FiveThirtyEight forecasts on 10/29

[iguanaman]

There is probably a better way to phrase that.

Yes I obviously was referring to a voting minority of less than 50% of the electorate but I know what you mean.

 

[skeptic llc]

Yes I obviously was referring to a voting minority of less than 50% of the electorate but I know what you mean.

I like anything that makes me laugh.

 

[skeptic llc]

It is seriously all over.

Trump's predicate would be ruined, ie, to stop the vote counting Tuesday night while he presumed he'd be in the lead. Stop the postal and dropoff ballots from being counted that would give Biden the clear and morally indisputable win.

Yet if Ohio and PA -- plus FL & GA -- go for Biden in the eastern time zone, Trump will need to flee the country instead -- to Russia of course.

Then there'd be TX to look forward to because if OH & GA go for Biden so will TX. That would leave Trump with only the Deep South that in 1860 started all this trouble to begin with and got away with it besides.

I'm not sure Putin would take Trump in. ("Not for a million, not for ten million.") Putin will need to do some serious damage control if Trump loses.

 

[Buckeyes85]

I'm hoping for a Biden win significant enough to make those court challenges effectively irrelevant.

But this is 2020, so I'm not betting on that.

Do you mean irrelevant from a legal perspective, or so lopsided that even Trump won't mount useless challenges? I don't know there is a number big enough for that. And perhaps worse yet, he will spend from 11/3 until the inauguration further trying to divide the nation and make any move towards national unity as unlikely as possible.

 

[Tangmo]

Was just watching Mr King work the wall on CNN and he showed something I missed. Quinnipiac’s recent Ohio poll puts Biden up 5 points

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ (You’ll have to scroll down)

It is seriously all over.

Trump's predicate would be ruined, ie, to stop the vote counting Tuesday night while he presumed he'd be in the lead. Stop the postal and dropoff ballots from being counted that would give Biden the clear and morally indisputable win.

Yet if Ohio and PA -- plus FL & GA -- go for Biden in the eastern time zone, Trump will need to flee the country instead -- to Russia of course. Then there'd be TX to look forward to because of OH & GA go for Biden so will TX. That would leave Trump with only the Deep South that in 1860 started all this trouble to begin with and got away with it besides.

 

[beefheart]

I'm not sure Putin would take Trump in. ("Not for a million, not for ten million.") Putin will need to do some serious damage control if Trump loses.

Lukaschenko might...and he can take in all the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers and militias to provide him security...

 

[Tangmo]

I'm not sure Putin would take Trump in. ("Not for a million, not for ten million.") Putin will need to do some serious damage control if Trump loses.

Your point is well taken however, Putin doesn't know limitations. He just goes in deeper in the certainty he will prevail by triumph of the will. Putin learns nothing. He needs to be wacked between the eyes with a 2x4 every time until he can't see any more.

 

[skeptic llc]

Lukaschenko might...and he can take in all the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers and militias to provide him security...

Trump is just a stepping stone for the white supremacists IMO, not someone they will care about personally once he's out. In fact, I don't think there are many people anywhere who will stand by his side. If he was a less repugnant being I would feel sorry for him.

 

[beefheart]

Check out Drudge, it really is pointing to a Biden blow-out.

 

[Torus34]

Should President of the United States of America Donald Trump lose the Electoral College vote [Ed.: That's the only one that matters,] he and his administration as well as the Senate will have 80 days remaining to do a number of things including Executive Orders and filling vacant federal judgeships. There have been indications in the past that President Trump may be capable of vindictive actions.

We do, it seems, live in interesting times.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

 

[Tangmo]

Should President of the United States of America Donald Trump lose the Electoral College vote [Ed.: That's the only one that matters,] he and his administration as well as the Senate will have 80 days remaining to do a number of things including Executive Orders and filling vacant federal judgeships. There have been indications in the past that President Trump may be capable of vindictive actions.

We do, it seems, live in interesting times.

Regards, stay safe 'n well. Remember the Big 3: masks, hand washing and physical distancing.

Dare I say don't forget to vote.

 

[schnur07]

I am voting with Alexa.....

 

[911Sparky]

If the polls prove correct and this election is a complete disaster for the GOP.....THEN you'll see them throw Trump under the bus.

I wonder about that, because trumpism will still be a thing. Republicans may need to find a way to blend trumpism with something a little more mainstream.

 

[Tangmo]

I wonder about that, because trumpism will still be a thing. Republicans may need to find a way to blend trumpism with something a little more mainstream.

Republicans have become what we fought against to defeat throughout the 20th century. Republicans and Conservatives need to be isolated from the loyal and normal mainstream of Americans so that their destructiveness is removed from our Constitutional society and its rule of law. It is a high priority and it needs to be done Constitutionally of course.

 

[TurtleDude]

True that. But I think that pulling the welcome mat out from under Proud Boys and Russia will slow them down.

so you are worried more about "proud boys" than the people who did most of the looting and violence a few months ago?

 

[TurtleDude]

Republicans have become what we fought against to defeat throughout the 20th century. Republicans and Conservatives need to be isolated from the loyal and normal mainstream of Americans so that their destructiveness is removed from our Constitutional society and its rule of law. It is a high priority and it needs to be done Constitutionally of course.

this is one of the most idiotic bits of partisan bullshit I have seen. You want a society where everyone is some form of socialist or progressive. Its typical of the left, that can tolerate no dissent

 

[lurchadams]

Biden is favored to win the election.....

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Democrats are favored to win the Senate.....

2020 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2020 Senate elections by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Democrats are clearly favored to win the House.....

2020 House Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2020 House elections by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I'm still phone-banking swing states to get out the vote this weekend! We need to keep our foot on the gas right up until 11/3 and probably after. Heaven knows what kind of evil shit the state Republicans will try to do to overturn the will of the people.

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

this is one of the most idiotic bits of partisan bullshit I have seen. You want a society where everyone is some form of socialist or progressive. Its typical of the left, that can tolerate no dissent

And you're happy with a government that lies to you about the pandemic the same way the Soviets lied about Chernobyl or China lied about the virus. While the government lies to you it also insists that journalists exposing its lies are not to be believed.

I bet you never imagined you would be a proud Soviet.

 

[TurtleDude]

And you're happy with a government that lies to you about the pandemic the same way the Soviets lied about Chernobyl or China lied about the virus. While the government lies to you it also insists that journalists exposing its lies are not to be believed.

I bet you never imagined you would be a proud Soviet.

tell us what the democrats as a whole said that was different than what Trump did. You cannot. We know China lied about the virus. We know that there were several issues that had to be dealt with-and the best solution to one, was the worst response to the other. Such as the economic harm in shutting things down. We know Biden said many of the things Trump did as did many of the Democrat Governors and other leaders. If Biden really has plan-why not release it now? He claims to BE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY-well good-have congress start pushing his plan. But he WON'T. He doesn't have anything additional.

 

[Mongidig]

tell us what the democrats as a whole said that was different than what Trump did. You cannot. We know China lied about the virus. We know that there were several issues that had to be dealt with-and the best solution to one, was the worst response to the other. Such as the economic harm in shutting things down. We know Biden said many of the things Trump did as did many of the Democrat Governors and other leaders. If Biden really has plan-why not release it now? He claims to BE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY-well good-have congress start pushing his plan. But he WON'T. He doesn't have anything additional.

Leadership!

 

[TurtleDude]

Leadership!

mindless nonsense./ You're the one who claims to have gone from one of Trump's biggest cheerleaders to now one of Biden's based on the pandemic response. You'd think you'd have a far better thought out response
Biden and Leadership? Oh come on, the guy is an obvious puppet.

 

[The Mark]

Do you mean irrelevant from a legal perspective, or so lopsided that even Trump won't mount useless challenges? I don't know there is a number big enough for that. And perhaps worse yet, he will spend from 11/3 until the inauguration further trying to divide the nation and make any move towards national unity as unlikely as possible.

I mean so lopsided that even Trump won't.

 

[skeptic llc]

Do you mean irrelevant from a legal perspective, or so lopsided that even Trump won't mount useless challenges? I don't know there is a number big enough for that. And perhaps worse yet, he will spend from 11/3 until the inauguration further trying to divide the nation and make any move towards national unity as unlikely as possible.

I don't think that's his style. Before the 2016 win he was already making excuses for his (expected) loss. If he loses, I hope he'll announce his spin (it was illegals, or whatever) and move on.

 

[Tangmo]

this is one of the most idiotic bits of partisan bullshit I have seen. You want a society where everyone is some form of socialist or progressive. Its typical of the left, that can tolerate no dissent

Said the PutinTrump Rower while pointing to his armband.

 

[TurtleDude]

Said the PutinTrump Rower while pointing to his armband.

Oh that's cute but you can find ZERO posts of mine that actually support your mendacious bullshit.