them out of playoff contention.
 
Blue Donkey said:
That would be like saying, "The 0-6 New York Jets still have a chance of winning the Super Bowl." Uh, not really, because three more losses will knock them out of playoff contention.
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Maybe, but last time it didn't quite work out well for Clinton and so there's no point in getting one's hopes up before the election.
 
Ikari said:
Maybe, but last time it didn't quite work out well for Clinton and so there's no point in getting one's hopes up before the election.
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I agree, it's like they say, don't expect too much and you won't be disappointed. I have a strong feeling that Joe Biden will win this election, but will patiently wait until the results are final.

 
vegas giants said:
I'd be surprised if they take the Senate. They lose one they have now in Alabama which makes it that much harder.
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It is only one seat. Gaining a Democrat somewhere else to make up for him in addition to at least three more will put us in the majority. See my thread with a CNN link.
 
roughdraft274 said:
It's going to be ugly no matter what. If it's close you'll have court challenges and republicans trying to block votes etc. Even Biden wins a landslide, trump will still tell his supporters to not accept it because it wasn't a fair election.

Hell, he won in 2016 and he still tried to argue that 1.5 million fraudulent votes were cast in California. If he's willing to make up a stupid lie when he wins I can only imagine how ugly it will be when he loses.
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Not nearly as ugly almost the entire left has been since they were handed their loss.
 
Fishking said:
Not nearly as ugly almost the entire left has been since they were handed their loss.
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2009 Tea baggers showed us ugly. Racist ugly.
 
At the risk of getting cocky, I personally think Trump's chances are closer to 5/100, since I just don't see him getting Nevada, Maine, New Hampshire or Minnesota. When you eliminate those paths you're down to four or five realistic looking paths.

Sure, I get it, the four states I named do appear in 538's model outcomes; I just don't think it's going to happen.
 
Cardinal said:
At the risk of getting cocky, I personally think his Trump's chances are closer to 5/100, since I just don't see him getting Nevada, Maine, New Hampshire or Minnesota. When you eliminate those paths you're down to four or five realistic looking paths.

Sure, I get it, the four states I named do appear in 538's model outcomes; I just don't think it's going to happen.
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I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't want to be more than that.
 
calamity said:
2009 Tea baggers showed us ugly. Racist ugly.
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Oh yeah....those terrible TEA party people who did things like hold rallies with permits and cleaning up their own trash and stuff. How dare they!
 
RetiredUSN said:
You have white liberal white girls in the streets calling cops "house ______"

But good ole Calamity is on a roll, so let's give him room.
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You're watching too much Tucker Carlson
 
bearpoker said:
I'm cautiously optimistic. I don't want to be more than that.
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I'm more focused on the number of paths than his likelihood of winning. I'm cautiously optimistic too, but the "cautiously" is due to the fact that five of the outcomes seem super super realistic to me. All five of those electoral victories are through Pa and Az, and yeah, that could happen.
 
swing_voter said:
Trump's at 11% chance of victory now, it keeps dropping.

He had a 18% chance a couple of months ago.
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Still room to steal. He's got a biased SCOTUS to put their thumb on the scale.
 
switt said:
I'm nervously optimistic that Trump will loose. The only downside to a Trump loss is a Biden win. Small price to pay to get us out of the current mess. Just think, no more Proud Boys, Russians, ....
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I think the proud boy tantrum after a loss will be quite loud I'm afraid.
 
The moment that I turned on the tv the morning after the election 4 years ago and saw Trump's mug with the words 45th president is seared into my brain the same as the moment I heard Challenger had exploded, the same as when I learned Bobby Kennedy had been killed.

I'm not going to bed this year until I know. I never want to start a day like that again in my life. I went to my local diner for coffee and seriously considered asking for a shot of whiskey in my coffee. Before work, even.
 
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