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A call for sanity!

flogger said:
More people have died falling down the stairs or crossing the road in Italy so lets put their current coronavirus deaths in some kind of realistic context and not trash whole economies on the basis of panic laden 'what ifs' .... :roll:
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Fallacy of relative deprivation alert.
 
JasperL said:
There is never a bad time to point out incompetence and failures by those who we elected to lead us. If that's what you mean, OK.
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There is no breaking point for trumpists.
 
JasperL said:
Well, who should I believe - you or Dr. Fauci? It's a tough call for me.

But since you are the expert, what is the death rate for those infected? I look forward to hearing from your expertise so I'll know how to plan.
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Did I ask you to believe me? No- I said do the math. If you cant add... well, go listen to the "experts" then since you believe theyre always right...
 
PoS said:
Did I ask you to believe me? No- I said do the math. If you cant add... well, go listen to the "experts" then since you believe theyre always right...
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I didn't say and don't believe the "experts" are always right. But if I have a health problem, I'll call my doctor, not rely on an aggressively ignorant person online. Your mileage appears to vary.

But, again, it's a simple question. You know the death rate is not 1%, or 10 times the flu death rate of 0.1%, so what is it? You know this answer, right, because you know what it's not.

Death rate for those infected with COVID 19 is __________?

Fill in the blank. Thanks.

BTW, the math is simple:

Number infected X death rate of those infected = number killed by virus

What's obvious to me at least is when the number infected with CV19 is so far 10s of millions less than those infected annually with the flu that spreads to nearly every community in the world, the number of deaths from CV19, even at a higher death rate, will be lower than the flu, so far. If the number infected reaches flu levels, we're looking at 500k-1m additional dead.

That's why China and Italy and to a large extent S. Korea shut down their countries, to keep the "Number of infected" part of that equation low. It's what we are trying to do here, because we know the virus is some multiples more deadly than the common flu. Fauci said 10X, you say he's wrong, but no one knows why you believe that. It cannot be based on the number dead so far unless you stupidly ignore the other part of the equation.
 
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JasperL said:
I didn't say and don't believe the "experts" are always right. But if I have a health problem, I'll call my doctor, not rely on an aggressively ignorant person online. Your mileage appears to vary.

But, again, it's a simple question. You know the death rate is not 1%, or 10 times the flu death rate of 0.1%, so what is it? You know this answer, right, because you know what it's not.

Death rate for those infected with COVID 19 is __________?

Fill in the blank. Thanks.

BTW, the math is simple:

Number infected X death rate of those infected = number killed by virus
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So if you claim to know, then why ask me? Figure it out yourself. While youre at it, find out the infection rates for the common flu and how many deaths occurred, then compare it with corona. Once youve figured out how to do that, then maybe you might be able to think for yourself...
 
PoS said:
Um? What?

According to the CDC 80K Americans died from the flu in 2018. That's about 6666 per month on the average.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

Coronavirus has killed a little over 5000 since December, thats around 1666 per month.

If this virus is 50x more deadly than the flu then the death toll would be 333K according to you...

..math fail.
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The CDC estimated that were nearly 45 million cases of flu in the US that year. We are nowhere that number of cases of Coronavirus now. Nor do we want to be anywhere near that number. Hence the drastic steps many states and organizations are taking now. Talk about a math fail. And like this virus the mortality rate varies by age group.

Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season | CDC
 
PoS said:
So if you claim to know, then why ask me? Figure it out yourself. While youre at it, find out the infection rates for the common flu and how many deaths occurred, then compare it with corona. Once youve figured out how to do that, then maybe you might be able to think for yourself...
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I've done it.
R0 for CV19 - around 2.2
R0 for swine flu (that infected about 60 million Americans) - roughly 1.3-1.5

So CV19 is more contagious. Not sure how that helps your point, but maybe you'll explain.

The whole point of the extraordinary measures in China, S. Korea, Italy and what we're seeing here is to use isolation and social distancing to bring the actual R0 FAR lower than its 'natural' rate. But the point is if we do nothing, CV19 could be expected to infect far more than the 2009 swine flu epidemic, which, again, hit 60-80 million Americans. At 1% death rate - per Fauci - that's obviously 600k-800k dead at swine flu levels, maybe 1 million dead with CV19 levels if we let it run its course like we do the flu.
 
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flogger said:
Due to panic via both media hype and government overreaction. The mortality rate for this is currently around 1.5% and mainly amongst the elderley octanegarians with underlying health problems. The global warming junkies are already bleeding us dry we don't need a new source of 'guilt' our governments can feed on :(
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No, due literally to too many bodies in beds. That isn't caused by media hype.
 
PoS said:
Um? What?

According to the CDC 80K Americans died from the flu in 2018. That's about 6666 per month on the average.

CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter in the U.S. - STAT

Coronavirus has killed a little over 5000 since December, thats around 1666 per month.

If this virus is 50x more deadly than the flu then the death toll would be 333K according to you...

..math fail.
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Not a math fail on my part, but a huge logic fail on yours.

School.webp


You are comparing historical information on already present flu bug from last year to a developing situation. We have no idea how many people will be infected with Corona, we really don't know just how infectious it is and whether we can arrest its spread. It is a developing situation that you are trying to compare to a known situation. It is a relevant as comparing last years Dodger line-up, which hit 279 home runs to this year, 0 home runs, and trying to draw any conclusion other than maybe the season hasn't yet started. You certainly can not tell us the Dodger power has gone to hell. They are NOT comparable... nor is comparing total deaths from the flu to this.

We have no idea what the total deaths from this will be. But, if you want a math lesson, follow along.

Deaths = Infections * fatality rate OR
fatality rate = deaths / infections

In the case of the flu, "....In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)...."

How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science

So, lets apply that. Remember, fatality rate = deaths / infections, whereas deaths equal 20,000 and illnesses (infections) equal 34,000,000, so death rate of flu = 20,000/34,000,000 ---- (calculating) = .00058.... (rounding) 6/100 of 1%.

Now, with the Corona virus, there is much we do not know. It is a developing situation. How many will be infected (well we have a little control over that) .... how many will die, well all we have here are how many that have died vs known infections...

So, lets apply what we do know. Well, here is the current clock on that..... as of right now, it reports 5,416 deaths (interesting 1/4 of the flu) with 145,336 cases (that is a lot less than 34M.... but the number is climbing)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 145,341 Cases and 5,416 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

So, lets apply that. Remember, fatality rate = deaths / infections, whereas deaths equal 5,416 and illnesses (infections) equal 145,336, so current known death rate of Corona virus is = 5,416/145,336 ---- (calculating) = .037265 ... (rounding) 3.7%.

So, I made the statement that its 10-50X that of the flu... lets try this: Corona death rate / flu death rate or 3.7/.06 = 63.35. So, based upon current data, the CoronaVirus could be 63X as deadly as the flu.

That said, we most experts think the ultimate death rate will be closer to 1% and many think of the flu as a .1% rate (which you would get when you round .0006), so that would make the CoronaVirus 10x as dangerous.

Since Deaths = Death rate * Infections, if the Death rate is really high, the key to keeping the total number of deaths down is to minimize infections... minimize infections by minimize human interactions --- see also suspension of NBA season and deferment of start of baseball season, which may mean that the Dodgers do hit less homers in 2020.... but, that would not mean their offense is sucking. Go Blue!

More info on Corona death rate: Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Meanwhile, there are some projections that suggest the up to 1.7million Americans could die from this.... it ain't the flu!

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths - The New York Times
 
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YouTube

You want sanity? This is sanity. It's time for the sheep to say no more fleecing thank you very much.
 
PoS said:
So if you claim to know, then why ask me? Figure it out yourself. While youre at it, find out the infection rates for the common flu and how many deaths occurred, then compare it with corona. Once youve figured out how to do that, then maybe you might be able to think for yourself...
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Why are you only looking at past deaths from Corona? Are you under the impression nobody else is going to die?
 
Rickeroo said:
So it's rough out there in the grocery stores, people are freaking out. I urge everyone to look at the total number dead and compare that to the regular flu, and adjust by country.
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we did already.
 
Integrityrespec said:
Cannot happen. The 24/7 media is promoting panic over and over every day. It's about viewers and advertising, you know money. The democrats have politicized every decision, every action, every word from Trump and everyone in his administration dealing with not just Coronavirus but everything else in the past 3 years. The total saturation of bad news and impeding doom is not at all good for the psyche of the nation. This is most likely to continue through to the election and unfortunately following regardless of who wins. Democrats should remember, you reap what you sow.
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Everyone in America concerned about our 2000+ Covid deaths per day owes you our gratitude for pointing out that...

1. The media has caused panic
2. The advertising revenue is driving "the saturation of bad news" and "doom"
3. The Democrats have politicized every decision, every action, every word from Trump

When you follow and support leaders who ignore truth, science or the advice of their expert advisers
you haven't the right to throw everyone else under the bus for what is America's greatest disaster since
the Great Depression.

All you deniers and defenders of Trump should just keep your wisdom to yourselves.
 
flogger said:
Absolutely ! The hysteria has gone cosmic with this BS and I hold governments to blame for massively overreacting to it and the media for then using it as a business opportunity to hype it up even more. Panic sells after all. Here in the UK for instance its almost impossible to buy toilet paper because of consumer stockpiling . God knows why given diahorrea isn't a symptom. The Dunkirk spirit here is truly dead now its every man for himself . It is a shameful indictment of our cowardly snowflake society :(
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You are a dunce! And Winston Churchill would have you removed from his war room if he heard your stupid remarks.

The "hysteria" over here in New York has to do with the body count which is too high for our mortuaries and crematoria to handle.
We have 2000+ deaths per day in the US for more than a month...
But in your great wisdom it is all the fault of the media, those government wanker cry babies, and the cowards who are afraid to die!
 
flogger said:
More people have died falling down the stairs or crossing the road in Italy so lets put their current coronavirus deaths in some kind of realistic context and not trash whole economies on the basis of panic laden 'what ifs' .... :roll:
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Wish we could vote idiots off this platform.
 
Khayembii Communique said:
Doctors are having to use wartime triage techniques to determine who gets help. That's the realistic context you apparently don't understand. Their GDP is expected to decline by as much as 10%.
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flogger lost his/her mind a long time ago. You won't meet success trying to share facts.
 
smallvoice said:
Will someone explain why they have bought up all the toilet paper? Didn't they need it before the virus?
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I wondered the same thing.
Running short of mangoes I can understand. But toilet paper?
It may have something to do with being more "full of it" than is healthy.
Or perhaps the sheer fear of dying due to a silent invisible threat?
 
Lutherf said:
The numbers I'm seeing put the mortality rate somewhere between .22% and 6.7%. They are totally useless numbers. What does seem to be useful is the fact that 13 people died in one nursing home in Washington state and the remaining US deaths have been widely spread out. I'm simply not seeing a concentration of people keeling over from this thing outside of those that are already quite vulnerable. I'm not even seeing a whole bunch of sick people. Maybe the coming weeks will look different but it doesn't seem to be headed that direction. For example, today's big story was all about Trump's speech. If we were really having a problem wouldn't the story have been about all the new cases popping up everywhere?
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Please get your eyes checked. It appears you only see whatever you are intent on seeing like the low infection rate in Tucson.

The metro New York City area has endured over 22,000 deaths from Covid-19.
Our area consists of the boroughs of NYC, the suburbs on Long Island (where I live),
the suburbs in Northern New Jersey and to the north into Fairfield County, CT.
Nassau County where I live is heavily impacted with nearly 1700 deaths.
Our entire area has experienced thousands of direct flights from China and Europe landing at JFK and Newark airports.
No airport in AZ received the air traffic directive from Dept of Homeland Security to accept passengers from countries known to have Covid outbreaks.
 
usaf77 said:
I hate to interrupt another episode of Trump derangement syndrome but here is a list of the first countries to ban travel to/from China China travel restrictions over the coronavirus | Fortune and the dates. America was on the earliest 6 Feb 2020 list. We shut it down 2 days earlier then Hong Kong. 2 days before Bangladesh. A day before Taiwan. 2 days before Singapore. 5 days before the Philippines. A day before New Zealand. 4 days before Malaysia. 2 days before Indonesia and 3 days before India. And these are all Asian countries who basically followed America's lead, and Donald Trumps.
Dont you remember? When you Democrats were calling Trump "racist" for doing so?

Exactly what should Trump have done other then what he did with the available information? Cat got your tongue on that one?

He had to ban Europe because European countries in the EU have open borders and anyone can go anywhere at any time. Since 1985 its been a 26 country passport free, no border control open travel zone. So when Italy unhinges and comrade Merkel predicts a 70% infection rate future for Germany, the most populated state in the zone, what else could Trump do but ban travel?
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You are playing loose with the facts in order to defend your tribe's chief. It was not a "travel ban" but rather a travel restriction to 13 US airports
where passengers were screened to determine if they had stayed within certain countries in the previous 14 days.

US Department of Homeland Security directed incoming flights from China, then Iran, and then 26 Euro nations, and finally the UK & Ireland
to land at airports where passengers were to be asked if they showed signs of illness. Airports designated to receive potentially infected travelers
included NYC, NJ, Chicago, San Fran, Seattle, LA, Hawaii, Atlanta, DC, Newark, , Dallas/Fort Worth, Detroit, Boston and Miami.
Passengers were not quarantined, or tested for corona virus.
 
Anthony60 said:
These clowns (+Romney) would still be calling witnesses in the impeachment trial if they had their way. That is what they care about, damaging Trump for the election. They see this virus as just another opportunity to make political gains. The first thing we heard from them was criticism about Trump, as he was in action and taking important steps, they were doing nothing. You are a true moron, convenient idiot, or just plain hate America if you agree with this fools.
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Such foolish bending of facts...and from an adult living in Northern NJ--right in the heart of America's #1 Covid Death Region.
What will it take for you to see how sick your hate is? You say that Trump's opposition are using the Covid plague as a tool to harm Trump.
The families of the more than 22,000 Covid dead in the NYC metro area feel otherwise.
 
dcaraz said:
Such foolish bending of facts...and from an adult living in Northern NJ--right in the heart of America's #1 Covid Death Region.
What will it take for you to see how sick your hate is? You say that Trump's opposition are using the Covid plague as a tool to harm Trump.
The families of the more than 22,000 Covid dead in the NYC metro area feel otherwise.
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It would be nice if it were not true. Oh, you want a report from NJ? I don't know anyone with the Wuhan virus, don't know anyone that knows anyone with it either. There you go.

There's nothing to hate about the facts I posted. maybe you should hate yourself for supporting such a disgusting, anti American party that doesn't give two craps about this country. All they care about is gaining power, and they don't care about whatever Constitutional rights they destroy on the way. The Wuhan virus is just another opportunity for them to damage Trump. They attacked him right out of the box, they didn't even think about offering solutions.
 
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