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Will Republicans Lose the Senate in 2006?

flip2

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55-44, 1 independent (who caucuses with the Democrats), currently comprises the United States Senate, with the Republicans holding a firm majority.

With low approval ratings for Congress; the judicial tie-ups; the possibility of nominating 1-2 Supreme Court Justices before Bush's term is over;the Schiavo involvement; the Iraq and Gitmo concerns; John Bolton nomination hold-up; Social Security not taken up in committee; Senator Frist losing control over his moderate wing; John McCain making headway for a presidential run; Boxer, Biden, Dodd, Durbin, and Kennedy making louder ruckus; a key member of the GOP Senate leadership (Santorum of PA) trailing in his homestate in recent polls; is there a greater chance that the Senate will be controlled by Harry Reid come January 2, 2007? Do you believe some GOP seats will be lost, but will still have control? Or do you believe there will be an increase in Republican seats?

Please provide rational analyses with your answers.
 

LaMidRighter

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It all depends on what the political climate will bring to the table. First advantage currently enjoyed by our side is the incumbent advantage, this is not an absolute advantage but is a hefty one and is about a 90-98% sureity. Other points of consideration would have to be the behavior of the officials themselves, for instance, I myself would not vote for many of the current democrat congressmen or senators because I feel that they are divisive, childish, arrogant, and condesending, eventually mainstream America will not see that they are accurately represented by this foolish behavior and will vote accordingly.
Also, many on the left are moving so far out politically that they will represent a fringe of the American public that will have no real sway towards election, this fringe is usually a very liquid voting base, usually the young, activist minded that will eventually grow up and with that become more conservative. This fringe will not be able to push these democrat candidates into power and in fact because of this political flaw democrat representation will probably in fact, shrink.
One final Democrat mistake that comes to mind is that of alienating middle America in the above attempt to reign in said fringe. Personal attacks against all states south of the Mason Dixon line will not soon be forgotten and pandering such as that by Dean and Hillary is actually more damaging than one could imagine. In the south, a huge and growing portion of the electorate we don't really like to be insulted, we don't like fake people, and we expect our vote to go to someone without a certain amount of honor and can tell alot by people within a statement, facial expression, tone of voice, and even a handshake. To treat the south like unintelligent and unsophisticated rubes is probably the biggest flaw that the Dems will have to live with.
 

Squawker

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I agree, Dean will be the lefts downfall. I expect some seats will be lost but Republicans will hold the majority. We don't have many contenders names yet, so it is hard to predict this early. Republican fund raising is very high, while the Democrats are still at about one third. They have a way to go yet.
 

1SGRet

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It depends. GWB seems determined to pull a WJC. That is, just let the GOP hang until he can get his 'little' brother Jeb into the act. Or, maybe he has a different motive.

The relationship between the president and the Congress is tenuous. The voting public, and rightly so, judges the Congress on its own merits, or what they think of as being good legislative activities. But, the president is joined at the hip with Congress in this sense. If the economy and the war goes down hill, both get blamed. And, many is the time when a president has pulled in Congress by his coattails. Won't now, I don't think; he'll never/can't run again unless he wheels in Laura. Lame duck, Dubya, now, and everybody in the GOP - fair or not - is beginning to get egg on their collective faces.

Notice how carefully key Republicans are beginning to sever the ties?

Have pity on me - this is my very first post on Debate Politics Forums. Hello to all...
 

Schweddy

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Welcome to Debate Politics!

I think if Prez becomes a "Lame duck" then the dems with get congress. Else, the energy bill passes (yuk) and flag buring bill passes - republicans will ride it until 2008.
 

Squawker

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1SGRet! :2wave:​
 
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