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Will Putin use tactical nukes?

Will Putin use tactical nukes?

  • Yes

  • No


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noonereal

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Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)
 

Bodi

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I can't imagine he would be stupid enough. If he did he would have nowhere to go, anywhere, ever, in the world and hide. He would be done unless he stayed in power in Russia or China gave him asylum... which I could never see happening.
 

WillyPete

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It's hard to see what advantage he would gain from that.

The appropriate time for that would have been right at the outset of the invasion, to disrupt them (to put it mildly.)

Then his army swoops into Ukraine, and that way it's a fait accompli before the West can respond conventionally.

Then in part 2 the West (for some reason) decides not to retaliate with nukes.

Victory!
 

noonereal

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Wow! I just posted this and am already shocked at the number of incorrect responses.

Folks, I said in the opening post you could check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer.
 

The Mark

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Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)
Putin is currently using his god-like magic powers to juggle tactical nuclear warheads in the sky above Kiev.
Depending on your level of belief in these powers, he may or may not drop one.
 

Risky Thicket

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I say he won’t for the time being but if crap continues to fall apart for Putin, including domestically, he might.

First, he’ll see what NATO does after he uses chlorine gas on Ukrainians.
 

Lycanthrope

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Would depend on his level of desperation/sanity, and whether the use of them would render uninhabitable those areas of Ukraine he wanted back as Russian territory.
 

Gaius46

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As of today no. My answer might be different tomorrow.
 

BirdinHand

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No. Because even though he's 100 ibs of crazy in 50ibs bag, even he knows it'd be the end of him.
I’m leaning with this.

Nukes fly (whatever flavor you want to label them) and it’s game over.

I don’t think he is quite that crazy, yet.
 

btthegreat

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Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)
That comes across as a bit cocky but, no, I don't think so. they have plenty of other options that can kill a lot of innocents and brake the Ukrainian morale , which they can better control and predict the reaction to, including chemical weapons.
 

Cardinal

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So far he's not directly attacking Western countries in spite of sanctions and robust arming of Ukrainian forces. As horrible as everything he's doing is, he's revealing a distinct recognition of the "old rules."

I'm at "concerned but not worried." After worry comes alarm, at which point I'm going to have to seriously consider how to...um...exit...a world in which there's nuclear war.
 

noonereal

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So far he's not directly attacking Western countries in spite of sanctions and robust arming of Ukrainian forces. As horrible as everything he's doing is, he's revealing a distinct recognition of the "old rules."

I'm at "concerned but not worried." After worry comes alarm, at which point I'm going to have to seriously consider how to...um...exit...a world in which there's nuclear war.

He won't attack a western country. But he sure as hell will do whatever he wants in Ukraine 🇺🇦 and if he feels he needs tactical nukes he will use them.
Take that to the bank.
If we they move military, well then hit the bunker because then the big ones will fly and DC and NYC will be ground zero.

He knows he can't we a conventional war so if we engage him, he has to use nukes.

So would you or I.
 

Cardinal

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He won't attack a western country. But he sure as hell will do whatever he wants in Ukraine 🇺🇦 and if he feels he needs tactical nukes he will use them.
Take that to the bank.
If we they move military, well then hit the bunker because then the big ones will fly and DC and NYC will be ground zero.

He knows he can't we a conventional war so if we engage him, he has to use nukes.

So would you or I.
The issue here really isn't whether Western and Russian forces would engage in direct combat. So far that's not a thing and doesn't seem like it will be. The danger is that Putin has reduced the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, that he could justify "only" a 7kt nuke to clear Ukrainian forces or a city, as if that's not a catastrophic red line. If he does that, things will escalate extremely quickly, and it will be tens of thousands of years before the earth's biosphere will support life as well as it does day.
 

Checkerboard Strangler

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Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)

All I can say is, ask yourself if Trump would, and there's your answer.
 

noonereal

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The issue here really isn't whether Western and Russian forces would engage in direct combat. So far that's not a thing and doesn't seem like it will be. The danger is that Putin has reduced the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, that he could justify "only" a 7kt nuke to clear Ukrainian forces or a city, as if that's not a catastrophic red line.

A small nuke in a none Nato country should not be a red line if red line means we declare war with Russia. We cannot attack Russia no matter what he does in Ukraine. It is what it is.

He is gonna use one because he can't win his war in any other way and he will bring Armageddon before he loses.
 

Cardinal

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A small nuke in a none Nato country should not be a red line if red line means we declare war with Russia. We cannot attack Russia no matter what he does in Ukraine. It is what it is.

He is gonna use one because he can't win his war in any other way and he will bring Armageddon before he loses.
Using nuclear weapons is a different kind of red line. It signifies that the use of nukes in standard combat is now SOP. That would be our Great Filter event.
 

Juin

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Simple question. I just wanted to see who gets this question right.
(Clue, you can check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer)


Putin may be nuts, but anyone who seriously believes he will use nukes is nuts as well. There are conventional ways of killing as many people without the baggage that comes with nukes.
 

Juin

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That comes across as a bit cocky but, no, I don't think so. they have plenty of other options that can kill a lot of innocents and brake the Ukrainian morale , which they can better control and predict the reaction to, including chemical weapons.


Cannot agree more. Even when nukes were first used conventional weapons were still able to kill as many
 

Cardinal

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Putin may be nuts, but anyone who seriously believes he will use nukes is nuts as well. There are conventional ways of killing as many people without the baggage that comes with nukes.
And people believed he wouldn't invade Ukraine even as it was painfully obviously that that's exactly what would happen. Obviously, however, I'm hoping you're right.
 

EnigmaO01

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Wow! I just posted this and am already shocked at the number of incorrect responses.

Folks, I said in the opening post you could check my posts from before the invasion for the correct ansewer.
What do you mean the "correct response?" Unless you inside Putin's head you don't really know what he will do.
 

post

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The issue here really isn't whether Western and Russian forces would engage in direct combat. So far that's not a thing and doesn't seem like it will be. The danger is that Putin has reduced the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, that he could justify "only" a 7kt nuke to clear Ukrainian forces or a city, as if that's not a catastrophic red line. If he does that, things will escalate extremely quickly, and it will be tens of thousands of years before the earth's biosphere will support life as well as it does day.
According to this, tactical nuclear weapons are not as destructive to built up areas of modern construction as most assume.

America Isn't Ready for Russia's Battlefield Nuclear Weapons

https://www.19fortyfive.com › 2022/02 › america-isnt-...
Feb 1, 2022 — Fourth, the intense thermal radiation (x-ray) released in our theoretical nuclear blast dissipates in a radius of less than one thousand yards ...

IOW,
if Putin believes use of tactical nuclear weapons does not rise to (or justify) a retaliatory reaction on a scale expected by some here and in the public sphere generally, I expect he will more likely resort to use of them than to withdraw in humiliation from Ukraine.

Prevailing winds in the present and near term will deliver radiation resulting from near ground detonation primarily on Russian territory.

What retaliatory response would the U.S. feel forced to resort to in reaction to an attack resulting in the damage described as follows"

Link to cached page of this article,
https://webcache.googleusercontent....ulse/+&cd=24&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=opera

Jun 25, 2020,11:00am EDT

China Has ‘First-Strike’ Capability To Melt U.S. Power Grid With Electromagnetic Pulse Weapon​

"...
Last week, the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security issued a scary report on China’s ability to conduct an Electromagnetic Pulse attack on the United States. The key takeaway, according to Dr. Peter Pry,
 executive director of the task force, is that China now has super-EMP weapons, knows how to protect itself against an EMP attack, and has developed protocols to conduct a first-strike attack, even as they deny they would ever do so.

According to the Center for Strategic International Studies, China has the most active ballistic missile development program in the world, so this is doubly troubling. China used stolen U.S. technology to develop at least three types of high-tech weapons to attack the electric grid and key technologies that could cause a surprise “Pearl Harbor” attack that could produce a deadly blackout to the entire country.

Dr. Pry outlines how China has built a network of satellites, high-speed missiles, and super-electromagnetic pulse weapons that could melt down our electric grid, fry critical communications, and even takeout the ability of our aircraft carrier groups to respond."
 
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noonereal

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Using nuclear weapons is a different kind of red line. It signifies that the use of nukes in standard combat is now SOP. That would be our Great Filter event.
Yes, using a nuke is morphing into standard warfare. This will be that breakthrough.
like I said, it is what it is which is why if he does not step on Nato, we had better not set foot in Ukraine or in Russia.
 

The Mark

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So far he's not directly attacking Western countries in spite of sanctions and robust arming of Ukrainian forces. As horrible as everything he's doing is, he's revealing a distinct recognition of the "old rules."

I'm at "concerned but not worried." After worry comes alarm, at which point I'm going to have to seriously consider how to...um...exit...a world in which there's nuclear war.
Join a Fallout game reenactment group, or create one if it doesn't exist.

A really dedicated group, barring the human experiments part.
 

btthegreat

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Cannot agree more. Even when nukes were first used conventional weapons were still able to kill as many
Here's the thing to keep in mind though. Putin did not create this Russian nationalist political wave, he keeps riding and driving, there are others of similar ilk and we don't know them hardly at all. We don't unnecessarily want to throw raw meat at those piranha either. We need to pay attention to that NATO charter, and we need to make sure we pay attention to what constituties an 'act of war' and what does not. No direct military confrontations.
 
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