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Employment Situation 1 April 2016

pinqy

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Employment Situation 1 April, 2016
Establishment data (B tables)
Change in Nonfarm payroll jobs: From Feb 2016 (seasonally adjusted): +215,000
Change in Average hourly earnings:+$0.07
Change in Average weekly earnings:+$2.41

Household data (A tables)
Change in Labor Force: +396,000
Change in Labor Force Participation Rate: +0.1 percentage points
Change in Employment:+246,000
Change in Employment-Population Ratio: +0.1 percentage points
Change in Unemployment:+151,000
Change in Unemployment Rate: +.1 percentage points
Change in Not in the Labor Force:-206,000
Change in Discouraged Workers:-14,000
Change in Full time employees:+241,000
Change in Part time employees:-35,000
 

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Time for DA to tell us how this is so terrible!
 

DA60

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Overall...this looks like a generally solid report (from what I have seen of it).

Of course, the 'official' unemployment rate went up. But since the U-3 basically means nothing (imo), it should be ignored. It will be interesting how the media spins it - since they are so U-3 fixated. My guess is they will blow it off.These days, the major media is crying out for good macroeconomic news.

Manufacturing took it on the chin again and average weekly earnings improved but are still lower than two months ago (though they rose in March).

But overall, the numbers look pretty good for the month to me.


Which leads me to wonder why Yellen came out with her ultra-dovish speech the other day.
 
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DA60

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Time for DA to tell us how this is so terrible!

I call it as I see it. I do not recall ever calling the numbers 'terrible'...but maybe I am forgetting a month or two. Yet you keep saying I call them 'terrible'. If you are going to deliberately misrepresent my words, then I am going to feel free to do likewise to you. Ah, the heck with it...I will just ignore you, you are not worth the effort to me.

Just because you have such a poor understanding of macroeconomics that you fall for the government headline statistics like a wide eyed child...does not mean the rest of us (who actually have to make a living through investments) have to Mr. Zero Interest Rates Are Good All The Time.

Unlike you, I look past the government propaganda (no matter which party is in power) and look at the numbers that really tell the story (or at least, tell a better story).

And, once again, I am neither Rep nor Dem.


Have a nice day.
 
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Kushinator

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fredgraph.png
 

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Villiage Idiot
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On the surface it looks like pretty decent news. The only problem is wage growth is a little behind job creation, but things are somewhat better.

View attachment 67199696

U.S. adds 215,000 new jobs in March as more workers enter labor force - MarketWatch

With hundreds of thousands of people entering the work force, and tens of thousands of those being formerly discouraged workers, I'm not surprised that income is still lagging.

What may soon lead to faster wage growth is all those part time workers getting full time jobs.
 

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...
Manufacturing took it on the chin again ...

Manufacturing will never again be a major job creator due to automation. Poor manufacturing job growth is probably also hurting wage growth as low skilled manufacturing workers transition to low skill service sector workers they will undoubtably be paid less.

Not that I understand why. We often assume that working on the assembly line takes a higher skill level than flipping burgers, but I've done both and I've supervised both, and it's my opinion that service jobs are at about the same skill level if not higher than assembly line jobs. I don't know why manufacturing ever paid more than the service sector, other than for the fact that most low skilled service sector jobs are part time and for some reason we assume that people taking a 20 hour a week job don't need to make as much per hour as a 40+ hour a week job.
 

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I call it as I see it. I do not recall ever calling the numbers 'terrible'...but maybe I am forgetting a month or two. Yet you keep saying I call them 'terrible'. If you are going to deliberately misrepresent my words, then I am going to feel free to do likewise to you. Ah, the heck with it...I will just ignore you, you are not worth the effort to me.

Just because you have such a poor understanding of macroeconomics that you fall for the government headline statistics like a wide eyed child...does not mean the rest of us (who actually have to make a living through investments) have to Mr. Zero Interest Rates Are Good All The Time.

Unlike you, I look past the government propaganda (no matter which party is in power) and look at the numbers that really tell the story (or at least, tell a better story).

And, once again, I am neither Rep nor Dem.


Have a nice day.

Now come on, I'm sure that there was some random demographic that had bad numbers, there always is.
 

mmi

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wage growth is a little behind job creation

As Kushinator's graph in #6 indicates, annual wage growth over the past several months has been around 2.5%, while employment has been expanding at around 2%.

average weekly earnings improved but are still lower than two months ago (though they rose in March).

If you look at average real hourly earnings of non-managerial, private-sector employees, the number has been improving for a few years now.

average_real__weekly_earnings_non-super_1996_2016.jpg

Here's a breakdown of the past fifty years by the party in the WH:

yearsannual % change
66-68+1.3
69-76+.3
77-80-1.7
81-92-.65
92-00+.72
01-08+.38
09-15+.83

Obummer's economy has outperformed all others, despite the problems we had in his first term. The figure for Feb was $8.97, the highest since Dec 1978, and within $.47 of the all-time high of $9.44 in Jan 1973. It's up $.40 (4.7%) over the past three years, after falling by nearly a dime over the previous four years while the labor market recovered from the GOP SSE Great Recession.
 

mmi

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The numbers straight from BLS are a little different, but follow the same pattern.

average_real__weekly_earnings_non-super_1964_2016.jpg

Adding 64-65 to Johnson's numbers pushes his annual rate up to 1.65%, expanding his lead over Obummer. (I got that wrong before.)
 
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drz-400

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Overall...this looks like a generally solid report (from what I have seen of it).

Of course, the 'official' unemployment rate went up. But since the U-3 basically means nothing (imo), it should be ignored. It will be interesting how the media spins it - since they are so U-3 fixated. My guess is they will blow it off.These days, the major media is crying out for good macroeconomic news.

Manufacturing took it on the chin again and average weekly earnings improved but are still lower than two months ago (though they rose in March).

But overall, the numbers look pretty good for the month to me.


Which leads me to wonder why Yellen came out with her ultra-dovish speech the other day.

One of the most reliable indicators of recession is the 12 month moving average of unemployment moving above its monthly level. That's why everyone watches it. For the record the moving average is at 5.1% right now.

S&P 500 is in an earnings recession. Commodities and manufacturing are getting crushed due to China slowdown. CPI growth slowed significantly, to near 0 from a year ago for several months due to commodity prices. Junk bonds have gotten crushed. There is a real reason to be worried about the state of the economy, which is why Yellen has been very scared to raise rates again... and thank god she hasn't.
 
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chuckiechan

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After almost eight years obamanomics is beginning to produce results. I don't know whether to laugh or cry!
 

drz-400

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After almost eight years obamanomics is beginning to produce results. I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

Just wait til we get a 45% tariff on Chinese or Mexican imports. Or NAFTA and other trade agreements get tore up. You'll be crying in your beer.
 

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Nothing like e verify and fair and honest trade to create a labor shortage. Business might actually have to train entry level legal citizens for a change to fill those slots!

Maybe we can even break even on our trade accounts.
 

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Nothing like e verify and fair and honest trade to create a labor shortage. Business might actually have to train entry level legal citizens for a change to fill those slots!

Maybe we can even break even on our trade accounts.

I'm in agreement with you on illegal immigration. However, I was speaking about the tariff proposals. You realize the reason why we have a negative trade balance is because free people want to buy those things? Its not anyone who is committing a fraud. You put a tariff on imports you make us all poorer. Anyone voting for Donald or Bernie should think about this a little harder.
 

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One of the most reliable indicators of recession is the 12 month moving average of unemployment moving above its monthly level. That's why everyone watches it. For the record the moving average is at 5.1% right now.
Maybe that is why some economists watch it. But that is not why most people watch it. They watch it because they are brainwashed into thinking that it is an accurate gauge of the employment situation in America.
Even the Fed finally realizes (sort of) that it is not.

The U-3 is a joke, IMO. Any unemployment statistic that treats unemployed people as off of the labor force simply because they gave up looking (because there are no jobs) but still desperately want work is a joke.
I don't follow the U-3...I study the numbers under the surface for a better picture. It takes more time, but it is the only way to even remotely gauge what is really going on with employment in America, IMO.

The U-3 is designed to make the sitting government look like it is doing a better job on the economy then it really is (even Trump understands that). The same - to a lesser extent - with the GDP and the CPI numbers. They are skewed to the positive and are generally unreliable.

S&P 500 is in an earnings recession. Commodities and manufacturing are getting crushed due to China slowdown. CPI growth slowed significantly, to near 0 from a year ago for several months due to commodity prices. Junk bonds have gotten crushed. There is a real reason to be worried about the state of the economy, which is why Yellen has been very scared to raise rates again... and thank god she hasn't.

I agree with all of this.


And btw, I despise both major parties...my interest in this is mostly financial/personal.
 
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pinqy

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Any unemployment statistic that treats unemployed people as off of the labor force simply because they gave up looking (because there are no jobs) but still desperately want work is a joke.

Why? I've asked you this many times, but you've never given any thought out explanation that I recall. The unemployment rate is meant to objectively measure how much labor that was available in a particular month was not being used. How wold including people who were not available be more accurate and why would how desperate someone is matter?

Based on your previous posts, no, I don't expect an actual, well-thought answer. But it's worth a shot.
 

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So, nothing great, nothing bad. That's what you get with a government that doesn't care very much about the economy. As long as it's not in the headlines, they're okay with it. The malaise continues.
 

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After almost eight years obamanomics is beginning to produce results. I don't know whether to laugh or cry!

"Beginning to show results"?

  • seven years of steady economic expansion
  • more than thirteen million full-time, private-sector jobs added since Dec 2009
  • very low inflation
  • federal expenditures up only 8.3% since Q2 2009
  • federal revenues up 54%
  • deficit as a percentage of GDP down 75%
  • twenty million more Americans with health insurance
Any unemployment statistic that treats unemployed people as off of the labor force simply because they gave up looking (because there are no jobs) but still desperately want work is a joke.

No jobs? The number of job openings as a percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population has doubled since 2009, and is now well above the Bush43 bubble high.

job_openings_as_perc_civ_noninst_pop_2001_2015.jpg

You say people who "desperately want work" are counted as "out of the labor force." How desperate can they be if they're not even looking?

5.4 million currently report that they want a job but aren't looking. 1.1 million of those have an issue that prevents them from working at the moment — school or family responsibilities, ill health, transportation problems, etc. So yes, they want a job, but couldn't start one if it were available.

That leaves 4.3 million. 1.7 million of those have looked for work in the past year, but not actively in the past four weeks. Doesn't sound desperate to me.

That leaves 2.6 million. Only 585K are so-called "discouraged workers" who have given up looking for a job because they don't think they'll find one. This includes those who believe they lack the necessary schooling, training, skills, or experience, and those who think they are being discriminated against (typically disabled).

>>I don't follow the U-3...I study the numbers under the surface for a better picture.

You read ZipHedge and then tout whatever isolated (and often misleading) negative number you can find as evidence that the economy is doing poorly.

>>the GDP and the CPI numbers. They are skewed to the positive and are generally unreliable.

Completely unsupported nonsense.

>>I despise both major parties

I figure they don't think very highly of you either.

>>my interest in this is mostly financial/personal.

Yer interest is talking down the economy to support the price of Precious.

Business might actually have to train entry level legal citizens for a change to fill those slots!

Why don't these people do something about getting trained, instead of waiting for someone to take care of it for them? Are these "legal citizens" teat-suckers???

As long as it's not in the headlines, they're okay with it. The malaise continues.

What's "not in the headlines"? What "malaise"?
 
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"Number 47, you're order is ready!"
 

JasperL

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"
You read ZipHedge and then tout whatever isolated (and often misleading) negative number you can find as evidence that the economy is doing poorly.


I think you're referring to Zero Hedge, and if so, their employment coverage was what got me to quit reading anything on that site. It was so sloppy/biased/inaccurate, month after month, that I finally had to conclude that whoever runs the place isn't interested at all in actually good analysis and is doing something else, and I didn't care to figure out what that something else was.
 

DA60

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Why? I've asked you this many times, but you've never given any thought out explanation that I recall. The unemployment rate is meant to objectively measure how much labor that was available in a particular month was not being used. How wold including people who were not available be more accurate and why would how desperate someone is matter?

Based on your previous posts, no, I don't expect an actual, well-thought answer. But it's worth a shot.

Why should I waste my time trying to convince someone of something when I am TOTALLY convinced they are TOTALLY closed minded on that subject? That would be the very definition of wasted time, imo. I am not typing that to offend...I am typing it because that is exactly what I believe.


But because you seem a basically decent chap...I will say again (simplified)...if you are not employed and want a job and are legally able to work then you should be classified as unemployed...period. Whether you are actively looking or not is TOTALLY irrelevant. You could be not looking because you are lazy or you could be not looking because you did and there are NO JOBS to be had and you have to do something else (like school, gardening, praying, crying etc.).

Nothing more needs to be said...it is staggeringly obvious to me.

To call someone who is not employed and who desperately wants a job and is legally able to work but is not actively looking because there are no jobs available not only not unemployed, but out of the labor force is asinine in the extremis (no offense) to me.

My God man...the very definition of unemployed is:

'unemployed
[uhn-em-ploid]
Spell Syllables
Synonyms Examples Word Origin
See more synonyms on Thesaurus.com
adjective
1.
not employed; without a job; out of work:
'

Unemployed | Define Unemployed at Dictionary.com

The fact that you cannot see this is truly amazing...your INTENSE loyalty to the BLS I guess.


It is like explaining why is oxygen important...it is that simple/obvious to me.


If you do not understand the above now, I fear you never will.


And since I am POSITIVE that my explanation is something you TOTALLY disagree with...we are (once again) done on this for now.


Good day.
 
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mmi

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"Number 47, you're order is ready!"

Jobs added by industry since the GOP SSE Great Recession:

industryjobs added% increase
construction2,245,00023%
professional and business services3,656,00022%
food services and drinking places2,013,00022%
education and health services3,033,00016%
manufacturing885,0008%
total private sector14,435,00013%

[/tr]
 

Erod

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Jobs added by industry since the GOP SSE Great Recession:

industryjobs added% increase
construction2,245,00023%
professional and business services3,656,00022%
food services and drinking places2,013,00022%
education and health services3,033,00016%
manufacturing885,0008%
total private sector14,435,00013%

[/tr]

Geez, complete delusion.

How do you folks convince yourselves of these things. Oh, never mind, you're about to nominate a felon.
 
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