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2008 Election Polling Numbers Thread

RightinNYC

RightinNYC

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This is the thread where you can discuss every set of poll numbers to your heart's content. Please DO NOT start other threads anywhere else in the forum that deal exclusively with polling numbers.

Thank you all, and have at it.
 
RightinNYC said:
This is the thread where you can discuss every set of poll numbers to your heart's content. Please DO NOT start other threads anywhere else in the forum that deal exclusively with polling numbers.

Thank you all, and have at it.
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Didn't the MakeoutHobo already have a thread on this that he's been regularly updating?
 
missypea said:
Didn't the MakeoutHobo already have a thread on this that he's been regularly updating?
Click to expand...

Not sure, but either way people kept posting their own new threads everytime a new poll came out. This should streamline things a bit.
 
so we now have multiple threads to consolidate multiple threads lol
 
Obama takes 11 point lead in latest Gallup.
 
Iriemon said:
Obama takes 11 point lead in latest Gallup.
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But is losing ground in all other tracking polls.

Rasmussen: Obama was ahead by 8, now 6.

Rasmussen Reports™: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

Reuters: Obama lead by 3, now by 2.

Obama has slim 2-point lead on McCain | U.S. | Reuters

Hotline: Obama was ahead by 2, now 1.

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll

Battleground: Obama had a 7 point lead, now 4.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_100808_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf

Gallup seems to be the outlier. That is probably because it is a poll of registered voters. All the others are "likely voters". Likely voter polls would seem more accurate to me.

None of these include the debate, so we will have to wait to see how that affects the numbers.
 
RCP numbers show a small closing of the gap in the last couple of days regarding national polls. It still looks fairly bad for McCain in the state polls.
 
Lerxst said:
RCP numbers show a small closing of the gap in the last couple of days regarding national polls. It still looks fairly bad for McCain in the state polls.
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yet it did look bad for McCain in the early days of the Primaries
if memory serves, htey wrote him off
and yet here he is
but so far he has failed again and again at every turn
when it should be so easy to defeat
a rookie
that shows epic failure
but atleast that is something McCain is used to facing
unlike the Cherry he is up against
how sweet is must be, to be cherry, and innocent, and be able to speak in grand terms with no substance to back it up
sad that a large portion of the American populace have swallowed it
but in the end, you get what you deserve
 
DeeJayH said:
yet it did look bad for McCain in the early days of the Primaries
if memory serves, htey wrote him off
and yet here he is
but so far he has failed again and again at every turn
when it should be so easy to defeat
a rookie
that shows epic failure
but atleast that is something McCain is used to facing
unlike the Cherry he is up against
how sweet is must be, to be cherry, and innocent, and be able to speak in grand terms with no substance to back it up
sad that a large portion of the American populace have swallowed it
but in the end, you get what you deserve
Click to expand...

In case you haven't been looking at the FactCheck articles, McCain isn't backing his bull**** up either. They are both running their mouths right now.

It's the last month of the race and Obama is hammering away and separating from McCain steadily in many of the battleground states. As I said, there is show of a closing of the gap in the nationals, but Obama is still over +5 on the average, double digit in Gallup. McCain isn't winning even one recent major national poll.

And if you follow InTrade Obama is at 72.6 with McCain at 28.2. This has been a trainwreck for the team of mavericks.
 
Last edited:
Lerxst said:
In case you haven't been looking at the FactCheck articles, McCain isn't backing his bull**** up either. They are both running their mouths right now.

It's the last month of the race and Obama is hammering away and separating from McCain steadily in many of the battleground states. As I said, there is show of a closing of the gap in the nationals, but Obama is still over +5 on the average, double digit in Gallup. McCain isn't winning even one recent major national poll.

And if you follow InTrade Obama is at 72.6 with McCain at 28.2. This has been a trainwreck for the team of mavericks.
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I will accept your intial statement as reality
sadly, while i do not support McCain, i find that if there is a close tie in my state, i will reconsider my position
from what i hav eseen here, McCain is toast and Obama is a layup, a don deal
but reality says....
 
My thread's better. I'll be updating it every chance till november 4th with all of the major polls of polls. That way you know I'm not cherry-picking polls.
 
Don't Believe the Hype; race too close to call

The presidential race is still too close to call and could come down to the very last weekend before voters decide if they like or distrust Barack Obama, a national pollster predicts.

“I don’t think Obama has closed the deal yet,” pollster John Zogby told the Herald yesterday.

Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.
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Pollster: Don’t believe the Dem hype - BostonHerald.com

Yeah, and Zogby called the 2004 election when the other polls were saying it was Kerry.
 
Re: Don't Believe the Hype; race too close to call

It's mostly going to come down to who can steal the election better anyway.
 
Re: Don't Believe the Hype; race too close to call

I hear this election is so important for democrats, that many of them are coming back from the dead to cast their ballot. :2razz:
 
Younger faithful's political agenda broader, poll finds
Young Americans of faith have a broader political agenda than opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, says a national poll released Wednesday.

And younger Catholics more strongly support Barack Obama in the presidential race, abortion rights and active government than older Catholics, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points.

Catholics older than 35 are splitting support between John McCain and Obama, 46 percent to 44 percent. Among Catholics under 35, Obama leads McCain 55 percent to 40 percent.

And six in 10 younger Catholics said abortion should be legal in most or all cases, compared with five in 10 older Catholics.

Among younger evangelicals, 52 percent support either same-sex marriage (24 percent) or civil unions (28 percent), while 61 percent of older evangelicals oppose both.

Some 43 percent of Americans rank abortion as an important issue in the 2008 election, and only 28 percent say same-sex marriage is important this cycle. Americans say the economy, gas prices and health care are the top concerns.
Click to expand...
 
Re: Don't Believe the Hype; race too close to call

WI Crippler said:
I hear this election is so important for democrats, that many of them are coming back from the dead to cast their ballot. :2razz:
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haha One of the best comments I have seen.
 
Re: Rasmussen has Obama winning Florida

Frolicking Dinosaurs said:
Link to report
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Obama is supported by 87% of Democrats and holds a fifteen point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain gets the vote from 85% or Republicans. Obama leads among voters under 40, among those who earn less than $40,000 a year or more than $100,000, and among those who rarely or never attend church. McCain has the edge among those over 40, those who earn between $40,000 and $100,000 annually, and regular churchgoers.
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Interesting. I wonder why the middle class would favor McCain over the upper class.
 
Re: Rasmussen has Obama winning Florida

IN the words of our gang of five leader.
The cons should "be afraid, be very afraid" :lamo
 
Monday polling reports.

ZOGBY MONDAY: OBAMA 48%, MCCAIN 44%... DEVELOPING...

RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45%... DEVELOPING


PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report finds registered voters preferring Barack Obama (50%) to John McCain (43%) when asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.
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Gallup Daily: Obama-McCain Gap Narrows
DRUDGE REPORT 2008®
 
Re: Monday polling reports.

If that keeps up at 1% per week as it has been, McCain will have this in the bag by mid-November!
 
Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say

Current polls of the presidential election may be underestimating Barack Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent nationally and possibly larger margins in the Southeast and some strongly Republican states, according to University of Washington researchers.
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Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say

Interesting bit of news though no one will know for sure until November 4th. I'm guessing that this is another bit of potential bad news for the GOP.

Prior to the start of the primary season, the UW researchers thought the so-called Bradley effect would play a key role in the 2008 election. Previously, this effect showed exaggerated pre-election poll support for black candidates in some prominent elections in the 1980s and 1990s.

The Bradley effect is named for former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley, a black, who lost a close 1982 gubernatorial election in California after holding a solid lead in the polls. As the 2008 primaries played out, Greenwald and Albertson found that the Bradley effect only showed up in three states -- California, New Hampshire and Rhode Island.

However, they found a reverse Bradley effect in 12 primary states. In these states they found actual support for Obama exceeded pre-election polls by totals of 7 percent or more, well beyond the polls' margins of error. These errors ranged up to 18 percent in Georgia.
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A "reverse Bradley Effect" is quite an interesting concept and one that has been discussed when people dispute the negative effect of the Bradley Effect.

Any thoughts?
 
Re: Polls may underestimate Obama's support by 3 to 4 percent, researchers say

No doubt there is some of both the Bradley effect as well as the reverse-Bradley effect. I'm guessing it would have a lot to do with one's community. No doubt with emotions so high on both sides about the campaign in general, each community would have some that disagree but are rue to expose themselves.

That being said, the Dems would be wisest to continue as though the Bradley effect is real and should ignore the equalizing possibility of the reverse.
 
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