Yellowstone ERUPTION: Supervolcano under 'STRAIN’ - experts find magma chamber pressure

[grip]

Scary stuff!

I don't worry about nukes, EMP's, massive solar flares, asteroids or super volcanoes, because that would be all she wrote Mr Goat.

 

[Mr Person]

Yeah, I read somewhere that the ground has been bulging upwards by several inches a year, which sounds terrifying in geological terms, but the belief is that it would need to bulge upward another mile and a half before the earthen cap would crack open.

Well, I wasn't aware of how much distance the bulge would need to expand. The bottom line is that we'll have plenty of signs well before an eruption, unless we are missing some huge piece of the picture when it comes to seismology and related sciences.

 

[trblmkr]

Give yourself a month, seriously.One of our month-long trips went Mt. Rushmore, Rocky Mtn NP, Grand Tetons, Yellowstone and Glacier, my wife's favorite.
Then long drive to western Washington--North Cascades, Olympic, Mt. Rainier, Mt. St. Helen's and its gaping hole.
The sliver through Idaho to Washington is gorgeous.
Then down through Oregon and Mt. Hood and Crater Lake.
California with Redwoods, Yosemite, King's Canyon.

Then there's Grand Canyon on the way home. I strongly recommend one then head north to my latest love, UTAH.
Canyons in southern Utah like Zion, Bryce and the north rim of the Grand Canyon, hard to get to.

I'm currently into the Wasatch and High Uinta Mtns in Northern Utah with their new roads.
Back through Colorado is the Black Canyon of the Gunnison for starters.
The drive from Silverton to Ouray is likened to the Alps.
I'll look for a good nps link.

Always underestimated are the drives through the National Forests.
Two-lane roads are in great shape with full emergency lanes.

Still further underestimated are the great people you will meet. Live the Dream ...

OK. That is a road trip dreams are made of. That might take 6 weeks. Or several long vacations. But a really nice list. I've only done about half and most of that in my teens.
A note on Yosemite. The place can be a parking lot when the weather is nice. But it is so worth seeing. So while I cannot suggest skipping it, I have to note it can wall to wall with people. Go a month early or late and risk a little cold weather for the reduced traffic. IMO, it's even prettier when it snows.

 

[Linc]

OK. That is a road trip dreams are made of. That might take 6 weeks. Or several long vacations. But a really nice list. I've only done about half and most of that in my teens.
A note on Yosemite. The place can be a parking lot when the weather is nice. But it is so worth seeing. So while I cannot suggest skipping it, I have to note it can wall to wall with people. Go a month early or late and risk a little cold weather for the reduced traffic. IMO, it's even prettier when it snows.

The thing we liked the most, when getting a parking spot early enough, was the bus system that would take you around the floor to some 60 view and hike points. Up one waterfall path and down another, such as Vernal Falls to Nevada Falls IIRC.

As you say, the earlier the better, when waterfalls are at their greatest flow. I don't ever want to go through Xanterra again though.

This summer, I want to Amtrak from Princeton, IL to Emeryville, CA--car rental to Seattle and back--then return home the same way. The train through Colorado is so worth it. We do roomettes, and they're already booking heavy, as they start 11 months in advance ...

 

[Waddy]

Is there any way we can blame this on climate change?

 

[Roadvirus]

Is there any way we can blame this on climate change?

I'm sure if we get Al Bore Gore working on it, he can come up with something outlandish.

 

[danarhea]

Scary stuff!

Since the last super eruption of the Yellowstone super volcano, there have been more than 2 dozen regular eruptions, on the order of Mount St. Helen. Scientists believe that the next super eruption won't happen for thousands of years, but we could have a regular eruption at any time. It won't be the end of the world. However, there is an even greater danger which could happen in our lifetimes. This would be in the Cascadia subduction zone, which is overdue for a massive earthquake. When, not if, it happens, it will be worse than Fukushima, and will completely wipe out Seattle and kill millions of people.

 

[jwzg]

I like disaster movies too, but the formula is a tad predictable. Hero Scientist discovers alarming trend in rise of [Pick one: radiation, solar flares, earthquakes, meteors, monsters, volcanos]. Cut to scene indicating strained relations with Estranged Wife and daughter. Cut to scene of interior of Generic Military Control Center confirming alarming trend in [Pick one: radiation, solar flares, earthquakes, meteors, monsters, volcanos]. Cut to scene of Hero Scientist in fight with Estranged Wife and her New Boyfriend. Hero Scientist's bitch of a daughter calls him a loser. INSERT FIRST SCENE OF MASSIVE END-OF-WORLD CGI one hour into movie, just before audience grows bored and leaves the theater. Hero scientist flees with estranged wife and daughter. MORE MASSIVE END-OF-WORLD CGI. Hero scientist finds a way to save the world. MEGA-MASSIVE END-OF-WORLD CGI FINALE. Competing boyfriend dies, allowing Hero Scientist to reunite with Estranged Wife and daughter, even though this does not in any way solve any of the original reasons why they broke up in the first place. Credits.

:lol: Perfect!

 

[USViking]

Yeah, I read somewhere that the ground has been bulging upwards by several inches a year, which sounds terrifying in geological terms, but the belief is that it would need to bulge upward another mile and a half before the earthen cap would crack open.

Citation please.

I did try to do your work for you, but about 30 minutes of google was unavailing.

I do not believe Volcanoes are known for dramatic increases in preeruption elevation, and I doubt Yellowstone would give us more than a few hundred feet warning max.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Since the last super eruption of the Yellowstone super volcano, there have been more than 2 dozen regular eruptions, on the order of Mount St. Helen. Scientists believe that the next super eruption won't happen for thousands of years, but we could have a regular eruption at any time. It won't be the end of the world. However, there is an even greater danger which could happen in our lifetimes. This would be in the Cascadia subduction zone, which is overdue for a massive earthquake. When, not if, it happens, it will be worse than Fukushima, and will completely wipe out Seattle and kill millions of people.

I am actually getting worried.....for the first time in near 20 years I am stocking up on water, and am making sure that my propane tank stay pretty full so that I can cook outside.

 

[vesper]

Scary stuff!

Here's a link to updates on activities being monitored at Yellowstone. Their latest entry shows no reason to be alarmed.

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo/index.html

I enjoy reading about excavations/archeology. The number of ancient maritime cities that fell off into the oceans to cities once covered in molten lava are currently being excavated. Nothing on this old Earth remains the same. It is always changing. I think there is definitely an element of media that likes to magnify the fear factor. But the truth is a person could go nuts dwelling on all the "what if's".

Some day NYC, San Francisco and others may very well fall into the ocean or others that were built around active volcanoes being covered in lava like so many ancient cities before them. Or maybe a giant asteroid will fall from the heavens and plow under several cities. If a person wants to live in fear over all the "what if's" that's their choice. Personally I am in the Carpe Diem group.

 

[Linc]

I am actually getting worried.....for the first time in near 20 years I am stocking up on water, and am making sure that my propane tank stay pretty full so that I can cook outside.

You've got Olympic and the North Cascades, not to mention the twin peaks of Mt. Rainier and the Liberty Cap. You better take vesper's advice in post 86, so you don't 86 yourself irl. :mrgreen:

We've been out the 50-mile road to the Mt. Helens' Visitor Center from I-5, the visitor center has a name I can't remember. I'll always remember one particular curve where you see the gaping hole for the first time.

Olympic--we came down the North Cascades to sea level--went up to Olympic the next day--perfect weather after multiple days of rain--locals told me the puffs coming out of Olympic were lenticular clouds--pretty cool--bad clear-cutting outside of the park--never good for mud-slides in rainy areas;

We came down to sea level and my wife went down with inner ear--for two full days--our tendency as spouses is to always shift into a high gear to take care of our spouses; I get the same sick feeling when we take ferry boats out of Bellingham to Alaska in open ocean ...

 

[jmotivator]

Citation please.

I did try to do your work for you, but about 30 minutes of google was unavailing.

I do not believe Volcanoes are known for dramatic increases in preeruption elevation, and I doubt Yellowstone would give us more than a few hundred feet warning max.

Well, you are wrong.

A super volcano like the one in Yellowstone SPECIFICALLY bulges as a prerequisite to eruption. Essentially, the bulge has to be great enough to cause a fissure in the earth above to allow the eruption to happen. A caldera like that in Yellowstone essentially works on both sides of the earthen cap, melting it from the bottom, and subjecting it to elastic pressure from above. If it erupts it will be a combination of enough of the cap melting away, thinning the cap, and a sufficient bulge from the top causing it to pop like an over inflated balloon. Much of the immense energy being released in a super volcano is due to the below-effect of the massive earthen cap collapsing back in to the caldera once the eruption happens, forcing the liquid contents of the caldera out. The bulge rate would be a problem if the layer above the caldera was only a few miles, but it's 10 miles thick which requires a significant expansion of the magma chamber to start an eruption.

Don't be mad at me, it's science.

 

[Perotista]

Scary stuff!

If Yellowstone blows, you won't have to worry about gun control or the Russians. In fact, even global warming will have become passe. Now there has been several documentaries on the possibility of a Yellowstone super eruption, nothing nice would ever come of it. Its eruption would send mankind back to the stone age if mankind survived.

I wonder if they could make a better world than we have?

 

[Vlad Dreamer]

Why do volcanos erupt? Because the temperature inside the planet rises and the expanding magma can not hold its own. But this temperature is constantly decreasing, because the nuclear fuel that feeds it (uranium, thorium) is coming to an end.

For small eruptions, there is still strength, but for super volcanoes it is already inadequate.

But still there is a threat of super-volcanoes. Why? Because if there is a collision of the Earth with an asteroid, the kinetic energy obtained from this collision can well lead to the eruption of a super volcano and even more catastrophic consequences depending on the magnitude of the cosmic body.

 

[USViking]

Well, you are wrong. it's science.

Your citations do not confirm that there would be a preeruption surface bulge of a mile and a half (7920 feet), and if they did you should have provided supporting quotations to begin with back in post #71

A super volcano like the one in Yellowstone SPECIFICALLY bulges as a prerequisite to eruption. Essentially, the bulge has to be great enough to cause a fissure in the earth above to allow the eruption to happen

Did you read my reply? I agreed that there would be a bulge.

A caldera like that in Yellowstone essentially works on both sides of the earthen cap, melting it from the bottom, and subjecting it to elastic pressure from above. If it erupts it will be a combination of enough of the cap melting away, thinning the cap, and a sufficient bulge from the top causing it to pop like an over inflated balloon. Much of the immense energy being released in a super volcano is due to the below-effect of the massive earthen cap collapsing back in to the caldera once the eruption happens, forcing the liquid contents of the caldera out. The bulge rate would be a problem if the layer above the caldera was only a few miles, but it's 10 miles thick which requires a significant expansion of the magma chamber to start an eruption.

Garbled, and unsupportive of your “mile and a half”.

A caldera is a depression which results from vent wall collapse. Calderas do not “melt” anything, and there is no “layer above” them. You seem to have confused caldera with magma chamber/reservoir.

Don't be mad at me it’s science.

Science is good. Misreporting science is bad.

 

[blackjack50]

Your citations do not confirm that there would be a preeruption surface bulge of a mile and a half (7920 feet), and if they did you should have provided supporting quotations to begin with back in post #71



Did you read my reply? I agreed that there would be a bulge.




Garbled, and unsupportive of your “mile and a half”.

A caldera is a depression which results from vent wall collapse. Calderas do not “melt” anything, and there is no “layer above” them. You seem to have confused caldera with magma chamber/reservoir.




Science is good. Misreporting science is bad.

Talk about a Necro.

 

[USViking]

Talk about a Necro.

"Necro"? I am not into millennial slang.

It should interest you to know that I e-mailed the USGS and asked them about pre-eruption elevation increase. If they answer I will post it here, even if the thread is a bit old by then.

 

[blackjack50]

"Necro"? I am not into millennial slang.

It should interest you to know that I e-mailed the USGS and asked them about pre-eruption elevation increase. If they answer I will post it here, even if the thread is a bit old by then.

It isn’t milenial slang my man. It is forum terminology. Means bringing up a dead thread.

 

[USViking]

It isn’t milenial slang my man. It is forum terminology. Means bringing up a dead thread.

I looked it up and did notice that definition, but dismissed it because this thread is only 9 days old and is still alive and well.

 

[USViking]

Answer to email from me asking about height of Yellowstone volcano preeruption uplift from

Michael Poland PhD USGS Scientist-in-Charge Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

This is a good question, and one that I don't have a good answer for, I'm sorry to say. Certainly there would be major uplift. But what the cumulative amount of that uplift would be I don't think anyone could really say. From a hazards perspective, my focus would be on the rate of the deformation. Prior to any eruptive activity, we should see much more rapid and sustained uplift as magma accumulated and then began to ascend. I'm talking rates of meters meters per year. This is based on results from other calderas, like Campi Flegrei and Rabaul.

So, I'm sorry I don't have a great answer to your question. But I hope this perspective is at least interesting.

Best wishes,
Mike Poland, USGS
Scientist-in-Charge, YVO

Sorry. That should have just been "meters per year". That's what I get for typing emails into a phone...

Best wishes,
Mike

 

[Hawkeye10]

I am pretty sure that I heard that this one if it blows will likely help load with global warming by way of providing global cooling.

Are we supposed to be cheering for this?

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

I am pretty sure that I heard that this one if it blows will likely help load with global warming by way of providing global cooling.

Are we supposed to be cheering for this?

Only if you think the world is over populated and that mass starvation for a few years to clear out a significant number of people from the world would be a good thing.

From what I remember the dust cloud created from something like this would disrupt the climate for a few years, likely leading to a lot of crop failures and as such starvation

 

[Hawkeye10]

Only if you think the world is over populated and that mass starvation for a few years to clear out a significant number of people from the world would be a good thing.

From what I remember the dust cloud created from something like this would disrupt the climate for a few years, likely leading to a lot of crop failures and as such starvation

This planet is most certainly over populated with humans.

If the humans were a better smarter species they would do something about that.

 

[UtahBill]

I love it. I am a child of the 70s, and we had tons of disaster movies. They are now my favorite kind. End of the world scenarios are my absolute favorite.

Have you seen Delicatessen ?
Dark humor at its best....