iPod is a pretty big deal too.
condos in bejing are reported to be selling for 17 times the average annual salary of a chinese worker
would not be surprised is a massive real estate bubble is also looming on china's horizon
As for Apple it is trading around 21 times trailing earnings which is generally reasonable for a growth stock. The question one has to ask is Apple going to continue to be a growth stock or will its sales growth flatten out. If its sales growth flattens out, its stock should decline to around 10-14 times trailing earning to account for risk. That would cause a 33-50% decline in the share price
If you know so much more about the true value of Apple than the rest of the market, why not short the stock?
Well.. the problem is smart phones can do what the IPod does (heck most phones these days).. Sales of Ipods and similar devices have been falling for years. That is why Apple is trying to rebrand the Ipod as a "gaming machine", which so far is failing... was not exactly positive PR when Steve Jobs made up sales statistics by claiming Ipod outsold all other portable gaming consoles..
Only thing I see as a positive (big one) for Apple is the ITunes store. There aint much dedicated competition out there yet for that.
My point is that the market seems to value things out of the air these days.. more on feelings than actual fact..
I made the same mistake. Why would people want an IPod when there are cheaper MP3 players out there. A billion downloads later it seems the Ipod has won out. Apple is a great marketing machine as well as tech company. I am not sure how you define bubble a couple of weeks ago it was 240 now it is 292. So a pullback probably makes sense. Not sure if that will happen before year end. Fund managers jump into stocks for window dressing. So unless there is a big market falloff, for the next few days it should do well. This may give it momentum into the end of year.
Would be silly since the market seems to like Apple regardless of the actual facts on the table. I mean, if another company came out with a defective product that they knew was defective beforehand then they would be slaughtered by the market.. but not Apple... it was rewarded.
Apple does have its detractors, mainly among those who doubt that Apple's 'creativity machine' can continue to produce winners ad infinitum concomitant with a slowing earnings growth rate.
You said that Apple is a bubble. By definition, a bubble is something that is overinflated and will eventually pop. How exactly would shorting that be silly?
If the market loves Apple so much that it will never pop, then it's not a bubble.
It's marketing seems to be dependant on Steve Jobs, or at least consumer desirable inovation does. When he left the first time Apple was on the ropes, when he came back so did Apple, it will be interesting to see if Apple can this time continue strong product development when Job does leave
Actually, Apple tops the PC market because it has total control over it's product and isn't beholden to Microsoft's OS platform for development, innovation or interlinked products and software. Which means Steve Jobs owns almost all the patents to his products and that alone is oftern where the big bucks in business comes from. Apple also has it's own retail stores worldwide, which other PC manufacturers don't have. Apparently the stores are doing very well and serve as a model that many other businesses are now trying to follow. Also one of Apples largest shareholders is Disney who almost exclusively uses Mac for all their animation and their corporate offices, and Steve Jobs is on the board of Directors at Pixar which is also affiliated with Disney and they too use Mac. I think it's about quality and Apple from the very beginning went for quality over quantity. And let me tell ya, working on a Mac to do art is dream compared to a PC. So I think you are really underestimating Apple's business sauvy and products.Apple tops PetroChina in market capitalization - Yahoo! News
Been following the "rise" of Apple stock for years now, and frankly one has to ask.. why? How can it be that Apple is more valuable than say Mircosoft, or even HTC and others?
If we base it on actual fact and trends, then it makes even less sense.
Apple is already loosing out in the smart phone market to google. Latest statistics see Apple decline in % and Google Andriod jump past Apple into second place after Symbian OS (Nokia), both world wide in the key US market. With Microsoft coming out with a new OS with-in weeks and the continuous expansion of Android, then the IPhone and IPhone OS seems... stale to say the least.
Apple has never and will never have a big market share of the PC market. Microsoft has sat on a huge share here for the last 30 years and that wont change at least not during the next 5 years. Apple is atm going good on the Ipad, but question is how long that will last with the competition sending out better products very soon. When consumers can get a "Ipad" clone with camera and phone possibilities (non US only sorry), and more stuff in, then the IPad could head down the same road as the Iphone. And lets not forget.. still no Flash on IPad.
So the question is why does the market think that Apple is valued more than PetroChina (briefly so far)? Can we say big bubble?
The portrayal of technology companies, on the other hand, was generally positive. For Apple, the most heavily covered technology company, 42% of the stories described the company as innovative and superior, and another 27% lauded its loyal fan base. But there were doubts. The most common such negative thread, that Apple products don’t live up to the hype, appeared in 17% of stories about Apple. For Google, the company’s advancements in making content easier to find topped its coverage at 25%. But it was only half as likely as Apple to be framed as having superior, innovative products (20%).
Actually, Apple tops the PC market because it has total control over it's product and isn't beholden to Microsoft's OS platform for development, innovation or interlinked products and software. Which means Steve Jobs owns almost all the patents to his products and that alone is oftern where the big bucks in business comes from.
Apple also has it's own retail stores worldwide, which other PC manufacturers don't have.
Apparently the stores are doing very well and serve as a model that many other businesses are now trying to follow.
Also one of Apples largest shareholders is Disney who almost exclusively uses Mac for all their animation and their corporate offices, and Steve Jobs is on the board of Directors at Pixar which is also affiliated with Disney and they too use Mac.
I think it's about quality and Apple from the very beginning went for quality over quantity.
And let me tell ya, working on a Mac to do art is dream compared to a PC
So I think you are really underestimating Apple's business sauvy and products.
Apples independence from Microsoft allows it to capitalize on it's own patented products whereas other PCs are beholden to Microsofts patents. As I said before, patents are where the money is. Surely you are aware of all those years of patent litigation of smaller companies with Microsoft trying to monopolize the industry and kill off their competition?Err no.. Apple has less than 5% of the world market. It is a closed system that allows very LITTLE innovation on new programs, and until recently Apple refused other PC makers to build Apple machines. That they were forced to accept that others could make Apple PCs was pure survival and were forced to go away from their own chips to Intel.
But there is a major difference in the quality of the graphics and if graphics is the business you are in, then a Mac is the preferable choice. And since it's a tax write off for businesses they can afford the higher cost.And the price is also much higher. For the money of the cheapest Apple PC, I can get a very very good normal PC. Cheapest Apple machine over 1000 dollars.. for 1000 dollars you can get a PC with much higher specs than the cheapest Apple PC.
They have over 300 retail stores, which is 300 more than any other PC company has. I provided a link in my post above and you are more than welcome to read it if you care to.And you can of course give examples of this...
Well, thats probably true but Apple has a higher share of high end users and it is Linux compatible for those that have a deep hatred for Microsoft and there are many.And so what, the rest of the corporate world uses Windows PCs and Linux servers..
Well they must doing something right to have a 22% to 36% increase in market share since 2005....Yes at the start of the PC ... like 20+ years ago. Now days.. not so much.
Figures from December 2006, showing a market share around 6 percent (IDC) and 6.1 percent (Gartner) are based on a more than 30 percent increase in unit sale from 2005 to 2006. The installed base of Mac computers is hard to determine, with numbers ranging from 5% (estimated in 2009)[116] to 16% (estimated in 2005).[117] Mac OS X’s share of the OS market increased from 7.31% in December 2007 to 9.63% in December 2008, which is a 32% increase in market share during 2008, compared to a 22% increase during 2007.
Macintosh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It's been awhile since I used a Mac, but the graphics were definitely better and the third party software such as Maya was customizable for the Mac.Well that is a tad hard to believe. First off, it is not Windows that does "art" but a 3rd party program. Secondly, these 3rd party programs are made for both platforms for the most part.
LOL don't get mad. You seem kind of bitter that Apple is finally doing better.No I am not.. you are overestimating Apple, like everyone else.
For the seventh straight year, Apple has topped its competitors in the PC industry in the University of Michigan's American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI), achieving a score of 86 out of 100. Its Apple's highest ranking since the annual survey began in 1995.
But the real story is how much further ahead of its peers Apple is in this area: most of the rest of the field (Acer, Dell, HP, and others) is tied with a score of 77, while HP's Compaq brand is ranked 74....
Secrets of Apple's customer success - CNN.com
PeteEU said:Fact is, Apple is no more innovative than other companies.
Disagree to a modest degree. Apple has been quite innovative in several respects:
> user interface: Back when the Microsoft world was trying to get Windows right, going all the way back to Windows 3, Apple jumped way ahead with its version of a graphical user interface (otherwise known as a 'GUI'). It took the Microsoft world a number of years and numerous iterations of Windows just to get close to Apple's smooth, much more seamless GUI.
> integration: likewise with program and system integration. It took the Microsoft world years to catch up to Apples much, much better integration of operating system with applications. Only the marketing muscle of Microsoft with respect to capturing the OEM market made Office the application suite that it is today; that muscle provided Microsoft the cash flow with which to continue development of features and usability and surpass Apple's earlier efforts at an integrated office application. Apples earlier versions of word processing and (especially) graphics apps were far and away superior to any others at the time. Many hold that Apples graphics apps remain superior today.
> security: Microsoft has played a continual game of catch-up. For years, Apple security was far superior to that of Microsoft.
Notice that I have described Apples PC advantages in historical terms. That's because their advantages have gradually slipped over time as Microsoft's huge cash flow has powered their development, mostly playing catch-up to Apple in the key respects noted above. Which they have mostly, but not completely, done.
With more recent non-PC products, it has not been solely Apples technical innovations that have powered Apple. As you noted, some aspects of the iPhone are quite lacking (I have both an iPhone and a Blackberry, the battery on the iPhone is very inferior to that of my Blackberry). So where has Apple succeeded with the iPhone? Integration with other systems and apps. Same with the iPod. If the iPad is successful, it will most likely be the same. The genius of combining the iPod with iTunes and Podcasts, of opening the iPhone to app developers...the combination of these integration efforts have, with a modicum of engineering success and huge stying and marketing successes, enabled the users of these devices to take their experience to levels of which Microsoft can only be envious.
Apples independence from Microsoft allows it to capitalize on it's own patented products whereas other PCs are beholden to Microsofts patents. As I said before, patents are where the money is. Surely you are aware of all those years of patent litigation of smaller companies with Microsoft trying to monopolize the industry and kill off their competition?
But there is a major difference in the quality of the graphics and if graphics is the business you are in, then a Mac is the preferable choice. And since it's a tax write off for businesses they can afford the higher cost.
They have over 300 retail stores, which is 300 more than any other PC company has. I provided a link in my post above and you are more than welcome to read it if you care to.
Well, thats probably true but Apple has a higher share of high end users and it is Linux compatible for those that have a deep hatred for Microsoft and there are many.
Well they must doing something right to have a 22% to 36% increase in market share since 2005....
It's been awhile since I used a Mac, but the graphics were definitely better and the third party software such as Maya was customizable for the Mac.
LOL don't get mad. You seem kind of bitter that Apple is finally doing better.
Apparently, Apple is rated better in consumer satisfaction than other PCs and that is important to know when buying a new computer. Some people will spend the extra money just to get the better customer service and avoid the repairs and problems...
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