China may send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan after US troops leave, observers say

[TU Curmudgeon]

If the US allows China to move into Afghanistan that will be one of the worst strategic moves the US has allowed. Of course it's not the US it's Joe Biden the idiot.

And "keeping the US mired in the swamp" is one of the better strategic moves that the PRC can make - ESPECIALLY if doing so further divides that American people.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

If Afghanistan descends into chaos again, I can see Russia invading and occupying the place. They did it once before.

I never thought China would have military interests in the area.

If they do occupy Afghanistan, this will put China in opposition with Pakistan and Iran who also have interests in Afghanistan.

First point - the Russians were "invited" into Afghanistan (to help quell the actions of the war lords) by the legal Afghan government.

Second point - the Chinese probably do NOT "have military interests in the area", but do have some interest in keeping the US mired in a war that divides the American people.

Third point - strangely enough both Pakistan and Iran are edging towards being Chinese "client states". When you are a "client state" then you have a large tendency to subordinate your interests to those of "The Boss". If you don't believe me, just take a look at South America.

 

[Hatuey]

It is the cost of putting your hand in the cookie jar. There is a better way for CCP to achieve that. Also, those "untapped minerals" are not CCP's top priority.

Okay, so you've shifted from Afghanistan being valueless to what China's priorities are.

I dont think you had an argument other than to shit on some goat herders on the other side of the world.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Afghanistan boarders China, and has been a smuggling route for Islamic extremists leaving China to fight in places like Syria, Iraq and of course Afghanistan. China of course would like to have that stopped as it would not want those extremists coming back to China. So having a force in eastern Afghanistan that works on patrolling movements could work in that case.

Iran is mainly interested in the Herat area and the Shia population of Afghanistan which would not be impacted by a Chinese force in eastern Afghanistan

Pakistan would not have much of an issue with China being in eastern Afghanistan as long as it had the primary influence on the Afghanistan government. Better China in Eastern Afghanistan than the US or India from a Pakistan viewpoint

The total length of the border between China and Afghanistan is 47 miles (248,160 feet). The PLA has 2,035,000 active duty personnel and 510,000 reserve personnel. That means that, if you stationed one person every three feet, the PLA could line its people up at arms length from each other 30 deep along the entire China/Afghanistan border. Of course 30 deep WOULD be a bit of over kill and five deep on a 50% stand to would do the trick quite nicely. And, of course, a three foot separation would also be a bit of an over kill and six feet would do the job nicely. That means that the Chinese have roughly 10 times the manpower required to completely close the China/Afghanistan border - even if they are only armed with baseball bats.

You are very likely correct about Iran.

Pakistan will do what it always does and do whatever its current "Best Buddy" -tells- pays it to do.​

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Okay, so you've shifted from Afghanistan being valueless to what China's priorities are.

I dont think you had an argument other than to shit on some goat herders on the other side of the world.

"Valueless" sort of depends on what one wants. If the Chinese do not want the Afghan natural resources, then that decreases the "value" of those resources - as far as the Chinese are concerned.

Mind you, if the Chinese don't want the resources but do want to deny them to others that increases the "value" of those resources - as far as the Chinese are concerned.

 

[366h34d]

"Valueless" sort of depends on what one wants. If the Chinese do not want the Afghan natural resources, then that decreases the "value" of those resources - as far as the Chinese are concerned.

Mind you, if the Chinese don't want the resources but do want to deny them to others that increases the "value" of those resources - as far as the Chinese are concerned.

You are damn right in the first point. In term of the second pt, CCP also see that it is troublesome for them to "guard" the resources for the future now. Also, CCP know it is not a walk in the park to have the resources, so they are happy to see the western countries kicking themselves now. In the end, we all know CCP have their ways with 3rd world counties (Africa, and southern Asia ). In fact, if CCP send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan, it will be Afghanistan gov't asks them to send or under Sri Lanka model.

 

[Tigerace117]

The US war on terror was the best thing for China since sliced pork.


A massive strategic error that occupied the US for nearly 20 years and accomplished nothing. Costing hundreds of billions of dollars and untold amounts of human suffering

PRC apologists trying to condemn anyone else over “human suffering” is almost laughably hypocritical.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You are damn right in the first point. In term of the second pt, CCP also see that it is troublesome for them to "guard" the resources for the future now. Also, CCP know it is not a walk in the park to have the resources, so they are happy to see the western countries kicking themselves now. In the end, we all know CCP have their ways with 3rd world counties (Africa, and southern Asia ). In fact, if CCP send peacekeeping force to Afghanistan, it will be Afghanistan gov't asks them to send or under Sri Lanka model.

The US would have just of a bit of difficulty in executing the volte face required in order to take objection to the US installed and backed legal government of the independent and sovereign state of Afghanistan asking the government of the PRC to

"provide the assistance that the United States of America is no longer providing to assure the continuation of the lawful government of Afghanistan and to assist that lawful government in restoring peace, order, domestic tranquility, and good government to all parts of Afghanistan in the best interests of the Afghan people".​

which, or in highly similar wording, would be how the request was phased.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

PRC apologists trying to condemn anyone else over “human suffering” is almost laughably hypocritical.

You don't appear to quite understand how (to the PRC) "harming the PRC's opponents" is a "Good Thing" - even if the opponents are "Good Guys" and are "On The Side Of The Angels".

 

[swing_voter]

Afghanistan is said to be the Graveyard of Empires.

It may be somebody's wet dream to see the Chinese deploy their military in Afghanistan and get bogged down there in a quagmire.
But the Chinese would never do that. Instead they'll just get their flunky Pakistan to yank on Taliban's leash.

Make no mistake, Pakistan controls the Taliban. They control the violence in Afghanistan, and can turn it on and off at will.

"Afghanistan is said to be the Graveyard of Empires."

There's nothing valuable enough in Afghanistan for empires to stay. You can't even grow food there very well.


.

 

[Tigerace117]

You don't appear to quite understand how (to the PRC) "harming the PRC's opponents" is a "Good Thing" - even if the opponents are "Good Guys" and are "On The Side Of The Angels".

You don’t appear to understand that the simple, objective fact is that the PRC has killed more people than just about any three other countries put together..... not to mention the ongoing genocide in Xinjiang

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

You don’t appear to understand that the simple, objective fact is that the PRC has killed more people than just about any three other countries put together..... not to mention the ongoing genocide in Xinjiang

Since that fact is totally irrelevant to analyzing what the strategic thinking of the PRC is in order to determine what the government of the PRC is likely to be doing, I'll take that as your concession.

 

[Tigerace117]

Since that fact is totally irrelevant to analyzing what the strategic thinking of the PRC is in order to determine what the government of the PRC is likely to be doing, I'll take that as your concession.

Oh, I think it’s entirely relevant. The PRC has already shown its “strategic thinking” to have been subordinated to brutal domestic crackdowns......for example, in Hong Kong.

 

[Mr. Invisible]

No, they won't.

This has been a fantasy among observers and analysts for years now, along with the dreams that India will take up the peacekeeping mantle. China will not get involved in Afghanistan anywhere near the level that ISAF or NATO was.

Exactly! I seriously doubt that the Chinese will send anyone to Afghanistan. It just doesn't make sense for them to do so.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Oh, I think it’s entirely relevant. The PRC has already shown its “strategic thinking” to have been subordinated to brutal domestic crackdowns......for example, in Hong Kong.

I realize that YOU think that "it's entirely relevant". In fact, it's rather obvious that you are obsessed with it.

Fortunately you aren't in "the trade" and aren't involved in America's strategic planning or interpreting what the actions of other countries ACTUALLY mean.

 

[Tigerace117]

I realize that YOU think that "it's entirely relevant". In fact, it's rather obvious that you are obsessed with it.

Fortunately you aren't in "the trade" and aren't involved in America's strategic planning or interpreting what the actions of other countries ACTUALLY mean.

The Chinese government has repeatedly alienated its neighbors with its temper tantrums over their opposition to the ongoing genocide in Xinjiang or the crackdown in Hong Kong.

“Wolf Warrior” diplomacy is a flop

 

[Phys251]

I was surprised to read that we only have 2,500 troops left over there. That wouldn't even make a good rally for the former. Bring 'em home and let the Chinese send their 25,000 troops there to keep the peace. Maybe it will be 250,000 Chinese troops. They dwarf us in population.

trumpers make it sound like that that's enough to keep Afghanistan from falling back into the Dark Ages. As if much of rural Afghanistan weren't there already.

At least this is going to be China's problem now.

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

trumpers make it sound like that that's enough to keep Afghanistan from falling back into the Dark Ages. As if much of rural Afghanistan weren't there already.

At least this is going to be China's problem now.

When you have a geographic area that HAS NO EFFECTIVE central government and where there IS NO EFFECTIVE national infrastructure and where the populace HAS NO EFFECTIVE attachment beyond immediate family/clan/tribe and where a local strongman is the only thing standing between the unorganized bandits who rob with no regard to whether they will ever return and himself (who robs in an organized manner knowing that he will be returning to rob again), you do tend to get a pretty archaic social organization - it's almost "fractionalized feudalism"

 

[pamak]

Is China trolling the US or is it that they have not got the memo yet?

20210416edptc-a.tif - Tribune Content Agency (April 16, 2021)

PETT; AFGHANISTAN WAR

tribunecontentagency.com

 

[TU Curmudgeon]

Is China trolling the US or is it that they have not got the memo yet?

20210416edptc-a.tif - Tribune Content Agency (April 16, 2021)

PETT; AFGHANISTAN WAR

tribunecontentagency.com

If I was still working I'd be saying something like

What the Chinese are trying to do is to stir up the uneducated and uninformed in the US so that they will DEMAND that the US government stay in Afghanistan to "prevent a Communist take over". The Chinese are highly unlikely to actually intend sending anything that looks like a military combat mission to Afghanistan because they simply don't need the aggravation of "Afghan freedom fighting patriots" (who would most likely be on the payroll of SOME American intelligence agency [and might not have even been in Afghanistan for decades]) spouting off in the US media about "Chinese atrocities". Based on past performance, they have a good chance of success and that will mean that Afghanistan will continue to be a running sore in America's side for several more years.

America is NOT likely to be successful in promoting an honest, competent, democratically selected (through honest elections) and generally accepted national government in Afghanistan - mostly because the real power brokers in Afghanistan simply don't want on. As long as America keeps on pretending that that is what it is trying to accomplish in Afghanistan, and as long as American is not successful, America "loses" and China "wins".​

 

[TomFitz]

China was doing something about North Korea. So was Russia:

- On 30 March 2010, President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree implementing intensified United Nations Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang's nuclear programs.

- In December 2013 Russia joined the sanctions against North Korea, introduced in March by the UN Security Council (Resolution 2087).

-In December 2016, Resolution 2321, passed and capped North Korea's coal exports and banned exports of copper, nickel, zinc, and silver. In February 2017, a UN panel said that 116 of 193 member states had not yet submitted a report on their implementation of these sanctions, though China had.

- In February 2017, China banned all imports of coal from North Korea for the rest of that year. China also banned exports of some petroleum products and imports of textiles from North Korea in line with United Nations resolutions. This certainly played its part in North Korea's lashing out for the year. In April 2017, North Korea began what would be a total of seventeen launches while Trump instigated and played Twitter games with Kim.

- In October 2017 Vladimir Putin signed Presidential decree No. 484 "On measures to implement UN Security Council resolution 2321 of November 30, 2016" imposing sanctions on North Korea in connection with the adoption of UN Security Council resolution 2321 of 30 November 2016.


THEN.......


*** In January 2018, Trump's trade war crusade against China and constant denigration began.

*** In June 2019, both China and Russia blocked UN efforts to declare that North Korea was violating oil caps.

*** In December 2019, China and Russia proposed the U.N. Security Council lift a ban on North Korea exporting statues, seafood and textiles, in a move Russia said is aimed at encouraging talks between Washington and Pyongyang.

*** By late 2020, China was being accused of helping North Korea evade UN sanctions.

Seems odd for Russia and China to "encourage" successful talks when our Allies stuck with us and held to the sanctions. Some might easily argue that Trump's trade-war crusade, starting in January 2018, and constant denigration of China, wrecked their support against North Korea, which is absolutely needed. Then came his constant beratement over COVID as a scapegoat for his own poor leadership. And with China shoving it in Trump's face, Russia saw opportunity to push its own agenda to antagonize and thwart American efforts in the world. And Russia, having much of its foreign policy pandered to, pushed their other policy of helping China usurp America and the West on the world stage.

This is the crap I mean when I say that Trump worked against America's interests. At one point, we had Iran locked down, and China/Russia working with us against North Korea. Then came the orange idiot to play reality TV with the White House. Now where are we? Iran has an open door to a nuke. Iran was pushed closer to China's orbit, which now has direct access into the greater Middle East for oil and an extension of their new Silk Road. Iran, China, and Russia have unobstructed geoeconomic and political influence straight to Israel's border and to the Mediterranean Sea. Every single Cold War President would roll over in their graves if they knew what a mess this douche made of things in such a short period of time.

I doubt that Trump was even made aware. It’s not like he could have found any of those countries on a map.

As long as he could hug a flag in front of a TV camera and get back to the White House to see himself on Fox, he was happy.

 

[snakestretcher]

Now the Afghanis will experience life under China's thumb.

And they'll see-off yet another invader just as they dealt with the British, the USSR and American interlopers. After 20 years' occupation NATO achieved precisely nothing in Afghanistan. Seems the lessons of history went unheeded.

 

[PoS]

Now the Afghanis will experience life under China's thumb.

LOL if the Chinese are actually dumb enough to send their military into Afghanistan, they will run back to China with their tails tucked between their legs after a few years.

 

[snakestretcher]

LOL if the Chinese are actually dumb enough to send their military into Afghanistan, they will run back to China with their tails tucked between their legs after a few years.

Probably; and just as every other invader has done since the time of Alexander the Great. Curiously the Afghan people don't like their nation being invaded by foreigners.

 

[MSgt]

I doubt that Trump was even made aware. It’s not like he could have found any of those countries on a map.

As long as he could hug a flag in front of a TV camera and get back to the White House to see himself on Fox, he was happy.

It made his total psychological meltdown between November and February, and the way they all turned on each other in the end, that much more sweeter.