Will Putin use tactical nukes?

[EnigmaO01]

According to this, tactical nuclear weapons are not as destructive to built up areas of modern construction as most assume.

America Isn't Ready for Russia's Battlefield Nuclear Weapons​

https://www.19fortyfive.com › 2022/02 › america-isnt-...
Feb 1, 2022 — Fourth, the intense thermal radiation (x-ray) released in our theoretical nuclear blast dissipates in a radius of less than one thousand yards ...

IOW, if Putin believes use of tactical nuclear weapons does not rise to (or justify) a retaliatory reaction on a scale expected by some here and in the public sphere generally, I expect he will more likely resort to use of them than to withdraw in humiliation from Ukraine.

Prevailing winds in the present and near term will deliver radiation resulting from near ground detonation primarily on Russian territory.

What retaliatory response would the U.S. feel forced to resort to in reaction to an attack resulting in the damage described as follows"

Link to cached page of this article,
https://webcache.googleusercontent....ulse/+&cd=24&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=opera

China Has ‘First-Strike’ Capability To Melt U.S. Power Grid With Electromagnetic Pulse Weapon

China now has a network of satellites, high-speed missiles, and super-EMP weapons that could melt down our electric grid, fry critical communications, and even takeout the ability of our aircraft carrier groups to respond.

www.forbes.com

Jun 25, 2020,11:00am EDT

China Has ‘First-Strike’ Capability To Melt U.S. Power Grid With Electromagnetic Pulse Weapon​

"...
Last week, the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security issued a scary report on China’s ability to conduct an Electromagnetic Pulse attack on the United States. The key takeaway, according to Dr. Peter Pry,
 executive director of the task force, is that China now has super-EMP weapons, knows how to protect itself against an EMP attack, and has developed protocols to conduct a first-strike attack, even as they deny they would ever do so.

According to the Center for Strategic International Studies, China has the most active ballistic missile development program in the world, so this is doubly troubling. China used stolen U.S. technology to develop at least three types of high-tech weapons to attack the electric grid and key technologies that could cause a surprise “Pearl Harbor” attack that could produce a deadly blackout to the entire country.

Dr. Pry outlines how China has built a network of satellites, high-speed missiles, and super-electromagnetic pulse weapons that could melt down our electric grid, fry critical communications, and even takeout the ability of our aircraft carrier groups to respond."

How did you and why did you suddenly shift to China? Your post makes no sense.

 

[Fishking]

No. Because even though he's 100 ibs of crazy in 50ibs bag, even he knows it'd be the end of him.

Yup...he's specifically stopping NATO expansion and does not want to get anyone else more involved than they are. A nuke would change that and even China might turn on Russia if they did.

Btw...your signature block is propaganda that's been debunked.

The defiant soldiers of Snake Island are actually 'alive and well,' says Ukraine's navy | CNN

The Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island -- who were all feared dead after their defiant response to threats from a Russian warship -- are actually "alive and well," according to the Ukrainian Navy.

www.cnn.com

 

[Fishking]

Wow! I just posted this and am already shocked at the number of incorrect responses.

Folks, I said in the opening post you could check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer.

Everyone saying no is correct until a nuke is actually used. Everyone saying they will be used are wrong until/if one is used. Your statement is weird.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)

I don't think it's helpful to look at this question in a binary sort of way. If we take Putin at his word then the issue of Ukraine is an existential issue for how he views Russia's geopolitical position in the world, and Russia has stated it would use nuclear weapons if it perceives itself to face some sort of existential risk, so, it's definitely a risk, but it's not a certainty. I think there is some risk of Putin using a tactical nuke above 0%, and somewhere below maybe 10%, with the risk rising depending on things like how poorly the Russia army performs in a conventional context versus the Ukrainians, and also the degree of aggressiveness by NATO. So, for example, if the situation is stuck in a stalement, and Russia can hold onto Crimea and Eastern Ukraine then the risk decreases. Let's say, in the alternative, just as an example, that Ukraine begins wiping the floor with the Russians and takes back the parts Russia has been controlling prior to this war then I think the risk that Russia uses a tactical nuke rises.

Paradoxically it's Russia's poor military performance in Ukraine that has increased the risk of nuclear war. That's the thing that irritates me. The rest of the world now faces a substantial increase in the risk of nuclear annihilation because Russia chose to wage an offensive war against its neighbor and did so in such a pathetic and incompetent way that it might resort to using nuclear weapons to recover from its mistake.

 

[uptower]

I like to think his commanders would stop him, but he seems to be purging those.

 

[yankintx]

Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)

If you had asked this question 1 month ago i would have said no.

Now i am not so sure. If Putin was pushed back to the Russian border, with Ukranian forces entering Russia, it's possible, and downright scary.

 

[W_Heisenberg]

I’m leaning with this.

Nukes fly (whatever flavor you want to label them) and it’s game over.

I don’t think he is quite that crazy, yet.

It may not be game over if Russia uses tactical nukes in Ukraine. Russia has options. But so does Ukraine. So does NATO. NATO may simply respond with conventional arms, and refrain from responding with retaliatory nuclear strikes if Russia uses tactical nukes on Ukraine. And Ukraine might simply respond by negotiating with Russia to end the war.

 

[DarkWizard12]

i think the longer this war goes on, the more likely it becomes he uses small, tactical nukes(escalate to deescalate doctrine).

which is unfortunate, i don't want that to happen.

I give it 6 mo - a year before such an option becomes realistic, at current pace.

 

[MaryP]

Not necessarily. Russia has options. But so does Ukraine. So does NATO. NATO may simply respond with conventional arms, and refrain from responding with retaliatory nuclear strikes if Russia uses tactical nukes on Ukraine. And Ukraine might simply respond by negotiating with Russia to end the war.

It seems to me that tactical nukes going off anywhere in Europe, NATO country or not, is an existential threat to all. I hope that's one thing they decide on tomorrow. There is no reason to retaliate with more nukes, but I would like to see NATO swarm Ukraine and kick Russia's ass all the way home, out of Crimea, Donbas, everywhere, including lurking on the Belaruse border. Nukes should be an invitation to bring it on.

 

[DarkWizard12]

How did you and why did you suddenly shift to China? Your post makes no sense.

because they're the US's largest adversary, and you're to be ridiculed if you don't think China is going to try to take advantage of this on the world stage.

 

[DarkWizard12]

It seems to me that tactical nukes going off anywhere in Europe, NATO country or not, is an existential threat to all. I hope that's one thing they decide on tomorrow. There is no reason to retaliate with more nukes, but I would like to see NATO swarm Ukraine and kick Russia's ass all the way home, out of Crimea, Donbas, everywhere, including lurking on the Belaruse border.

but then he will retaliate to us with even more, stronger nukes. This is why we do everything we can to avoid world war 3, like sane people.

Nukes should be an invitation to bring it on.

because you want russia to nuke again. You don't think playing a game of chicken with russia won't go wrong?

 

[MaryP]

but then he will retaliate to us with even more, stronger nukes. This is why we do everything we can to avoid world war 3, like sane people.

because you want russia to nuke again. You don't think playing a game of chicken with russia won't go wrong?

I see your point, but imo, the world can't let him get away with that.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)

I don't think so.

Russia has played out their own version of Proud Prophet. They know as well as we do that once a nuke goes off - even a small, tactical nuke - events will be set into motion which will inevitably result in the end of the world, at least as we know it.

 

[Lord Tammerlain]

Depends

If the fight stays between Ukraine and Russia very unlikely if nato gets involved directly, I would say likely. At that point the war would be lost and Nato ( meaning US )would not stop at driving Russia from Ukraine. At that point he has little to lose

 

[Roadvirus]

Btw...your signature block is propaganda that's been debunked.

The defiant soldiers of Snake Island are actually 'alive and well,' says Ukraine's navy | CNN

The Ukrainian defenders of Snake Island -- who were all feared dead after their defiant response to threats from a Russian warship -- are actually "alive and well," according to the Ukrainian Navy.

www.cnn.com

Alive or dead...it don't matter. They still deserve to be remembered.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

You don't think playing a game of chicken with russia won't go wrong?

Of course it will go wrong.

 

[RealityNow]

Wow! I just posted this and am already shocked at the number of incorrect responses.

Folks, I said in the opening post you could check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer.

Link to your post

 

[EnigmaO01]

because they're the US's largest adversary, and you're to be ridiculed if you don't think China is going to try to take advantage of this on the world stage.

I'm to be ridiculed? Is that so?

The big picture you are missing here is if any super power attacks another super power unprovoked that would be suicide with the nuclear arsenals that are in ready.

Did you ever think of that smart guy?

 

[Mach]

I don't see Putin using nukes for Ukraine.
He's not having that much trouble leveling cities right now with artillery and missile strikes.

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

because they're the US's largest adversary,

According to who? What does that mean?

How are you measure size of adversity?

 

[TheDoctorWasIn]

...escalate to deescalate doctrine...

Oh, you mean the doctrine that was fairly conclusively proven to inevitably result in complete destruction of North America and Eurasia in the Proud Prophet wargames?

 

[EnigmaO01]

I don't see Putin using nukes for Ukraine.
He's not having that much trouble leveling cities right now with artillery and missile strikes.

That may change as the Ukrainians have more luck routing the Russians from their positions.

 

[Lursa]

Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)

How do you know the correct answer?

 

[Lursa]

Would depend on his level of desperation/sanity, and whether the use of them would render uninhabitable those areas of Ukraine he wanted back as Russian territory.

Well that's just it...what's the point? IMO the only real target for a nuke would be Ukraine itself. Anywhere else would be another act of war.

Would Putin nuke his prize? A good part of it is already contaminated. It's a major agricultural region that's very valuable. IMO no. If it's that tactically focused, I dont think the rest of the country would stop resisting and he risks damaging all that ag. land and pipeline.

 

[BahamaBob]

Since such an action would completely isolate Russia, causing anyone who is tolerating their current behavior to turn on them, it would be a disaster for Russia. It would necessitate the total destruction of their economy.

The invasion of Ukraine has exposed Russia's conventional military as a paper tiger. I would not be surprised to learn that their nuclear force is more of the same.