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We talk a lot about which states Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win this year, but this is only relevant if Electoral College votes are noted in the discussion. That is how we know which states someone needs to win to reach 270 (the minimum to win the election). So I looked up the Electoral Map on Real Clear Politics, which includes how many votes are assigned to each state. Gray means tossup. You can also create your own map.
RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map
We talk a lot about which states Joe Biden or Donald Trump could win this year, but this is only relevant if Electoral College votes are noted in the discussion. That is how we know which states someone needs to win to reach 270 (the minimum to win the election). So I looked up the Electoral Map on Real Clear Politics, which includes how many votes are assigned to each state. Gray means tossup. You can also create your own map.
RealClearPolitics - 2020 Election Maps - 2020 Electoral College Map
I think Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will revert to their long history of voting Democratic and go to Biden. Biden also picks up Arizona. So without calling Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, I have Biden 289-186 which make those three states irrelevant. One can give them to whoever one wants to.
I think Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will revert to their long history of voting Democratic and go to Biden. Biden also picks up Arizona. So without calling Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, I have Biden 289-186 which make those three states irrelevant. One can give them to whoever one wants to.
If the vote is heard, will be a landslide for Biden, clearly. What I worry about is the cheating. The Trump® "team", led by Bill Barr is at war with our very democratic elections. I really fear they can "win" certainly not legitamately though. Trump will carry too many southern state, but way too many votes.
We have the propagandists at Fox, OANN and all the others to thank for this disonance. This should be NOWHERE near as close as it is....
Trump can lose 37 EVs and still win, as he’d win at 269-269. That could be losing PA, MI, and ME-02. Plenty of combos. D states of NH, MN, and NV were won by a total of only 74k, so there’s definitely that.
AZ was only lost by 91k and McCain’s coattails won that one. Same with Rubio helping Trump in FL, where Trump only won by 113k, whereas Rubio won by 713k.
I don’t see as much ticket-splitting this time in crucial Senate/Potus states, such as NC and AZ. I see this far more explosive than most simply because of Bill Barr and election tampering.
This map is actually a lot more nervewracking than it looks at first glance.
View attachment 67295051
I'm from Texas and I can tell you, on this election cycle we Texan's are voting for Biden
The only point I would correct in your post is that Trump would actually lose in a perfect tie, since the House would pick the President and the Senate would pick the VP.
Personally, I like my own interactive map better because I can add a "tilt" color that shows a lead inside the margin of error (1-4% lead). Less than 1% lead is a dead heat.
View attachment 67295054
I'm from Texas and I can tell you, on this election cycle we Texan's are voting for Biden
This is kinda one of the advantages Biden has right now. He needs to hold the states Clinton got(which does not look really hard), and regain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin(which is very doable) and he wins. Trump in the meantime has to hold all those states he took last time that look close now, such as Georgia, Florida, Texas. If he loses just one of those, he can't win, so he has to pour a lot of resources into them, while Biden can effectively ignore them for the most part and focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Florida is, once again, fingernail-bitingly important. The reason for this is because Florida uses some kind of early reporting system (I forget the details) that will result in the state calling their results on November 3rd. The reason why this is important is because if Biden wins this state, that's it....the election is over and he wins. If Trump gets it, there are still plenty of paths left open to Biden, but the problem is this: on the day of the election, the in-person voting will be counted first, showing Trump with a clear win. But 65% of mail-in ballots will be for Biden, and those will continue to be counted in the following month(s) and Trump's lead will vanish, possibly to a loss. The problem? Trump will use every mechanism at his disposal to stop those counts, via the courts and possibly even through the DOJ itself, somehow. If he loses Florida it's going to be much harder for him to pull this stunt.
Since we live in a cruel, unfair and cold universe, Trump is likely going to take Florida, and 2020 is going to be 2000 on methamphetamine.
Joe Biden needs to campaign harder in Florida and Texas than any other swing states, which both went to Donald Trump in 2016. RCP features pie charts for all 50 states and DC that show percentages of each candidate's support rounded up to whole numbers. I could rearrange them to display in tightest to most lopsided order.
I think they both go Trump® (though I bet there is MUCH controversy on how Florida calls it a Trump win), but your map is basically just about same as I came up with.
That's TOO close, it won't probably reflect on election day, and I expect Bill Barr to use the FULL powers of his office to make it into a Trump® win. I forsee MASSIVE legal battles to negate mail in votes, for MONTHS, likely doomed to fail unless they get a chance to throw that Jellyfish Cruz in the court (can RGB hold out? :shock: ), then bank it Trump® if he's anywhere close to only 6 million votes down.
That's basically my most likely prediction of the final deal. Trump® reselected by the Injustice department. Hopefully senate races will flip it, and it will be the lamest duck that ever ducked, and tossed on it's ear soon. I hate to say it, but, that's what I'm currently banking on as a likely BEST case scenario.
There's too much idiocy down south, too many scared racists, and the problem is, the west coast, which is literally ablaze, will account for his entire advantage, so all these red state orange™ splooge guzzlers, can feel justified that "Trump® won again, suck it libs!"; which is really the only part of his platform relevant to 9 out of 10 of them.
In popularity, a landslide, in reality, a rigged bunch of staged "illegal procedures", by the coverup general, done deal....
I do think in the aftermath, even without 66 senators, will end up much easier grabbing the few needed senators to toss him, or god I hope so anyway....
Problem is, can they deal to toss Pence too? That I doubt, very strongly.....
Clearly, Pence has orange™ baby **** all over his hands and face, but the GOP will protect him, sealing the power in even if they are willing to toss Trump® under a bus once they got all the mileage they could out of him.
This is kinda one of the advantages Biden has right now. He needs to hold the states Clinton got(which does not look really hard), and regain Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin(which is very doable) and he wins. Trump in the meantime has to hold all those states he took last time that look close now, such as Georgia, Florida, Texas. If he loses just one of those, he can't win, so he has to pour a lot of resources into them, while Biden can effectively ignore them for the most part and focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump can lose 37 EVs and still win, as he’d win at 269-269. That could be losing PA, MI, and ME-02. Plenty of combos. D states of NH, MN, and NV were won by a total of only 74k, so there’s definitely that.
AZ was only lost by 91k and McCain’s coattails won that one. Same with Rubio helping Trump in FL, where Trump only won by 113k, whereas Rubio won by 713k.
I don’t see as much ticket-splitting this time in crucial Senate/Potus states, such as NC and AZ. I see this far more explosive than most simply because of Bill Barr and election tampering.
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