FiveThirtyEight forecasts on 10/29

[skeptic llc]

Not really. He never got more than 15%. Powell was a political insider

Perot received 19,743,821 votes, which accounted for 18.91% of the popular vote. Ross Perot 1992 presidential campaign - Wikipedia

I didn't think of Powell as a politician or political insider, but I'm no expert.

 

[Man0in3Black]

Not really. He never got more than 15%. Powell was a political insider

I think what killed Perot's chances was when he dropped out in July and tried to get back in come October - but he'd lost all the momentum he had and cost him dearly. He screwed himself so bad doing that.

 

[vegas giants]

Perot received 19,743,821 votes, which accounted for 18.91% of the popular vote. Ross Perot 1992 presidential campaign - Wikipedia

I didn't think of Powell as a politician or political insider, but I'm no expert.

Ok 18.91%. I stand corrected. But not a serious challenge

 

[skeptic llc]

He was actually winning for a while in the year of the election.

"A national grassroots mobilization ensued and Perot moved up in the polls – fast. By the late spring, he was running in first place. An ABC News/Washington Post poll in early June gave him 36% to Bush’s 30%, with Clinton back at 25%." https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ross-pe...rumors-third-party-trump-candidacy-msna646596

 

[SonOfDaedalus]

Trump's odds are down to 10%.

The only two maps from the simulation where he wins require him to win Wisconsin and Maine or Michigan. He's down double digits in those states.

I'm starting to feel optimistic that we'll be rid of the Moron in Chief and return to normal politics.

 

[skeptic llc]

Trump's odds are down to 10%.

The only two maps from the simulation where he wins require him to win Wisconsin and Maine or Michigan. He's down double digits in those states.

I'm starting to feel optimistic that we'll be rid of the Moron in Chief and return to normal politics.

Amen.

 

[upsideguy]

Trump's at 11% chance of victory now, it keeps dropping.

He had a 18% chance a couple of months ago.

Actually, on Sept 1 it was 60/31....

Trump's odds are down to 10%.

The only two maps from the simulation where he wins require him to win Wisconsin and Maine or Michigan. He's down double digits in those states.

I'm starting to feel optimistic that we'll be rid of the Moron in Chief and return to normal politics.

The unfortunate thing is that Biden needs to win by several states or Trump is likely to make a fuss. Elections are not suppose to work that way; with the challenger needing to win convincingly while its ok for the incumbent to win 1, but that is what it seems has to happen to shut Trump up on election day.

 

[gbg3]

Oh those Trafalgar polls

 

[upsideguy]

You think the coronavirus gives a **** who the President is? Do you think BLM will suddenly disappear? The coronavirus will magically disappear too? Geez lmfao

Of course not, but they certainly are not going to diminish nor disappear when you ignore them, as the incumbent has.

 

[mrdeltoid]

They almost never have a serious chance to win. Trump was a fluke

I agree with you there. In 2016 I was shocked that he won. Now he's running on his record, so, win or lose, it will be because of that. I'm at a complete loss on picking the winner this year. I just don't know. there are so many variables, it's hard to figure.

 

[Tangmo]

Well we're almost there, Tuesday is approaching, then we'll know.

We're talking now about the close of all voting the evening of November 3rd, 2020.

We're not talking this time about "Election Day." When the winner is declared before midnight.

Postal ballots and dropoff ballots will be counted in the Pandemic Election and that will continue to be tallied during Election Results Week, 2020. So you'd be wise to settle in for a few dayze and nights rather than expect erroneously to know when you awake on Wednesday morning. Because this time Wednesday morning may not arrive until the weekend.

 

[beefheart]

Amen.

He needs to be flushed like a big orange turd.

 

[Tangmo]

I agree with you there. In 2016 I was shocked that he won. Now he's running on his record, so, win or lose, it will be because of that. I'm at a complete loss on picking the winner this year. I just don't know. there are so many variables, it's hard to figure.

So, it varies.

Either you're "picking a winner" or voting for the guy you prefer.

That could be one and the same of course. Based on your post however it seems "hard to figure."

 

[Tangmo]

One thing for sure, win or loose, we’ll never see another outsider run for POTUS. Trump is the only one with a big enough ego, to not care what the swamp says about him, and to weather the onslaught of hate.

It's called Uniquely American 21st Century Fascism.

 

[Mongidig]

Trump's at 11% chance of victory now, it keeps dropping.

He had a 18% chance a couple of months ago.

It will be worse after tonight's rally in Minnesota where they are being forced to have reduced crowds and social distancing.

 

[Tangmo]

Trump is a narcissistic baby who only desired to establish his own swamp. There may be "outsiders" in the future, but hopefully they are far more intelligent and tempered than Trump.

An "outsider" is by historical definition a wackjob.

 

[skeptic llc]

Trump's at 11% chance of victory now, it keeps dropping.

He had a 18% chance a couple of months ago.

All else equal, I think his chances go down over time because there is less room left for the race to shift (and more and more votes are already cast).

 

[Ikari]

We're talking now about the close of all voting the evening of November 3rd, 2020.

We're not talking this time about "Election Day." When the winner is declared before midnight.

Postal ballots and dropoff ballots will be counted in the Pandemic Election and that will continue to be tallied during Election Results Week, 2020. So you'd be wise to settle in for a few dayze and nights rather than expect erroneously to know when you awake on Wednesday morning. Because this time Wednesday morning may not arrive until the weekend.

It's all going to depend, largely, on the vote totals.

 

[skeptic llc]

I agree with you there. In 2016 I was shocked that he won. Now he's running on his record, so, win or lose, it will be because of that. I'm at a complete loss on picking the winner this year. I just don't know. there are so many variables, it's hard to figure.

I think Ds learned a lesson from 2016, and that is why the D powers that be pushed so hard to get all the other non-Bernies out of the race once Biden won SC. Powerful Rs should have done the same in 2016 -- they'd still have a party they'd recognize if they had done so.

 

[upsideguy]

All else equal, I think his chances go down over time because there is less room left for the race to shift (and more and more votes are already cast).

That actually is the 538 methodology.... it was the chance of a candidate winning on election day. The odds included the chance that environment could change between the polling date and election day. Hence, the closer you got to election day, the less the opportunity for a variable (uncertainty), the more likely it was for the favored candidate to actually win.

Biden's improvement in this number was likely far more about it being more predictable that closer you got to election day than any other type of firming up of support.

 

[skeptic llc]

It's all going to depend, largely, on the vote totals.

If Florida goes blue on election day, I think that will end the suspense.

 

[iguanaman]

Maybe.

If it's close we might not know for sure until a couple weeks later.

It is not going to be close and Biden will take over 50% of the vote easily. No more minority Presidents. They divide and disrupt our nation.

 

[iguanaman]

You think the coronavirus gives a **** who the President is? Do you think BLM will suddenly disappear? The coronavirus will magically disappear too? Geez lmfao

When you are really sick do you go to a doctor? Or do you take the advice of a grumpy uncle? We need to give the virus BACK to the doctors who know how to treat it. Trump is not a doctor.

 

[skeptic llc]

No more minority Presidents.

There is probably a better way to phrase that.

 

[Tangmo]

Was just watching Mr King work the wall on CNN and he showed something I missed. Quinnipiac’s recent Ohio poll puts Biden up 5 points

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ (You’ll have to scroll down)

It is seriously all over.

Trump's predicate would be ruined, ie, to stop the vote counting Tuesday night while he presumed he'd be in the lead. Stop the postal and dropoff ballots from being counted that would give Biden the clear and morally indisputable win.

Yet if Ohio and PA -- plus FL & GA -- go for Biden in the eastern time zone, Trump will need to flee the country instead -- to Russia of course.

Then there'd be TX to look forward to because if OH & GA go for Biden so will TX. That would leave Trump with only the Deep South that in 1860 started all this trouble to begin with and got away with it besides.