no way, in first super tuesday, Trump drew obama sized crowds to vote, while hillary pulled romney style crowds. The polls are all wackadoo... you have several factors.
1. the super tuesday turnout I just mentioned.
Which is anecdotal. < Data
2. depressed democrats
3. the "bernback" when she gets the nod
both of which dissipates approximately a third of a second after Trump gets the nod. He is the only GOP candidate that can GOTV for Hillary like that.
4. People who are telling people they wont vote for trump but will (I think this is a larger crowd than you think)
I think it's a significant crowd. If I had to guess, I'd say that, of the 37% who polled that way last night, somewhere between one-half and two-thirds would pull the lever for Trump. Maybe. 10% of the Republican Party saying "**** this guy", however, cripples a candidate.
you are forgetting
1. All of Clinton's negatives are already baked in. Trump's are not (in fact, they are generally not as widely known).
2. Trump only recently faced
any negative press or advertisements. The Clintons are going to drop a
$Billion in that on him between July and November.
3. Trump's extremely high unfavorables militate against him being able to take those numbers and dramatically alter them.
A major exogenous event (something like Desert One in 1980, or the market meltdown in 2008) could still swing the race. But at this point, there is nothing that indicates anything other than a nice, solid, Hillary victory in November over Donald Trump. Anything that runs off the data with a "but what if!" is magical thinking.
these polls are insane for clinton, but who here knows anyone that is THAT for clinton.
Nope. But they are that THAT against Trump. If necessary, I'll get myself blinding drunk, go vote Hillary, and then take a day of leave so I can spend 24 hours showering, after.
Take a look at how well Bush did (40%) versus how well Romney did (25%) with Hispanics, for example. As yourself how well Trump is going to do with his
12% (which, again, is the number
before a billion dollars in negative ads get dropped on him, aimed at those communities). Trump is going to lock Hispanics into the Democrat party like African Americans already are.