Don't panic, backed up by science

[Gimmesometruth]

As has been pointed out, Italy has an older population than we do, many more multi-generational households than we do, a much less robust health care system than we do and lots of Chinese workers in a relatively small geographic area, many of whom come from Wuhan. So, the idea that our death rate will ever approach Italy's, is a specious one.

Northern Italy is the richest region of Italy, yer spit balling.

 

[GreatNews2night]

Italy is locked down and almost 900 died in the last 24 hours.

Italy's deaths of today are of people infected before the lockdown started. Several weeks go by from the moment someone is infected until the moment someone dies. It hasn't peaked there yet, but once if peaks and new infections don't happen because of the lockdown that they have started a couple of weeks ago, then you'll see that their death rate will go down.

This is precisely how China was able to put a lid on it.

 

[swing_voter]

Our mortality rate is 1.4%. Italy's is 8.6%. We'd have to go completely bonkers to ever approach those numbers.

The author of article agrees with you. Italy is not America.

 

[Gimmesometruth]

No kidding. What has that got to do with your claims? I find it instructive that you take the worst case country and then insist that we'll look like that in the end. There is no evidence for that.

No, I did not say "in the end", I said WE ARE ON THE SAME CURVE. Honestly, there is not one single response of yours that every has had anything to do with what I post.

 

[veritas1]

Northern Italy is the richest region of Italy, yer spit balling.

So what? All the points I just made are factual and have an enormous amount to do with why Italy is suffering as they are. They were also rather slow in locking down. It's been a perfect storm.

 

[veritas1]

No, I did not say "in the end", I said WE ARE ON THE SAME CURVE. Honestly, there is not one single response of yours that every has had anything to do with what I post.

Italy's first case was very close in time to ours yet they have 7 times the mortality rate. How that looks like the same curve is rather puzzling.

 

[BlueTex]

As has been pointed out, Italy has an older population than we do, many more multi-generational households than we do, a much less robust health care system than we do and lots of Chinese workers in a relatively small geographic area, many of whom come from Wuhan. So, the idea that our death rate will ever approach Italy's, is a specious one.

Most good points but doesn't change the fact that your comment about time not affecting the mortality rate.. It absolutely does when confronted with a limited supply of medical treatment.

 

[swing_voter]

As has been pointed out, Italy has an older population than we do, many more multi-generational households than we do, a much less robust health care system than we do and lots of Chinese workers in a relatively small geographic area, many of whom come from Wuhan. So, the idea that our death rate will ever approach Italy's, is a specious one.

Another point is Italy is a tourist destination. Infected tourists visited all over Italy, seeding the virus all over the entire country.

In America, tourists don't travel to Podunk Iowa. An infected person will eventually get to Podunk, I'm sure. But Podunk isn't like Italy where hordes of infected tourists are swarming in every nook and cranny.

 

[veritas1]

Another point is Italy is a tourist destination. Infected tourists visited all over Italy, seeding the virus all over the entire country.

In America, tourists don't travel to Podunk Iowa. An infected person will eventually get to Podunk, I'm sure. But Podunk isn't like Italy where hordes of infected tourists are swarming in every nook and cranny.

Exactly.

 

[ecofarm]

People fear what the government will do, not an infection. If they don't let you leave your house, buying toilet paper is sensible.

:lol:

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Italy's first case was very close in time to ours yet they have 7 times the mortality rate. How that looks like the same curve is rather puzzling.

Uh, the context you and Ticks were discussing was limiting exposure, ie, infection...not "mortality".

 

[azgreg]

 

[humbolt]

Italy's first case was very close in time to ours yet they have 7 times the mortality rate. How that looks like the same curve is rather puzzling.

It looks exactly the same if you're wearing these.

 

[CaughtInThe]

Why hasn't Trump listened to the guy in the opinion piece in the OP?

 

[Gimmesometruth]

Another point is Italy is a tourist destination. Infected tourists visited all over Italy, seeding the virus all over the entire country.

In America, tourists don't travel to Podunk Iowa. An infected person will eventually get to Podunk, I'm sure. But Podunk isn't like Italy where hordes of infected tourists are swarming in every nook and cranny.

Uh, N Italy is a high end tech region, with lots of business relations w/ China, that was the vector.

 

[GreatNews2night]

As has been pointed out, Italy has an older population than we do, many more multi-generational households than we do, a much less robust health care system than we do and lots of Chinese workers in a relatively small geographic area, many of whom come from Wuhan. So, the idea that our death rate will ever approach Italy's, is a specious one.

Italy absolutely does NOT have a much less robust health care system than we do. Italy actually has the 2nd best health care system in the world, behind only France, according to multiple ranking sources. I know, not only from stats, indicators, and rankings, and not even only from having lived in Italy, but also from having been a critical patient in Italy, once.

True story:

Same disease, same condition: I was once in Italy when I had one of my acute emergency exacerbations. Within minutes I was rushed to a regional hospital by ambulance, and immediately saw a triage nurse, who said "here's what the doctors will need to do - [explained - very accurately, and then she added] - you need a specialist who is experienced with this kind of care;, let's rush you to a bigger hospital where we have them on call" - the same ambulance took me there to a sparkling modern tertiary hospital and within half an hour I was admitted and not one, not two, but three seasoned, experienced specialists were seeing me, discussing my case, and treating me. They soon fully restored me to health. One of the things that surprised me most was that 3 specialists came to see me within one hour of the start of the symptoms! See below how much harder it was to get 1, in the US!!!

The bill I paid in Italy: zero euros. (I'm entitled to their universal health care by virtue of being a citizen of the European Union who resided in Italy at the time). All I had to do was show my EU passport and resident card. [I am a dual citizen of the United States and of one of the European Union countries]

Same disease, same condition in the US: I went to the ER, saw a clerk who said I'd be seen "as soon as possible" (not before endless questions and forms to make sure I had private health insurance although I was obviously in pain). Was in agony in the waiting room, two hours later a triage nurse saw me, said, "yep, the situation is serious, the doctor will see you." Knowing my own case well I inquired about a couple of courses of action, she said "I don't know, I don't get paid the big bucks, you'll have to ask the doctor, go back to the waiting room and we'll call you." I asked, "do you have a specialist for this condition?" "No, but the ER doctor will see you." Two more hours later, still not seen, I got frustrated and went back home, and tried to call a specialist. 12 attempts later nobody wanted to see me until one finally accepted to see me but could only do it two days later. I spent 2 more miserable days, and finally the specialist saw me and did get the situation solved, similarly to what they did in Italy (just, it was much faster and much more efficiently done over there).

The bill I paid in the United States: several thousand dollars even with insurance.

Anyway, don't underestimate Italy's outstanding health care system, but yes, with the rapid rate of contagion and several deaths in their aging population there, sure, they got overwhelmed. Do you know why they have so many old people there? Because they reach that old age still alive and kicking, thanks to their excellent health care system available to every citizen, and thanks to their healthier life style (Mediterranean diet, much more walking, smaller obesity rate, etc.).

This disease will overwhelm us here too, if we don't implement containment measures.

 

[swing_voter]

Italy absolutely does NOT have a much less robust health care system than we do. Italy actually has the 2nd best health care system in the world, behind only France, according to multiple ranking sources. I know, not only from stats, indicators, and rankings, and not even only from having lived in Italy, but also from having been a critical patient in Italy, once.

True story:

Same disease, same condition: I was once in Italy when I had one of my acute emergency exacerbations. Within minutes I was rushed to a regional hospital by ambulance, and immediately saw a triage nurse, who said "here's what the doctors will need to do - [explained - very accurately, and then she added] - you need a specialist who is experienced with this kind of care;, let's rush you to a bigger hospital where we have them on call" - the same ambulance took me there to a sparkling modern tertiary hospital and within half an hour I was admitted and not one, not two, but three seasoned, experienced specialists were seeing me, discussing my case, and treating me. They soon fully restored me to health. One of the things that surprised me most was that 3 specialists came to see me within one hour of the start of the symptoms! See below how much harder it was to get 1, in the US!!!

The bill I paid in Italy: zero euros. (I'm entitled to their universal health care by virtue of being a citizen of the European Union who resided in Italy at the time). All I had to do was show my EU passport and resident card. [I am a dual citizen of the United States and of one of the European Union countries]

Same disease, same condition in the US: I went to the ER, saw a clerk who said I'd be seen "as soon as possible" (not before endless questions and forms to make sure I had private health insurance although I was obviously in pain). Was in agony in the waiting room, two hours later a triage nurse saw me, said, "yep, the situation is serious, the doctor will see you." Knowing my own case well I inquired about a couple of courses of action, she said "I don't know, I don't get paid the big bucks, you'll have to ask the doctor, go back to the waiting room and we'll call you." I asked, "do you have a specialist for this condition?" "No, but the ER doctor will see you." Two more hours later, still not seen, I got frustrated and went back home, and tried to call a specialist. 12 attempts later nobody wanted to see me until one finally accepted to see me but could only do it two days later. I spent 2 more miserable days, and finally the specialist saw me and did get the situation solved, similarly to what they did in Italy (just, it was much faster and much more efficiently done over there).

The bill I paid in the United States: several thousand dollars even with insurance.

Anyway, don't underestimate Italy's outstanding health care system, but yes, with the rapid rate of contagion and several deaths in their aging population there, sure, they got overwhelmed. Do you know why they have so many old people there? Because they reach that old age still alive and kicking, thanks to their excellent health care system available to every citizen, and thanks to their healthier life style (Mediterranean diet, much more walking, smaller obesity rate, etc.).

This disease will overwhelm us here too, if we don't implement containment measures.

He means fewer respirators per million citizens.

America does respirators very well.

 

[Slavister]

Italy is locked down and almost 900 died in the last 24 hours.

That's because it takes many days for virus to go from infection to first symptoms to deaths. From beginning to end it takes roughly 3 weeks. They were NOT shutdown 3 weeks ago.

 

[Redress]

(crap, I forgot to post this in the virus forum.)

Moderator's Warning:

Problem solved.

 

[Rogue Valley]

(crap, I forgot to post this in the virus forum.)






It's a very optimistic view of the epidemic and it's backed up with science.

Do you believe the author is correct?

Anyone can publish @ Medium.

This morning I posted a Medium article that says the opposite of your article.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

I think I'll follow the precepts put forth in my posted Medium article.

 

[swing_voter]

Uh, the context you and Ticks were discussing was limiting exposure, ie, infection...not "mortality".

The author of the article goes over this chart as well.

Japan is low. Why? He says it's because they aren't testing as much. That makes sense.

 

[trixare4kids]

Italy's first case was very close in time to ours yet they have 7 times the mortality rate. How that looks like the same curve is rather puzzling.

Do you have something that proves this so some posters stop arguing just to argue?
TIA

 

[trixare4kids]

That's because it takes many days for virus to go from infection to first symptoms to deaths. From beginning to end it takes roughly 3 weeks. They were NOT shutdown 3 weeks ago.

The world can learn from Italy's mistakes.

The tragedy of Italy now stands as a warning to its European neighbors and the United States, where the virus is coming with equal velocity. If Italy’s experience shows anything, it is that measures to isolate affected areas and limit the movement of the broader population need to be taken early, put in place with absolute clarity, then strictly enforced.

Despite now having some of the toughest measures in the world, Italian authorities fumbled many of those steps early in the contagion — when it most mattered as they sought to preserve basic civil liberties as well as the economy.

Italy’s piecemeal attempts to cut it off — isolating towns first, then regions, then shutting down the country in an intentionally porous lockdown — always lagged behind the virus’s lethal trajectory.

Now they are running after the virus.

Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World - The New York Times

 

[Gimmesometruth]

The author of the article goes over this chart as well.

Japan is low. Why? He says it's because they aren't testing as much. That makes sense.

He stupidly thinks he can minimze the severity of the growth of reported cases.....by dividing the number by total population. That is meaningless since the entire population has not been exposed. The whole point of tracking growth is to show if the efforts to LIMIT exposure are working.

PS, I limited my discussion to the US and Italy, ie, the curve.

 

[GreatNews2night]

He means fewer respirators per million citizens.

America does respirators very well.

Really? We only have 65,000 ventilators, and 13,000 in strategic stock. I think we'll run out way worse than Italy.