As Trump dithers over Ukraine, Russia’s military edge weakens, officials say

[j brown's body]

I can look at a map. Russia has control of the four Oblasts they've taken over and their defenses are pretty impressive. Tactically, we are looking at the Western Front in WW1 after 1915 or the Korean War after 1951, when the conflicts ground down to stalemates.


While the Ukrainians did a pretty good job blunting the initial attack, their subsequent offensives have made little progress no matter how much money we threw at them.


You mean the same Europeans who can't spend 2% of their GDP on defense.



Which is why both sides need to be brought to the table.



They don't really have a lot of choice. Less if Trump and the Republicans just cut off the gravy train.



They might if offered reasonable concessions, such as a redrawn border and re-integration into the economic community.



I know that any nation can be pushed too far and act irrationally if they feel sufficiently threatened.



I;m sure Zelenskyy will fight to the last man, but eventually he'll run out of men.


..Again- the same EU that can't be bothered to spend 2% of GDP on defense?




Not at all, I recognize reality. There isn't going to be a military solution here, so we need to find a diplomatic one.



Takes away from the fact Russia DID have legitimate issues when this started. Crimea and Donbass are predominantly Russian areas that were assigned to Ukraine by Khrushev. There was initial harmony when the ethnic Russians in Ukraine felt they were being represented, but after the Maidan Revolution of 2014, that went right out the window.

While Trump's claim that "Ukraine started the war" is indeed silly, the fact was Zelenskyy did try to crush the Donbass militarily in violation of the agreement Ukraine signed at Minsk.



Not really pro-Russian. I just don't see any point in throwing good money after bad.

If Richard Nixon was in the White House, he'd have negotiated a peace deal. Sadly, we have Trump in there.

So, all the pearl-clutching aside, what would a reasonable agreement look like?

A redrawing of the border to reflect the ethnicity of the region would be a good start.
Security guarantees for Ukraine. Perhaps even NATO membership and definitely EU membership.

Everyone gets something they want; everyone goes home a little disappointed.
That's what a good deal looks like.

Continuing the war until Ukraine is ground down to a bloody pulp, not seeing how that benefits anyone.

So, how exactly does Ukraine defeat Russia?

Isolate and destroy Russian ground forces in Ukraine by attacking their ability to sustain their army and their ability to wage war. This will create siege warfare-like conditions for Russian ground forces in the close fight. They will be left eventually to wither on the vine, vulnerable to defeat by a decisive combined arms offensive.

...This would involve three phases. First comes the destruction of Russia’s deep strike capability. A no-fly zone over Ukraine would protect civilians being targeted by Russian ballistic missiles and drones. European countries have already put forth an initiative called Sky Shield, the deployment of 120 fighter jets as part of a European air force to protect Kyiv and western Ukraine. Ukraine would also need the air defense systems and munitions to create an integrated, layered air defense belt like the one Israel employed to defeat the Iranian attacks in April and October 2024.

...Phase two starts with turning back on the flow of weapons, munitions and intelligence to Ukraine, reactivating the logistical throughput of military aid from the Rzeszów-Jasionka airport in Poland is mission critical.

...Phase three is the decisive push of Russian forces out of Ukraine. Once the conditions have been set, a combined arms offensive including close air support can be launched, driving Russian forces from the occupied territories just when Russia is at its weakest."

Link

 

[Allan]

It puts Trump in the paradoxical position of needing to wage war in order to win that Nobel Noble Peace Prize.

FIFY

 

[JoeB131]

Yep, he's not listening--not to Ukrainians, and not to people who are actually following the war.

Another wasted conversation.

What is there to listen to?

"We want to keep a war going forever on your dime!"

Has to be a certain point where you realize the "Sunk Cost Fallacy" applies.

We've invested all this money, time, lives, effort in something and therefore we shouldn't give up now.

It's called, "Throwing good money after bad."

When this ends, Ukraine will lose territory.

How much territory depends on how reasonable people are willing to be.

Biden never should have wrote Zelenskyy a blank check. Blank checks never work out well. (See Austria-Hungary 1914, Poland 1939)

 

[Yakshi]

What is there to listen to?

"We want to keep a war going forever on your dime!"

Has to be a certain point where you realize the "Sunk Cost Fallacy" applies.

We've invested all this money, time, lives, effort in something and therefore we shouldn't give up now.

It's called, "Throwing good money after bad."

When this ends, Ukraine will lose territory.

How much territory depends on how reasonable people are willing to be.

Biden never should have wrote Zelenskyy a blank check. Blank checks never work out well. (See Austria-Hungary 1914, Poland 1939)

Nothing, apparently.

It's all the same irrelevant pro-russian stuff from a new name.

 

[JoeB131]

Wow, you are going to keep repeating this stuff until someone pays attention, eh?

So, how exactly does Ukraine defeat Russia?

Isolate and destroy Russian ground forces in Ukraine by attacking their ability to sustain their army and their ability to wage war. This will create siege warfare-like conditions for Russian ground forces in the close fight. They will be left eventually to wither on the vine, vulnerable to defeat by a decisive combined arms offensive.

Uh, yeah, here's the problem with that. Russia has 142 Million people. Ukraine has only 43 million, 19% of whom are Russians and probably want Putin to win. Zelenskyy is running out of men. He's had 800K casualties (injured or killed) Russia has had nearly a million. But Russia can absorb the casualties, Ukraine can't.

...This would involve three phases. First comes the destruction of Russia’s deep strike capability. A no-fly zone over Ukraine would protect civilians being targeted by Russian ballistic missiles and drones. European countries have already put forth an initiative called Sky Shield, the deployment of 120 fighter jets as part of a European air force to protect Kyiv and western Ukraine. Ukraine would also need the air defense systems and munitions to create an integrated, layered air defense belt like the one Israel employed to defeat the Iranian attacks in April and October 2024.

That would involve NATO having to participate directly in combat. Again, really risks WWIII. But even if it didn't, it violates the NATO Charter. Ukraine is not a member. It's why NATO participated in Afghanistan but largely took a pass on Iraq.

Ukraine v. Russia is nowhere near Israel vs. Iran.

...Phase two starts with turning back on the flow of weapons, munitions and intelligence to Ukraine, reactivating the logistical throughput of military aid from the Rzeszów-Jasionka airport in Poland is mission critical.

Whole lot of problems with that. The first is Trump doesn't really want to support Ukraine. He likes Putin (or maybe Putin really does have that pee tape) and despises Zelenskyy.

But even if that wasn't the case, NATO and the US have already depleted our stores of some munitions. FOr instance, there is currently a shortage of 155MM Shells.

...Phase three is the decisive push of Russian forces out of Ukraine. Once the conditions have been set, a combined arms offensive including close air support can be launched, driving Russian forces from the occupied territories just when Russia is at its weakest."

By who? Who is going to do this?

If Napoleon and Hitler couldn't defeat Russia, Zelenskyy certainly isn't.

 

[JoeB131]

Nothing, apparently.

It's all the same irrelevant pro-russian stuff from a new name.

I'm old enough to remember when "Very Liberal" meant being against endless war.

 

[Yakshi]

I'm old enough to remember when "Very Liberal" meant being against endless war.

"Very liberal" has always been against genocide.

Being pro-genocide is for Trump supporters who call themselves "slightly liberal."

There are a half-dozen of you milling around here.

Good luck with your schtick.

 

[Juin]

So, how exactly does Ukraine defeat Russia?

Isolate and destroy Russian ground forces in Ukraine by attacking their ability to sustain their army and their ability to wage war. This will create siege warfare-like conditions for Russian ground forces in the close fight. They will be left eventually to wither on the vine, vulnerable to defeat by a decisive combined arms offensive.

How did that work out in the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive? Ukraine didnt even breach the Ukrainian lines

...This would involve three phases. First comes the destruction of Russia’s deep strike capability. A no-fly zone over Ukraine would protect civilians being targeted by Russian ballistic missiles and drones. European countries have already put forth an initiative called Sky Shield, the deployment of 120 fighter jets as part of a European air force to protect Kyiv and western Ukraine. Ukraine would also need the air defense systems and munitions to create an integrated, layered air defense belt like the one Israel employed to defeat the Iranian attacks in April and October 2024.

A no fly zone! At this point I had to go to the article to see the background of the authors. I did not see any rank. Any soldier will point out that the first requirement for a no fly zone is the destruction of the Russian Air Force and Air Defense networks. Not just the ones in Ukraine, all over Russia. The authors of the article appear to ignore past no fly zones; the airforce is destroyed first

I also read the opener of the European Sky Shield initiative

<<<
This strategy proposal introduces SkyShield, a European-led Integrated Air
Protection Zone (IAPZ) that employs combat air patrols (CAPs) over uncontested
areas of Ukraine. SkyShield’s principal mission is the protection of western
Ukrainian airspace from cruise missiles. The combat aircraft involved will fly from
European airbases and closely coordinate with the Ukraine Air Force (UAF).
<<<


Seriously, the authors of Sky Shield start by predicating the success of their mission by an assumption that Russia will be so kind as not to contest any and all areas of Ukraine?

...Phase two starts with turning back on the flow of weapons, munitions and intelligence to Ukraine, reactivating the logistical throughput of military aid from the Rzeszów-Jasionka airport in Poland is mission critical.

...Phase three is the decisive push of Russian forces out of Ukraine. Once the conditions have been set, a combined arms offensive including close air support can be launched, driving Russian forces from the occupied territories just when Russia is at its weakest."

Link

The authors do not bother themselves with whether the material for a war in Ukraine is even available

 

[JoeB131]

"Very liberal" has always been against genocide.

Being pro-genocide is for Trump supporters who call themselves "slightly liberal."

There are a half-dozen of you milling around here.

Good luck with your schtick.

Except what the Russians are doing isn't genocide, unlike, let's say, what the Israelis are doing in Gaza.

Trump isn't the issue here, really. The issue is, at what point does Zelenskyy accept the reality that the war is in stalemate and he's not going to return Ukraine to its 2014 borders.

(I'm actually pretty liberal on USMB. Here, everyone is a far left loon, so I probably look like pretty right wing by comparison.)

The problem is what I've laid out. Zelenskyy is running out of little boys and old men to put on the front line. Simply dumping more money into the problem isn't going to solve that.

 

[Rogue Valley]

I'm old enough to remember when "Very Liberal" meant being against endless war.

Being against "unjust" endless war.

You neglected to include the pertinent descriptive.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Except what the Russians are doing isn't genocide, unlike, let's say, what the Israelis are doing in Gaza.

You are passing Russian disinformation and carrying Putin's water.

Definition https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

1. Killing members of the group;
2. Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
3. Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
4. Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
5. Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova

Today, 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin...

www.icc-cpi.int

17 March 2023
Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”) issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova. Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute).

 

[JoeB131]

Being against "unjust" endless war.

You neglected to include the pertinent descriptive.

Unjust is a point of view. I would say, yes, the Russians are more in the wrong than the Ukrainians are.

But here's the thing. There was an agreement in place to resolve the Donbas issue, that being the Minsk Agreement. Zelenskyy violated it repeatedly before the Russians invaded. Now, two wrongs don't make a right.

If left to their own devices, the Russian Majority in the Donbass would have voted in their own government

You are passing Russian disinformation and carrying Putin's water.

Hardly.

I point out the futility of a war that has ground down to a stalemate and can't be won by either side.

 

[Hamish Howl]

Unjust is a point of view. I would say, yes, the Russians are more in the wrong than the Ukrainians are.

But here's the thing. There was an agreement in place to resolve the Donbas issue, that being the Minsk Agreement. Zelenskyy violated it repeatedly before the Russians invaded. Now, two wrongs don't make a right.

RT bullshit.

 

[Rogue Valley]

Unjust is a point of view. I would say, yes, the Russians are more in the wrong than the Ukrainians are.

But here's the thing. There was an agreement in place to resolve the Donbas issue, that being the Minsk Agreement. Zelenskyy violated it repeatedly before the Russians invaded. Now, two wrongs don't make a right.

The Russians violated the Minst agreements even before the ink had dried.

Second Battle of Donetsk Airport - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Battle of Ilovaisk - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Battle of Debaltseve - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The agreement failed to stop fighting. At the start of January 2015, Russia sent another large batch of its regular military. Following the Russian victory at Donetsk International Airport in defiance of the Protocol, Russia repeated its pattern of August 2014, invaded with fresh forces and attacked Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve, where Ukraine suffered a major defeat, and was forced to sign a Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements, or Minsk II, which was signed on 12 February 2015.

Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russia never fulfilled critical points (and never intended to).....

1. To withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine.
2. To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone
3. To ban offensive operations

Minsk agreements - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Your understandings of events in Minsk and battles in Donbas are seriously flawed and blame Zelenskyy (who wasn't even the Ukraine president 2014-2019) for Kremlin violations of Minsk.

 

[j brown's body]

Wow, you are going to keep repeating this stuff until someone pays attention, eh?



Uh, yeah, here's the problem with that. Russia has 142 Million people. Ukraine has only 43 million, 19% of whom are Russians and probably want Putin to win. Zelenskyy is running out of men. He's had 800K casualties (injured or killed) Russia has had nearly a million. But Russia can absorb the casualties, Ukraine can't.



That would involve NATO having to participate directly in combat. Again, really risks WWIII. But even if it didn't, it violates the NATO Charter. Ukraine is not a member. It's why NATO participated in Afghanistan but largely took a pass on Iraq.

Ukraine v. Russia is nowhere near Israel vs. Iran.



Whole lot of problems with that. The first is Trump doesn't really want to support Ukraine. He likes Putin (or maybe Putin really does have that pee tape) and despises Zelenskyy.

But even if that wasn't the case, NATO and the US have already depleted our stores of some munitions. FOr instance, there is currently a shortage of 155MM Shells.




By who? Who is going to do this?

If Napoleon and Hitler couldn't defeat Russia, Zelenskyy certainly isn't.

Ukraine is getting stronger, Russia is getting weaker.

You might recall that Afghanistan defeated Russia.

 

[JoeB131]

The Russians violated the Minst agreements even before the ink had dried.

And so did the Ukrainians.

Here's the thing, put the war aside for the moment. The Donbas is predominately Russian. Clearly, they can no longer count on constitutional protections if their votes are thrown out in the Maidan Revolution, so you can see why they wanted out. (Same with the Crimea).

So an adjustment in the border is probably inevitable.

The only question is, how long does Zelenskyy continue the carnage, knowing he'll be voted out the minute they have free elections again.

 

[JoeB131]

Ukraine is getting stronger, Russia is getting weaker.

You might recall that Afghanistan defeated Russia.

Russia had no stakes in Afghanistan, that was the thing.

The irony was the "Communist" government in Afghanistan outlasted the Communist government in Moscow.

Donbas and Crimea are a different story, because there are actual Russians involved.

 

[Rogue Valley]

The Donbas is predominately Russian.

No. Crimea and Donbas are predominantly ethnic-Russian citizens of Ukraine. There are two factual statements that Putin water-carriers always and purposefully mangle.....

Factual statements: ethnicity ≠ foreign citizenship/loyalty and language ≠ foreign citizenship/loyalty

Do you realize that 50% of the residents of Kyiv speak Russian as a first language? Yet we see no Kyivan's taking up arms against their government, demanding that Kyiv become a part of Russia.

We do not see that phenomenon in Dnipro, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, or Odesa. All majority Russian-speaking cities within Ukraine.

I suggest that you look up the language-bridge of Surzhyk which is widely used in many parts of Ukraine.

Learn the difference between ethnicity and citizenship. Learn the difference between language and citizenship.

Does Moscow have a right to invade any nation with Russian-speakers present using the faux-justification that all Russian-speakers need Moscow's protection?

C'mon. Think for yourself.

 

[Tigerace117]

"Very liberal" has always been against genocide.

Being pro-genocide is for Trump supporters who call themselves "slightly liberal."

There are a half-dozen of you milling around here.

Good luck with your schtick.

Oh really? Because the U.S. has proudly supported genocidal regime across the globe—for decades—in the name of “fighting Russia”.

 

[Tigerace117]

Ukraine is getting stronger, Russia is getting weaker.

You might recall that Afghanistan defeated Russia.

The U.S. was defeated by Afghanistan, despite the aid of dozens of other countries.

The utter failure of Ukraine’s offensives strongly suggests otherwise.

 

[soap box]

The U.S. was defeated by Afghanistan, despite the aid of dozens of other countries.

The utter failure of Ukraine’s offensives strongly suggests otherwise.

And Putin invaded Ukraine. No amount of pitiful and stupid distractions and diversions can change what Putin did.



Lol utter failure. Lol. 40 aircraft. LOL

 

[Rogue Valley]

Lol utter failure. Lol. 40 aircraft. LOL

Russia's Pearl Harbor.

 

[Tigerace117]

And Putin invaded Ukraine. No amount of pitiful and stupid distractions and diversions can change what Putin did.



Lol utter failure. Lol. 40 aircraft. LOL

And Crimea has repeatedly expressed its desire to leave Ukraine since 1994. No amount of wailing “but...but...but..,Putin!” can ever change that.

Western claims about Russian losses have already proven laughably inflated. People on this site, for example, continue to asset Russian has lost a “million” KIA, despite that being laughably false.

And btw, drone attacks are entirely different than an actual physical offensive America killed plenty of innocent civilians with its drones, for which nobody has ever been punished, but said strikes failed to accomplish their supposed goals in either Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Yemen.

 

[Tigerace117]

Russia's Pearl Harbor.

Except unlike Pearl Harbor, in which the US lost thousands of sailors and numerous incredibly powerful battleships that had been the frontline of prewar US response plan for the Pacific, the Russians lost....some indefinite number of bomber aircraft.

 

[soap box]

And Crimea has repeatedly expressed its desire to leave Ukraine since 1994. No amount of wailing “but...but...but..,Putin!” can ever change that.

You'll need an internationally recognized observation of a new referendum to show that's still true. I don't believe it. You'll have to prove it with a legitimate Referendum. Oh! I forgot that Putin can't handle a referendum because he can't control the voting so I guess we'll just have to have a war and kill a half million people instead.

Western claims about Russian losses have already proven laughably inflated. People on this site, for example, continue to asset Russian has lost a “million” KIA, despite that being laughably false.

Tell Putin to announce the Russian KIA. Oh, I forgot, it's so humiliating he can't even lie about it.

And btw, drone attacks are entirely different than an actual physical offensive America killed plenty of innocent civilians with its drones, for which nobody has ever been punished, but said strikes failed to accomplish their supposed goals in either Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Yemen.

Yemen , Pakistan, Afghanistan, LOL Ha ha ha , 40 aircraft LOL. 40 aircraft.